Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus broke down the Cavaliers frontcourt pairings using +/- data, as part of a preview for tomorrow’s game against the Lakers.
I think this is pretty interesting.
Frontcourt ORtg DRtg Net
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Hickson-Ilgauskas 102.8 109.4 - 6.6
Varejao-Ilgauskas 113.5 98.6 14.9
Hickson-O'Neal 105.6 109.7 - 4.1
Varejao-O'Neal 104.8 97.6 7.2
Hickson-Varejao 132.4 105.3 27.1
James-Varejao 115.7 94.2 21.5
ORtg is points scored per 100 possessions. DRtg is points given up per 100 possessions. Net is the +/- figure … a positive number is good because it means the Cavs are outscoring their opponent.
The Cavs overall ORtg is 111.4 (8th in the NBA) and their overall DRtg is 104.3 (5th in the NBA).
Essentially, what the +/- stats show is that any time Hickson is on the floor the Cavs defend poorly, and any time Varejao is on the floor, they defend incredibly well … unless he’s playing at the same time JJ is.
Obviously, it’s cheating to not look at who’s in the backcourt with JJ when he’s playing, nor is it fair to ignore the fact that he’s rarely in the game in the fourth quarter, when the Cavs typically decide they want to play defense … I’d go into all of this in more depth, but it’s Christmas Eve.
My point, really, is twofold: we get some kind of indication, I think, about JJ as a basketball player right now when looking at these stats, combined with his WP48 numbers as well (which are below average and have not improved from last season).
The Hickson-Varejao frontcourt combo does, however, have the highest overall +/- rating at 27.1, namely because they are insane on offense, scoring over 132 points per 100 possessions.
Secondly, I believe these numbers speak volumes about the future, meaning next year when Andy will most likely be the Cavs starting center. While it’s unclear that the team will have anyone left to be able to bang with Butterscotch Howard and Andrew Bynum, if they get a player who’s better offensively and defensively than Hickson to start next to him, then that line-up could be a monster.
