So many things were wrong with the Cavs tonight that it’s hard to decide where to focus. The list of discouraging elements included:
- Anthony Parker putting up a dismal -16 in +/-, scoring 0 points, and generally continuing to be a defensive liability to the extent that Stephen Jackson (his assignment) was demanding a double team for much of the game
- Glitch living up to his nickname by only managing to grab a single rebound and taking only two shots from the field in 20+ minutes of action
- The Cavs’ combining to go 6 of 28 (21.4%) from beyond the arc.
- Lebron allowing himself to be taken completely out of the game by a couple of early offensive fouls, followed by 6 TOs
But hanging over all of this, I thought, was the turnover problem.
Brian Windhorst attributed a lot of tonight’s poor play to the Cavs’ general discomfort from having Shaq back in the line-up. Tonight, as we all know, was Diesel’s first game back out of the last 7. In his extended absence, the Cavs seemed to adjust their game to maximize the strengths of the players they had — particularly on offense, where we were seeing a lot of ball movement and a lot of assists — 25 vs. Utah, 24 vs. Golden State, 21 vs. Washington, 20 vs. Philly, 20 vs. Detroit.
For comparison, anything over 20.7 AST / gm is above average in the NBA at this moment. Toronto is 15th in the league with a 20.7 AST / gm average, and Boston leads the league at 24.9.
But with Shaq back on the floor and the Cavs forced to adjust to him again, tonight was the Cavs’ lowest team assist total (14) since their win against Indiana (15). They looked completely out of sync for much of the game and coughed the ball up 16 times.
I was expecting that during the Shaqless stretch, the Cavs’ turnovers were down. But they weren’t. Only two of the last 7 games involved a Cavs’ TO total lower than the teens — 10 against Philadelphia and 12 against Utah.
The Cavs currently rank 15th in the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio. In comparison, Boston is 2nd, Atlanta is 4th, the Lakers are 9th, and Orlando is 14th.
But the Cavs also rank 9th in the league in fewest turnovers per game. (Atlanta is 1st, with Orlando tied for seventh with New Orleans. Boston is 12th, and the Lakers are 18th.)
Then again…the Cavs are currently ranked 17th in the league in Turnover %, which I’d guess is the most relevant of all the turnover-related stats, since it takes into account the number of possessions instead of just a raw per-game total. In this category, the only potential contenders ranked lower than Cleveland are Portland at 18th and Boston at 20th.
And yet, even after tonight’s discouraging effort…the Cavs went up the charts on the Turnover % rankings.
Likewise, there are several terrible teams (Detroit, Chicago, NY) ranked higher than the Cavs on the Turnover % list. So what the hell is going on here?!
I’d have to do a much more extended analysis to be sure, but at this point, it doesn’t look like AST: TO ratio, straight turnovers, or turnover % by themselves are a great indicator of on-court success. Rather than say that TOs aren’t important, though, I’m guessing that the bigger issue is that as long as your team isn’t horrendous in that category, they can overcome the negative effects by shooting a high percentage, rebounding well, and forcing TOs either through steals or taking charges or just “good” defense.
I’m sure that the WoW guys have a post about this somewhere, since the idea of giving up possessions is a major consideration in their system, but I couldn’t find anything on just this single topic when I searched tonight.
I will say that even if there doesn’t seem to be any real, direct statistical relationship between TOs and wins yet, I feel pretty confident that any time a team’s assist total is lower than its turnover total, it indicates a problem. Especially when that team is getting trounced by its opponent in both categories. Tonight, that was the case for the Cavs, as Charlotte had 19 ASTs and only 10 TOs.
I still blame the inconsistent rotation for a lot of the problems the team is having in this area. The real problem if Shaq gets injured isn’t that the Cavs won’t be able to win in the regular season while he’s gone — it’s that they’ll have to keep adjusting and readjusting as he disappears and reappears in the line-up. I remain a big believer in the idea that players need to feel comfortable in their roles in order to produce to the best of their ability. And if the rotation continues to change — especially with a piece as major as Shaq, who alters the entire way they play their game offensively — we’re going to keep seeing games like this over the course of the season.
Let’s see how they bounce back against Dallas on Saturday night. And if you’re watching, join me in trying to keep the Cavs’ TO problems in context.
-T
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