As a Cavs fan, I have a love / hate relationship with JJ Hickson.
On the one hand, JJ has started to live up to some of his offensive promise since Coldstone inserted him into the starting line-up. On the other hand, he continues to have mental lapses on fundamental basketball concepts like boxing out and spacing the floor, so much so that I some times have to restrain myself from chewing the leather off the arm of our couch during games. (Nothing will make me flip out faster than watching a 2 guard run past JJ to grab an offensive board off a missed free throw.)
But every time I get to this level with him, I ask myself: am I being too hard on JJ? Am I micro-analyzing him because in the past he’s made more mistakes than the other guys on the floor? Or is he really deficient in the areas of his game that I think I have good reason to be frustrated by?
Since there doesn’t appear to be all that much else going on right now in the Cleveland sports galaxy (the Browns blowing a lead isn’t news in my world, regardless of the size of said lead or who they’re playing), I decided to look at what the numbers really tell us about JJ’s performance so far.
A lot of Cavs’ fans have been getting pumped about JJ’s offensive production. The stats that traditional analysts will point to in this regard are the three recent games where he continually topped his career-high in points with 18, 20, and 21 points.
I, on the other hand, would point to stats like these:
Per 36 minutes, JJ is averaging 15.5 points, or 0.5 better than fellow sophomore 4 and Sacramento sensation Jason Thompson. (He’s a good counterpoint to use because he’s been getting a lot of pub as one of the big reasons for Sacramento’s unexpected improvement this season, even from acknowledged stat heads like the WoW guys.)
For the 2009-10 season so far, JJ has an overall eFG% of .673 on “inside shots” (dunks, tips, and shots in the paint combined). He gets blocked on “inside” shots 13% of the time, which is actually a lot lower than I was anticipating (more on this later.)
Though he’s not a power forward, Da-wight Howard is the guy that the average fan would probably look to now as the gold standard for offensive production close to the rim. (This is well-founded. He’s currently leading the league in overall FG% at 62.5%). So how does JJ stack up?
Da-wight’s current ”inside” eFG% is .675. He gets stuffed on 14% of his “inside” shots. In other words, JJ finishes around the rim almost identically to Super Sensitive (which I’m nominating as an alternate nickname for DH starting now.)
One caveat here is that JJ is getting assisted on 80% of his “inside” shots, whereas Da-wight is only assisted on 49%. This tells us that Da-wight is much more able to create his own shot in the paint than JJ. But it doesn’t change the overall results.
JJ is also shooting 60.5% total from the floor, which is pretty hard to argue with on paper. Especially when you consider that last year’s FG% champ was Shaq at 60.9%.
So if you look at all of these stats without ever watching a game, it seems like the sky’s the limit for JJ.
But then there’s JJ’s alter ego, Glitch.
Glitch is the guy who forgets to box out, flubs his assignments on D, and lacks the concentration to avoid stationary defenders in the lane rather than crash through them like an awkward wrecking ball. Glitch is the guy who seems to invalidate the idea that trying to dunk with two hands dramatically lowers your chances of getting rejected at the rim. Glitch is the guy who makes me feel like the father figure in an old-school sitcom where every episode ends with me shaking my fist at the ceiling and shouting, “Gliiiiiiiitch!!!” as a laugh track blares.
In short, it’s Glitch that worries me.
In terms of numbers, JJ was last on the team in offensive (-3.420) and overall (-4.748) RAPM last season. He managed to avoid the bottom slot on defensive RAPM (1.327) only because of Darnell Jackson’s horrendous performance on that front (3.759). I hope that those stats will improve when all is said and done this year, but time will tell. It’s not an encouraging point to start from, other than to say that he’s got nowhere to go but up.
Glitch’s rebounding is another area of concern. Right now, he’s only averaging 6.2 total rebounds per 36 minutes. Jason Thompson, meanwhile, is averaging 9.7 total rebounds per 36. Their rebounding rates tell a similar story: JJ is only coming up with 10.3% of the rebounds available to him, while Thompson is snagging 15.3%. A minor sign of hope is that the discrepancy on their rebounding percentage is much narrower on defensive boards — 15.4% for JJ vs. 17.0% for Thompson — than on offensive boards — 5.1% for JJ vs. 13.1% for Thompson, which is an outright massacre.
That said, I still believe that unless he can shoot 3s at a high percentage, it’s inexcusable for your starting power forward not to average at least 8 rebounds per 36. And since JJ can’t shoot 3s, he better start hitting the glass harder.
A lot of times I write these posts and end up being very surprised by how the numbers counteract my preconceived notions. My Anthony Parker column was a great example of this. However, the JJ / Glitch conundrum is not. Looking at the numbers just reinforces everything that I felt based on watching the games.
That said, if JJ can just get his act together on the basics, he’s shown evidence that he can be a monster on both sides of the ball. His athletic ability is unquestionable. He’s certainly understanding how to operate better within the offense and get open for easy buckets. He can jump out of the gym to block shots. And if he can just remember to box out, his rebounding totals could immediately leap to a zone that puts him at a near All-Star level. And he is still only 20 freaking years old and getting his first real shot at extended minutes.
My hope is that by April, Good JJ will have banished Glitch to some deep dark hole never to be seen again. But as they say, old habits die hard. So roll up your sleeves, young man. There’s work to be done.
-T
