I’ve had a couple of different conversations with Mike and my dad over the course of the past few days about Antawn Jamison’s overall performance as a Cavalier. I did not see the trade as a definite problem-solving upgrade when it happened, and I’ve only rarely been impressed with him since. Of course, I also feel like practically every time I check the box score, he shot 50% and got a double-double.
Brian Windhorst made a couple of points about Jamison during a radio segment earlier this week that pushed the issue even further. Tonight, I felt I needed to sit down and do an honest accounting of Jamison to find out whether or not my in-game feelings about him—particularly on offense—are accurate or not. So, here goes. (Thanks in advance to our friends at Hoop Data and Basketball Reference for the numbers.)
First, the basics. In the 16 games since coming to the Cavs, Jamison’s per-36 minute averages are 16.2 points on 47.6%FG (including 34.6%3P), 8.8 TRB, 1.7 AST, 1.3 STL, 0.7 BLK, 1.5 TO, and 3.0 PF. Pretty solid.
In his 41 games as a Wizard this year (which is a ridiculous-sounding sentence, if you take it out of context), his per-36 minute averages were 19.0 points on 45.0%FG (including 34.5%3P), 8.2 TRB, 1.2 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.4 BLK, 1.4 TO, and 2.5 PF.
This means that since the trade, he’s improved in almost all the traditional categories. FG%, 3P%, total rebounding, assists, steals, and blocks are all up. There’s a negligible difference in his turnovers, and his fouls have increased by 0.5.
However, you’ll notice that even though Jamison’s FG% is up, his per-36 minute scoring is actually down. This is entirely because of his bizarre struggles at the free throw line. For his career, Jamison shoots a passable 72.9% from the stripe. In his 16 games as a Cav, he’s plunged to 44%—the worst percentage on the team. He’s also getting 1.5 fewer FTAs per 36 minutes in Cleveland than in Washington.
Still, from these numbers, he appears to be a strong net positive for the team. But is this the whole story?
Let’s dig a little deeper.
One of Windhorst’s points in the podcast was that Jamison has been phenomenal at creating his own shot. Actually, this is completely untrue. As a Cavalier, Jamison has been assisted on 80.4% of his shots at the rim, which eclipses his previous high of 65.0% last season (to be fair, most of these advanced stats only go back to the 2007 season, so keep that in mind).
In fact, Jamison the Cavalier hasn’t been very good at creating his own shot anywhere on the floor. His most independent mark comes on FGAs closer than 10 feet, where he’s assisted on only 46.2%. On 16-23 footers, though, he’s assisted 85.7% of the time. And on both 10-15 footers and 3 pointers, he is at 100%. Yes, that means that Jamison has never created one of those two types of shots for himself since coming to Cleveland.
That said, none of these shot-creation statistics are really anomalous for Jamison’s career, with the exception of the percentage of assists he’s receiving at the rim. Since 2007, he’s never been assisted on fewer than 95% of his 3s, or 79.3% of his 16-23 footers. His shots from 10-15 feet (now assisted 100%) were assisted 80% of the time earlier this year in Washington. So in all of these facets, the Cavs’ coaching staff and front office shouldn’t exactly be surprised by what they’re getting.
I also don’t want to lose sight of the fact that a shot being assisted is not necessarily a bad thing. After all, they’re worth the same amount of points regardless of how hard an individual player has to work to get them. So regardless of how often he’s assisted, how well is he actually shooting from each of these distances?
The news here is mixed. Jamison is finishing at the rim at 61.3%, which is 1.0% worse than Pau Gasol. However, 61.3% is also his worst career performance since 2007—though only by a slim margin. On the flip side, he’s shooting a career-high 59% from less than 10’. But the news from there is all down-hill. Jamison is shooting 33.3% from 10-15’, 35% from 16-23’, and 34.5% from 3P—all of which are consistent with his career averages since 2007.
Windhorst’s other point from the podcast was that Cavs’ officials seem to be a bit disappointed with Jamison’s accuracy from the perimeter. If they are, they haven’t been paying attention to the numbers.
