Jose Mesa Is Dead

Goodbye Jhonny, You Were Never Even Allowed to Prove You Could Rise Above the Routine Play

Fri, 30 Jul 2010 01:00:00 -0700

OK, let’s dry our eyes and try to get through this latest trade by the Tribe.

Good, I knew that wouldn’t take too long. Jhonny has been traded to the Tigers - so let’s recap.

I’ll skip the obvious jokes here and be slightly sentimental.

It wasn’t Jhonny’s fault that he was told he was a major league shortstop by Wedgie and the Indians front office. It wasn’t Jhonny’s fault that he didn’t have enough range to play the position. It wasn’t Jhonny’s fault that the most positive thing Wedgie could say about him was, “Jhonny’s the master of the routine play”.

All this is so much more obvious now that we do have a major league shortstop and he’s actually playing shortstop - brilliant.

As Mikey would say, “C’mon man”.

Jhonny was better at third base - although not stellar on defense and his offensive numbers lately - well, have been disappointing. He was hitting .246 with 23 doubles, 7 homers and 43 RBI in 91 games. (Career - 923 games in the big leagues, average of .264, 103 homers and 456 RBI).

To be fair, he did have one good playoff run for the Indians - in the 2007 Division Series he hit .469. That same year, in the ALCS, he hit .259 with 2 homers and 8 RBI.

However, his low key personality and lack of range gave the appearance that he didn’t really care - which probably wasn’t true - although I’m not totally positive about that statement.

Anyway, the Tigers thought so much of him (and don’t forget, they have been ravaged by injuries, which has been proven to affect clear thought processes) that they offered a Class A pitcher for him. I’ve confirmed that the Indian’s front office thought about the offer for about 1.3 seconds and said yes - if for no other reason than the guy is a young and has a cool sounding name - Giovanni Soto. (Oh yeah, the Indians still have to pay most of his salary so the Tigers weren’t completely delusional).

So, we bid you farewell Jhonny. Perhaps you’ll get hot and help the Tigers get into the playoffs. Who knows, they might even win the World Series. However, through it all I’ll be thinking just this;

Jhonny, you were never even allowed to prove you could rise above the routine play, at least not with the Indians.

Good bye and good luck - and thanks for the memories.

Dad

Rooting For The Underdog

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 01:00:00 -0700

I’ve been watching the Indians play a lot more frequently now that basketball season is over and August is approaching, the slowest month of the year in Hollywood. As I’ve already alluded to, I’ve largely enjoyed watching the games, even though baseball has its problems. It is an ideal sport to put on TV in the background when you’re doing something else.

You probably already know that the Indians have been playing the Yankees since Monday. On Tuesday night, while watching just called up Josh Tomlin throw 7 innings of no walk, no home run baseball, I was stricken by the gigantic discrepancy between the star power on the Yankees and that of the Indians.

Tomlin versus CC Sabathia. Alex Rodriguez versus Jhonny Peralta. Derek Jeter versus Asdrubal Cabrera. Curtis Granderson versus Trevor Crowe…

I could go on, but I won’t. At least in terms of the national perception - and really the historic background of the players themselves - it was almost like the Yankees were an All-Star team, and the Indians were a bunch of minor leaguers.

Which actually isn’t that far from the truth.

At any rate, however, I was also taken by how much more fun it was to root for the Indians precisely because of this fact. That they ended up beating the Yankees 4-1 made for an even better experience.

Like neuroscience / culture writer Jonah Lehrer talked about here, there is a lot to be said about rooting for the underdog. Although it happens naturally with any team, even those that are not our favorites, it’s even better when your favorite team is the underdog - and, of course, when they win.

I started to realize then, that there is a flip side to all the negative things you’ve heard and we’ve written about the NBA’s move towards super teams. When LeBron, Bosh, and Wade decided to join together in Miami, they also indirectly created a whole new set of underdogs. Watching good but not great teams like the Milwaukee Bucks, or up and coming teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder compete against the Heat will be ten times more enjoyable now. And although I will certainly miss watching James and Wade try to beat each other’s brains in on the floor, the Cavs-Heat game will take on an entirely different, but still quite substantive, competitive character now that Cleveland is resoundingly an underdog team.

This realization on my part, I thought, was a positive sign about life as a sports fan in Cleveland. Rooting for the underdog may not be the same as winning a championship, but it is something pretty great, and something to be cherished.

And if and when the underdog wins the title, that might just be the best thing ever.

Goodbye Delonte West, You Were Never Even Allowed to Prove You Didn't Sleep with Gloria James

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 05:33:27 -0700

Since we didn’t really address it when the trade to Minnesota happened Monday, I felt that I needed to jot down a belated goodbye note to Delonte.

In many ways, Delonte is an embodiment of what we here at Mesa keep writing about: sports and the athletes who play them are much more complex than most people understand. The man is struggling with a serious mental disorder—one for which there is no real “cure,” only imperfect treatments that can take a variety of twists and turns. Further, both the disorder and parts of the treatments directly conflict with the lifestyle and requirements of an NBA player. A consistent routine can’t realistically be established when you’re traveling for 41 or more games a year; the spotlight is no place for a person with these difficulties, especially when it comes with a battery of reporters; and even some of the medications in play have significant physical side effects, such as decreased energy levels, drowsiness, and the potential for weight gain.

Despite all that, it’s an incredible credit to Delonte that he was such an important part of the Cavs’ success between his acquisition at the trade deadline in 2007 and his unfortunate legal problems at the end of summer 2009. I for one will never forget the sight of Delonte (6’-4”, 180 lb) battling Hedo Turkoglu (6’-10”, 220 lb) all over the perimeter during the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals while LeBron was content to stay on Rafer Alston. The fact that he’s even managed to make it to the NBA at all is an incredible achievement, and part of me will always wonder how much different this past Cavs’ season could’ve been with West starting at 2 instead of Anthony Parker.

Despite all this, I think many NBA fans fail to see Delonte as anything more than a joke or a disappointment. That evaluation is way, way, way off. I think it’s largely a symptom of the way that professional athletes are viewed in our culture: not as men and women with real lives and real problems, but as characters put on our TVs and blogs and newspapers for our entertainment—and worse, our judgment. For instance, many fans don’t want to acknowledge that a good NBA team can appear to “slack off” or have difficulty when playing a game on Christmas day because those players all have the same kind of holiday/family stress we all deal with; they just have to work throughout it. Many fans don’t want to hear excuses about injury or illness when a player turns in a sub-par performance, despite how willing those fans would be to use that same excuse if they had a bad day at their own job.

In short, too many fans demand that because our pro athletes are being paid super money, they should be superhuman. Delonte can, in many ways, be seen as the emblem of just how absurd that idea is.

Since I keep getting asked by my friends about this preposterous affair Delonte is alleged to have had with LeBron’s mother, I feel like the best parting gift I can give to my man D-West is this: a complete breakdown of what utter crap that rumor was, via Deadspin. Beyond basketball, it’s a sobering lesson in how easy it can be to crucify someone via the internet based on nothing but smoke, mirrors, and a few well-placed emails.

