Well, the orthodox Cavs fans got what they wanted. Antawn Jamison is officially a Cleveland Cavalier.
If you’re a regular reader, you shouldn’t be surprised to hear that I have very mixed feelings about this one. Admittedly, part of this has little to do with Jamison and much more to do with how the non-acquisition of Stoudemire affects the rest of the NBA landscape.
For now, though, let’s talk Jamison.
The good news is that this deal is another Danny Ferry special. Over the past three years, I would argue that no front office in the league has done a better job of leveraging their assets to create lop-sided deals than the Cavs’. This trade is no different. To bargain Ernie Grunfeld down to taking only Z’s contract and the Cavs’ 2010 first rounder (which, in all likelihood, should be no higher than #29 overall) along with the pieces provided by the Clippers, is commendable. It keeps both JJ and Danny Green on the roster, giving them time to further develop and (hopefully) become consistent future impact players.
The bad news is that today, Antawn Jamison is already 33 years old. This means that Ferry’s two trades of consequence from this season have brought in two players with a combined age of 70. Not exactly the age bracket I was hoping the team would use to upgrade. It feels a little Celtics / Spurs-like, and those are not necessarily two teams that I want the Cavs to bear a resemblance to (at least in this regard. The banners would be nice.)
The good news is that, if sources are to be believed, Jamison is the guy that LeBron specifically told the front office to go out and get this season. Jamison fits the bill of the coveted “stretch 4” that Bron must believe will shore up one of the Cavs main offensive weaknesses. Well, the front office got him. In theory, this should make LeBron a very satisfied man.
The bad news is that, as Tom Haberstroh detailed in an article we linked to earlier this week, Jamison had better be stretching the defense out past the three point arc, because his mid-range game is dreadful. He’s hitting 10-15 footers at a ghastly 35%, and 16-23 footers at 38%. For reference, his 3PT% is 34.5% this year, which is right at his career average and not exactly blistering. So he shoots essentially the same from distance as from 10-15’. This really begs the question of why he would ever shoot a jumper from 10-15’.
The good news is that Jamison finishes effectively in the paint—63.6% on shots “at the rim” and 47.3% from 10 feet and under. And the reality is that those mid-range numbers quoted above are still monumentally better than JJ’s (28.4% on all jump shots this year. Yikes.)
The bad news is that for the offensive advantages he may bring, there’s evidence to suggest that Jamison *could* be even more of a defensive liability than Glitch. Which, even as I write it, seems like I have to be making it up. But as John Krolik points outs in his own detailed trade analysis:
Over the last few years, the Wizards give up around 112 points per 100 possessions when Jamison is on the floor. That’s really bad. I was concerned about Stoudemire’s defense, and the Suns have historically given up around 108 points per 100 possessions with Amar’e on the floor. A big reason for getting Jamison was because of how bad Hickson has been defensively, and the Cavs give up around 109 points per 100 when Hickson plays.
The good news is that the Wizards have never been anything remotely resembling a good defensive team, so it’s hard to tell how much of that has really been Jamison’s fault. In fact,there’s even reason to believe that Jamison’s defensive numbers will improve—maybe even dramatically—when he’s plugged into the Cavs’ rotation. Kevin Arnovitz wrote an excellent article about this phenomenon during the Cavs’ domination of the first two rounds of last year’s playoffs. In case you don’t want to read the whole thing, here’s the most consequential section (keep in mind the first paragraph is just for context, since those numbers obviously don’t apply to this year’s team):
Cleveland has whittled its 99.4 points/100 possessions defensive rating (3rd best out of 30), down to a minuscule 90.8/100 in its two postseason series. Granted, Atlanta and Detroit weren’t exactly offensive juggernauts, but their respective offensive ratings in the regular season of 106.6 and 104.5 suggest that the Cavs are tightening their defensive vise with brutal efficiency.
The Cleveland roster isn’t composed of guys you’d immediately classify as defensive stoppers. With a defensive rating in the 104 range (number of points allowed per 100 possessions as an individual defender), Delonte West has been rightfully praised for his defense. West’s defensive ratings in the four seasons prior to this one? 107, 107, 108, 108. As a Milwaukee Buck, Mo Williams had a reputation as a horrendous defender (and the numbers to prove it), but for Cleveland this season, he’s been downright gritty, and his defensive rating dropped from 114 to 106. Did Williams just miraculously grow defensive fangs? Even Wally Szczerbiak, Ukrainian for “has lost some lateral quickness,” is posting career-best numbers in various advanced defensive metrics. Nothing eye-popping, but more than passable.
The caption on the photo in the article pretty much sums it up: “The Cavs defense: where average defenders become good defenders, and good defenders become great defenders.” Jamison may be in the twilight of his career, but he’s still got enough athleticism and energy to be effective in Coldstone’s help-and-recover scheme. (Just don’t talk to me if 16 months from now he’s limping around the court on one leg like Kevin Garnett.)
The bad news is that I would’ve made this same argument about Amar’e Stoudemire had the Cavs acquired him instead. That would’ve wiped out arguably STAT’s biggest weakness and left a much higher ceiling than what the team is getting with Jamison.
