I would like to begin by saying that, as a fan of the city of Cleveland and the Cavaliers, I am not happy that LeBron James has decided to blow $50M on a house in Miami to “take his talents to South Beach.”
I will miss rooting for James for 82+ games next year.
I will miss regularly watching one of the most talented athletes the sport of basketball has ever seen.
Will I miss putting up with his shit? Not so much.
With all of that out of the way then, let’s get to the real dirt, and question numero uno:
Why the hell was LeBron’s decision so confusing, especially to Cavaliers fans and Clevelanders?
To start, this was a case where - unlike in the past, as far as the Indians were concerned - Cleveland could actually offer more money than any other team.
In almost every other situation in professional sports history, this would have been enough for a franchise to keep its star.
Many people will tell you that the difference between the two contracts was small when looked at over 5 years instead of 6, and that the lack of a state income tax in Florida meant that LeBron would actually make more money in 5 years in Miami than he would in 5 years in Cleveland.
These people are ignoring the cost of living discrepancy between Miami and Cleveland. I’m sure the Heat contingent conveniently forgot to mention this in their recruiting meeting as well.
Economically speaking then, James’s decision was entirely illogical and therefore difficult to comprehend. For Clevelanders it was worse because we had seen several high profile free agents leave in the past, as the Indians were outbid by the Yankees and the Red Sox. This, however, was a situation where Cleveland could pay the most. The tables had finally turned…
And then it didn’t make a difference.
So what about all of the other factors?
Anyone who listened to LeBron blow smoke for the past 7 years heard him mention the words “Akron,” “loyalty,” “friends,” and “family” a billion times. Above all else, we were led to believe he loved Akron. He loved the home that had been created for him, with his help, because of his unbelievable basketball talent. He made a movie about it. He had Buzz Bissinger write a book about it. He held his first MVP award presentation at his high school. He said he wanted to light Cleveland up like Vegas. He dragged Gisele Bundchen to Akron for a Vogue cover shoot for god sakes.
LeBron loved home…
And then went on to completely disregard it for “The Decision.”
Yet, at the same time, we also heard LeBron say over and over, during his seemingly endless press stops in New York, that the biggest factor in his free agency decision wouldn’t be money. It would be winning. He said this repeatedly, so much so that I basically wrote it off as the kind of thing an athlete says even when it isn’t true, simply because it’s good for his image.
And in an age where athletes routinely go through media training, trust me, this is more often than not the M.O. every time something comes out of their mouth.
But was LeBron actually telling the truth this time?
It certainly seems like he was.
He actually took less money, less than the max, to go and play for a team that he believes - rightly or wrongly - gives him the best shot to win multiple championships.
This is relatively, if not completely, unheard of in pro sports.
Furthermore, LeBron actually took less money to go to a team that already has a superstar. In other words, on some level, he put his ego aside to do what he thought gave him the best chance to win.
Taking less money is one thing, but also acting selflessly (to a certain extent) for the all mighty W?
Wow. When the hell does that ever happen?
Almost never.
In fact, selfishness and greed are the two qualities I most often hear people railing against when they discuss pro athletes. Here we have the MVP of the NBA acting almost completely the opposite of both of those negative traits, and what happens?
He gets crucified for it.
Pretty complicated, right?
And I haven’t even stretched the “home” theme out further. Could it be possible that LeBron sees Wade and Bosh as such great friends that he considers them family? Or maybe Wade manipulated LeBron, maybe Wade told Bosh - or better yet, maybe Pat Riley told Wade - “Hey, just keep telling him you guys are best friends. I’ll pretend I’m the father he’s never had. We can get to this guy….” Home, friends, and family can take on a lot of different forms.
Ostensibly, if LBJ-Wade-Bosh win a championship this year, will we be “treated” to More Than a Game 2, with footage from Wade and Bosh’s free agency tours edited in to a season long documentary about adversity, and how it was these three guys’ friendship that allowed the Heat to win the NBA championship in 2011?
Don’t laugh. I could see it happening. It certainly fits the formula.