So from all of us at Mesa, here’s to you, Red. I hope you can somehow manage to put the chaos of the past year behind you, emerge from your private struggles, and return to your 2008-9 form on the court. Honestly, even if it happens in Miami, I can’t be mad at you for it. Just do us all a favor and make LeBron actually guard someone.

-T

Sessions + Hollins - Delonte + Telfair = ???

Tue, 27 Jul 2010 01:00:00 -0700

I was on the verge of writing another column for tonight, one that may have been more fun, when Minnesota Timberwolves GM David Kahn and Cleveland Cavaliers GM Chris Grant burned the phone lines down to the ground, finally, and finished a deal that had been obvious to just about everyone once it became clear that “Razor” Ramon Sessions was on the trading black.

Razor and Ryan Hollins … welcome to Cleveland.

Delonte West, we will miss you deeply. Sebastian Telfair, we hardly got to know you.

I could definitely write a long column about my appreciation for Delonte’s game, especially as I witnessed it during the 2008-9 season. I’m not going to do that, however, because I want to keep our focus on the Cavaliers on the future instead of the past.

From the Cavs’ perspective, this trade accomplishes two very important things. Number one, Sessions gives the team another creator on offense. Number two, Hollins - at 7’0” - is a center. The Cavs had either zero or one of those prior to this trade, depending on where and how Byron Scott decides to play Anderson Varejao.

Telfair’s contract expires at the end of this coming season, at $2.7M, and Delonte is owed only $500K if waived before August 3rd (as numerous other media outlets have undoubtedly already reported).

Sessions is owed $12.3M through the 2013 season. Hollins is owed $4.8M over the next two years.

In other words, for Minnesota, this was a salary dump.

(For some reason, Kahn also felt compelled to give a 2nd round pick to the Cavaliers in 2013 as well.)

As uncomfortable as I feel about the notion of Cleveland now having Milwaukee’s backcourt, circa 2007 - an irrational feeling that isn’t based on anything - I’m positive about the deal overall. Sessions did not have a very good season last year, playing in Kurt Rambis’s forced attempt at the triangle offense, but he was pretty damn good the year before he became a free agent.

Sessions isn’t a very good shooter - 51.3% TS, .3 3PA per 36 min at 18% - and is only about average in turnovers when compared with other point guards. His advanced stats, on the other hand, have been above average, especially in the aforementioned pre-free agent year, with a PER of 17.6, a WP48 of .201, and a 2 year Adjusted +/- of +1.86.

I can’t remember seeing Hollins play enough to make any kind of accurate assessment of his game. Last season, he played 16.8 minutes per game and was not even close to good by any statistical measures (11.0 PER, -.147 WP48, and a -7.91 APM).

Well, at least Hollins is a body.

Sessions is 24-years-old. Hollins is 26.

Despite the depressing nature of Hollins’s career production so far, I still believe this deal makes the Cavaliers a better team. As much as I want to believe the good Delonte is still out there and will come back one day, his situation in Cleveland was probably too strained for it to make sense to keep him in town. Good Delonte is a better player than Razor Ramon, but good Delonte may not exist anymore, and none of us will ever know what kind of stresses his mental health had on the team behind closed doors.

If we accept then that Delonte had to either be traded or released, the Cavs basically got Sessions, Hollins, and another asset - a 2nd Round Pick in 2013 - for Telfair.

It’s hard to argue with that trade, even if it may not change life in Cleveland dramatically.

So far Chris Grant and Dan Gilbert have to be applauded for not irrationally trying to jump start the post-LeBron era for the sake of making a splash, to the long term detriment of the organization. We’ll see what happens next.

Is the Play the Thing?

Sun, 25 Jul 2010 22:05:19 -0700

Between LeBron, Chris Paul, and practically everyone else in the NBA any time there’s a trade of any significance, I’ve come to a strange conclusion: I’m sick of hearing about championships.

I don’t mean to say that I believe NBA players shouldn’t be thinking about winning or trying to win. By their very nature, every professional athlete should be wired to compete, to dominate, to conquer. If they’re not, they should be making their living doing something else instead.

My problem is with the way championships are now perceived. From what I can tell, the title of every professional sport has become a check box—something that every player with an eye toward his legacy believes he must be able to mark off. If not, the thinking is that the player automatically becomes second-rate.

Since it’s always the default comparison in this case, just consider the difference between how Charles Barkley (off-court issues aside) and MJ are perceived. Barkley’s empty ring fingers seem to have made him a cautionary tale to every pro basketball player of subsequent generations. Yet, during his career, Chuck was an absolute monster. If you don’t believe me, check his stats—and keep in mind while you’re doing it that he was putting up those numbers at power forward while standing a mere 6’-6”.

Unfortunately, the first thing that comes to mind at the mention of Chuck’s name is the glaring lack of a championship on his resume. Now, players like LeBron, Chris Paul, and everyone else born after 1980 look at Barkley like the poster child of some kind of pro basketball “Scared Straight” campaign. (“Don’t lift the Larry O’Brien trophy, and you’ll end up like him!”)

Championships have somehow become the be-all, end-all in every sporting discussion. There’s an entire segment of the population that believes the “Kobe vs. LeBron” discussion is idiotic simply because LeBron is ringless. Therefore, how can he even be considered in the same breath as Kobe Bryant, 5-time champion?

As a result, the possibility of potentially doing something historic, of assuming greater risk for the possibility of greater reward, has become irrelevant. There is nothing—not loyalty, not an emotional connection to a place or a fan base or teammates—as important as a championship. Because without one, what are you, really?

This, I believe, is the primary motivator behind the power moves this generation’s superstars are now pulling. LeBron willing to go to Miami to play a supporting role to Wade? Better than not winning a championship. Chris Paul making every effort to burn the sports fans of one of the most unique and real-life ill-fated cities in the country? At least he won’t be the failure who could never win the Finals.

This isn’t necessarily the fault of the young players themselves. It’s the inevitable result of how we as a sporting culture have set our priorities. In team sports, the teams are obviously made up of individuals. Especially in the case of baskestball, where only 5 men are on the court for a team at any given time, the impact of a single player can be enormous. At the same time, no player is ever alone on the court, so pinning the ultimate success or failure of the team on one person is inherently illogical.

There’s a paradox at work, too, because we certainly honor individual greatness. But in a bizarre way, we respect the individual’s impact so much that his team’s failures become the individual’s fault. It’s even evident in the language when we discuss this topic. Very seldom do we say “Charles Barkley’s Suns never won the title.” We simply say, “Charles Barkley never won the title.” After all, why skirt around the damnation by acknowledging reality?

This is why I’m disappointed in Chris Paul’s trade demands, and in LeBron’s decision to merge with a rival rather than try to knock him out. On some level, I feel like those guys are surrendering. They would rather diminish their own greatness, the possibility of what *could* happen, for what they believe is a guarantee that they’ll be able to check off the championship box. They’re playing it safe—and doing it partially because we’ve all made them believe that that’s the only thing that matters.

