Windhorst On Trade Options: JMID Stat Analysis

To steal a line from Ric Bucher, here’s my snap analysis - via advanced stats - on the stretch power forwards the Cavs are at least talking about attempting to trade for…

Anthony Randolph, Golden State Warriors (20 years old, 6’10”)

‘08-‘09 WP48: .137

‘08-‘09 RAPM: -1.498

Randolph is only 20 years old and already producing at an above average rate. His +/- number isn’t good, but he plays for Golden State - where no one’s is - and there’s plenty of reasons to think he will get better as he gets older and plays with an actual team, i.e. one that is not coached by Don Nelson.

Troy Murphy, Indiana Pacers (29 years old, 6’11”)

‘08-‘09 WP48: .369

‘08-‘09 RAPM: -.449

You read that right … according to Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes Troy Murphy was an absolute monster last season. The reasons stem largely from how he shot the three ball (over 2 makes a game at 45%) and how well he rebounded (12.5 TRB per 36).

His offensive +/- number was high, but his defensive number was terrible … which is where the negative rating comes from. The problem with Murphy is that last year may have been an aberration.

‘07-‘08 WP48: .163

‘06-‘07 WP48: .070

This year Troy’s shooting 37.2% from 3P and grabbing 9.2 TRB per 36 … so you see there has been a drop-off.

Antawn Jamison, Washington Wizards (33 years old, 6’8”)

‘08-‘09 WP48: .157

RAPM: -1.279

Jamison career numbers are good, but not great (‘07-‘08 WP48: .180 and ‘06-‘07 WP48: .125), and this season he’s been having problems with his shoulder, although he has been durable, playing at least 70 games 4 of the past 5 seasons (the other season he played 68).

Personally, I’d love to see the Cavs get a deal done for Randolph. He’s the best long-term option, has the athleticism and length to become a major defensive weapon, and is the type of skilled big man that fits the new NBA model … which is important, given the fact that the Cavs frontcourt is in transition. With Varejao likely moving to the 5 next season, the team will need a complement. And maybe the Cavs can teach him how to shoot the 3…

Snap analysis, so I reserve the right to change my opinion in the near future.