The Cavs had their official “media day” today, and to call it ‘sobering’ would be an understatement.
No one has been more firm in their stance that the Cavs’ rebuilding is ultimately a good thing for the franchise than we here at Mesa. But it’s one thing to talk about that stance in the immediate days after LeBron’s departure. I’m discovering now that it’s entirely another thing now that training camp is here.
The realization fully hit me at some point last week when I checked the Plain Dealer’s Cavs page. After all these years of pre-season feature articles centered on LeBron’s quest for his first title, the Cavs’ projected strengths and weaknesses against the other would-be East contenders, and other lofty topics, the top story was about the potential impact of…Ryan Hollins.
Ouch.
By no means am I changing my position. The Cavs need to do what Oklahoma City has done over the course of the past few years: use the draft and under-the-radar trades to create a core of young players excited enough about the prospect of playing together for the long haul that the lure of a big free agent contract in another city is minor.
It’s just that, here in the first year of the strategy, accepting the immediate reality is going to take some getting used to.
As much as I want to believe that Byron Scott’s commitment to up-tempo basketball will help soften the blow and at least make the team entertaining, I’m still a wins-and-losses guy at the end of the day. Moral victories in sports don’t mean much in my personal belief system. And as much as I’d like to believe that the WP48-projected ceiling for this year’s team will come to fruition, I’d be lying to you if I said that I sincerely think it will.
From that standpoint, there’s no getting around it: the Cavs are going to be an undeniably, significantly worse team than we’re used to.
On one level, this may sound dangerously close to the type of fatalism you can get from any number of other Cleveland sports blogs. On another, it’s exactly what we always try to do: acknowledge reality instead of hiding behind generalizations and preconceptions. And the reality is that, even if executed perfectly, rebuilding the team from the foundation up is going to take at least three or four years. In all likelihood, we have to prepare ourselves for the fact that at least the next couple of seasons could involve a level of frustration we haven’t known since at least the Paul Silas days.
I’m sure the more pessimistic elements of Cleveland would point out that I should be used to this by now because of the other teams’ failures.
I’m not. This is different.
In the case of the 21st century Indians and Browns, neither team has ever had enough sustained success for expectations to remain at a high level for an extended period. The Tribe has only made the playoffs twice since 2000. The Browns rode to the post-season once in that same time span. In theory, both teams are already in the midst of ‘rebuilding,’ but until I see a significant shift in wins and losses, it’s hard for me to buy into it. That’s not pessimism, it’s just the facts.
By contrast, the Cavs have battled into the post-season every one of the last five years, including a trip to the Finals. We (as a fan base) had also had the luxury of arguably the greatest player in the game on the roster that whole time. Year in and year out, the team always felt like it was on the verge. Barring a catastrophic injury you could print the playoff tickets on the first day of training camp.
Now, the things swirling around the team are doubt, uncertainty, and absence.
Yes, it will be a very different Cavs’ season this year.
However, despite the different atmosphere, the lowered expectations, and in some cases, the anger and depression circling the franchise, the Cavs have another indisputable advantage over the Indians and Browns: they just don’t need nearly as many players to turn themselves around.
Oklahoma City / Seattle won 20 and 23 games respectively in 2007-8 and 2008-9. Last year they won 50. For the next 5 years, they have to be considered in the conversation as Finals contenders.
So as bleak as the state of the Cavs may look at the start of training camp, I promise to try to trust the plan in place and maintain the long-term view. I hope that at least some of you will do the same.
-T
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