As Mike pointed out on either his Twitter or Facebook feed earlier this week, we have now officially entered the stretch of the NBA season where the trade deadline becomes a constant presence in our daily lives.
When I wake up in the morning, I check Twitter for any new chatter from Brian Windhorst, Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports, Ric Bucher, or Marc Stein. (This is literally the first thing I do — get up, turn my alarm off, grab my Blackberry, lie back down with Ubertwitter open, set my alarm for another 5 minutes in the event I fall asleep again, and start scrolling.)
When I go online to get ready to write a post for this blog, I stop myself and check the Plain Dealer’s Cavs website and ESPN to make sure I’m not oblivious to any breaking deal news.
When I bring some floozy back to my apartment to get some satisfaction, I leave NBA TV on in the background so I’m sure not to miss any critical updates. (Actually, this is a lie. I only bring classy ladies back to my apartment.)
At the moment, there are no deals of consequence happening, unless you consider the Hornets sending Bobby Brown to the Clippers for cap space or the Bulls agreeing to swap Aaron Gray for Devin Brown to be consequential. But there’s an endless stream of analysis regarding the rumored trades. Amar’e rules the airwaves right now. He’s still in a Suns uniform, but that doesn’t stop anyone (including us) from discussing where he could go next, what it would take for the Suns to turn him over, how good a fit he would be with each new team, etc.
And if you get past Amar’e’s name, there’s still whisperings about Chris Bosh being dealt to a contender like the Lakers or a wannabe like the Bulls. A week ago, you would’ve thought that Bosh for Bynum was just waiting for league approval.
In my experience, all this chatter strongly suggests that neither of these guys is going anywhere. And it virtually locks down that neither will be coming to the Cavs.
Here’s the thing: every major trade NBA trade that I can remember has happened like a stroke of lightning. No dramatic lead-up. No weeks of analysis and wheeling and dealing — at least not in a forum that the public has access to. Billups for AI? Came like a thief in the night. Richard Jefferson to the Spurs? Literally no one reported that until it had already happened. Shaq to the Cavs? No sources that I saw even broadcast that a deal was being seriously discussed by those two teams before the morning of last year’s deadline. Obviously, the trade didn’t happen then. But when talks reignited prior to this year’s draft, it happened suddenly, and in a matter of a couple of hours after news of the discussions got out, the deal was done.
Now, meticulous internet research could prove that my memory of these deals is inaccurate. Maybe I just wasn’t as hooked in before, or maybe I wasn’t paying attention to the right sources. But overall, I trust my instincts on this one.
And I especially trust them when it comes to Danny Ferry.
I’m going into all of this to try to properly calibrate everyone’s expectations between now and February 18th. I feel like 85% of Cavs fans have been acting like a trade for Antawn Jamison has been inevitable since the Wizards first started limping through the autumn leaves. Never mind that the Cavs are the last team in the league the Wizards’ brass would want to make a deal with. Never mind that it would be easier for Washington to ship out Caron Butler or Mike Miller and a couple of role players in order to take just as much money—or more—off their payroll. (Jamison makes $11.4M this year; Butler and Miller both make $9.8M; DeShawn Stevenson, absurdly, makes $3.9M, which is a microcosm of why the Wizards are so screwed up). The sports media has been egging this particular fantasy trade on, and with the exception of John Hollinger, no one has stepped in to tone it down.
If I were a betting man (I’m not), I’d be much more willing to put my money on the less actively touted trade possibilities. I still believe that Troy Murphy is the most likely to end up in a Cavs uniform by mid-February, but even that scenario has been discussed enough that I’m beginning to doubt it. And despite how it’s being portrayed by the few sources who have even mentioned it, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Andre Iguodala on a plane to Akron-Canton soon. I might then do a backflip en route to the nearest liquor store to cop a bottle of cheap champagne.
A big part of my reasoning process here has to do with Danny Ferry’s record as GM.
Since his arrival in the front office, every major move Ferry has made has been shrouded in secrecy until the last possible moment. The Ben Wallace / Delonte / Hot Potato trade blindsided everyone literally as the deadline expired in 2007. The heist of Mo Williams from the Bucks came out of nowhere in the dead zone prior to training camp in 2008. The acquisition of Shaq happened with minimal advance warning in 2009. The offer sheet to Jamario Moon caught everyone napping in the late summer.Not that it was the same caliber as those other moves, but even the signing of Larry Hughes in the summer of 2005 shocked the sports world.
Why would Ferry suddenly begin operating differently in 2010?
In fact, Ferry’s movements have been so shrouded in professional secrecy that I motion to nickname him after the most entertaining secret assassin in pop culture history: Golgo 13.
For those of you unfamiliar with Golgo 13, either from the two Nintendo NES games or from the Japanese manga from which those games were adapted, here are a few of Golgo’s characteristics (just substitute “trade” any time you read “job” or “target”):
-Will not shake hands under any circumstances, even if the other party is a client or a child.
-When under cover of darkness, will keep moving to hide his position, even if not in the midst of a job.
-Reflexively attacks at the sound of a handbag catch being opened, even if not in the midst of a job.
-When checking out of a hotel, extensively cleans forensic traces of his presence, including disposal of his own trash.
-Often hires a prostitute or otherwise has sex before a job.
-Kills without hesitation anyone who lies to him, betrays him, or may pose an imminent danger to him before a job (regardless of the offender’s rationale)
-When he kills the above, said people must die by his own hand. Suicide is not allowed.
-Journalists who try to write an article on him, or people who try to uncover his identity, will be given one warning. Those who back off will be unharmed; those ignoring the warning will be killed.
-Rumored to have once assumed a sniping position in a nest of coral snakes 72 hours before target, and once in total darkness 120 hours before target. A command of self-hypnosis is inferred.
If there was ever any doubt that I think highly of Ferry, I think it’s safe to say those doubts can be laid to rest.
Now, if in three weeks, Golgo is holding a press conference with Antawn Jamison in front of a Cavs banner, I’ll humbly eat crow on this whole thing. But I would personally advise everyone to be open to the strong possibility that a trade we never heard coming is the one that gets us—not in a coffin, but to the title. And that, in my opinion, is what helps make this time of year so exciting for Cavs fans.
As for the rest of the league, watch your backs. There’s a professional on the job.
-T
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