Anyone who watched Monday Night Football tonight saw the debut of Braylon Edwards in a Jets uniform. Considering that his first catch as a Jet went for a touchdown, I’m anticipating that there is probably some degree of bitterness out there in the fan base about the move - especially when you factor in that the receiver the Browns got in return ended up with nothing but drops this past Sunday.
However, draft picks were really at the core of the trade. The Browns received a third- and a fifth-round pick for Edwards, with the third-rounder able to evolve to a second if Braylon crosses some unknown threshhold on receptions. (So, a reminder to everyone that we have to continue to root for Braylon for the remainder of the season.)
Stockpiling draft picks has been the M.O. of the ManKok regime since it took over Berea. In theory, it’s a good idea. But as we’ve discussed in this forum before, it’s only a good idea in practice if the person making the picks can make the right choices.
This of course raises the question: how effective is ManKok at evaluating talent?
I’ve heard a few different columnists crap on Alpha in this regard. The main knock is the selection of Vernon Gholston in the first round last year. Gholston is still on the roster, but it seems to be pretty universally accepted at this point that he was a colossal reach as a top 10 pick and may go the way of the buffalo and / or Gerard Warren.
I didn’t think this was a totally fair shot, though, since the Jets happen to employ an actual GM, Mike Tannenbaum. (You may be familiar with his name on the receiving end of a trade or two relevant to the Browns.) How could we say for sure who chose whom when the clock was running down in the Jets’ war room?
However, I was reading Mesa favorite* Michael Lombardi’s column last week when he dropped this nugget about Tannenbaum:
My sense right now is that Rex [Ryan] is controlling the strings on [the Jets’] personnel moves, as Mangini did when he was in New York. Mike T. is a lawyer and cap person by trade, but he loves to be viewed as a personnel man, which might be a stretch.
[*Note: Lombardi hates Alpha with a fiery passion that makes his analysis of the Browns almost irrational. He’s pretty insightful about the other 31 teams, though.]
If Tannenbaum wasn’t making picks or personnel decisions, we can justifiably look back at Mangini’s three drafts in New York as a barometer for how he’ll do with all the picks he’s accumulating in Cleveland.
Here’s a chart of Alpha’s 3 drafts in the cockpit of the Jets (ha!), starting with 2008 and moving backwards. I’ve color-coded the picks as follows to show where these guys are on Rex Ryan’s 2009 depth chart:
So of the twenty players drafted by Alpha, fourteen of them are still members of Rex Ryan’s Jets. Six of them are starters, with Chansi Stuckey as a starter for the Browns as of this week. Three of those six starters - Nick Mangold, Leon Washington, and Darelle Revis - were Pro-Bowlers in 2008-9. Washington is especially impressive from a scouting perspective because he came out of round 4.
As a side note, Gruden said tonight that Revis is “the most complete player I’ve seen at his age in my entire career,” and I’ve heard several other analysts proclaim that he’s the best corner in the NFL this season.
As a point of comparison, Phil Savage only drafted one Pro Bowler between 2006-8: Joe Thomas, a guy he picked third overall. Ten of the players he drafted are still on the ManKok roster. Six of them are starters, if we count Jerome Harrison and Lawrence Vickers; Kamerion Wimbley, D’Qwell Jackson, Thomas, and Eric Wright are the others. The four surviving back-ups are Brandon McDonald, Ahtyba Rubin, Alex Hall, and Inadequinn (until the Browns move him to the Bills before the trade deadline. Just my prediction).
On the flip side, 12 of the 22 players (55%) drafted by Savage between 2006-8 didn’t make the Browns’ final cut this season. In comparison, only 6 of the 20 Jets (30%) chosen by Mangini during that same span were shown the door by Rex Ryan.
In other words, Mangini’s draft record beats Savage’s on three levels:
1) A significantly higher percentage of the guys he drafted are still productive enough to be on the team’s roster, even after a new head coach had the option to replace them
2) He identified a significantly higher percentage of Pro Bowler-level players (300% more, to be exact)
3) He was able to find less obvious talent in later rounds of the draft (Leon Washington in round 4, Chansi Stuckey in round 7)
Admittedly, I have no idea how Alpha’s record compares overall to the rest of the league. If I really wanted to go deeper into it, I’d probably compare him to Baltimore and New England over those same years, since their personnel departments are widely viewed as the best in football.
But for now, I can rest a little easier knowing that Alpha should be able to use those draft picks he’s stockpiling better than his predecessor would have. It also makes me feel like my hopes that Mack, Massaquoi, Robiskie, and the rest of the 2009 Class of Alpha will turn out to be quality picks over the long haul.
Now let’s see what we can manage to get for Quinn…
-T
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