Free agency has started. Not much info leaking out at the moment. The best tidbit we’ve been able to get is from Rockets GM Daryl Morey, who made a public plea for Rockets fans to email “we want Gortat” messages so he could supply them to Marcin Gortat in the meeting he was about to have with him at 12:01am EDT Wednesday.
The biggest news today as far as the Cavs go was Andy’s decision to opt out - so now he’s in play.
But this was meant to be an opinion piece about Charlie Villanueva, after giving a few tidbits about Varejao’s game yesterday. I was going to break down what Charlie could do for the team, where his strengths and weaknesses lie, and how putting a 6’11” guy at the 4 that can make the three - which is the highest value play in basketball - could affect the offense…
And then John Krolik at Cavs: The Blog did an exceptional job of it before I could get there.
Read John’s piece here.
Without getting too stat heavy, John makes three major points. The first is that, by some measures, Charlie is not a good defender. The second is that he has a very high usage rate. The third is that he can’t finish at the rim - and if he could, he’d be a much more efficient - and therefore better - scorer.
I don’t think we’ll know if Charlie can be a better defender until he gets into the Cavs system. All I can hypothesize is that if the Cavs truly are targeting him they must believe he can be a better defender - or they think the statistical analyses Krolik refers to aren’t valuable. Hard for me to say.
In terms of offense, the usage rate issue is a bit complicated to theorize about. Essentially, it means he’s a play-finisher, in that a very high percentage of his team’s possessions end with him shooting the ball, getting to the line, or committing a turnover or an assist. Generally speaking, there’s one player per team who ranks high in this stat - and last year Charlie was that guy for the Bucks. Obviously, he’ll have to get used to playing differently in a Cavs offense with Shaquille O’Neal and LeBron James at the center.
The most dismaying critique of Villanueva is that he’s not a good finisher at the rim. As Krolik says, his ability to make the three makes him one of the best outside shooting big men in the league, better than a bunch of guys you probably love (like KG and Bosh). What makes him a less efficient scorer is the percentage of successful shots he makes Inside - dunks, close, tips - which is far below average.
How bad is Charlie V. at the rim? I’ll make an easy comparison for Cavs fans…
He’s worse than Sasha Pavlovic.
You can look at the specific numbers for Charlie here and the numbers for Sasha here
Charlie’s almost two percentage points worse than Sasha - and Sasha, who got nearly one out of every five Inside shots blocked, was terrible.
Other comparisons - Pau Gasol…13% better than Charlie…and Varejao 14% better.
Yes, that’s correct Andy Varejao was a better finisher than Pau Gasol last year at the rim.
Which leads into my next two points - the first being that it doesn’t seem like the Cavs are going to want Villanueva to finish around the rim very often, if his major role will be to stretch the floor, and the second being that Andy finished so well around the rim because of a combination of his cutting and because of LeBron.
On Andy’s Inside shots, 79% of them came on an assist (or what would have counted as an assist if he made the basket), while only 55% of Villanueva’s did.
What does this mean?
Think about the last basketball you game watched. When do players (SF’s and PF’s especially) tend to be more successful making shots around the rim - off the dribble or when they catch a pass either rolling to the rim, on a fast break, or when a guard gets into the lane, the help defender slides over, and the simple dish is made?
Easy, the latter.
(LeBron is an exception to this, but we all know what a special player he is when it comes to getting to the rim.)
And Andy took more higher percentage shots Inside than Villanueva did. The potential would seem to exist then for Charlie to get better Inside, since he wouldn’t have to try and create as much or force the action (as his usage rate implies) on a team that already has multiple players who do that.
Ultimately then, I think Charlie has the potential to be a solid, productive piece that can do some things on the offensive and defensive end that enables the system to work better - as long as he can adjust the way he plays. Do I think the Cavs should break the bank to get him? No. Do I think they will? No. Do I think he’s a better piece than Andy? Yes, particularly when considering that his and Andy’s rebounding numbers are very similar, and that some of Charlie’s deficiencies could be limited and his skill set elevated by playing in a system where he has to do less and can stick to making the offensive plays he’s best at making.
Plus, there’s the fact that 6’11” guys who can play down low and on the wing are pretty hard to find.
Salary cap wise, a few things are clear: the Cavs, who will be over the cap once it’s set, have the Mid-Level Exception (expected to be between $5.6M and $5.8M) and the Bi-Annual Exception (around $2.5M) at their disposal. They also have Varejao’s Bird Rights, because he’s been under contract with the Cavs for the past three years, and can therefore go over the cap to sign him.
Another way of putting this is that the Villanueva and the Varejao decisions can be made independent of one another.
Sort of.
The bigger issue is cap flexibility in 2010. If the MLE goes this year, it’s going to be hard for the Cavs to sign, say, Bosh and Bron next year - but I think it’s relatively silly to ignore adding pieces this year when the Cavs can be greedy just to hope that something miraculous happens next year. Plus, in the cases of both guys, they’re young players who can be a part of your core. I’d rather see them give out the MLE in a multi-year deal to a guy who’s 24 than to Rasheed Wallace (not just because he’s old but that’s another story).
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