About a week ago, I wrote a lengthy rebuttal to Bill Simmons and Chad Ford’s joint argument that the Cavs were a terrible place for LeBron to sign in 2010. Though I felt I did a pretty good job of slashing and burning most of their reasoning, there was one point that I didn’t have time to get into: their conclusion that the LA Clippers were by far the most “intriguing” destination for LeBron next summer.
Here’s what everyone who knows anything about sports knows about the Clippers: they have been the worst-run franchise in professional sports for the past quarter century. If you want specifics, the Clippers have lost 60 games 7 times and 50 games 17 times - all since moving to LA 25 years ago. No one else is even close to that level of complete failure.
However, Simmons and Ford were totally willing to take this coming season’s Clippers completely out of that context. So let’s play the game.
The spine of the Simmons/Ford argument is that the Cavs are a bunch of old role players who have no ability to grow around LeBron, while the Clippers are a stable of young studs who can only rise up with him to become a perennial contender. Is that really the case?
Let’s take a look strictly at the age side of things first.
As of today, the Clippers’ roster has 12 players on it, while the Cavs’ has 14, according to ESPN.com. Here’s how they compare:
Clippers’ average individual player age: 25.9 years
Number of Clippers’ players aged 30 or older: 3
Clippers’ average individual player age of players under 30: 24 years
So they’re pretty young. But let’s look at how the Cavs compare….
Cavs’ average individual player age: 26.9 years
Number of Cavs’ players aged 30 or older: 3
Cavs’ average individual player age of players under 30: 24.6 years
Not exactly the chasm Simmons / Ford would have us all believe, is it? Especially when you consider that the Clippers are carrying two fewer players than the Cavs right now, and anyone LA adds over the age of 24.0 years old will reduce the age difference between the two teams even further.
Obviously, age isn’t the only component here. Talent is the other factor. If the Clippers are indeed far and away a better basketball team than the Cavs, the whole age argument is irrelevant.
Since I’m an obsessive when it comes to facts, let’s go player by player - excluding anyone over the age of 30. (On the Cavs, this includes Z, Anthony Parker, and Shaq. On the Clippers, only Marcus Camby.)
2009-10 CLIPPERS:
1) Rasual Butler: Simmons / Ford touted him as the knock-down three point specialist that the Clippers were lacking last year. Personally, I think it’s ludicrous to even make a statement like this when the team you’re talking about won 19 games. They weren’t one piece away from the playoffs.
But for his career, Butler has shot 37.1% from 3 and 40.3% from floor in general. The 3FG% is slightly below the 39% level we accept as a legitimate three point threat, and the 40.3FG% is just plain putrid. Butler is also one of the Clippers’ two 30 year-olds, so at this stage he’s not likely to improve much.
2) Baron Davis: the other 30 year-old on the roster. Career 40.9% FG and 32.3% 3FG. Averaged 15.5 pts and 3.8 assists per 36 minutes as the Clippers’ starting point guard last season. He had per-36 minute averages of 20.2 points and 4.3 assists in his previous season w/GSW - a contract year, no less. Baron also has a usage rate of 24.7% for his career, meaning he finishes fully one-quarter of all of his team’s possessions. He’s also injury prone. He’s played 50, 67, 46, 54, 63, 82, 65 games in the last 7 seasons – so only more than 54 games in a season 4 times in the last 7 years, w/only two of those being more than 65 games.
3) Ricky Davis: once shot at his own basket in an attempt to get a triple-double. The prosecution rests.
4) Eric Gordon: the Clippers’ great rookie hope. Shot a very respectable 45.6% from floor and 38.9% from 3 in his debut campaign, for an eFG of 52.9%. Averaged 16.8 points, 2.9 ast, 2.7 reb per 36 minutes. Potentially a minor star.
