Cavs pulled off another “we’re thankful the clock ran out when it did” victory tonight. They are now 3-0 without Mo Williams in the line-up and 2-0 without Delonte West. Their average point differential in those three games is +2.67, which includes one point wins over Miami and Oklahoma City.
It looks a lot like the Cavs are having problems winning without Mo … or is it really that they’re having problems winning without Delonte?
As the trade rumors begin to fly and mid-season reports come in, we can better evaluate where the Cavaliers stand, and where they should look to improve.
Before I started looking at the stats, I was less concerned about the Cavs future than I am right now.
I knew the team wasn’t getting much from Anthony Parker or J.J. Hickson (who was back to his usual low-rebounding self tonight: 1 board in 13 minutes). I also realized that Shaq was best-suited as a match-up player. I knew it hurt big-time to not have Delonte playing at his full capacity. And I also understood that LeBron was having another monster year - and when a player has monstrous, historic seasons they carry their team.
But I had no idea Mo Williams has essentially been ineffective.
Here are the numbers:
WP48: .091 (Below Average)
PER: 16.3 (Slightly Above Average)
Adjusted +/- ‘09-‘10: -3.56
And here’s an interesting statistic - with Mo on the court, the Cavs play 5 points better than average. With him off the court, they play 11.3 points better than average.
This means that Mo’s net on/off court +/- number is -6.3.
I think this is one of those spots where stats can be tricky. Mo is such a streaky shooter that I bet if I had the time to go back through the entirety of the Cavs season so far, we’d see big swings in his production and his +/-, some games he lights up the moon, and other games he sinks in the ocean.
In those latter games, Bron has to carry the offense.
I realize that I sound exactly like a typical national pundit when I write that … which is why I was so surprised to see that the Cavs are starting 4 players with below average production numbers and only 4 Cavs players in total have positive net on/off court +/- numbers: LeBron (+17.0), Andy (+19.5), Z (+3.3), and Delonte (+1.9)
What all of this suggests to me is that the Cavs are going to be vulnerable to close games in the playoffs. And we all know how those go … you want as few games as possible to come down to made free throws and missed fadeaway jumpers. Although the Cavs will win a lot of those games because of LeBron’s superior play - like ridiculous steals on ridiculous behind-the-back passes - they won’t win them all.
I’m going to wait a week or so to be completely convinced, but I’m becoming more and more convinced that the Cavs need to make a trade for a player who can create his own shots and play strong defense. And there’s one guy out there who fits the bill:
Andre Iguodala
As @WojYahooNBA reported earlier, the Sixers are pushing the Cavs to take him off their hands.