It’s also why part of me wants to defend Mo Williams, who begged not to be traded because Cleveland has become his home and he believes the Cavs can get it done; or Byron Scott, who took the Cavs’ coaching job without any security that the team would be a contender next year. For all their other faults, these are men who believe in something greater than popular opinion. They understand that there are possibilities but no guarantees. (As Shaq said this past year, “I won four championships. Three of them? Lucky as hell.”) And above all else, they have values or desires that exceed catering to the fans and analysts and past greats blinded by jewelry. They stand for something.

I wish I could say the same for more of the players who make my favorite sport run.

-T

Ha!

Fri, 23 Jul 2010 21:10:33 -0700

Ha!:

Where Wayne Winston predicts the Heat win 66 games this season … aka the Cavaliers win total from 2 years ago.

Watching Bad Teams Can Still Be Fun

Fri, 23 Jul 2010 01:00:00 -0700

Something we’ve probably all been wondering about - openly or not - is whether the Cavaliers will still be fun to watch in 2010-11, even if they end up not being competitive.

I think I have an answer to this question because I’ve been watching the Indians when I have free time …

The answer is yes.

Unless every single game is a total blowout, watching young players fight to win and make a name for themselves - so long as they do so in the best interest of the team - can actually be really fun. Part of it may be hallucinatory - us getting our hopes u thinking, Yeah, maybe Christian Eyenga really will become the next LeBron - but even that can be fun.

In fact, there is a certain part of me that actually enjoys watching teams that are going nowhere more than teams that are vying for the championship. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little bit relieved to be able to sit down and watch the NBA Finals without having a horse in the race. Without anxiety - which I have enough of already - looming over me.

This isn’t to say that I don’t deeply love watching sports when there’s a lot on the line not only for the players but for the fans I’ve aligned myself with. However, I have tried to detach myself from winning and losing as time has gone on. I remember feeling absolutely horrible for days after the Indians lost to the Red Sox in game 7 of the ALCS in 2007. After that, I decided that I never wanted to feel that way again - not when it came to things I couldn’t control.

So even when our favorite teams may not be in contention for a title, they can still be a pleasure to follow and watch, just as long as they’re not getting blown out. Plus, it’s always fun to root against other teams. And thankfully the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Heat, and now maybe the Magic or the Knicks (shout to CP3) aren’t going to be contracted any time soon.

If all else fails, there’s Carlos Santana, who has a great “I love to win” personality (watch his actions after he catches a third strike) and who also seems to be an equally great talent (it’s early, but he has a .978 OPS).

Enjoy the weekend, homies. Just say no to the Chris Paul and LeBron James version of doing what’s best for you and your family.

Has LeBron Killed the NBA?

Thu, 22 Jul 2010 01:15:00 -0700

Has LeBron Killed the NBA?:

Linkage will take you to an article by CBS Sports’s Ken Berger, all about how Chris Paul has been so inspired by the Wade / James / Bosh trio that he wants to replicate it somewhere else.

Reports of this idea first surfaced at Carmelo Anthony’s wedding the weekend after James announced his decision to head to Miami. Allegedly, Paul proposed during the reception that he, Amar’e, and ‘Melo form their own three-headed monster in New York. I didn’t pay much attention to this idea at first, because it sounded like the type of thing that…well, a friend would say to his other buddies after they’d all gotten hammered at a wedding reception.

However, Berger’s reporting makes it sound like Paul’s alleged proclamation had a lot more substance to it than that. According to Berger, CP3 is now determined to force a trade to the Magic, Lakers, or Knicks before the start of the 2010-11 season.

Obviously, the first two of those scenarios would have the rest of the pieces already in place. The Knicks, though, wouldn’t be “complete” until, in theory, Carmelo rebuffed Denver and decided to sign in New York after his contract expires in 2011.

Of course, that last scenario is far from a done deal. The giant Bermuda Triangle that is the new CBA could render everything moot—though I become more convinced every day that it ultimately won’t look all that different from the current one. Nevertheless, Melo will have to decide whether to accept a 3 year, $65MM extension from the Nuggets between now and then, knowing full well that it could be his last true opportunity to pull down the type of scrill that the free agents of 2010 are now making.

Beyond the specifics of what happens with Paul, the larger implication is the troubling one, especially for small market teams such as the Cavs.

For now, Miami’s triple-star alliance has become the new paradigm for young players in the NBA to covet. We may have entered into an era where every new talent in the league will start to believe that the only path to a title is alongside two other established great players.

If so, it’s a dangerous time for the NBA. The obvious reality is that there can’t be 3 great players on all 30 teams. It would be hard for me to imagine that there can be 3 truly great players on 10 teams.

So what happens?

Hypothetically, power would concentrate in just a handful of teams—probably 5 or 6 at most. By itself, this doesn’t sound so crazy. There are only 5 or 6 legitimate title contenders at most in any given NBA season. But unlike the contenders of the past, the disparity between the talent levels of these new powers and the rest of the league would be astronomical. So astronomical, in fact, that I find it hard to believe that competition could exist at a reasonable enough level to justify the continuation of a 30-team league. What would be the point of even putting 16 teams into the playoffs if everyone knows that, for the next half-decade, only the Knicks or Heat can legitimately rise out of the East to the Finals in order to battle either LA or Oklahoma City?

On some level, I’m hesitant to push this idea too hard. For one thing, we all know that just putting the supposed pieces in place doesn’t automatically mean you get to lift the trophy. Injuries, feuds, bad luck, bad match-ups, and a thousand other factors can all ignite the wick of the bomb that blows up a paper champion.

For another thing, we have to remember that it’s been proven in years past that defense can, in fact, win titles. As Tom Haberstroh has pointed out, the best blueprint for beating super-teams like the Heat may be the type of suffocating defense that propelled the Pistons past a “more talented” Lakers team in 2004. (Note: that link is only going to be good if you have ESPN Insider. Sorry.) To create a monster of that order, you’d need talent—but not the type of high-dollar, high-octane offensive power that we’re seeing in Miami and Paul’s dream of NY.As the 2007 Cavs showed, you may only need one superstar to get there, provided that the rest of the cast is willing to chase after and rough up the opponent like prison guards.

To return to a theme we’ve covered here before, I am severely disappointed by the idea that stars will now start defaulting to making alliances as a means to winning. It’s unfair to place the blame for this squarely on Wade, LeBron, and Bosh; after all, I have to point the finger at the Garnett / Pierce / Allen combo for reintroducing the term “Big Three” into our basketball vernacular. (And Jesus Christ, do I hate Danny Ainge for that.) But at least in that case, the team was created through trades rather than three players engineering everything on their own because of a lack of confidence in their own individual abilities.