In the end, I find myself feeling not only confused about LeBron’s decision, because of how it made almost complete sense and no sense at the same time, but also confused about how I’m supposed to feel about it. In some sense, LeBron did everything we want athletes to do but assume they never will. On the other hand, he acted like an oblivious, narcissistic fool, with almost no regard for things like loyalty, legacy, and the call to greatness.
And that’s why, more often than not, when you see me talking about LeBron James from now on, you’ll see me scratching my head.
I’m not a fan of Bryant Gumbel. In fact, I typically think he’s full of crap. However, I heard a comment that he made on his TV show the other day that made me stop and think for a moment.
Surprising, I know.
So, I tracked his comments down on the Internet today - and found his words just as compelling after reading what he had to say. He explains - mentions names in fact - how winning championships isn’t essential to being revered as an athlete.
So, take a moment to read his post below. Kudos Mr. Gumbel for saying in a few words what LeBron and his cronies couldn’t figure out in 7 years with the Cavs. He would have been legendary - now he’ll be just someone on Wade’s team.
I believe LeBron’s image has taken a huge hit - booed at the Espy’s, booed at Melo’s wedding, scorned by most sports fans.
Yes, it’s better that the patient died, it will be painful for awhile, but its time to move on. We’ve only lost a spoiled superstar - LeBron has lost his legacy and his worldwide fan base.
We’ll recover - but Cleveland sports fans are tougher than LeBron. I not sure LeBron will ever recover his image.
With respect - here’s the comments Bryant Gumbel made at the closing of his HBO show called “Real Sports”.
Holla
Dad
“Finally tonight, a few words about championship rings. Just when did they become the all-important barometer of who does or doesn’t count in sports? When did they supersede personal excellence or exemplary character as a standard of greatness?
I got to thinking about that the other night after the self-anointed chosen one, LeBron James, embarrassed himself as he tried to make his decision to seek rings in Miami sound like a search for the Holy Grail. It’s when he essentially admitted to placing a higher priority on winning than anything else.
LeBron’s decision is typical of our immediate gratification era, but it flies in the face of history. Even though he never won a title, Dan Marino is still the biggest hero in Florida. And in Boston, all those Celtics championships are dimmed by the unforgettable brilliance of Ted Williams, who never won anything. In Chicago, Gale Sayers and Dick Butkus have legendary status despite playing on losing teams. And even in the NBA, where guys seem obsessed with being viewed as “the man,” real men like Barkley, Ewingand Baylor are ringless, but revered.
Despite such evidence to the contrary, LeBron James seems to think he needs a ring to change his life and secure his legacy. Maybe he’ll get one, maybe he won’t, but it’s probable that no amount of rings will ever remove the stench he wallowed in last week. LeBron may yet find that in the court of public opinion, just as putting on a tux can’t make a guy a gentleman, winning a ring can’t make one truly a champion.”
After a discussion with WP48 expert Holland, I realized that I semi-botched my projection of the Cavs’ team performance this upcoming season. I wanted to take some time tonight to correct the analysis.
For those of you actually interested in advanced statistics, the main error involves some of the nuances of WP48. The purest form of the metric involves position adjustments. For example, a point guard’s WP48 performance isn’t weighted in exactly the same way as a center’s. Without adjusting, the metric heavily favors big men because they’re so much more likely to, say, get rebounds and shoot a higher percentage, as well as much less likely to turn the ball over (all important components of the entire scheme).
My source for WP48 was Basketball Reference, which is still a fantastic resource for advanced stats. However, if anyone out there wants to use it, keep in mind that the WP48 figures they give appear to be unadjusted.
OK, with the explanation out of the way, here are the adjusted WP48 totals for the roster hold-overs from last season. I kept all of the other parameters the same as in the original post.
Varejao = .181 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 11.1 wins
Mo = .116 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 7.1 wins
Moon = .191 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 11.7 wins
Hickson = .123 WP48 x 20 mpg x 82 games = 4.2 wins
Gibson = .042 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 0.6 wins
Jamison = .194 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 games = 11.9 wins
Parker = .081 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 games = 5.0 wins
Powe = .000 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 0 wins
Green = .074 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.1 wins
Jawad = -.069 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = -1.1 wins
Telfair = .020 WP48 x 4 mpg x 82 games = 0.1 wins
TOTAL PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 52 wins
So after adjusting for position, WP48 actually projects the Cavs to win one additional game beyond what the unadjusted numbers projected. This is mostly due to dramatically increased ratings for Moon and Jamison. Their gains more than offset significantly lower ratings for players like Mo, Gibson, Parker, Powe, and Jawad.
