One thing that drives me crazy about most sports analysts is their ignorance or unwillingness to discuss context. I’m eyeing a more in-depth post about this early next week, but for now, let’s take a step back from micro-analyzing this one Cavs’ game to see how their competitors in the East have been doing.
After tonight’s win, the Cavs are 20-7 and have sole possession of the third seed in the conference. They’re percentage points behind the 19-6 Atlanta Hawks for the #2 spot and have the same number of wins as the first-place Celtics, who have played 2 fewer games. The Magic are currently #4 with a 19-7 record.
For all our nitpicking about the content or style of the victories, the Cavs have now put together a 5-game winning streak to rebound from the ugly back-to-back losses to Memphis and Houston.
Meanwhile, Boston’s winning streak was snapped tonight on their own home court by Philly. Certain high profile fans of theirs took enough time out from watching “Jersey Shore” to blame the loss on the refs’ ejecting their 6th man. Yet in their 12 home games to date, the Celtics are just 8-4. The Cavs, meanwhile, are 11-2, with only the 12-2 Hawks above them by virtue of having played an additional game at Philllips Arena.
While I was bitching about the Cavs only beating the Nets by 10, the Magic got obliterated by the Heat in Miami, 104-86, with Dwyane Wade sitting the entire 4th quarter. At one point in the first half the Heat led by 29 points. (Mind you, this was a mere two games after the visiting Memphis Grizzlies demolished Miami by 28.)
The Cavs are also 5-1 in division play — the same division record as the Celtics. The Hawks are .500 within their division at 2-2, the Magic are 3-2. Perhaps most surprising, both of those two teams are behind the Heat at 4-2.
In their last 10 games, the Cavs are locked up with Atlanta for the second-best record in the conference at 8-2. Only Boston is ahead at 9-1. Orlando is a game back of the Cavs and Hawks at 7-3.
If we widen the lens to conference play, Orlando is the #1 team at 15-4, with one of their 4 losses coming in Amway Arena to the Cavs. Boston is #2 at 13-4, the Cavs are #3 at 13-5, and Atlanta is #4 at 10-4.
In terms of efficiency differential, Boston leads the conference at +9.2. Atlanta comes in second at +8.8. The Cavs are third at +5.5, barely edging Orlando at +5.4.
What do all these numbers mean? It’s really hard to say without a more in-depth look. For instance, how do the different divisions within the East compare to one another competitively? Is the Cavs’ 5-1 Central Division record more impressive than Boston’s Atlantic Division record because the teams are better? Who’s had a tougher schedule against the West so far?
One consistent conclusion to draw, though, is that the Cavs are indeed playing with a favorable chance to win the conference in the regular season. Obviously, there’s still two-thirds of the season left to play. But while I’m not going to encourage everone to go rushing to the standings to keep an eye on Boston, Orlando, and Atlanta at all times, it’s a good reminder not to get high or too low without understanding the context. Because for every frustrating game the Cavs have, there’s more than likely something equal or worse happening to one of the other “elite” Eastern teams.
Cavs go to Dallas to play the Mavericks on Sunday. Dirk a possible scratch due to an ugly injury in tonight’s game, where he ended up with bits of Carl Landry’s broken teeth in his elbow(!). The next two weeks will be a very interesting measuring stick, as the competition on this road trip (Dallas, Phoenix, the Lakers) is stiff, followed by a rematch with the Rockets and a home-and-home with Atlanta right before New Year’s. Let’s see where they end up at the dawn of 2010.
-T
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