The good news is that Jamison rebounds almost as well as Stoudemire. This season, Antawn is averaging 8.2 TRB / 36 minutes; STAT averages 8.9 TRB / 36 minutes. However, STAT also turns the ball over twice as much as Jamison this season—2.8 TOV / 36 min vs. 1.4 TOV / 36 min—while both players are about even in Steals / 36 min (1.0 for Jamison, 0.9 for Amar’e).
So if we expand the lens a little and consider the number of possessions per 36 minutes that each player gets for their team as TRB + STL - TOV, Jamison actually comes out ahead (8.2 TRB + 1.0 STL - 1.4 TOV = 7.8 possessions for Jamison, vs. 8.9 TRB + 0.9 STL - 2.8 TOV = 7.0 possessions for Stoudemire). This is an encouraging sign, especially in thinking ahead about tight playoff games where a bad turnover by the PF can cost your team the game.
The bad news is that because the Cavs didn’t get Stoudemire, the Doomsday Scenario Mike outlined yesterday is still hypothetically in play. Phoenix reportedly cut off talks with Stoudemire’s agent on an extension this morning, increasing the likelihood that they would try to trade him. With the Cavs now out of the picture, that seems to leave the Heat as the only bidder.
The good news, though, is that it seems increasingly likely that the Suns are NOT actually going to trade Stoudemire before the deadline. Amar’e was not held out of the Suns’ game tonight (which would’ve been customary if a deal was imminent), and all along the Heat have have been unable to put together a package of any real appeal to the Suns. Hypothetically, this could change if Riley either softens on his stance of holding back Michael Beasley from the deal, or manages to pull in a third team. But at this point, their last supposed offer of Dorrell Wright, Quentin Richardson, Daequan Cook, Mario Chalmers, and picks is not going to get the job done (especially since Phoenix only has two roster spots open for those 4 players).
The bad news is that one of the other components of the Doomsday Scenario could still go down. Late tonight, the Rockets agreed to trade Tracy McGrady and Carl Landry to the Kings for Kevin Martin (w/some additional players on each side). However, some sources are still saying that this trade could either be expanded to a three-teamer with the Knicks, or else the Kings could hypothetically do a straight-up swap with the Knicks after the completion of their deal with the Rockets. Of course, the Kings would have to be willing to settle for the package that couldn’t entice Houston to do the deal with them straight-up in the first place: Jordan Hill, Jared Jeffries’ contract, Larry Hughes, and picks. But if they’re willing to make that trade, then the Knicks get within an Eddy Curry buy-out of the space to sign two max free agents this summer.
The good news is that if the Cavs win the title this year, it sort of doesn’t matter how much cap space the Knicks have. It seems ludicrous that Bron would bolt rather than defend a title in Cleveland.
The bad news is that one of the pieces that made the Cavs seem like a lock to get to the Finals during the first 54 games of the season may not be returning. It’s all but certain that the Wizards are going to buy out Z, putting him back on the market. But he’s already getting interest from some other playoff teams, such as Denver and Dallas, who would want him to help fill out their own lacking big men rotations and match length with the Lakers.
The good news is that the Cavs can offer Z their entire bi-annual exception ($1.99M) to re-sign him, whereas the Mavericks have only the $900,000 veteran’s minimum. And, as Z’s agent says, “I think his heart is in Cleveland, that’s for sure.” Given his history with the team and the team’s chances to make that elusive run this year, I really want to believe that it’s a foregone conclusion that Z will be back in a Cavaliers uniform in mid-March.
The bad news is that it’s not a certainty.
At the end of the day, the reality is that my final feelings on the trade aren’t going to be resolved for a while. Part of it will depend on what happens in the final hours of the trade deadline; part of it will depend on whether or not the Cavs are able to re-sign Z; part of it will depend on whether Jamison does work in their defensive system; and part of it will depend on whether or not they’re actually able to bring home the Larry O’ Brien trophy. That seems like a lame position to take, but to me, Jamison’s age and contract status—along with the potential loss of Z, whose length has been critical in frustrating the Lakers and a few other teams who try to outsize their opponents—mean that this year is going to be their best shot. Jamison is only going to get older. And while he’s currently still productive, it’s by no means a lock that he’s going to be able to keep that up for another two years, especially at a rate that’s proportional to his ~$14M / yr contract.
However, I like that the Cavs held onto both JJ and (especially) DDR, brought in someone who’s more versatile offensively than JJ, a stronger rebounder than JJ, and a big who can space the floor even better in general because of being a long-range threat (even if he’s by no means a lights-out one). And even though it has nothing to do with basketball, the league-wide perception of Jamison is that he’s still a big enough star that the trade can be labeled a ‘blockbuster’ on ESPN and Yahoo! Sports. It doesn’t mean anything on the court, but as we’ve pointed out before, it’s still a factor.
So for the time being, I’m going to give Ferry a B- on this trade, with the caveat that I will immediately upgrade to a solid B if Z is back on the roster in 30 days. I can’t go higher than that because I just don’t see Jamison as a long-term solution, and even if the Stoudemire trade was never really going to happen, the idea that we could bring in another young gun to stick with LeBron for the next several seasons got my expectations up. And it also didn’t help that a source close to Jamison supposedly claimed this morning that he’d rather play for the Celtics than the Cavs.
Til all this stuff shakes out, though, let’s all concentrate on trying to convince Geoff Petrie that trading T-Mac to the Knicks is an awful, awful idea.
-T
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