The other error I made in Monday’s post had to do with the expected error involved in the calculation.
I said at the time that WP48 predicted win totals to about 80% accuracy. I undershot. It’s actually (allegedly) accurate to within 94%. The error range is about +/- 1.5 games. Essentially, what this means is that the 2010-11 Cavs have a 94% chance of winning somewhere between 50.5 and 53.5 games.
Let me repeat that: if no changes are made to the current roster, and the rotation looks something like what I’ve outlined above, the Cavs allegedly have a 94% chance to win at least 50 games in their first season without LeBron. That’s +20 wins higher than what even the most optimistic sports pundit (that I’ve seen, anyway) has predicted for the team next season.
Of course, if Byron Scott chooses to start Jawad at 3 over Moon, this entire projection goes out the window. And I might, too. (Though I live on the first story, so the effect would probably be pretty muted.) But for now, things are definitely looking up.
Now, as I noted in my original post on this topic, I still think we’re running a significant risk in these projections if we only look at the numbers from last season. (Unfortunately, I don’t have adjusted career WP48 numbers.)
One of the points where I split with the WP48 philosophy has to do with synergy, for lack of a better term. The WP48 system assumes that player production is an inherent trait determined by the player’s skill level. In other words, he will produce roughly the same over time regardless of who the other 4 men on the court next to him are, not to mention who the 5 defending him are.
I, on the other hand, believe that a player’s teammates have a significant effect on what he’s capable of doing. For example, a spot-up 3-point shooter gets much better looks if he’s playing with someone on the front line who demands a double-team. Theoretically, he should be more open for his shots and should drain a higher percentage. I would argue that Mo Williams has been a great example of this. In his 2 seasons with the Cavs, he’s shot 43.6% 3P and 42.9% 3P, respectively. In the previous 4 seasons in which he’d played significant minutes with Milwaukee, his career high from beyond the arc was 38.5%. That’s a 4.5-5% uptick since starting next to LeBron.
This will be one of the elements to keep your eye on this coming season. Can the Cavs players find a way to do what they did with LeBron? As Mike pointed out, their current roster has a very low number of guys capable of creating shots for themselves. We’ll see how that affects things, along with the new up-tempo system Scott is already implementing in the Vegas Summer League. (Side note: WP48 disregards pace, so in theory this shouldn’t affect the projected win total. I remain skeptical on this point, but that’s a discussion for another day.)
That said, if things proceed as I expect, I still plan on checking into the over/under on Cleveland’s win total for 2010-11 if I’m in Vegas before the season starts.
All right, I think this is the last numbers-centric post I’m doing for a little while. Pseudo-philosophy, pseudo-psychology, and pseudo-humor back next week.
I’m going to have to wait to put up my post on the complex psychology of LeBron’s decision to go to Miami. Sorry. Movie writing caught up to me today.
A few brief observations…
Yes, it’s only two summer league games, but Sacramento Kings rookie DeMarcus Cousins is out rebounding third year Cavaliers power forward JJ Hickson…
Kyle Lowry will not be a Cavalier. Thank you to the Houston Rockets for quickly matching the offer sheet so the Cavs can look into other options and use that Mid Level Exception money - which would have been placed on hold for Lowry for seven days otherwise…
As much as I am wary of the Cavs replicating the former Milwaukee Bucks backcourt of Ramon Sessions and Mo Williams for psychological reasons, Sessions would be a great value addition to a team that is desperately in need of players who can create shots for themselves and others…
Sessions is also cheaper than Mike Conley in the long run, as Conley will become a restricted free agent after this season, with a $6.5M qualifying offer. I’m sure the Buckeyes contingent would prefer MC though. Totally unbiased, of course…
in Tuesday’s summer league game, it looked to me like Danny Green had taken over LeBron’s role in the offense. This, unfortunately, did not look like something the team wants to continue utilizing in the future…
And I’m spent for now. We really will start writing about something other than basketball at some point in the near future. But, right now, most of the Cleveland-based storylines are happening with the Cavs.