What about his shot selection, though? If Jamison’s generally avoiding the shots he’s worst at, the different FG percentages take on a completely different light. The good news is that Jamison is taking the most attempts (5.0 per game) at the rim, his area of greatest shooting efficiency, and the least attempts per game (0.6) from his most inefficient zone, 10-15’. The bad news is that he then goes in almost complete reverse order. His 2nd most attempts per game (3.3) come from beyond the arc (34.5%3P), 3rd most attempts from 16-23’ (35%FG), and ironically, 4th most attempts (1.5) from less than 10’—his second most efficient shooting range (59%FG).
This last point is where, in the JMID view, there’s potential for trouble. The surface reason for getting Jamison was to add a “stretch 4” to open up the paint even further for other players. The Cavs’ game against the Hornets on Wednesday was a great example of how well this can work if the opponent commits to keeping a man on Jamison at the perimeter. However, if I’m an opposing coach, I look at these numbers and see that Jamison essentially only makes 1 out of every 3 shots he launches from beyond 9’. 33% is a chance I’ll take all day. I dare Jamison to knock down significantly more than that before I start keeping a defender on him wide.
One caveat is Jamison’s 3P%. 34.5% is not great. But it’s better than Kobe and identical to Bron. Effective FG%, or eFG%, a statistic that adjusts shooting percentages to account for the fact that success on a 3 pointer is more significant than success on a 2 pointer, suggests that shooting 34.5%3P is as good as shooting 51.0% from anywhere inside the arc. So, that puts things into a slightly more positive light.
Jamison’s real problem from a shooting efficiency standpoint is his tendency to send long 2s. The reality is that if he’s not shooting from under 10’, he might as well be gunning for triples. He has basically the same risk but a greater reward.
In conclusion, even though we’re only dealing with 16 games, the numbers seem to suggest that what we’re seeing from Jamison offensively right now is about what we should expect. The hovering cloud is whether or not what we’re seeing now will ultimately be enough come playoff time.
Well, the orthodox Cavs fans got what they wanted. Antawn Jamison is officially a Cleveland Cavalier.
If you’re a regular reader, you shouldn’t be surprised to hear that I have very mixed feelings about this one. Admittedly, part of this has little to do with Jamison and much more to do with how the non-acquisition of Stoudemire affects the rest of the NBA landscape.
For now, though, let’s talk Jamison.
The good news is that this deal is another Danny Ferry special. Over the past three years, I would argue that no front office in the league has done a better job of leveraging their assets to create lop-sided deals than the Cavs’. This trade is no different. To bargain Ernie Grunfeld down to taking only Z’s contract and the Cavs’ 2010 first rounder (which, in all likelihood, should be no higher than #29 overall) along with the pieces provided by the Clippers, is commendable. It keeps both JJ and Danny Green on the roster, giving them time to further develop and (hopefully) become consistent future impact players.
The bad news is that today, Antawn Jamison is already 33 years old. This means that Ferry’s two trades of consequence from this season have brought in two players with a combined age of 70. Not exactly the age bracket I was hoping the team would use to upgrade. It feels a little Celtics / Spurs-like, and those are not necessarily two teams that I want the Cavs to bear a resemblance to (at least in this regard. The banners would be nice.)
The good news is that, if sources are to be believed, Jamison is the guy that LeBron specifically told the front office to go out and get this season. Jamison fits the bill of the coveted “stretch 4” that Bron must believe will shore up one of the Cavs main offensive weaknesses. Well, the front office got him. In theory, this should make LeBron a very satisfied man.
The bad news is that, as Tom Haberstroh detailed in an article we linked to earlier this week, Jamison had better be stretching the defense out past the three point arc, because his mid-range game is dreadful. He’s hitting 10-15 footers at a ghastly 35%, and 16-23 footers at 38%. For reference, his 3PT% is 34.5% this year, which is right at his career average and not exactly blistering. So he shoots essentially the same from distance as from 10-15’. This really begs the question of why he would ever shoot a jumper from 10-15’.
The good news is that Jamison finishes effectively in the paint—63.6% on shots “at the rim” and 47.3% from 10 feet and under. And the reality is that those mid-range numbers quoted above are still monumentally better than JJ’s (28.4% on all jump shots this year. Yikes.)
