February 16, 2010
The Doomsday Scenario

Me being me, I will always stress calm until the last possible moment. And, in truth, the final moment - the moment when fear and anxiety move out of your imagination and become reality - may be the most freeing.

At that point, it’s all over. There’s nothing else to do but accept it.

For the NBA, the Cavaliers, and Cavaliers’ fans, that moment arrives on Thursday at 3 PM EST.

I haven’t been too concerned with the trade deadline so far. I’ve been intrigued by it. I’ve enjoyed analyzing the different possibilities and offering my perspective on how each player might affect the Cavs on the floor. I’ve had fun attempting to weigh and measure the various front office machinations: Riley versus Ferry. Gilbert versus the salary cap. Cleveland versus the world.

But I was never really stressed. Nor should I have been. After all, it’s out of my hands.

Last night, and especially tonight, that changed.

When I first heard on the radio that Danny “DDR” Green was being mentioned in the Amar’e trade talks, my stomach sank a little bit.

I have an affinity for DDR because he wasn’t afraid to tell Anthony Parker (a player he may already be better than) that he wanted to be “one of the greats” when it was all said and done and his career was over.

I and am therefore against him being traded. I know this flies in the face of what I said before when discussing the idea of moving J.J. Hickson - mainly that the future is only slightly valuable when you have the ability to compete for a championship right now.

But allow me to be (slightly) irrational for a moment. And yes, I’m not really kidding about preferring Green to Parker.

Tonight my nerves got a little worse.

It happened when the infamous Woj reported that the Cavs were preparing to move off of Stoudemire and give up Jamario Moon, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and a number one draft pick to get Mike James and Antawn Jamison from the Washington Wizards.

Although a Moon trade would open the door for DDR to get more playing time, I think this is way too much to give up for a 33-year-old PF who hasn’t made an unassisted 3P in four years and is still owed $28.4M.

(Edit: Chris Broussard later reported, via a source with the Wizards, that this offer was not accurate. I leave it to your discretion whom to trust - I just hope you read Tim’s post.)

Afterwards, the Knicks became the frontrunners to get Tracy McGrady from the Rockets, moving Jared Jeffries in the process, setting the stage to possibly sign two free agents to max deals in the summer.

It was then that the Doomsday scenario started to unfold:

The Cavs lose out on Amare. He is instead traded to Miami. Riley appeases Wade and maintains enough cap space in the summer to sign another max player besides Wade and Amar’e. Meanwhile, Ferry “fails” LeBron at the same time cap space opens up in NYC. And the Cavs end up with a frontline that features a slew of guys in their mid to late 30’s (Jamison, Z, Shaq).

What many saw, myself included, as a potentially massive coup for the two Dan’s - getting Amar’e and his Bird Rights now, which would enable the Cavaliers to sign two max free agents, both him and LeBron, without any cap space in the vaunted Summer of 2010 - would be gone while arguably more appealing situations opened up simultaneously in New York and Miami.

We can talk about how valuable Amar’e is, whether or not he should be a max player, or if he can play any defense, but none of that on-court stuff matters as much as the above. Roster manipulation. That is really the move Ferry is trying to make. He’s trying to head off the New York-Miami Doomsday scenario.

Of course, the actual Doomsday event won’t happen until we hear LeBron has signed with a team other than Cleveland early on in July. And that probably will only happen if the Cavs don’t win a championship this season, which only complicates Ferry’s decision-making more. What if he makes LeBron happy right now by getting Amar’e, and then they fail to win the title and LeBron walks? Does Ferry think Jamison or Troy Murphy gives them a better shot? That could very well be what he’s wrestling with.

So i was wrong. There is no real Doomsday until July. But the preparations for the Apocalypse could very well be in full swing by Thursday at 3 PM EST.

February 14, 2010
For Non-Twitter Peeps

Ken Berger of CBSSports.com also writes that the Cavs’ front office is questioning how quickly the team can make the Amar’e - Shaq pairing work, weighing that against what they see as the long-term benefits of a Bron - Amar’e core.

February 12, 2010
Trade Deadline, Quick Post

Woj tweeted the above about 10:00pm PDT. A rather ominous tweet, to say the least. Let’s break this down…

*The Cavs smell blood. They see getting Stoudemire as a big chip in keeping LeBron, followed by a chance at multiple championships.

*Yes, Stoudemire is better than JJ on the offensive end of the floor - he can do everything JJ does but more intelligently, and he can pick and pop, and therefore spread the floor - but Stoudemire also costs 10x as much, and that’s if he opts in next season. If we’re talking about a big-time, multi-year max contract extension … well, that’s an additional story.

*After beating ORL again on Thursday night, the Cavs must be concerned about how the Magic defended J.J. and Andy to be pushing this hard to get a Stretch 4. In a 7 game series, could the Cavs get 36 points of production on 68% shooting out of the PF in 4 of those 7 games with the roster as currently constructed? Remember, this was also without Mo Williams, and with LeBron playing an extended amount of time at point.

*I’m not convinced the Cavs can beat the Lakers without Z. When it comes to the Suns, Ferry knows he can trust Steve Kerr - if the Amar’e deal goes down, I suspect Ferry will be close to 100% sure that Z will be bought out. Now, whether or not Z will want to return to the Cavs … that’s another unknown.

*Jamison is the guy the Spurs would trade for. High character, strong veteran presence, can score and rebound. Will also be 34 years old in June with $28.4M on his contract over two years. Decent production for right now, but any deal that’s being made has to have as much to do with the long-term future of the Cavs as it does the team winning a championship this season. I think we all believe that Cleveland has as good of a chance as any other team in the NBA to win it right now with the roster that’s currently in tact.

*Part of me wonders if the Amar’e talk is all organized posturing between two friends - Kerr and Ferry - who are willing to help each other create chaos in the marketplace in order to get the best deal possible from other teams.

*But I don’t know … I also see this as a potential pissing match between Dan Gilbert and Pat Riley - who was supposedly going all in to get Amar’e as of yesterday. No doubt that the Cavs getting Stat would royally fuck up the Heat’s plans and potentially prevent the ultimate disaster - Heat trade for Amar’e, Heat has his Bird Rights, they re-sign him, and then give Wade a max deal and bring Bron in on a max deal, too.

*I still want Iguodala. Holland still wants Troy Murphy. BJT68 wants Jamison. And LeBron wants … well, who knows what LeBron wants … all we know for sure is that LeBron is LeBron; he’s going to get what he wants.