We’ll have to see where this Chris Paul story goes. But I for one am not keen on the idea of watching two or three teams run the league for the next decade, all because Pat Riley created an unprecedented opportunity in South Beach. The problem isn’t the 2010 Heat; it’s the idea that they’ve now created a precedent that could make the NBA as a whole unsustainable.

-T

Can the 2011 Cavaliers Be the 1994 Bulls?

Wed, 21 Jul 2010 01:00:00 -0700

Can the 2011 Cavaliers Be the 1994 Bulls? :

The above is a link to the blog at Basketball Reference, where Neil Paine put a post up on Tuesday looking at how the 1994 Chicago Bulls won 55 games without Michael Jordan, only 2 less than they did in 1993 when they still had Jordan.

Paine notes that an earlier statistical analysis he did suggested that the Cavs, without LeBron James, would win 20-25 less games - if James were replaced with an average player. By the end of the article, he backtracks a little, openly wondering if James’s legacy will be further tainted if the Cavs win a bunch of games this year, which would imply that his supporting cast wasn’t as bad as the pervasive opinion seems to believe it was.

In the post, Paine shows that the ‘94 Bulls were able to survive intact because of some luck but also, predominately, because of their defense, which actually improved the year that Jordan left. A lot of this had to do with Scottie Pippen absolutely locking down on the perimeter, with a 96.9 DRtg. By contrast, the Cavs’ best perimeter defender last year was LeBron (102 DRtg).

What does this all mean then for the Cavs moving forward in the 2010-11 season? Well, it highlights a couple of things. One is it explains Byron Scott’s emphasis on defense. If the Cavs end up being a top 5 defensive team like he has said he wants them to be, they will have leaped at least 2 spots in the defensive standings. It also suggests why the Cavs have pursued Matt Barnes, who last year had a DRtg of 103. With or without James, the Cavs needed better perimeter defenders, and Barnes might be a decent start.

On the flip side of things, the Cavs will also need to sustain an at least average offense if they hope to stay above 50 wins. As we’ve pointed out repeatedly in the past, this Cavaliers team was entirely built around LeBron, with complimentary pieces that would enable James to utilize his superhuman talents. The merits of this approach can be debated - they certainly have been - but I understand why the Cavs did what they did. Do you really help your team by taking the ball out of James’s hands?

The Bulls found a suitable number one, high usage option in Pippen to keep their offense hovering around the average mark. At the moment, without any additional roster moves, it looks like the Cavs are going to have to hope that Mo Williams can fill that role. Mo’s career usage rate is at 22.6%. Pippen’s rose from 23.9 to 27.1 in 1994. As multiple studies have shown, efficiency decreases as usage increases, so if Mo takes more shots and finishes more plays his efficiency will likely go down slightly.

Promisingly, Pippen’s ORtg before 1994 peaked at 114. It was 108 in his first year without Jordan. Mo’s ORtg has been as high as 115 playing with LeBron but was a respectable 111 in his final year with Milwaukee.

The other player most analysts and apparently the team itself will look to in order to fill the usage gap left by the leaving of LeBron is JJ Hickson. Glitch’s usage rate last year was only 18.9. Most of those plays, anyone who watched about 10 games can tell you, came as a result of feeds from LeBron. Whether Mo - or a new point guard - will be able to create some of those same shots for JJ is something we’ll find out over the course of the year. Hopefully, Glitch will also improve his ability to create his own shot off the dribble, while also taking and hitting more catch and shoot jumpers.

Ultimately, Paine’s post and my cursory analysis would seem to suggest that the Cavs have a real shot of winning 50+ games next year. This will be bad for my hopes of being able to buy courtside season tickets for the 2011-12 campaign, as well as for the franchise’s hopes of getting a new star player via the draft, but it’ll also make LeBron look kind of worse and be good for the economy of the city of Cleveland.

The Spotlight Turns

Mon, 19 Jul 2010 22:00:00 -0700

This is my least favorite part of the year from a sporting standpoint.

Not only are the NBA playoffs long gone, but the exciting aspect of free agency is in the rear view miror, too. Regular season baseball holds no draw whatsoever for me (at least, as an Indians’ fan). Football season is still two months off.

In fact, I was in a sports bar on Saturday night and the only coverage running on TV was of the British Open and Summer League basketball. Yikes.

I bring this up because, in a way, it highlights the state of the average Cleveland fan. With LeBron gone, many seem to think, what the hell do we do now?

Now, as I’ve written recently, practically everyone is underestimating the quality of the Cavs’ roster James left behind. They’ve already been written off as, if not a lottery team, certainly a team that won’t so much as sniff the 8th seed in the East. I disagree with this, but perception is reality.

Despite a recent surge, the Indians are still an ocean away from competing in the Central division. Carlos Santana has added some small bit of intrigue, but facts are facts. The Tribe is 12.5 games behind the White Sox, with both the Twins and Tigers only 1.5 games out of first themselves. It’s not impossible the team could get back into the race, but at this point it seems unlikely.

This leaves the Browns.

Energized by Mike Holmgren’s presence, some notable (if dubious) off-season moves, and a hold-over effect from the 4-game winning streak on which they rode out the 2009 season, the Browns have become the city’s undisputed sports focal point.

That said, no one (fans or pundits) seems to believe the 2010 Browns will be better than .500, and even that may be a near-miracle.

For now, though, they are once again the great hope.

This raises a semi-interesting question about expectation.

In my opinion, the Browns have enjoyed somewhat of an irrational golden age in the court of public opinion for the past several years. You can tell me that attendance was dramatically down this past season. That’s true. You could tell me that Browns fans have had no lack of venom to spew about the team, the coaching staff, the organization as a whole. That’s true too.

But I would argue that it’s also true that while in or near season, they’ve still dominated the sports discussion in the city.

More importantly, they’ve done this despite the fact that, by any measure, they have sucked all but two years since the franchise reboot.

Since that time, the burden of being THE team in Cleveland expected to win has seldom been on them. The Indians won at least 90 games per season from 1999-2001. The Cavs lucked into LeBron James in the summer of 2003. Appropriately enough, the Browns went 9-7 and made the playoffs in 2002.

Obviously, the Cavs weren’t expected to immediately shoot into title contention after the 2003 draft. But the mere hope and excitement around having the home-town phenom on OUR team, for once, may have been enough to keep people satisfied for a time—especially when the Cavs won 18 more games in 2003-4, barely missed the playoffs the season after, and then grew into a perennial playoff team and seeming powerhouse until, oh, about two weeks ago.

During that time, Clevelanders could look to the Browns as a favored son, partially because the hope for winning could be largely satisfied by someone else. In the years immediately after the Browns’ return, it was the Indians. Since 2003, it’s largely been the Cavs.

Now, though, the spotlight has squarely turned back to Berea.

Some historical perspective comes into play here, too. Since the Cavs completed the pro triumvirate in Cleveland with their inaugural 1970 season, there have only been 5 years out of a possible 40 where multiple of the city’s franchises have been competitive at once.

