August 16, 2009
Baseball Helmets: The Melon Conundrum

An article appeared late last week in The New York Times about MLB batting helmets and player safety.  The occasion for said article is the pending release of a new helmet by Rawlings called the S100 (pictured above).

The structure and materials of the S100 make it the most protective batting helmet in history. It gets its name from the fact that in laboratory testing, it was able to withstand direct hits by fastballs at speeds of 100mph without denting.  (Apparently, the model currently used by most major league hitters will dent if hit by a pitch in excess of 70mph.)

However, rather than jumping at the opportunity to upgrade to the newer model, a lot of players are rejecting the S100 outright.

Their main beef? Apparently, it offends their fashion sense.

“No, I am absolutely not wearing that,” Mets right fielder Jeff Francoeur said with a laugh after seeing a prototype, as if he were being asked to put a pumpkin on his head. “I could care less what they say, I’m not wearing it. There’s got to be a way to have a more protective helmet without all that padding. It’s brutal. We’re going to look like a bunch of clowns out there.

For reference, here is a picture of Jeff Franceour (at right):

Here are some pictures of other Major League Baseball players:

[Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals]

[Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds]

[Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies]

[Johnny Damon, pre-New York Yankees]

My point is this:  most baseball players are doing a bang-up job of making themselves look like complete dufuses even when a helmet isn’t involved. So to reject the S100 on the basis of style impairment is ridiculous.

(Sidebar: can we all just take a moment to appreciate the fact that the image of Johnny Damon that best illustrated his goon-ishness came from his WEDDING?! OK, let’s continue…)

By no means am I petitioning for some kind of new equipment mandate. I’m a big believer in freedom of choice. Baseball players are grown men, and if they would rather put themselves in greater danger of injury rather than wear a bulkier helmet, I’m fine with that. 

However, I am also a big believer in making choices based on evidence. Proof of that belief is all over this blog. And choosing more dangerous headgear based on style when: A) you’re already wearing a league-mandated uniform, B) that uniform already includes a helmet when you’re in the batter’s box, and C) off the field, your sport is unofficially known as the most ridiculously dressed of any professional sport…it just doesn’t hold up.

The more interesting question than any of this Joan Rivers analysis is…how necessary is a more protective helmet for player safety?

This is an especially pertinent time to ask this question because of what happened this weekend.  Ian Kinsler got intentionally tagged in the head by a 91mph fastball Saturday. David Wright got beaned in the dome by Giants ace Matt Cain the same day. The velocity on that pitch? 93mph.

Incidentally, Dodgers pitcher Hiroki Kuroda was victimized by a line shot hit back at him while he was on the mound last night, as well. Not that we can realistically expect pitchers to wear batting helmets while they’re pitching, but it’s just another reminder that this is a game that’s based on a hard ball being thrown or hit at speeds in the triple digits.

In all three of the above cases, it appears that the guys involved are going to be OK.  Wright was diagnosed with nothing more severe than a concussion. The team placed him on the 15-day DL today with the caveat that he could miss the rest of the season, though I assume that that’s more of a precautionary measure than anything else.  Kuroda was released from the hospital with nothing but a mild headache and will apparently make his next start. Ian Kinsler didn’t even come out of the game after he was plunked.

In separate segments, former sluggers Dave Winfield and Joe Morgan both made an interesting claim:  the problem isn’t the helmets. It’s that today’s batters “don’t know how to get out of the way of a fastball.”

To me, this seems strange. Getting out of the way of a fastball doesn’t strike me as a highly specialized skill - at least, not in the same sense as landing an airplane or cracking a safe.

However, I immediately put stock in just about anything baseball-related that comes out of Joe Morgan’s mouth. And considering that both he and Winfield played in an era where the batting helmets didn’t even have earflaps, both guys arguably had more incentive for working on their evasive action.

Either Buck Showalter or Peter Gammons also made a companion point:  pitchers today simply don’t know how to pitch inside the way the guys in the previous eras did. Brush-backs were much more of an art back then, and batters had more to fear because they didn’t have the elbow guards, hand guards, body armor, etc that allow the current crop of hitters to crowd the plate with near impunity.

My question is whether or not pitcher’s today are throwing (on average) harder than pitchers were in the days of Dave Winfield and Joe Morgan. I was unable to find any real data on this, although - full disclosure - I didn’t exactly spend my whole day trying to hunt it down.  I wasn’t even able to find when radar guns started being used in major league baseball, but I can now tell you that the first use of the machine was in 1954 by an Illinois State Highway patrolman. And man, would I have loved to see the reaction of the guy who got pulled over as a result of this pioneering use of technology.

Anyway, my suspicion is that there is a velocity difference, and that even if it’s only a few mph, that extra heat could be the difference between a batter getting completely clear of a fastball and getting hit, or even between turning a direct hit into a glancing blow.

