Here’s a WP48-driven preview of the Cavaliers. The writer of the piece, Arturo Galleti (I thought Mesa reader Holland was supposed to be writing for Dave Berri’s Wages of Wins Journal), figures the Cavs to win 36 games.
We’ll see how close the projection turns out. I suspect it won’t be that close since WP48 doesn’t account for defense when utilized as a predictor of future success. The handy “team adjustment” doesn’t come into play until the games get going.
I think you can sense that I have a lot of reservations about WP48 as a statistical model for selecting players - although I do fundamentally agree with the attributes it places the most emphasis on (scoring efficiently, not turning the ball over, and rebounding). At the same time, the model drastically undervalues shot creation, which is something this season’s Cavaliers may be particularly challenged by.
And finally Arturo - who I’m betting has never been to Cleveland - should have his spreadsheet taken away for saying that Cleveland was “unsurprisingly” labeled the most miserable city in the US by Forbes.