The bad news is that for the offensive advantages he may bring, there’s evidence to suggest that Jamison *could* be even more of a defensive liability than Glitch. Which, even as I write it, seems like I have to be making it up. But as John Krolik points outs in his own detailed trade analysis:
Over the last few years, the Wizards give up around 112 points per 100 possessions when Jamison is on the floor. That’s really bad. I was concerned about Stoudemire’s defense, and the Suns have historically given up around 108 points per 100 possessions with Amar’e on the floor. A big reason for getting Jamison was because of how bad Hickson has been defensively, and the Cavs give up around 109 points per 100 when Hickson plays.
The good news is that the Wizards have never been anything remotely resembling a good defensive team, so it’s hard to tell how much of that has really been Jamison’s fault. In fact,there’s even reason to believe that Jamison’s defensive numbers will improve—maybe even dramatically—when he’s plugged into the Cavs’ rotation. Kevin Arnovitz wrote an excellent article about this phenomenon during the Cavs’ domination of the first two rounds of last year’s playoffs. In case you don’t want to read the whole thing, here’s the most consequential section (keep in mind the first paragraph is just for context, since those numbers obviously don’t apply to this year’s team):
Cleveland has whittled its 99.4 points/100 possessions defensive rating (3rd best out of 30), down to a minuscule 90.8/100 in its two postseason series. Granted, Atlanta and Detroit weren’t exactly offensive juggernauts, but their respective offensive ratings in the regular season of 106.6 and 104.5 suggest that the Cavs are tightening their defensive vise with brutal efficiency.
The Cleveland roster isn’t composed of guys you’d immediately classify as defensive stoppers. With a defensive rating in the 104 range (number of points allowed per 100 possessions as an individual defender), Delonte West has been rightfully praised for his defense. West’s defensive ratings in the four seasons prior to this one? 107, 107, 108, 108. As a Milwaukee Buck, Mo Williams had a reputation as a horrendous defender (and the numbers to prove it), but for Cleveland this season, he’s been downright gritty, and his defensive rating dropped from 114 to 106. Did Williams just miraculously grow defensive fangs? Even Wally Szczerbiak, Ukrainian for “has lost some lateral quickness,” is posting career-best numbers in various advanced defensive metrics. Nothing eye-popping, but more than passable.
The caption on the photo in the article pretty much sums it up: “The Cavs defense: where average defenders become good defenders, and good defenders become great defenders.” Jamison may be in the twilight of his career, but he’s still got enough athleticism and energy to be effective in Coldstone’s help-and-recover scheme. (Just don’t talk to me if 16 months from now he’s limping around the court on one leg like Kevin Garnett.)
The bad news is that I would’ve made this same argument about Amar’e Stoudemire had the Cavs acquired him instead. That would’ve wiped out arguably STAT’s biggest weakness and left a much higher ceiling than what the team is getting with Jamison.
The good news is that Jamison rebounds almost as well as Stoudemire. This season, Antawn is averaging 8.2 TRB / 36 minutes; STAT averages 8.9 TRB / 36 minutes. However, STAT also turns the ball over twice as much as Jamison this season—2.8 TOV / 36 min vs. 1.4 TOV / 36 min—while both players are about even in Steals / 36 min (1.0 for Jamison, 0.9 for Amar’e).
So if we expand the lens a little and consider the number of possessions per 36 minutes that each player gets for their team as TRB + STL - TOV, Jamison actually comes out ahead (8.2 TRB + 1.0 STL - 1.4 TOV = 7.8 possessions for Jamison, vs. 8.9 TRB + 0.9 STL - 2.8 TOV = 7.0 possessions for Stoudemire). This is an encouraging sign, especially in thinking ahead about tight playoff games where a bad turnover by the PF can cost your team the game.
The bad news is that because the Cavs didn’t get Stoudemire, the Doomsday Scenario Mike outlined yesterday is still hypothetically in play. Phoenix reportedly cut off talks with Stoudemire’s agent on an extension this morning, increasing the likelihood that they would try to trade him. With the Cavs now out of the picture, that seems to leave the Heat as the only bidder.