5) Blake Griffin: an unknown quantity in the NBA. I know that everyone already has him penciled in for Rookie of the Year, but let’s keep in mind a few things:
A) The Clippers have a bizarre history of injuries to their players - especially Forwards drafted in the 1st round. (Make sure you at least click the link to see who pointed this out.)
B) Griffin is a guy who smashed his face into the side of a backboard while dunking in the NCAA tourney last year
C) He trains in the off-season with a guy who wears a mask
D) He’s playing for an organization that tried to wow him by taking him to the best steakhouse in LA during his workout visit - only to be surprised once they were at the table to find out Griffin is a vegetarian.
My only point is, let’s not uncork the champagne just yet.
5) Al Thornton: Career percentages: 43.9% FG, 30.1% 3FG, 45.5% eFG. Career averages: 16.5 pts, 5.4 reb per 36 minutes.
However, both his scoring and rebounding numbers dropped from year one to year two (16.8 to 16.2 pts, 6.0 to 5.0 reb), despite that he played about 500 more minutes in his sophomore season. I don’t know a ton about player development, but I know you should be wary of a guy who plays 25% more minutes and sees a decline in his production, especially when he should be making a jump.
Two other things to keep in mind about Thornton: his usage rate is only slightly lower than Baron Davis’s at 23.3%. More importantly, he plays LeBron’s position. So unless the Clippers want to spend a majority of the time playing small with Thornton at the 3, Bron at the 4, and Griffin at the 5, the chances that Thornton would even be around to team with LBJ are questionable.
6) Chris Kaman: 12.9 points and 10.2 reb per 36 in his career. Finishes inside at 58.2% - worse than at least 3 players on the Cavs current roster (Moon, Andy, and Powe), two of whom are bench players. Kaman has also only played a total of 97 games in the past two seasons.
Bottom line: if Bron really wanted to play with Chris Kaman long term, the Cavs would’ve traded for him instead of Shaq in the offseason.
7) Sebastian Telfair: Already on his 4th NBA team before age 25. Shoots under 39% from the floor for his career, including 31.6% from 3. Career PER of 10.6. 19.4% USG. Great to have on your team if you’re making an And 1 video, but if you’re trying to win an NBA title, his value is pretty dubious at this stage.
8) DeAndre Jordan: a second-year Center who averages 10.6 points and 11.1 reb per 36. But he’s also only played 14.5mpg in one season, so the sample size isn’t statistically significant. We don’t really know what’s going to happen with this kid. Does he have potential? Yes, but so do a lot of 20 year-old big men. Very few of them end up making it without some kind of steady veteran guidance from within the organization. Unfortunately for him, he plays for the Clippers.
9) Craig Smith: young bench forward who averaged 16.5 points and 8.3 boards per 36 minutes for his career. Doesn’t shoot 3s (literally - he has NEVER shot a 3 in the NBA), turns the ball over 2.1 times per game. Another “shrug of the shoulders” type player.
10) Mardy Collins: trust me, nothing to get excited about.
2009-10 CAVALIERS:
1) Delonte West: just turned 26. Versatile combo guard renowned as one of the best defenders in the league.
2) Mo Williams: last season shot 43.6% from 3, averaged 18.3 points and 4.2 ast per 36 minutes. Named to the All-Star team as a reserve. Shot 48% and 46.7% overall the past two seasons, with an eFG of 54.8% and 52.8%, respectively. Will turn 27 in December. In other words, he’s far and away a better shooter than anyone on the Clippers.
3) Andy Varejao: one of the most versatile young big men in the NBA. Can play the 4 or 5. By all accounts, an unbelievable team defender. Finishes around the basket at 67.1%, which ranked in the top 5 in the league last season. Turns 27 at the end of this month. Averages 10.3 points and 10.1 reb per 36, so basically the only thing that separates him from Kaman is 2 points per 36 minutes - and I’m willing to bet that Andy adds a hell of a lot more to the team in other aspects.
