Exciting opening to free agency week, which officially begins on Wednesday at 12am EDT. Betrayal Skull Dude (Boozer) is likely not going to opt out of his contract after chattering for the past six months about how he definitely would (turns out the only team with potential interest is the Pistons, and he wouldn’t even be at the top of their list). And, in two situations with much more of a direct impact on the Cavs future, Charlie Villanueva is now an unrestricted free agent, and Andy Varejao has not yet opted out of his contract.
We started hearing Villanueva’s name about as soon as the Cavs lost to Orlando in the EC Finals. The reasons are simple. He’s a 6’11” PF who’s athletic enough to play on the wing and skilled enough to shoot from there (34.5% last season with 3.3 attempts per game from three; 32.7% for his career). In other words, at least physically, he can match-up with Rashard Lewis. He’s also young - he turns 25 at the end of August.
I’ve personally had a love-hate affair with Andy over the past two years. In the ‘07-‘08 season I thought he looked awful. In support of that statement is the fact that he averaged a career-high in turnovers and a career-low in FG% although he did actually rebound at a higher per minute rate than at any other point in his career besides his second season. It’s fair to note that he was troubled with injuries during the season and also held out through training camp.
This past season, ‘08-‘09, Andy wasn’t injured and he didn’t holdout, and I thought he was great chasing down loose balls and giving the Cavs extra possessions. He hit a career-high in FG% (he actually attempted more FG per minute in ‘07-‘08, his worst shooting year) but also rebounded at the lowest per minute rate in his career. His steals per minute were down as well, 4th place out of 5 years in the league.
In other words, the stats don’t necessarily support my argument - other than FG% and PER (a statistical measure of per minute overall production) - and, for the former, Andy only took 7.9 shots per 36 minutes, so the difference between 53.6% (his percentage in ‘08-‘09) and 46.1% (his percentage in ‘07-‘08) is negligible on a per game basis.
The Cavs have openly stated that they want to re-sign Varejao. Of course, the Magic said the same thing about Hedo until he asked for more money than they wanted to give him and they traded for Vince Carter. You know never to trust a GM or an agent.
What do I think the Cavs should do?
There were points last year where I truly believed Andy was indispensable. Anyone who remembers Game 7 in the ‘08 EC Semis knows how important extra possessions can be, and his ability to switch on pick and roll defense and guard big men (other than Da-wight) in isolation situations is valuable as is his ability to draw techs on the opposition (free throws = free points).
The question for me is, really, how much do you value these things, and do you place Varejao’s value above - to put it broadly - a more offensive-minded and offensive-capable PF like Villanueva?
The Varejao situation will be more clear at 5pm EDT on Tuesday the 30th - the deadline for opting out - but there has to be at least a fair chance that Andy and his agent Dan Fegan will decide to take the $6.7M he’s set to receive for the ‘09-‘10 season and play the market in 2010 with LeBron and the other heavyweights since there will be more teams with available funds then.
This off-season, the major players are Oklahoma City, Detroit, and Memphis, with some other teams thrown in (like Portland) who will be able to spend. However, in general, I don’t think anyone can guess exactly what the market will be like starting Wednesday because of the “economic tsunami” (as it’s called around these parts) and also because the salary cap has not yet been set.
I’ll wait to weigh-in on the Charlie V. vs. Andy situation until tomorrow night, once Varejao’s status becomes clear - even though it might not come down to an either/or proposition.
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