The only time that all three have been simultaneously good was 1994. The ‘93-94 Cavs got into the playoffs on a 47-35 record, but lost in the opening round; the ‘94 Browns went 11-5 and were hammered by the Steelers in the Divisional round of the post-season; and the ‘94 Indians were 66-47 when the lock-out crashed the rest of the season.

Aside from that magical year, the Cavs and Browns were both playoff teams in 1989 & 1990. The Cavs and Tribe were both playoff teams in 1985 & 1998.

That’s it.

The point? Almost invariably, there has only ever been one of the three teams “worth” following, i.e. if you define value in terms of the expectation that the team can truly compete week after week.

With James gone and the Cavs likely to embark on a longer-term rebuilding process, the weight falls once again on the shoulders of Randy Lerner’s team. I suspect this has already magnified the intensity of the pressure the organization feels.

They can no longer be the puppy that everyone loves, despite that it keeps whizzing on the carpet. For the first time in a long time, they are going to be expected to produce for the city.

Starting in about two months, we’ll all find out whether they’ve righted the ship just in time to shoulder the load. If not, it could be a long year for any Cleveland fan who isn’t willing to take the long view.

-T

Complex Psychology

Sun, 18 Jul 2010 18:37:46 -0700

I would like to begin by saying that, as a fan of the city of Cleveland and the Cavaliers, I am not happy that LeBron James has decided ~~to blow $50M on a house in Miami~~ to “take his talents to South Beach.”

I will miss rooting for James for 82+ games next year.

I will miss regularly watching one of the most talented athletes the sport of basketball has ever seen.

Will I miss putting up with his shit? Not so much.

With all of that out of the way then, let’s get to the real dirt, and question numero uno:

Why the hell was LeBron’s decision so confusing, especially to Cavaliers fans and Clevelanders?

To start, this was a case where - unlike in the past, as far as the Indians were concerned - Cleveland could actually offer more money than any other team.

In almost every other situation in professional sports history, this would have been enough for a franchise to keep its star.

Many people will tell you that the difference between the two contracts was small when looked at over 5 years instead of 6, and that the lack of a state income tax in Florida meant that LeBron would actually make more money in 5 years in Miami than he would in 5 years in Cleveland.

These people are ignoring the cost of living discrepancy between Miami and Cleveland. I’m sure the Heat contingent conveniently forgot to mention this in their recruiting meeting as well.

Economically speaking then, James’s decision was entirely illogical and therefore difficult to comprehend. For Clevelanders it was worse because we had seen several high profile free agents leave in the past, as the Indians were outbid by the Yankees and the Red Sox. This, however, was a situation where Cleveland could pay the most. The tables had finally turned…

And then it didn’t make a difference.

So what about all of the other factors?

Anyone who listened to LeBron blow smoke for the past 7 years heard him mention the words “Akron,” “loyalty,” “friends,” and “family” a billion times. Above all else, we were led to believe he loved Akron. He loved the home that had been created for him, with his help, because of his unbelievable basketball talent. He made a movie about it. He had Buzz Bissinger write a book about it. He held his first MVP award presentation at his high school. He said he wanted to light Cleveland up like Vegas. He dragged Gisele Bundchen to Akron for a Vogue cover shoot for god sakes.

LeBron loved home…

And then went on to completely disregard it for “The Decision.”

Yet, at the same time, we also heard LeBron say over and over, during his seemingly endless press stops in New York, that the biggest factor in his free agency decision wouldn’t be money. It would be winning. He said this repeatedly, so much so that I basically wrote it off as the kind of thing an athlete says even when it isn’t true, simply because it’s good for his image.

And in an age where athletes routinely go through media training, trust me, this is more often than not the M.O. every time something comes out of their mouth.

But was LeBron actually telling the truth this time?

It certainly seems like he was.

He actually took less money, less than the max, to go and play for a team that he believes - rightly or wrongly - gives him the best shot to win multiple championships.

This is relatively, if not completely, unheard of in pro sports.

Furthermore, LeBron actually took less money to go to a team that already has a superstar. In other words, on some level, he put his ego aside to do what he thought gave him the best chance to win.

Taking less money is one thing, but also acting selflessly (to a certain extent) for the all mighty W?

Wow. When the hell does that ever happen?

Almost never.

In fact, selfishness and greed are the two qualities I most often hear people railing against when they discuss pro athletes. Here we have the MVP of the NBA acting almost completely the opposite of both of those negative traits, and what happens?

He gets crucified for it.

Pretty complicated, right?

And I haven’t even stretched the “home” theme out further. Could it be possible that LeBron sees Wade and Bosh as such great friends that he considers them family? Or maybe Wade manipulated LeBron, maybe Wade told Bosh - or better yet, maybe Pat Riley told Wade - “Hey, just keep telling him you guys are best friends. I’ll pretend I’m the father he’s never had. We can get to this guy….” Home, friends, and family can take on a lot of different forms.

Ostensibly, if LBJ-Wade-Bosh win a championship this year, will we be “treated” to More Than a Game 2, with footage from Wade and Bosh’s free agency tours edited in to a season long documentary about adversity, and how it was these three guys’ friendship that allowed the Heat to win the NBA championship in 2011?

Don’t laugh. I could see it happening. It certainly fits the formula.

In the end, I find myself feeling not only confused about LeBron’s decision, because of how it made almost complete sense and no sense at the same time, but also confused about how I’m supposed to feel about it. In some sense, LeBron did everything we want athletes to do but assume they never will. On the other hand, he acted like an oblivious, narcissistic fool, with almost no regard for things like loyalty, legacy, and the call to greatness.

And that’s why, more often than not, when you see me talking about LeBron James from now on, you’ll see me scratching my head.

Hey Dad, Bryant Gumbel? Really? R U Sure??

Fri, 16 Jul 2010 19:35:00 -0700

I’m not a fan of Bryant Gumbel. In fact, I typically think he’s full of crap. However, I heard a comment that he made on his TV show the other day that made me stop and think for a moment.

Surprising, I know.

So, I tracked his comments down on the Internet today - and found his words just as compelling after reading what he had to say. He explains - mentions names in fact - how winning championships isn’t essential to being revered as an athlete.

So, take a moment to read his post below. Kudos Mr. Gumbel for saying in a few words what LeBron and his cronies couldn’t figure out in 7 years with the Cavs. He would have been legendary - now he’ll be just someone on Wade’s team.

I believe LeBron’s image has taken a huge hit - booed at the Espy’s, booed at Melo’s wedding, scorned by most sports fans.

Yes, it’s better that the patient died, it will be painful for awhile, but its time to move on. We’ve only lost a spoiled superstar - LeBron has lost his legacy and his worldwide fan base.

We’ll recover - but Cleveland sports fans are tougher than LeBron. I not sure LeBron will ever recover his image.

With respect - here’s the comments Bryant Gumbel made at the closing of his HBO show called “Real Sports”.

Holla

Dad

“Finally tonight, a few words about championship rings. Just when did they become the all-important barometer of who does or doesn’t count in sports? When did they supersede personal excellence or exemplary character as a standard of greatness?