The good news, though, is that it seems increasingly likely that the Suns are NOT actually going to trade Stoudemire before the deadline. Amar’e was not held out of the Suns’ game tonight (which would’ve been customary if a deal was imminent), and all along the Heat have have been unable to put together a package of any real appeal to the Suns. Hypothetically, this could change if Riley either softens on his stance of holding back Michael Beasley from the deal, or manages to pull in a third team. But at this point, their last supposed offer of Dorrell Wright, Quentin Richardson, Daequan Cook, Mario Chalmers, and picks is not going to get the job done (especially since Phoenix only has two roster spots open for those 4 players).
The bad news is that one of the other components of the Doomsday Scenario could still go down. Late tonight, the Rockets agreed to trade Tracy McGrady and Carl Landry to the Kings for Kevin Martin (w/some additional players on each side). However, some sources are still saying that this trade could either be expanded to a three-teamer with the Knicks, or else the Kings could hypothetically do a straight-up swap with the Knicks after the completion of their deal with the Rockets. Of course, the Kings would have to be willing to settle for the package that couldn’t entice Houston to do the deal with them straight-up in the first place: Jordan Hill, Jared Jeffries’ contract, Larry Hughes, and picks. But if they’re willing to make that trade, then the Knicks get within an Eddy Curry buy-out of the space to sign two max free agents this summer.
The good news is that if the Cavs win the title this year, it sort of doesn’t matter how much cap space the Knicks have. It seems ludicrous that Bron would bolt rather than defend a title in Cleveland.
The bad news is that one of the pieces that made the Cavs seem like a lock to get to the Finals during the first 54 games of the season may not be returning. It’s all but certain that the Wizards are going to buy out Z, putting him back on the market. But he’s already getting interest from some other playoff teams, such as Denver and Dallas, who would want him to help fill out their own lacking big men rotations and match length with the Lakers.
The good news is that the Cavs can offer Z their entire bi-annual exception ($1.99M) to re-sign him, whereas the Mavericks have only the $900,000 veteran’s minimum. And, as Z’s agent says, “I think his heart is in Cleveland, that’s for sure.” Given his history with the team and the team’s chances to make that elusive run this year, I really want to believe that it’s a foregone conclusion that Z will be back in a Cavaliers uniform in mid-March.
The bad news is that it’s not a certainty.
At the end of the day, the reality is that my final feelings on the trade aren’t going to be resolved for a while. Part of it will depend on what happens in the final hours of the trade deadline; part of it will depend on whether or not the Cavs are able to re-sign Z; part of it will depend on whether Jamison does work in their defensive system; and part of it will depend on whether or not they’re actually able to bring home the Larry O’ Brien trophy. That seems like a lame position to take, but to me, Jamison’s age and contract status—along with the potential loss of Z, whose length has been critical in frustrating the Lakers and a few other teams who try to outsize their opponents—mean that this year is going to be their best shot. Jamison is only going to get older. And while he’s currently still productive, it’s by no means a lock that he’s going to be able to keep that up for another two years, especially at a rate that’s proportional to his ~$14M / yr contract.
However, I like that the Cavs held onto both JJ and (especially) DDR, brought in someone who’s more versatile offensively than JJ, a stronger rebounder than JJ, and a big who can space the floor even better in general because of being a long-range threat (even if he’s by no means a lights-out one). And even though it has nothing to do with basketball, the league-wide perception of Jamison is that he’s still a big enough star that the trade can be labeled a ‘blockbuster’ on ESPN and Yahoo! Sports. It doesn’t mean anything on the court, but as we’ve pointed out before, it’s still a factor.
So for the time being, I’m going to give Ferry a B- on this trade, with the caveat that I will immediately upgrade to a solid B if Z is back on the roster in 30 days. I can’t go higher than that because I just don’t see Jamison as a long-term solution, and even if the Stoudemire trade was never really going to happen, the idea that we could bring in another young gun to stick with LeBron for the next several seasons got my expectations up. And it also didn’t help that a source close to Jamison supposedly claimed this morning that he’d rather play for the Celtics than the Cavs.
Til all this stuff shakes out, though, let’s all concentrate on trying to convince Geoff Petrie that trading T-Mac to the Knicks is an awful, awful idea.
Me being me, I will always stress calm until the last possible moment. And, in truth, the final moment - the moment when fear and anxiety move out of your imagination and become reality - may be the most freeing.