I’m tired. Goodnight, good morning, until next time … thanks for reading.
There are two different Cavs-centric topics that I felt needed to be addressed in some capacity tonight.
1) Goodbye Z, You Were Never Even Allowed To…Oh, You Did Everything But Win It All
I don’t have a lot to say here, other than that Z is the only reason to not resent the 20010-11 Miami Heat. In my personal opinion, it’s ridiculous to begrudge Z for making this move. He’s played for the Cavs for 14 years and even came back after a pride-stinging trade to the Wizards this past season. If the Heat do in fact win the title this year or next (early reports were that Z’s contract with Miami included a player option for the 2011-12 season), I will take consolation in the notion that Z will have finally won his ring. Admittedly, I will still wish that ring had a Cavaliers logo on it. But especially since he has already stated that he hopes to become a part of the Cavs organization after he retires, we here at Mesa wish Z the best.
2) “Who the Fuck is Kyle Lowry?”
Those of you who saw that the Cavs made their first move of the free agency period by signing Rockets back-up point guard Kyle Lowry to an offer sheet may be asking exactly that question.
The answer is: one of the best PGs most of you have never heard of.
First off, any time the Cavs acquire or attempt to acquire a player from Houston, you should automatically feel like it’s a good choice. Rockets GM Daryl Morey is arguably the most advanced stats-centric executive in the league. If you like our perspective on things, you like Morey’s perspective on things.
Lowry is one of those players that the Cavs have had their eye on for years. I remember rumors that they were trying to acquire him dating as far back as his playing days in Memphis, which ended midway through the 2008-9 season. Though not a tall player (listed at 6’ even), he’s not a pushover by any means (175 lb). More importantly, he has been arguably one of the best defensive 1s in the league for the past 4 years. Though my usual source for RAPM doesn’t seem to be loading tonight for some reason, it appears that his 4 year aggregate defense RAPM is right around -2, which is excellent (remember, negative numbers are good in defensive RAPM).
Further, Lowry is a disgustingly good rebounder for his position. Here’s what Mesa favorite Tom Haberstroh had to say about him at the beginning of the free agent season:
To the casual fan, Lowry might seem like another ordinary backup at the point. The 24-year-old former Villanova guard plays like a bulldog, using his rare combination of strength and quickness to overpower his lighter opponents. And he’s one of the best, if not the best, rebounding point guards in the NBA, as his 8.6 percent rebounding rate (percentage of available rebounds a player collects while on the floor) places him second at the position just behind all-timer Jason Kidd. Lowry, who’s just 6 feet tall, may even go down as the best vertically challenged rebounder in the history of the game.
Lowry also does the little things that aren’t captured in the box score. According to Hoopdata.com, Lowry took more charges (51) than any other guard this past season despite playing only 24.3 minutes per game.
The down-side is that Lowry isn’t exactly a scoring juggernaut. He doesn’t shoot particularly well—only 42.1% FG and 26.4% 3P career—but he’s also far from a liability. His True Shooting Percentage (the metric that takes into account 2P, 3P, and FT) is just shy of 54% career; barring an anomalous 2nd year, he’s been over 80% FT for his career. Most importantly, he gets to the line a TON for a point guard. Per 36 minutes, Lowry has averaged 5.7 FTA career. In comparison, Rajon Rondo has averaged only 3.4 FTA career.
Just as importantly, Lowry’s passing game is impressive. His 2009-10 Assist Rate (number of assists per 100 possessions) was 30.52. By comparison, one LeBron James’s 2009-10 AR was 23.42.
Overall, Lowry is a tough, gritty defender; an average shooter, but also a player who knows that his best asset is to attack the rim; and a more than capable passer. In short, he’s exactly the type of addition I would like to see the Cavs make to their backcourt, especially if Byron Scott’s “run on offense / lock down on defense” strategy is going to come to fruition.
Before I get too excited, I should note that the Rockets have stated that they will match any offer sheet to Lowry in free-agency. So we’ll have to wait 7 days to find out if he’s actually coming to Cleveland. But if he is, I personally will be thrilled.