I got to thinking about that the other night after the self-anointed chosen one, LeBron James, embarrassed himself as he tried to make his decision to seek rings in Miami sound like a search for the Holy Grail. It’s when he essentially admitted to placing a higher priority on winning than anything else.

LeBron’s decision is typical of our immediate gratification era, but it flies in the face of history. Even though he never won a title, Dan Marino is still the biggest hero in Florida. And in Boston, all those Celtics championships are dimmed by the unforgettable brilliance of Ted Williams, who never won anything. In Chicago, Gale Sayers and Dick Butkus have legendary status despite playing on losing teams. And even in the NBA, where guys seem obsessed with being viewed as “the man,” real men like Barkley, Ewingand Baylor are ringless, but revered.

Despite such evidence to the contrary, LeBron James seems to think he needs a ring to change his life and secure his legacy. Maybe he’ll get one, maybe he won’t, but it’s probable that no amount of rings will ever remove the stench he wallowed in last week. LeBron may yet find that in the court of public opinion, just as putting on a tux can’t make a guy a gentleman, winning a ring can’t make one truly a champion.”

Dirty Projections: The Do-Over

Fri, 16 Jul 2010 01:57:00 -0700

After a discussion with WP48 expert Holland, I realized that I semi-botched my projection of the Cavs’ team performance this upcoming season. I wanted to take some time tonight to correct the analysis.

For those of you actually interested in advanced statistics, the main error involves some of the nuances of WP48. The purest form of the metric involves position adjustments. For example, a point guard’s WP48 performance isn’t weighted in exactly the same way as a center’s. Without adjusting, the metric heavily favors big men because they’re so much more likely to, say, get rebounds and shoot a higher percentage, as well as much less likely to turn the ball over (all important components of the entire scheme).

My source for WP48 was Basketball Reference, which is still a fantastic resource for advanced stats. However, if anyone out there wants to use it, keep in mind that the WP48 figures they give appear to be unadjusted.

OK, with the explanation out of the way, here are the adjusted WP48 totals for the roster hold-overs from last season. I kept all of the other parameters the same as in the original post.

Varejao = .181 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 11.1 wins

Mo = .116 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 7.1 wins

Moon = .191 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 11.7 wins

Hickson = .123 WP48 x 20 mpg x 82 games = 4.2 wins

Gibson = .042 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 0.6 wins

Jamison = .194 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 games = 11.9 wins

Parker = .081 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 games = 5.0 wins

Powe = .000 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 0 wins

Green = .074 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.1 wins

Jawad = -.069 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = -1.1 wins

Telfair = .020 WP48 x 4 mpg x 82 games = 0.1 wins

TOTAL PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 52 wins

So after adjusting for position, WP48 actually projects the Cavs to win one additional game beyond what the unadjusted numbers projected. This is mostly due to dramatically increased ratings for Moon and Jamison. Their gains more than offset significantly lower ratings for players like Mo, Gibson, Parker, Powe, and Jawad.

The other error I made in Monday’s post had to do with the expected error involved in the calculation.

I said at the time that WP48 predicted win totals to about 80% accuracy. I undershot. It’s actually (allegedly) accurate to within 94%. The error range is about +/- 1.5 games. Essentially, what this means is that the 2010-11 Cavs have a 94% chance of winning somewhere between 50.5 and 53.5 games.

Let me repeat that: if no changes are made to the current roster, and the rotation looks something like what I’ve outlined above, the Cavs allegedly have a 94% chance to win at least 50 games in their first season without LeBron. That’s +20 wins higher than what even the most optimistic sports pundit (that I’ve seen, anyway) has predicted for the team next season.

Of course, if Byron Scott chooses to start Jawad at 3 over Moon, this entire projection goes out the window. And I might, too. (Though I live on the first story, so the effect would probably be pretty muted.) But for now, things are definitely looking up.

Now, as I noted in my original post on this topic, I still think we’re running a significant risk in these projections if we only look at the numbers from last season. (Unfortunately, I don’t have adjusted career WP48 numbers.)

One of the points where I split with the WP48 philosophy has to do with synergy, for lack of a better term. The WP48 system assumes that player production is an inherent trait determined by the player’s skill level. In other words, he will produce roughly the same over time regardless of who the other 4 men on the court next to him are, not to mention who the 5 defending him are.

I, on the other hand, believe that a player’s teammates have a significant effect on what he’s capable of doing. For example, a spot-up 3-point shooter gets much better looks if he’s playing with someone on the front line who demands a double-team. Theoretically, he should be more open for his shots and should drain a higher percentage. I would argue that Mo Williams has been a great example of this. In his 2 seasons with the Cavs, he’s shot 43.6% 3P and 42.9% 3P, respectively. In the previous 4 seasons in which he’d played significant minutes with Milwaukee, his career high from beyond the arc was 38.5%. That’s a 4.5-5% uptick since starting next to LeBron.

This will be one of the elements to keep your eye on this coming season. Can the Cavs players find a way to do what they did with LeBron? As Mike pointed out, their current roster has a very low number of guys capable of creating shots for themselves. We’ll see how that affects things, along with the new up-tempo system Scott is already implementing in the Vegas Summer League. (Side note: WP48 disregards pace, so in theory this shouldn’t affect the projected win total. I remain skeptical on this point, but that’s a discussion for another day.)

That said, if things proceed as I expect, I still plan on checking into the over/under on Cleveland’s win total for 2010-11 if I’m in Vegas before the season starts.

All right, I think this is the last numbers-centric post I’m doing for a little while. Pseudo-philosophy, pseudo-psychology, and pseudo-humor back next week.

-T

Psychological Delay

Wed, 14 Jul 2010 23:57:31 -0700

I’m going to have to wait to put up my post on the complex psychology of LeBron’s decision to go to Miami. Sorry. Movie writing caught up to me today.

A few brief observations…

Yes, it’s only two summer league games, but Sacramento Kings rookie DeMarcus Cousins is out rebounding third year Cavaliers power forward JJ Hickson…

Kyle Lowry will not be a Cavalier. Thank you to the Houston Rockets for quickly matching the offer sheet so the Cavs can look into other options and use that Mid Level Exception money - which would have been placed on hold for Lowry for seven days otherwise…

As much as I am wary of the Cavs replicating the former Milwaukee Bucks backcourt of Ramon Sessions and Mo Williams for psychological reasons, Sessions would be a great value addition to a team that is desperately in need of players who can create shots for themselves and others…

Sessions is also cheaper than Mike Conley in the long run, as Conley will become a restricted free agent after this season, with a $6.5M qualifying offer. I’m sure the Buckeyes contingent would prefer MC though. Totally unbiased, of course…

in Tuesday’s summer league game, it looked to me like Danny Green had taken over LeBron’s role in the offense. This, unfortunately, did not look like something the team wants to continue utilizing in the future…

And I’m spent for now. We really will start writing about something other than basketball at some point in the near future. But, right now, most of the Cleveland-based storylines are happening with the Cavs.

