I originally wanted to look at all of the Finals stats and see if, averaged out over the 7 games, this series was really as wacky as it kept looking game to game. But as of right now (11:14 PM PT), none of our usual go-to sites for numbers has the game 7 stats live yet. So instead, I’m just going to address the larger question that these playoffs have now raised for me. I expect it’s one I’ll be exploring in some capacity in the blog next season.
I can say with certainty that I learned more about the game of basketball in the course of the past year than I’ve ever learned about any sport in my life. Despite all of it, though, this post-season surprised me time and again. I don’t think I’m alone in that. But I also think that until I had that knowledge base, I couldn’t fully understand the magnitude of the difference between the regular season and the playoffs. Orlando riding a ridiculously efficient 3 point shooting streak from game 7 of the 2009 East semifinals through a six-game ECF was one thing; the Celtics resurrecting themselves from the land of the dead (see: the 4 seed in the East), tearing through the overall #1 (Cavs) and #2 seed (Magic) only to miss the title by a scant 4 points in the seventh game of the Finals against the overall #3 seed…that’s entirely another.
The aspect of this that I’m grappling with is my level of belief in advanced statistics. Or really, a better way of putting it would be that I’m trying to figure out the degree to which I should apply advanced stats in my thinking about the game, and the degree to which they should be counter-balanced by “intangibles,” or elements that sabermetricians haven’t yet figured out a way to quantify.
There are certainly some things in the playoffs that worked as we would’ve expected. For instance, LAL and Boston were both in the top 10 in efficiency differential and the top 6 in defensive efficiency. The fact that they ended up in the Finals isn’t necessarily shocking—especially when you consider the hospital ward full of injuries that the Cs experienced over the course of the season.
On the other hand, things like Derek Fisher—a guy who rated below average all season in almost every advanced statistical category—being a legitimate difference-maker throughout the playoffs, were much more surprising.
Of course, the go-to counter-argument for any stat geek is that this is just another example of randomness. Because of the much smaller number of games involved, the playoffs can begin at any peak or valley in a player’s performance. But part of the reason that I chose Fisher to use as the above example is that historically, he is in fact a better player in the playoffs than the regular season. (If you don’t believe me, compare his career regular season advanced stats with his career playoff ones here.)
This raises a potentially interesting question: if stat heads can show evidence of a difference in play between the regular and post-seasons for individuals, how do we reconcile those in terms of our expectations for teams come playoff time? Does it also suggest that we should be trying to figure out some kind of team playoff statistics to help in our post-season evaluations? This would be a difficult task since personnel can be a revolving door from one year to the next, but there may be a way to combine individual players’ post-season stats—or at least those of the core players—to try to determine if there’s likely to be a difference in the entire franchise come playoff time.
On some level, what I’m saying is that advanced stats are great, but their value is clearly diminished in my eyes when it comes playoff time. The regular season is definitely not irrelevant, but not everything is going to carry over straight off the same stat sheet that described the previous 82 games. There’s always a deeper level you can examine, and I’m a little disappointed in myself for not looking at more of the mitigating factors. Then again, this is why I don’t gamble.
However, one of my long-held beliefs was reinforced with steel thanks to these Finals. Part of the reason I have always hated the sports franchises of Boston so much is that even in the rare instances where I am rooting for them, they still manage to fuck me. The 2009-10 Finals is another notch on their belt in that regard. Thanks for keeping tradition alive, Celtics.
PS: One final thought - if you know anyone planning on rallying for LeBron James this weekend, tell them to stay home. Even Buzz Bissinger is sick of his shit.
-T
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