4) JJ Hickson: largely an unknown quantity in terms of his consistency, but has enough potential that the Cavs refused to package him for anyone other than Amare at last year’s trade deadline. Gifted shot blocker, serious hops. Turned 21 a few weeks ago. Because I’m a dick, it’s also worth noting Bill Simmons’s take on him.
5) Jamario Moon: just turned 29 this summer. Shoots 47.8% from the field for his career, including finishing inside at 75% last season – which led the entire NBA. Arguably the first real alley-oop target Bron has ever had – but also one of the best in the NBA in that regard.
6) Leon Powe: will turn 26 a few weeks before this season’s All-Star break. Per 36 minutes, has averaged 16.3 points and 10.3 rebs for his career. In 2007-8, he was a few decimals in scoring away from a 20/10 per-36 minute average. As noted by John Krolik, Powe’s “draw-foul” rate was only behind Da-wight’s last season (had he drawn enough fouls to qualify.) Powe also had the best offensive rebound rate of all power forwards for 2 consecutive years. An asterisk because of injury, though.
7) Darnell Jackson: barring some astronomical improvement, Darnell is slated to be a career role player. Still, his per-36 minute averages calc out to 8.3 points and 7.2 boards, which is respectable for a reserve.
8) Danny Green: another unknown quantity, though analysts have basically agreed that he was a steal for the Cavs in the second round of this year’s draft. John Hollinger’s analysis (via Waiting For Next Year) is worth reading to get your adrenaline pumping, if you have a little imagination.
9) Boobie Gibson: when healthy, demolishes his counterpart “3 point specialist” on the Clippers. Shot 42% from 3 and 44% from 3 in his first two seasons. Even in his injury plagued 2008-9 campaign, Boobie’s 3 point percentage was still higher (38.2%) than Rasual Butler’s career average, but he also showed the ability to take and make big shots in the playoffs. 23 years of age.
10) Jawad Williams: shot 50% from 3 in the Vegas summer league, was the leading scorer in the D-League during his stint there last season. Could be the infamous “stretch 4” most Cavs’ fans were brainwashed by the traditional sports media into thinking we needed. Has as much potential as any of the non-first round prospects on the Clippers’ roster.
Is there a talent difference? Maybe. But are the Clippers far and away a more talented team? To me, the jury is still very much out.
The other clear advantage that the Cavs have is that they’re an organization with identity and direction. Every player on the Cavs’ roster has an actual role. The Clippers, on the other hand, appear to just be a bunch of dudes.
Part of this may be perception. I’m sure that if Phil Jackson was coaching the Clippers, I’d feel like he had a variety of different ways that he could use the talent on his roster to exploit match-ups and gain an advantage. However, Mike Dunleavy Sr is about as far away from Phil Jackson as you can get without dropping into another species. If he wasn’t, the Clippers wouldn’t have won 23 games in 2007-8 and a pathetic 19 in 2008-9.
At the end of the day, that’s the biggest statistic: wins. Since at least 2005, the Cavs have proven themselves to be an organization with a vision, a functional front office, and a culture of success - even if it hasn’t resulted in the big prize yet. The Clippers, on the other hand, are an oil spill, with their fans occupying the role of all those little baby seals covered in crude.
Even if LA were to go on a miraculous turn-around and make the playoffs this season - which means that they’ll have to win at least 50 games, or more than 2.5x what they won last year - they’re still the Clippers. One good season can’t wash away the stink, unless you’re a complete fool.
For those of you not up on your Stanley Kubrick, the photo at the top of the article was from “The Shining.” It comes from the scene where Jack Nicholson’s character goes to investigate room 237, which was never supposed to be opened because of the evil that lurked there. When Nicholson gets there, though, he finds a beautiful naked woman taking a bath. She comes out of the tub to embrace him - but as soon as he indulges himself, she turns into this…
The beautiful woman would be a playoff Clippers’ team this season. The hag above…the reality of a max contract in Clipperland. Let’s hope LeBron and his advisers aren’t as gullible as some others. I for one am confident that they are.
-T
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