At that point, it’s all over. There’s nothing else to do but accept it.
For the NBA, the Cavaliers, and Cavaliers’ fans, that moment arrives on Thursday at 3 PM EST.
I haven’t been too concerned with the trade deadline so far. I’ve been intrigued by it. I’ve enjoyed analyzing the different possibilities and offering my perspective on how each player might affect the Cavs on the floor. I’ve had fun attempting to weigh and measure the various front office machinations: Riley versus Ferry. Gilbert versus the salary cap. Cleveland versus the world.
But I was never really stressed. Nor should I have been. After all, it’s out of my hands.
Last night, and especially tonight, that changed.
When I first heard on the radio that Danny “DDR” Green was being mentioned in the Amar’e trade talks, my stomach sank a little bit.
I have an affinity for DDR because he wasn’t afraid to tell Anthony Parker (a player he may already be better than) that he wanted to be “one of the greats” when it was all said and done and his career was over.
I and am therefore against him being traded. I know this flies in the face of what I said before when discussing the idea of moving J.J. Hickson - mainly that the future is only slightly valuable when you have the ability to compete for a championship right now.
But allow me to be (slightly) irrational for a moment. And yes, I’m not really kidding about preferring Green to Parker.
Tonight my nerves got a little worse.
It happened when the infamous Woj reported that the Cavs were preparing to move off of Stoudemire and give up Jamario Moon, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and a number one draft pick to get Mike James and Antawn Jamison from the Washington Wizards.
Although a Moon trade would open the door for DDR to get more playing time, I think this is way too much to give up for a 33-year-old PF who hasn’t made an unassisted 3P in four years and is still owed $28.4M.
(Edit: Chris Broussard later reported, via a source with the Wizards, that this offer was not accurate. I leave it to your discretion whom to trust - I just hope you read Tim’s post.)
Afterwards, the Knicks became the frontrunners to get Tracy McGrady from the Rockets, moving Jared Jeffries in the process, setting the stage to possibly sign two free agents to max deals in the summer.
It was then that the Doomsday scenario started to unfold:
The Cavs lose out on Amare. He is instead traded to Miami. Riley appeases Wade and maintains enough cap space in the summer to sign another max player besides Wade and Amar’e. Meanwhile, Ferry “fails” LeBron at the same time cap space opens up in NYC. And the Cavs end up with a frontline that features a slew of guys in their mid to late 30’s (Jamison, Z, Shaq).
What many saw, myself included, as a potentially massive coup for the two Dan’s - getting Amar’e and his Bird Rights now, which would enable the Cavaliers to sign two max free agents, both him and LeBron, without any cap space in the vaunted Summer of 2010 - would be gone while arguably more appealing situations opened up simultaneously in New York and Miami.
We can talk about how valuable Amar’e is, whether or not he should be a max player, or if he can play any defense, but none of that on-court stuff matters as much as the above. Roster manipulation. That is really the move Ferry is trying to make. He’s trying to head off the New York-Miami Doomsday scenario.
Of course, the actual Doomsday event won’t happen until we hear LeBron has signed with a team other than Cleveland early on in July. And that probably will only happen if the Cavs don’t win a championship this season, which only complicates Ferry’s decision-making more. What if he makes LeBron happy right now by getting Amar’e, and then they fail to win the title and LeBron walks? Does Ferry think Jamison or Troy Murphy gives them a better shot? That could very well be what he’s wrestling with.
So i was wrong. There is no real Doomsday until July. But the preparations for the Apocalypse could very well be in full swing by Thursday at 3 PM EST.
Woj tweeted the above about 10:00pm PDT. A rather ominous tweet, to say the least. Let’s break this down…
*The Cavs smell blood. They see getting Stoudemire as a big chip in keeping LeBron, followed by a chance at multiple championships.
*Yes, Stoudemire is better than JJ on the offensive end of the floor - he can do everything JJ does but more intelligently, and he can pick and pop, and therefore spread the floor - but Stoudemire also costs 10x as much, and that’s if he opts in next season. If we’re talking about a big-time, multi-year max contract extension … well, that’s an additional story.
