January 25, 2010
Cavs-Heat Bazooka Point

Cavs pulled off another “we’re thankful the clock ran out when it did” victory tonight. They are now 3-0 without Mo Williams in the line-up and 2-0 without Delonte West. Their average point differential in those three games is +2.67, which includes one point wins over Miami and Oklahoma City.

It looks a lot like the Cavs are having problems winning without Mo … or is it really that they’re having problems winning without Delonte?

As the trade rumors begin to fly and mid-season reports come in, we can better evaluate where the Cavaliers stand, and where they should look to improve.

Before I started looking at the stats, I was less concerned about the Cavs future than I am right now.

I knew the team wasn’t getting much from Anthony Parker or J.J. Hickson (who was back to his usual low-rebounding self tonight: 1 board in 13 minutes). I also realized that Shaq was best-suited as a match-up player. I knew it hurt big-time to not have Delonte playing at his full capacity. And I also understood that LeBron was having another monster year - and when a player has monstrous, historic seasons they carry their team.

But I had no idea Mo Williams has essentially been ineffective.

Here are the numbers:

WP48: .091 (Below Average)
PER: 16.3 (Slightly Above Average)
Adjusted +/- ‘09-‘10: -3.56

And here’s an interesting statistic - with Mo on the court, the Cavs play 5 points better than average. With him off the court, they play 11.3 points better than average.

This means that Mo’s net on/off court +/- number is -6.3.

I think this is one of those spots where stats can be tricky. Mo is such a streaky shooter that I bet if I had the time to go back through the entirety of the Cavs season so far, we’d see big swings in his production and his +/-, some games he lights up the moon, and other games he sinks in the ocean.

In those latter games, Bron has to carry the offense.

I realize that I sound exactly like a typical national pundit when I write that … which is why I was so surprised to see that the Cavs are starting 4 players with below average production numbers and only 4 Cavs players in total have positive net on/off court +/- numbers: LeBron (+17.0), Andy (+19.5), Z (+3.3), and Delonte (+1.9)

What all of this suggests to me is that the Cavs are going to be vulnerable to close games in the playoffs. And we all know how those go … you want as few games as possible to come down to made free throws and missed fadeaway jumpers. Although the Cavs will win a lot of those games because of LeBron’s superior play - like ridiculous steals on ridiculous behind-the-back passes - they won’t win them all.

I’m going to wait a week or so to be completely convinced, but I’m becoming more and more convinced that the Cavs need to make a trade for a player who can create his own shots and play strong defense. And there’s one guy out there who fits the bill:

Andre Iguodala

As @WojYahooNBA reported earlier, the Sixers are pushing the Cavs to take him off their hands.

8:24pm  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/353779898/cavs-heat
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FILED UNDER: Cavs Heat Andre Iguodala Mo Williams 
January 21, 2010
Marc Stein's Latest Trade Column

Which includes this:

The Sixers are only growing more determined to make a deal before the deadline. I’ve heard that in strong terms from three different sources this week already. 

Which tells me we should expect to keep hearing more trade scenarios that include Andre Iguodala’s name. 

Foiled in its longstanding attempts to move Samuel Dalembert and/or Elton Brand, Philly has apparently come to realize that its best shot at a shake-it-up move is convincing one of the risk-taking/big-spending teams out there – such Houston, Dallas and Cleveland – to absorb the four years and $56.3 million remaining on Iguodala’s contract after this season. 

Not that I’d give the Sixers great hope of hooking Cleveland. 

The Cavs are still chasing a big man that can stretch the floor with 3-point range and continue to hope they can get one by peddling Zydrunas Ilgauskas’ expiring contract. 

Washington’s Antawn Jamison and Indiana’s Troy Murphy remain Cleveland’s top targets – with the further hope that Big Z will be released by his new team and thus eligible to be re-signed after a 30-day wait like Antonio McDyess in Detroit last season — as opposed to pursuing the likes of Iguodala or Golden State’s highly available Corey Maggette. 

Iguodala and Maggette have both been known to masquerade at the 4 spot in a small-ball setup but can’t really be classified as power forwards.

It will be very, very interesting to see how this plays out. The four players discussed, by last season’s numbers:

Andre Iguodala

WP48: .193
RAPM: 3.056

Corey Maggette

WP48: -.007
RAPM: -1.588

Note: Last year for Maggette was a statistical anomaly.

Troy Murphy

WP48: .369
RAPM: -.449

Antawn Jamison

WP48: .157
RAPM: -1.279

While I know there’s been a lot of analysis about the Cavs need for a stretch 4, I think the real concern is scoring. Efficient scoring, obviously. The reason for this is simple - Mo Williams is a streaky player. On the nights where he doesn’t have it going, the Cavs’ offense struggles. The team could use another player who can get 30 if they need it.

I’ve written about how crowded the Cavs are up front. Obviously, they also have a lot of options at the 2 … but they also, potentially, have more trade chips there (Jawad and Boobie), and Iguodala is not only very productive, he’s also a fantastic defensive player.

I still feel that Troy Murphy is probably the most likely addition to the Cavs roster before the deadline, but there’s no denying that “AI9” is a top tier 2 guard, who’s still young, and who - with Shaq and LeBron already on the roster - would probably make the Cavs the strongest team in the NBA.

7:12am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/346048942/marc-steins-latest-trade-column
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FILED UNDER: Cavs Trades Antawn Jamison Troy Murphy Corey Maggette Andre Iguodala