On Twitter today, the NBA held a debate about which teams were going to be playing in the finals in June.
While this can be fun to argue about in a bar, I guess, although I don’t particularly find arguments fun, let’s be honest:
There is no debate.
I’m not saying this because I think the teams that will play for the title are a foregone conclusion. No. I’m saying it for an entirely different reason.
Let’s focus on the Eastern Conference since that is where we live, so to speak.
Barring some kind of near-miracle, the Cavs will be playing the Magic once again in the Eastern Conference Finals. Count on that. As I noted the other day, according to HoopData, the Magic now have the best efficiency differential in the league (+8.46). The Cavs are second at +8.16.
Efficiency differential is a great way to determine how a team will perform during the regular season, and it is a strong indicator of who will win the championship, but it is not totally valuable in playoff series because of match-ups and the probability of trends breaking down in a relatively small best of 7 arrangement. Great teams lose some times when they aren’t supposed to (please see the Cavs in 2009 and Dallas in 2007).
For the record, the Cavs were +10.27 last year. Boston was second at +8.70. The Magic were third at +8.26.
We all know who won the title, the fourth best team, the Lakers at +7.91.
Any impartial observer should be pretty confident that this season the Cavs and the Magic are the two best teams in the East. The Cavs have had quite a few injuries, which have impacted their overall performance negatively. But the EC Finals are going to look a lot like they did last season, except with some very different match-ups, courtesy of quite a few new players.
So let’s have the debate. Who wins, Magic or Cavs?
I could write a few paragraphs about how the Cavs added length on the perimeter so they could close out on the Magic’s shooters better and faster. I could write about the Shaq versus Da-wight match-up, or the differences between Vince Carter and Hedo Turkoglu. We could even, for god sakes, compare Jason Williams and Rafer Alston if we wanted to … but I am pretty convinced that all of that debating will inevitably be worthless.
Why?
Because the teams are so evenly matched that it very well could come down to some random shit that none of us could ever predict.
For example …
Da-wight shooting free throws better than he ever has. Rafer Alston becoming a viable 3P shooter. Mo Williams turning into a complete brick layer. Debatable calls from the officials that put the two biggest of the big men in foul trouble, etc. etc.
In other words, this year’s Eastern Conference Finals could look a lot like last year’s. It could all come down to the bounce.
Which will make for an exciting series - but also a pretty goddamn nerve-racking one as well.
