This may really just be an excuse to reference my earlier, controversy-starting post about the merits of Allen Iverson as a Hall of Famer, but now that it’s official, I wanted to look at what the Memphis Grizzlies will be like with AI playing one of the two guard positions.
I talked about usage percentage in my Hall of Fame post - an estimate of the percentage of possessions a player finishes on offense with either an assist, free throw, shot, or turnover. Historically, AI finishes 32% of his team’s plays - that’s a lot. In fact, it’s #2 all-time.
You can read my previous post if you want to see how this affects Iverson’s team in more detail, but briefly, a high usage percentage isn’t necessarily a bad thing - it all depends on how you’re finishing the plays. With Iverson, the majority of the time it’s him taking a shot - and he’s not a good shooter, so this isn’t exactly a positive.
But what’s really spectacular about Memphis signing AI is how he fits in with the rest of their roster.
Based on career usage percentages, Memphis should be a total cluster-you-know-what of players fighting to finish possessions:
AI: 32.0%
OJ Mayo: 24.5%
Rudy Gay: 24.2%
Zach Randolph: 28.3%
You don’t have to be a genius to realize that those numbers can’t hold with those four players on the floor at the same time - after all, it adds up to 109%.
And, oh yeah, it’s only four players.
Most likely, the fifth guy - if AI starts - will be Marc Gasol - who has a career usage percentage (in one season) of 18.3%.
Five guys wanting to finish 127.3% of the team’s offensive possessions.
There are, of course, a couple caveats to this. The first is if AI doesn’t start, and Mike Conley does instead, the system could be a bit more manageable - Conley’s at 18.2% - the total number then is…oh wait, it’s still 113.5%.
The second caveat is that since assists factor into the usage percentage, then technically speaking there should be plenty of opportunities for two of these five players to get involved in the single completion of a play.
Okay, it’s making more sense now - a few of these players must be high assist guys. Let’s look at their per 36 min assist numbers:
AI: 5.4
Mayo: 3.0
Gay: 1.8
Randolph: 2.0
Gasol: 2.0
Conley: 5.3
You know what, forget I even asked.
Neither Conley or AI is great with assists for a PG, but they’re at least acceptable. Of course, Conley and AI are really only an either/or proposition - and if Memphis runs AI at the 2 and Mayo at the 1 or vice versa, well, I don’t know…they would have to be setting themselves up as one of the worst teams in the history of the NBA for assists.
Some of these usage numbers will have to trend downwards, obviously, and they will - but it doesn’t get away from the truth of the matter: with the signing of AI and the acquisition of Zach Randolph via trade, the Grizzlies officially have a ball-sharing dilemma.
And if you don’t believe me, look at this extract from one of John Hollinger’s online chats:
Elvis (Memphis)
Looking at Memphis Roster (Mayo, Gay, Z-Bo, and if rumours are true, Iverson), it looks like as if opposing teams won’t have to play any defense. Is there any chance that Marc Gasol, their lone efficient scorer, will see the ball this season? Could something magical happen, and this high-volume scorers will take only the good shots from their usually bad selection, and pass the rest? Has the NBA seen any similar team?
John Hollinger (3:20 PM)
If they sign Iverson this will be the most selfish offensive team ever assembled. Griz were already a one-on-one outfit even before getting Z-Bo; add him and Iverson and they may set a record for fewest assists in a season.
For the Grizzlies to have any chance at all, they’re going to have to start Conley - and I don’t see that happening. Michael Heisley, Memphis’s owner, has all but said explicitly that the pursuit of AI is a publicity stunt - hard to grab publicity when you’re not even a part of player introductions.
Let’s be honest, it’s not like it really makes a difference. Memphis was a bad team without AI and they’re a bad team with him. Comparing the two rosters is like comparing Indians teams in the 80’s - when you suck, you suck…it’s not worth putting in the time and energy to determine just how bad.