I’m tired. Goodnight, good morning, until next time … thanks for reading.

Cavs Round-Up

Wed, 14 Jul 2010 01:07:57 -0700

There are two different Cavs-centric topics that I felt needed to be addressed in some capacity tonight.

1) Goodbye Z, You Were Never Even Allowed To…Oh, You Did Everything But Win It All

I don’t have a lot to say here, other than that Z is the only reason to not resent the 20010-11 Miami Heat. In my personal opinion, it’s ridiculous to begrudge Z for making this move. He’s played for the Cavs for 14 years and even came back after a pride-stinging trade to the Wizards this past season. If the Heat do in fact win the title this year or next (early reports were that Z’s contract with Miami included a player option for the 2011-12 season), I will take consolation in the notion that Z will have finally won his ring. Admittedly, I will still wish that ring had a Cavaliers logo on it. But especially since he has already stated that he hopes to become a part of the Cavs organization after he retires, we here at Mesa wish Z the best.

2) “Who the Fuck is Kyle Lowry?”

Those of you who saw that the Cavs made their first move of the free agency period by signing Rockets back-up point guard Kyle Lowry to an offer sheet may be asking exactly that question.

The answer is: one of the best PGs most of you have never heard of.

First off, any time the Cavs acquire or attempt to acquire a player from Houston, you should automatically feel like it’s a good choice. Rockets GM Daryl Morey is arguably the most advanced stats-centric executive in the league. If you like our perspective on things, you like Morey’s perspective on things.

Lowry is one of those players that the Cavs have had their eye on for years. I remember rumors that they were trying to acquire him dating as far back as his playing days in Memphis, which ended midway through the 2008-9 season. Though not a tall player (listed at 6’ even), he’s not a pushover by any means (175 lb). More importantly, he has been arguably one of the best defensive 1s in the league for the past 4 years. Though my usual source for RAPM doesn’t seem to be loading tonight for some reason, it appears that his 4 year aggregate defense RAPM is right around -2, which is excellent (remember, negative numbers are good in defensive RAPM).

Further, Lowry is a disgustingly good rebounder for his position. Here’s what Mesa favorite Tom Haberstroh had to say about him at the beginning of the free agent season:

To the casual fan, Lowry might seem like another ordinary backup at the point. The 24-year-old former Villanova guard plays like a bulldog, using his rare combination of strength and quickness to overpower his lighter opponents. And he’s one of the best, if not the best, rebounding point guards in the NBA, as his 8.6 percent rebounding rate (percentage of available rebounds a player collects while on the floor) places him second at the position just behind all-timer Jason Kidd. Lowry, who’s just 6 feet tall, may even go down as the best vertically challenged rebounder in the history of the game.

Lowry also does the little things that aren’t captured in the box score. According to Hoopdata.com, Lowry took more charges (51) than any other guard this past season despite playing only 24.3 minutes per game.

The down-side is that Lowry isn’t exactly a scoring juggernaut. He doesn’t shoot particularly well—only 42.1% FG and 26.4% 3P career—but he’s also far from a liability. His True Shooting Percentage (the metric that takes into account 2P, 3P, and FT) is just shy of 54% career; barring an anomalous 2nd year, he’s been over 80% FT for his career. Most importantly, he gets to the line a TON for a point guard. Per 36 minutes, Lowry has averaged 5.7 FTA career. In comparison, Rajon Rondo has averaged only 3.4 FTA career.

Just as importantly, Lowry’s passing game is impressive. His 2009-10 Assist Rate (number of assists per 100 possessions) was 30.52. By comparison, one LeBron James’s 2009-10 AR was 23.42.

Overall, Lowry is a tough, gritty defender; an average shooter, but also a player who knows that his best asset is to attack the rim; and a more than capable passer. In short, he’s exactly the type of addition I would like to see the Cavs make to their backcourt, especially if Byron Scott’s “run on offense / lock down on defense” strategy is going to come to fruition.

Before I get too excited, I should note that the Rockets have stated that they will match any offer sheet to Lowry in free-agency. So we’ll have to wait 7 days to find out if he’s actually coming to Cleveland. But if he is, I personally will be thrilled.

-T

The Spirit of Competition

Tue, 13 Jul 2010 01:00:00 -0700

After taking some time to think about LeBron James’s basketball version of The Bachelor this past Thursday night, one thing has remained constant for me:

I’m saddened by the fact that I will no longer be able to watch James and Dwyane Wade try to kill each other on the basketball court.

Back in April when James spoke regretfully of how guys in the league didn’t hate each other anymore, like how they did in the great rivalries of yesteryear, I was rather enthusiastic about his future. I believed we were seeing a young man transform into a fierce competitor, that this was an extension of the mentality we witnessed at the end of the ‘09 playoffs when he didn’t shake hands with the Orlando Magic. I was hoping he would help lead a sea change amongst his peers, that I’d never ever have to hear about Chris Paul eating dinner with Tony Parker the night before a Hornets-Spurs playoff game like I did in 2008.

Competitive zeal is, in my mind, a critical component of sports, and one of the major reasons I enjoy watching them so much.

So never did I think it would come to this. To James teaming up with his two buddies from the Olympic team, so they could hold hands while they chase after rings, wearing matching suits and playing for the franchise that tanked its last two seasons and retired the jersey of a competitor. But I suppose after watching James play a completely angst-less, mentally absent, series against the Boston Celtics in the second round of this year’s playoffs, I shouldn’t have been surprised.

At the same time, in a way, James has also fulfilled the promise of his post-game comments: he’s made the Miami Heat the most hated team in the NBA. The tragic part about this, however, is that he didn’t do it by creating rivalries on the court, he did it by acting narcissistic and completely unaware in front of the entire world on a ridiculous TV show that was then exacerbated by a pro wrestling style introduction in Miami the following day.

I, for one, will always associate the impact of “The Decision” itself with the children in the audience who gasped in horror when James said he was going to “take [his] talents to South Beach.”

And this is certainly how much of Cleveland felt - or would have felt if James’s image as a competitor and teammate loving fun guy hadn’t already been chipped away at during, and especially after, the aforementioned Boston series. Ironically, James and the Cavaliers now have the potential to create one of the biggest rivalries in league history - Miami versus Cleveland.

As soon as the Cavaliers can get back to being championship caliber competitive, and let’s all hope it’s before James’s career is over, a Miami-Cleveland playoff series might just be the most dramatic storyline/ hatred-filled group of games anyone could ever dream up. You thought Brett Favre versus the Packers was something? You thought Derek Fisher took heat in Utah after he left to play for the Lakers? Shaq versus Kobe? Forget it. This would really be LeBron James versus Cleveland and, by extension, the rest of the world.

In fact, this could be the kind of thing that actually galvanized the city, and the perception of the city from afar, in a positive direction.

And as a side note, let’s not forget that the Cavs gave the Heat the worst drubbing in NBA history.

