Since Shaq is doing his best to make this game about him vs. Da-wight Howard, I thought it might be interesting to try to see how consequential the Diesel’s presence has been on Da-wight’s performance. To do that, let’s compare Da-wight’s play against the Cavs this year to what he did in the pre-Shaq era, specifically the Eastern Conference Finals.
DA-WIGHT STATS: 2009-10 Regular Season Vs. Cavs
2/11/10 vs. Cavs - 31 min, 19 pts on 6-9 FG and 7-10 FT, 11 reb, 2 blk, 5 fouls
11/11/09 vs. Cavs - 32 min, 11 pts on 3-3 FG and 5-12 FT, 7 reb, 1 blk, 5 fouls
2009-10 AVG vs. Cavs - 31.5 min, 15 pts on 75%FG and 54.5%FT, 9 reb, 1.5 blk, 5 fouls
DA-WIGHT STATS: 2009 Eastern Conference Finals Vs. Cavs
ECF Game 6 - 41 min, 40 pts on 14-21 FG and 12-16 FT, 14 reb, 1 blk, 5 fouls
ECF Game 5 - 37 min, 24 pts on 8-10 FG and 8-13 FT, 10 reb, 1 blk, 6 fouls
ECF Game 4 - 49 min, 27 pts on 10-16 FG and 7-9 FT, 14 reb, 3 blk, 5 fouls
ECF Game 3 - 28 min, 24 pts on 5-8 FG and 14-19 FT, 9 reb, 0 blk, 6 fouls
ECF Game 2 - 38 min, 10 pts on 3-8 FG and 4-8 FT, 18 reb, 2 blk, 4 fouls
ECF Game 1 - 38 min, 30 pts on 14-20 FG and 2-2FT, 13 reb, 0 blk, 6 fouls
2009 ECF AVG - 38.5 min, 26 pts on 65%FG and 70%FT, 13 reb, 1.2blk, 5 fouls
As usual, the caveat here is that we’re looking at a very small sample size. If we’re willing to accept that, though, the most dramatic differences in the comparison are in minutes, points, and rebounds. Da-wight is averaging 7 fewer minutes, 11 fewer points, and 4 fewer rebounds per game against the 2009-10 Cavaliers than the 2008-9 squad. (Sidenote: he’s also about -16%FT this year. Although it’s dubious to attribute that to anything the Cavs are doing, it highlights the notion that Da-wight’s shooting +10%FT higher in the ECF than his career average could actually have been the single most significant offensive factor in determining the winner of that series.)
I don’t have the wherewithal to try to convert these totals to per-36 minute numbers, but even if I did, I wouldn’t necessarily want to. This is because the minutes Da-wight is playing become significant in a different way: namely, regardless of his rate of production, how long is he able to stay on the floor against the Cavs’ new line-up?
Historically, Da-wight has problems with other true big men. He doesn’t like to be roughed up. He doesn’t like to play physical. Even though he’s not fouling any more (in terms of per-game totals) when he has to play part of the time against Shaq, the numbers suggest that on average, he’s racking up those fouls more quickly. Remember, for all their off-season additions, the Magic still only have two centers and, to my knowledge, almost never go small enough to warrant leaving both Da-wight and Gortat on the bench.
So if Da-wight’s minutes are down against the Cavs, the most likely explanation is that Stan Van is feeling forced to pull him quicker due to foul trouble. The facts seem to bear that out. Da-wight had 3 fouls by the 8:22 mark in the 2nd quarter of tonight’s game, forcing him to sit out the remainder of the half. It was a similar situation in the first game, too.
Does this surprise me? Not really. But it indicates that the biggest reason (literally) that “The Great Danny Ferry” felt he had to get Shaq is, in fact, working as planned.
Win streak: 13. Days to trade deadline: 6.
-T
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