It’s just past midnight Pacific as I start writing this column, which means that in approximately 16 hours the Cavs will face off against Gilbert “Castor Troy” Arenas* and the Washington Wizards at the Q. (*Note the specific weaponry TMZ alleges Gil had in his locker, or else the reference won’t make sense.)
At present, the Wizards are a dismal 11-21 and last place in the Southeast division. However, they are 1-1 in the season series with the Cavs this year. They also hold the series efficiency differential lead to date at +5 (Cavs won game one by 12 on November 3rd; Wiz won game 2 by 17 on November 18th) — not that anyone but me is keeping track of this.
Last season, the Wizards split the 2008-9 season series and joined the Celtics and Lakers as the only teams to beat the Cavs twice in the regular season — all this despite ultimately winning only 19 games total. It’s also worth noting that one of the Cavs’ two wins against the Wiz that same season was the down-to-the-wire game on Christmas day 2008, where both Castor Troy and Brendan Haywood were scratches from Washington’s line-up.
Why am I mentioning all of this? To point out that despite their identity during the other 78 games of the regular season, the Wizards have shown time and again that they play with a different level of intensity against the Cavs — and that as a result, they can win games that they would seem to have no right to win. (Mind you, I still expect the Cavs to emerge on top tonight, but I know that if they don’t bring their “A” game, it’s entirely possible that they will get punked. And if they do, absolutely no one should be surprised by it.)
This presents an interesting phenomenon: the impact of effort on performance.
It’s no secret that the Wizards view the Cavs as hated rivals, despite that the Wizards have never beaten the Cavs in any consequential way (e.g. a playoff series). Last year interim head coach Ed Tapscott stated, “We get prepared to play against [the Cavs], probably like no one else.” I’d say he’s right.
In short, there’s an argument to be made that in this match-up, you throw out both teams’ records as any kind of indicator of who will win. The reason being, of course, that the Wizards play the Cavs differently than they play the other 28 franchises in the league — not in terms of strategy, but in terms of effort.
Some stat-heads would claim that this idea is either erroneous or inconsequential, that the innate skill levels of each player on each team will be the one and only determining factor of who wins this game. Further, if the Wizards happen to win, it’s because of a statistical anomaly, much like how Mike James’s body was temporarily piloted by Pete Maravich during that 2008 Christmas day game.
At a certain point, though, the question becomes: when does a statistical anomaly stop being an anomaly and instead become a meaningful trend?
In other words, if the Wizards continue to play the Cavs more competitively than they play the rest of the league, at what point can we start to build a statistically sound model that shows that, in certain instances, effort can indeed affect outcome in a significant way?
I don’t have a good answer for this. But it’s a question that I’m fascinated by.
Interestingly, this “effort effect” has been perceived in individual player performance, particularly when it comes to players in contract years. For instance, the always-interesting Malcolm Gladwell discussed the phenomenon through the lens of Erick Dampier in an exchange with revered “Rocky” historian Bill Simmons a while back. (Scroll down to Gladwell’s answer that begins “This is one of my favorite topics.”)
However, some of the advanced metrics would argue that Dampier’s performance has been both better and more consistent than Gladwell would have us believe, especially since his move to Dallas. In other words, depending on what numbers you use, it’s possible to argue with good evidence that the effort effect in individual performance is a hologram. So why would it be any more relevant in a team situation?
I’d have to look back at more players in contract years to see if the effort effect really seems to be a mirage in the individual realm…but I’m not going to do that now. And I have no strong strategy for how to even attempt to examine the idea from a team perspective. But when you watch how the Wizards play tonight, keep this question in mind and let me know what your reactions are.
-T