As for this coming season, I’ll do my best to not feel completely out of whack. It will be very strange to finding myself rooting for teams that play Miami that I normally despise, teams like the Magic and the Lakers.

Noted: I have one more LBJ column to write, for Thursday, about the confusing psychology of his decision and the reason it’s so hard for people in Cleveland to understand, and then I will have officially moved on.

In the meantime, the Cavs will compete in a summer league game in Las Vegas tonight at 6 PM Eastern. Christian Eyenga, Danny “DDR” Green, and JJ “Glitch” Hickson are the key players. In my mind, it’s a glitch that JJ still needs to play in the summer league, since this will be his third season in the NBA.

The 2010-11 Cavs: Dirty Projections

Mon, 12 Jul 2010 00:22:22 -0700

Since LeBron announced his decision to “take [his] talents to South Beach” last Thursday night, I’ve seen a couple of different people pose questions to NBA pundits about the Cavs’ fate for next year. Specifically, how many games should we anticipate they’ll be able to win without James in the line-up?

The consensus answer from those pundits seems to be “not many.” Big surprise. Specifically, 30 wins seems to be about the best case scenario the pundits believe Cavs fans can hope for.

Of course, the pundits who were asked this question weren’t people who I would expect are using advanced statistics in their projections. I, on the other hand, anticipate that the team will be better than most of the rest of the people in the country would think, because I know how well many of the players on the roster rate in metrics that the average fan (and average pundit) aren’t considering. For instance, when the idea of Toronto signing-and-trading Chris Bosh to the Cavs was being heavily discussed, our buddy Chad Ford (one half of T.I.T.) made the point that the Cavs could potentially use the deal to unload a bad contract like…Anderson Varejao’s. Whereas we here at Mesa have regarded Andy as the Cavs’ second-best player since about 2006.

But since “better than these other guys think” still isn’t a good answer to “How good do you think the 2010-11 Cavs will be?”, I decided I would use Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes (WP48) to build a rough model that would spit out some actual numbers.

Here are the parameters I set:

I can only use players who are actually under contract for next year
I’m excluding Delonte because Chris Grant has all but said that he will be cut or traded prior to his contract becoming guaranteed early next month
There is a total of 240 minutes per game to distribute among the roster, since 5 players have to be on the floor for 48 minutes (5 x 48 = 240)
The starting 5 will be Mo at 1, Parker at 2, Moon at 3, Jamison at 4, Varejao at 5
Each starter will average 36 minutes per game.
JJ will be the 6th man, and will average 20 minutes per game
Sebastian Telfair will be the “most likely to DNP” and will only average 4 minutes per game
All of the other subs on the roster will average 9 minutes per game
Each player will play all 82 games

If use each player’s WP48 from the 2009-10 season and the minutes-per-game assumptions above, we get the following projection.

Varejao = .179 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 11 wins

Mo = .136 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 8.4 wins

Moon = .131 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 8.1 wins

Hickson = .123 WP48 x 20 mpg x 82 games = 4.2 wins

Gibson = .117 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.8 wins

Jamison = .115 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 games = 7.1 wins

Parker = .103 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 games = 6.3 wins

Powe = .097 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.5 wins

Green = .083 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.3 wins

Jawad = .069 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.1 wins

Telfair = .020 WP48 x 4 mpg x 82 games = 0.1 wins

TOTAL PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 51 wins

Now, supposedly the WP48 statistic only accounts for 80% of wins. If we assume that to be true, then we should adjust this 51-win total by dropping it 20%.

TOTAL ADJUSTED PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 41 wins

The problem here is that it’s flawed to assume that these players are going to be able to play the same way without LeBron that they did with LeBron. In that sense, it’s misleading to use their 2009-10 WP48 stats in a projection. It’s likely more accurate to use their career WP48 stats.

Admittedly, this revised model would still be a very rough one, since there are some players—Andy, Jawad, Boobie, Hickson, and Danny Green—who have played with LeBron for their entire NBA careers. But it’s the best we can do right now.

When we plug career WP48 stats into the model, we get these numbers:

Varejao = .156 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 = 9.6 wins

Mo = .095 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 = 5.8 wins

Moon = .122 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 = 7.5 wins

Hickson = .116 WP48 x 20 mpg x 82 = 4.0 wins

Gibson = .107 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 = 1.6 wins

Jamison = .118 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 = 7.3 wins

Parker = .100 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 = 6.2 wins

Powe = .183 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 = 2.8 wins

Green = .083 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 = 1.7 wins

Jawad = .068 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 = 1.0 wins

Telfair = .013 WP48 x 4 mpg x 82 = 0.1 wins

TOTAL PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 48 wins

Again, if we drop this “best case” number by 20%, we get something likely much closer to reality.

TOTAL ADJUSTED PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 38 wins

In short, WP48 suggests that the pundits are, as usual, low-balling the Cavs. It’s possible that the team could still be competing for the final playoff spot in the East next season, even if they made absolutely no adjustments to their roster. Granted, this would take a remarkable level of health and consistency from all players involved, but it’s not out of the question.

However, we’re undoubtedly going to see changes to the roster in the coming weeks. My personal hope is that those changes are geared toward making the team better in the long run rather than the short. But as it stands now, we should feel comfortable that the Cavs are not going to be a 15-win team. Cold comfort if you consider where we thought the team was only a few months ago, but the first step towards improvement is realism. Hopefully the front office agrees.

-T

The Next Phase

Fri, 09 Jul 2010 04:28:01 -0700

I’m fairly certain that we probably have enough material from tonight to write a post every day for the rest of the summer. There’s a ton to talk about. But due to some other obligations, first post on the exit of LeBron James and its implications for the future of the Cavs won’t be up until a little later. Til then, check the Mesa twitter feed to hold you over. Mike put in work today (with a few scattered contributions from yours truly).

One thought to leave you with, though: if I had one minor wish for this situation, it would be for no Cavs fan to ever boo James. Not because I don’t think he deserves it on some level (not so much for the decision, but for the way he handled it), but because historically, heckling has made him a better player. If he couldn’t be the guy to win it in Cleveland, I certainly don’t want to help encourage him to become the guy to win it in Miami. Shouting insults and burning jerseys could add fuel to the fire. And for the rest of his career, I want that fire to stay at the same low temperature it’s been at since he quit in the semis against Boston.

Much more from us soon.

-T

A Look at NWO: The Wolfpack Through WP48

Thu, 08 Jul 2010 07:13:44 -0700

A Look at NWO: The Wolfpack Through WP48:

Interesting look at a Wade-James-Bosh trio from the WP48 guys, via the Wall Street Journal.

The Patient Was the King and the King is Dead

Wed, 07 Jul 2010 23:05:12 -0700

Please read DAD’s rather astute and sober post below first.

My snap comments on the news - which seems firm - that LeBron will pull up lame and join the competition in South Beach, rewarding a franchise with few fans that tanked for multiple years to roll the dice on a high stakes gamble, are best read on Twitter.