First off, in brief, my scheduled post for Tuesday was swallowed by Tumblr rolling out software updates to its queue system (fuckers). Dramatically hurt by this betrayal, I turned to Twitter to lay out the content of my piece in 140 character brush strokes.
You can read those here (scroll down).
Now, to the matter at hand. Some time last night, while watching the MLB playoffs, the following thought came into my head: The Heat should consider trading Dwyane Wade the first chance they get.
I put it on Twitter for all 30 of our followers to see. And now I am here to explain my thinking in more detail.
Dwyane Wade is 28-years-old. He will be about 29 and a half by the time he, LeBron, and Chris Bosh are fighting over the Larry O’Brien Trophy on the floor of the arena in Miami or somewhere out west (probably out west, because the Heat will most likely win the title in 4 or 5 games).
LeBron James, on the other hand, will be only 26 and a half years old. Chris Bosh will be 27 and a couple months. Wade, as many of you know, is often injured. He has missed 103 regular season games in his 7 year pro career. Most statisticians will tell you that by the time a player reaches his late 20’s he is already declining. Injuries will only accelerate that.
It follows then that Wade will never be more valuable than he is right now. And, make no mistake about it, a healthy Wade is very valuable. But that value is decreasing by the game, especially if he can’t stay healthy this season. And his hamstring injury three minutes into the Heat’s first preseason game is a bad harbinger, I think, of things to come. Let’s not forget, Wade said he was feeling banged up before the game even started.
If I’m Pat Riley, I have to be concerned about this. Sure, the team may not absolutely need Dwyane Wade to win the championship this year - but they do need him, or a player of his caliber, to run off three, four, or five titles, maybe even more. And, in my mind, that is exactly what Riley sold LeBron during their multiple meetings over the course of the past year.
You see where this is going. Bill Belichick has made a living off of thinking like this. Trade a player right before he declines, or right as he starts to decline, in order to maximize his value and fleece a hopeful, unwitting competitor like, say, the New Orleans Hornets.
What do you do if you’re New Orleans, and Riley calls you and says, “Hey, I’m willing to give you Dwyane Wade for Chris Paul … what do you think?”
The Orlando Magic, most likely, would turn down a Dwight Howard for Dwyane Wade swap. What about the Utah Jazz? Would they give up Deron Williams? What if the Knicks were to give up Danillo Gallinari, Anthony Randolph, and Eddy Curry’s expiring contract for Wade? That would make free agency in the summer of 2011 even more interesting.
I could toss out more examples, but you get the idea. My overall point is that Riley is in an interesting position. He has a very valuable player who is probably declining. He has two other valuable players - one of whom is the MOST valuable player - who are not yet declining. If Riley can flip Wade for multiple assets that would potentially improve the Heat’s depth immediately as well as their future prospects, shouldn’t he explore that?
I believe he should.
Look, I’m not a moron. I realize the Heat aren’t actually going to trade Wade this season. I assume, however, that Pat Riley and LeBron are cold-blooded enough to go through with it at some point down the road if the situation arises.
These guys don’t want one ring. They don’t even want three. I’m certain that LeBron wants at least seven … and although that’s going to be terribly difficult to accomplish, that doesn’t mean that Riley won’t pull out all the stops to try to get there.
Noted: You like this? I can pretend to be a newspaper writer, too! Anyway, two bullet points…
- I listened to half of the inaugural Byron Scott radio show while I was at the gym today, and I must say that the intro is hilarious. Why? Because the producers use the following quote from Scott: “I’m committed to this organization, to win a championship, and I think this team is right there right now in that position where they can get over the hump.” Now, this is funny to me because I’m almost positive Byron said those words when LeBron was still in town.
- Finally, loyal reader Joseph Hughes of North Coast Zeitgeist fame, proposed this reception for LeBron when he comes to the Q in December. I thought it was worth sharing with you guys. I have to say though, I would definitely not want to be the guy whose fraudulent #23 jersey was retired right in front of a guy who is already one of the greatest players to ever play the game. Talk about an awkward moment. No worries though, I’m sure many, many Clevelanders are far less shy than myself.
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