*After beating ORL again on Thursday night, the Cavs must be concerned about how the Magic defended J.J. and Andy to be pushing this hard to get a Stretch 4. In a 7 game series, could the Cavs get 36 points of production on 68% shooting out of the PF in 4 of those 7 games with the roster as currently constructed? Remember, this was also without Mo Williams, and with LeBron playing an extended amount of time at point.
*I’m not convinced the Cavs can beat the Lakers without Z. When it comes to the Suns, Ferry knows he can trust Steve Kerr - if the Amar’e deal goes down, I suspect Ferry will be close to 100% sure that Z will be bought out. Now, whether or not Z will want to return to the Cavs … that’s another unknown.
*Jamison is the guy the Spurs would trade for. High character, strong veteran presence, can score and rebound. Will also be 34 years old in June with $28.4M on his contract over two years. Decent production for right now, but any deal that’s being made has to have as much to do with the long-term future of the Cavs as it does the team winning a championship this season. I think we all believe that Cleveland has as good of a chance as any other team in the NBA to win it right now with the roster that’s currently in tact.
*Part of me wonders if the Amar’e talk is all organized posturing between two friends - Kerr and Ferry - who are willing to help each other create chaos in the marketplace in order to get the best deal possible from other teams.
*But I don’t know … I also see this as a potential pissing match between Dan Gilbert and Pat Riley - who was supposedly going all in to get Amar’e as of yesterday. No doubt that the Cavs getting Stat would royally fuck up the Heat’s plans and potentially prevent the ultimate disaster - Heat trade for Amar’e, Heat has his Bird Rights, they re-sign him, and then give Wade a max deal and bring Bron in on a max deal, too.
*I still want Iguodala. Holland still wants Troy Murphy. BJT68 wants Jamison. And LeBron wants … well, who knows what LeBron wants … all we know for sure is that LeBron is LeBron; he’s going to get what he wants.
The Sixers are only growing more determined to make a deal before the deadline. I’ve heard that in strong terms from three different sources this week already.
Which tells me we should expect to keep hearing more trade scenarios that include Andre Iguodala’s name.
Foiled in its longstanding attempts to move Samuel Dalembert and/or Elton Brand, Philly has apparently come to realize that its best shot at a shake-it-up move is convincing one of the risk-taking/big-spending teams out there – such Houston, Dallas and Cleveland – to absorb the four years and $56.3 million remaining on Iguodala’s contract after this season.
Not that I’d give the Sixers great hope of hooking Cleveland.
The Cavs are still chasing a big man that can stretch the floor with 3-point range and continue to hope they can get one by peddling Zydrunas Ilgauskas’ expiring contract.
Washington’s Antawn Jamison and Indiana’s Troy Murphy remain Cleveland’s top targets – with the further hope that Big Z will be released by his new team and thus eligible to be re-signed after a 30-day wait like Antonio McDyess in Detroit last season — as opposed to pursuing the likes of Iguodala or Golden State’s highly available Corey Maggette.
Iguodala and Maggette have both been known to masquerade at the 4 spot in a small-ball setup but can’t really be classified as power forwards.
It will be very, very interesting to see how this plays out. The four players discussed, by last season’s numbers:
Andre Iguodala
WP48: .193 RAPM: 3.056
Corey Maggette
WP48: -.007 RAPM: -1.588
Note: Last year for Maggette was a statistical anomaly.
Troy Murphy
WP48: .369 RAPM: -.449
Antawn Jamison
WP48: .157 RAPM: -1.279
While I know there’s been a lot of analysis about the Cavs need for a stretch 4, I think the real concern is scoring. Efficient scoring, obviously. The reason for this is simple - Mo Williams is a streaky player. On the nights where he doesn’t have it going, the Cavs’ offense struggles. The team could use another player who can get 30 if they need it.
I’ve written about how crowded the Cavs are up front. Obviously, they also have a lot of options at the 2 … but they also, potentially, have more trade chips there (Jawad and Boobie), and Iguodala is not only very productive, he’s also a fantastic defensive player.
I still feel that Troy Murphy is probably the most likely addition to the Cavs roster before the deadline, but there’s no denying that “AI9” is a top tier 2 guard, who’s still young, and who - with Shaq and LeBron already on the roster - would probably make the Cavs the strongest team in the NBA.
