The ‘09-‘10 NBA season starts Tuesday.
Let’s all say, “Hooray!”
There’s some sense of anticipation that this could be a historically interesting season. The Cavs and Magic are stacked with players that have produced at a high-level in the past. The Celtics, Lakers, and Spurs aren’t very far behind. And depending on how many minutes Andre Miller gets in Portland and if Greg Oden’s health holds up, the Blazers could compete with L.A. and San Antonio for the number one spot in the west. Last season three teams won at least 60 games - this year, I suspect at least four teams will hit that plateau (Cavs, Magic, Lakers, Celtics) and maybe five (San Antonio).
In the East, I believe the Celtics success will boil down to the durability of Kevin Garnett first and foremost. Has KG fully recovered from last season’s knee problems? Will he be able to perform as exceptionally as he has in the past? Age is a big factor with the Celtics, and I’m not sure the trifecta of Ray Allen-Paul Pierce-Kevin Garnett will be able to play enough minutes in the regular season to guarantee the #1 or #2 seed and still have something left in the tank for the playoffs.
Because of this, and with all due respect to my friends at the Celtics blog McHaleHadSweatyPits I feel that the Magic and the Cavs will compete for the top spot in the Eastern Conference.
Seeding is very important to keep track of because it’s the best indicator of whether or not a team will win the title. In the history of the NBA playoffs, in its current 16 team format, only one team has ever won a championship that wasn’t the first or second seed in their conference. This was the ‘94-‘95 Houston Rockets - a #6 seed - that traded for Clyde Drexler in the middle of the season. No #4 seed has ever made it to the Conference Finals in either conference.
It continues to amaze me how little respect the Magic get nationally - I’ve barely heard or seen them mentioned as serious title contenders in the mainstream media. This seems to be a result of the Magic losing Hedo Turkoglu in free agency and replacing him with Vince Carter…which is bizarre, because the mainstream media is all about superstar names. Having said that, they seem to have prescribed much of Orlando’s success last year to Turkoglu playing point-forward and acting as the “engine” of the offense. What people are forgetting, however, is that Turkoglu was a poor shooter last season from the field (41.3%), equivalent to Jamario Moon from 3 (HT: 35.6% | JM: 35.5%), and a lot of the time that he was running the offense through the pick and roll came as a result of Jameer Nelson being hurt. Nelson will be back, of course, and it’ll also be interesting to see whether the addition of Carter and Brandon Bass and the subtraction of Hedo results in Rashard Lewis getting more time at small forward, where he may create slightly less match-up problems, but also where his game is more suited (not much inside play, poor on the glass).
Honestly, between Orlando and Cleveland, I think it’s a coin flip. The Cavs have a historically great player in LeBron James and a bunch of other really fantastic parts. Contrary to popular belief, there’s some legitimate evidence that this may actually be the best team Shaq has ever been a part of (a full post is likely warranted on this), but no one’s going to believe that until the Cavs actually win a championship. Barring injuries, however, I think there’s a very good chance that the team wins more than 66 games this year.
The Western Conference is far less interesting to me for obvious reasons. I’ve already said enough about Portland. The Lakers, I feel, will be worse off without Trevor Ariza and with Ron Artest whose reputation as a defensive stopper at this point in his career is far better than his actual ability. If Andrew Bynum stays healthy, however, that could make up for the “trade” of Ariza for Artest. In San Antonio, much of the focus has been on Richard Jefferson, who will probably get most of the credit if San Antonio’s record improves this season, fairly or not. But also look out for the impact Antonio McDyess has in Texas, as well as Dajuan Blair.
Interestingly, Blair has been crowned the second coming by the mainstream media mainly because of his ability to rebound at a really high rate in a couple of preseason games and in college. This is not the kind of thing that typically happens. I don’t disagree with giving Blair a lot of credit for what he’s produced so far, but I wish this same kind of approach was granted other great rebounders in the league, instead of one guy who became a story because he was passed over in the first round. When analysts act like this is a travesty of the highest degree, they’ve suddenly forgotten the fact that neither of his knees has an ACL.
I assume San Antonio will be the number two seed in the west because Gregg Popovich will manage his players’ minutes on the low side. The Lakers will still likely be number one if everyone stays healthy.
While these are just my opinions on the coming season, I’d like to think that they’re pretty well-informed. Next week, as the season starts, I’ll get into some of the statistical measures we’ll be watching over the course of the year that will help us make sense of what we’re seeing on a nightly basis. Most of the teams employ stats guys, including the Cavs, so it’s helpful for us to try and get more of an insider perspective.
