For those of you not operating on the west coast (or who like to go to sleep at something resembling a reasonable hour), Suns beat writer Paul Coro is reporting that the Cavs are one of three teams that have recently been in trade talks with Phoenix regarding All-Star PF Amar’e Stoudemire.
Stoudemire is arguably the big-name player whose name has most often come up in trade chatter over the course of the past two seasons. Last year, the reports were that he was discontent with his role on the team since the arrival of Shaq. He’s also been portrayed as somewhat of a prima donna, as well as one of the 2010 free agents most likely to bolt his current home for other pastures.
However, we should take all of that with a large grain of salt—especially considering that the entire final paragraph of Coro’s report consists of Amar’e ripping favorite Mesa punching bag Chad Ford as a source of baseless misinformation. Incidentally, my new favorite player in the Pacific Division is Amar’e Stoudemire.
Now, while Brian Windhorst says that he has not personally heard this rumor (the one about the Cavs inquiring about Amar’e, not the one about Chad Ford being a dufus—which is not a rumor, but rather a scientific fact), he also writes that he trusts Coro, who apparently has a long track record of credibility (including being the first writer to report that the Cavs and Suns had restarted trade talks re: Shaq back in June). In fact, Windy trusts Coro enough that he put together a detailed analysis of how such a trade would / wouldn’t work for the Cavs at about 2 AM Eastern Time this morning.
In brief, Windhorst suggests that it’s not impossible that the Suns would be willing to trade Stoudemire for a package of Z, Glitch, and (potentially) future draft picks. By buying out Z, the Suns could save $10M or more in the move. That said, the entire scenario would be contingent on the Suns’ being unable to get any kind of commitment from Stoudemire prior to the trade deadline about signing a new contract in Phoenix this summer. But considering that any agent worth his salt isn’t likely to tip his hand on that front, it seems like a plausible scenario.
The main basketball obstacle to this trade—at least, from Windhorst’s point of view, though I expect it to be parroted by most of the other talking heads soon—is the reunion of Shaq and Amar’e on the same team. Windhorst tweeted that this “wasn’t a dream pairing” in Phoenix, then went on to mention in the analysis that Shaq and Amar’e play with opposing styles that conflict with one another.
To me, this sounds like the new incarnation of the “Shaq won’t work on the Cavs because he’ll clog the lane” argument that we heard ad nauseam for the first 20 or so games of this season. You know, until the Cavs took over the best record in the East and punched the Lakers in the mouth twice in the span of a month.
Here’s what our friends at 82games tell us: in 2008-9, Shaq and Amar’e played 1075 minutes on the floor together, equivalent to about 22.5 full games. Cumulatively, line-ups that involved both of them simultaneously were +83 in unadjusted +/-. Per game, these line-ups netted a +3.7. These numbers make the pairing of Shaq and Amar’e the third most productive pairing on the Suns’ roster in this particular rating system. Of pairings that logged more than 325 minutes together, only Amar’e + Nash (+216 in 1423 minutes, +7.3 net/game) and Amar’e + Grant Hill (+158 in 1200 minutes, +6.3 net/game) performed better.
As always, we should be cautious about placing too much stock in these numbers given that they’re unadjusted +/-. But with that warning in place, a +3.7 per game average certainly doesn’t suggest disaster to me. In fact, according to 82games, the Shaq / Amar’e pairing actually produced at a better +/- rate than either player racked up individually overall.
Even if these +/- numbers are light years off and the tandem is somehow toxic, Shaq is only averaging 23.0 minutes per game this season. Amar’e is averaging 34.7. I can’t predict what Coldstone’s rotations would look like, but I have to believe that about half the time Shaq is playing, Amar’e would be resting. (Obviously they would start together, but considering that Shaq normally heads to the bench 6-8 minutes into the first quarter, that only leaves 15-17 minutes that they could conceivably play together the rest of the way.) Do we really believe that a pairing of Shaq with Amar’e would be less productive than the current starting duo of Shaq and Glitch?
In short, the evidence I can find at this point tells me that this “conflicting styles” argument is suspect, at the very least.
Here’s what we can say about Amar’e’s individual performance this season: he’s at .144 WP48; averages 21.7 points and 8.9 TRB per 36 minutes; shoots 56% from the floor overall, 67% on “inside” shots (dunks, tips, and shots <10’), and 48.3% on jump shots.
Most of which suggests he would be a pretty strong acquisition. If WP48 is your Bible, there are other trades you’d rather see, but it’s certainly an improvement over what we have now. (JJ’s WP48 is .047, Z’s is -.012, Jawad’s is -.052.) If nothing else, Amar’e would certainly be a perception-altering player. He’s a multi-year All Star that could at least shut up the portion of the punditocracy who still likes to yap about Danny Ferry not bringing in any quality young help for Bron (which, as we know, is bogus). I would argue that the Cavs would win at least 10 games between the trade date and the end of the season just based off of the pure piss-yourself intimidation that would result from rolling out a starting line-up including Bron, Amar’e, and Shaq, but I don’t have numbers to back that up.
Will it happen? Seems like a relative long shot. I’m still betting we end up with Troy Murphy. But apparently, the possibility is alive. And for me, at least, it’s an exciting prospect.
-T
