I’ve had a couple of different conversations with Mike and my dad over the course of the past few days about Antawn Jamison’s overall performance as a Cavalier. I did not see the trade as a definite problem-solving upgrade when it happened, and I’ve only rarely been impressed with him since. Of course, I also feel like practically every time I check the box score, he shot 50% and got a double-double.
Brian Windhorst made a couple of points about Jamison during a radio segment earlier this week that pushed the issue even further. Tonight, I felt I needed to sit down and do an honest accounting of Jamison to find out whether or not my in-game feelings about him—particularly on offense—are accurate or not. So, here goes. (Thanks in advance to our friends at Hoop Data and Basketball Reference for the numbers.)
First, the basics. In the 16 games since coming to the Cavs, Jamison’s per-36 minute averages are 16.2 points on 47.6%FG (including 34.6%3P), 8.8 TRB, 1.7 AST, 1.3 STL, 0.7 BLK, 1.5 TO, and 3.0 PF. Pretty solid.
In his 41 games as a Wizard this year (which is a ridiculous-sounding sentence, if you take it out of context), his per-36 minute averages were 19.0 points on 45.0%FG (including 34.5%3P), 8.2 TRB, 1.2 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.4 BLK, 1.4 TO, and 2.5 PF.
This means that since the trade, he’s improved in almost all the traditional categories. FG%, 3P%, total rebounding, assists, steals, and blocks are all up. There’s a negligible difference in his turnovers, and his fouls have increased by 0.5.
However, you’ll notice that even though Jamison’s FG% is up, his per-36 minute scoring is actually down. This is entirely because of his bizarre struggles at the free throw line. For his career, Jamison shoots a passable 72.9% from the stripe. In his 16 games as a Cav, he’s plunged to 44%—the worst percentage on the team. He’s also getting 1.5 fewer FTAs per 36 minutes in Cleveland than in Washington.
Still, from these numbers, he appears to be a strong net positive for the team. But is this the whole story?
Let’s dig a little deeper.
One of Windhorst’s points in the podcast was that Jamison has been phenomenal at creating his own shot. Actually, this is completely untrue. As a Cavalier, Jamison has been assisted on 80.4% of his shots at the rim, which eclipses his previous high of 65.0% last season (to be fair, most of these advanced stats only go back to the 2007 season, so keep that in mind).
In fact, Jamison the Cavalier hasn’t been very good at creating his own shot anywhere on the floor. His most independent mark comes on FGAs closer than 10 feet, where he’s assisted on only 46.2%. On 16-23 footers, though, he’s assisted 85.7% of the time. And on both 10-15 footers and 3 pointers, he is at 100%. Yes, that means that Jamison has never created one of those two types of shots for himself since coming to Cleveland.
That said, none of these shot-creation statistics are really anomalous for Jamison’s career, with the exception of the percentage of assists he’s receiving at the rim. Since 2007, he’s never been assisted on fewer than 95% of his 3s, or 79.3% of his 16-23 footers. His shots from 10-15 feet (now assisted 100%) were assisted 80% of the time earlier this year in Washington. So in all of these facets, the Cavs’ coaching staff and front office shouldn’t exactly be surprised by what they’re getting.
I also don’t want to lose sight of the fact that a shot being assisted is not necessarily a bad thing. After all, they’re worth the same amount of points regardless of how hard an individual player has to work to get them. So regardless of how often he’s assisted, how well is he actually shooting from each of these distances?
The news here is mixed. Jamison is finishing at the rim at 61.3%, which is 1.0% worse than Pau Gasol. However, 61.3% is also his worst career performance since 2007—though only by a slim margin. On the flip side, he’s shooting a career-high 59% from less than 10’. But the news from there is all down-hill. Jamison is shooting 33.3% from 10-15’, 35% from 16-23’, and 34.5% from 3P—all of which are consistent with his career averages since 2007.
Windhorst’s other point from the podcast was that Cavs’ officials seem to be a bit disappointed with Jamison’s accuracy from the perimeter. If they are, they haven’t been paying attention to the numbers.
What about his shot selection, though? If Jamison’s generally avoiding the shots he’s worst at, the different FG percentages take on a completely different light. The good news is that Jamison is taking the most attempts (5.0 per game) at the rim, his area of greatest shooting efficiency, and the least attempts per game (0.6) from his most inefficient zone, 10-15’. The bad news is that he then goes in almost complete reverse order. His 2nd most attempts per game (3.3) come from beyond the arc (34.5%3P), 3rd most attempts from 16-23’ (35%FG), and ironically, 4th most attempts (1.5) from less than 10’—his second most efficient shooting range (59%FG).
This last point is where, in the JMID view, there’s potential for trouble. The surface reason for getting Jamison was to add a “stretch 4” to open up the paint even further for other players. The Cavs’ game against the Hornets on Wednesday was a great example of how well this can work if the opponent commits to keeping a man on Jamison at the perimeter. However, if I’m an opposing coach, I look at these numbers and see that Jamison essentially only makes 1 out of every 3 shots he launches from beyond 9’. 33% is a chance I’ll take all day. I dare Jamison to knock down significantly more than that before I start keeping a defender on him wide.
One caveat is Jamison’s 3P%. 34.5% is not great. But it’s better than Kobe and identical to Bron. Effective FG%, or eFG%, a statistic that adjusts shooting percentages to account for the fact that success on a 3 pointer is more significant than success on a 2 pointer, suggests that shooting 34.5%3P is as good as shooting 51.0% from anywhere inside the arc. So, that puts things into a slightly more positive light.
Jamison’s real problem from a shooting efficiency standpoint is his tendency to send long 2s. The reality is that if he’s not shooting from under 10’, he might as well be gunning for triples. He has basically the same risk but a greater reward.
In conclusion, even though we’re only dealing with 16 games, the numbers seem to suggest that what we’re seeing from Jamison offensively right now is about what we should expect. The hovering cloud is whether or not what we’re seeing now will ultimately be enough come playoff time.
-T