One of the main arguments for the helmet currently favored by the pros is that in almost all cases, players still react enough to make sure that the ball isn’t striking them dead-on. Therefore, it’s completely irrelevant that the helmet will “fail” if hit squarely with a 71mph ball.

So sadly, the upshot of all of this is that I don’t know really know whether older ballplayers were more dexterous, older pitchers had better control on the inner half of the plate, or everyone’s just spewing garbage. Which, to be honest, really disappoints me.

Ironically, though, the last player quoted in the NYT article was fully in favor of the new helmet. That player? David Wright.

“If it provides more protection, then I’m all for it,” said Mets third baseman David Wright… “I’m not worried about style or looking good out there. I’m worried about keeping my melon protected.”

As this picture of Wright confirms, he’s serious about that second to last sentence.

-T

August 4, 2009
Backtracking

Didn’t see this immediately when the Roid Sox Nation story broke (fittingly, thanks to the New York Times), but…can someone explain to me when Jose Canseco decided to start talking like a cross between a conspiracy theorist and a Blackfoot shaman?

“When you tell me something I didn’t already know, I’ll be surprised…It’s not about naming names,” [Canseco] said. “I’ve never had anything against the players. It’s always been against Major League Baseball. I know who’s on that list, but like I said, it’s not about attacking the players. It’s about the machine that allowed this to happen. What I speak out of my mouth is the truth. It burns like fire. Just remember, I have never lied about this subject.”

My favorite thing about this: Canseco is right. He’s been absolutely on the ball every time - including when he claimed to have “stuff” on A-Rod. And while that’s not good news for Bud Selig, it’s great news for anyone like myself who is looking for Jose Canseco to stay in the pocket long enough to spout more wacky shit to reporters.

Oh, I also just stumbled on this on Canseco’s Wikipedia page. It’s got absolutely nothing to do with steroids, but it’s awesome enough to bear mentioning…

Apparently three days after the infamous outfield blooper where Canseco’s head turned a routine fly ball into a home run, he asked his manager to let him pitch the 8th inning of blowout loss to the Red Sox. During the course of that inning, Canseco blew out the ligaments in his elbow. He had to have Tommy John surgery and was out for the remainder of the 1998 season.

Needless to say, I now like him even more than I did when I started this post.  Long live the Havana half of the Bash Brothers.

-T

July 26, 2009
OPS Primer

Yesterday, during a long talk with my dad about Cleveland sports, I came to the realization of just how much the conversation about sports has evolved since I was a kid and especially since my dad was a kid.

In covering the Cavs and the Indians (not much to say about the Browns right now), and discussing things like OPS and production per 48 minutes, I was stricken by the fact that my dad and I never could have had this same conversation when I was growing up. I’m not really sure how we defined talent and value, and how we came up with our favorite players back then - maybe it was more pure, in a sense, because it was less informed…the ignorance is bliss principle…but if I were to look at my favorite players then, I’m sure I liked them more because how their game looked, how it was publicized, and who they were then for anything tangibly worthwhile.

Although, me being heavy into the Jose Canseco Starting Lineup figure shows some insight - Canseco had a career OPS of .867 - which is good.

What I most enjoy writing about on this blog are things that I start the piece knowing very little about, and then, by the end of the article, I’ve investigated the situation deeply enough to form an educated, cohesive opinion. In other words, I like to use this space to learn more about the games I love.

And when that opinion happens to differ from one that’s dictated by the people who control public opinion on Cleveland sports, then it makes me even happier. What can I say, I’m a healthy skeptic.

A large part of my conversation with my dad centered around OPS, which I’ve loosely written about previously, in regards to why it’s a better indicator of a hitter’s worth than batting average alone.

Much of this can be found in Michael Lewis’s book Moneyball, which I recommend you reading, but to outline those thoughts more briefly, you can also look at this Wiki page.

In short, OPS - or on base percentage plus slugging percentage - is a better measure of a hitter’s value because it more closely indicates how that hitter produces runs. The reasoning lies in the fact that a team would score an infinite amount of runs if every batter got on base…but since this is impossible, slugging percentage is also important because extra base hits produce runs more quickly than singles, walks, or getting hit by a pitch (reaching base on an error could go either way, depending on how many bases the error costs the defense).

This philosophy, which the Indians subscribe to, puts an emphasis on home runs and walks and is critical of sacrifice bunts, strikeouts, and stolen bases attempts - in the long run, giving up outs is statistically proven to produce a fewer amount of runs. Stolen bases are great if you don’t get caught - but they’re only worthwhile if your team gets caught no more than 30% of the time.

One problem with this methodology is that a team can some times get trapped playing the wrong percentages. For instance, giving up an out to bunt a runner from first to second is normally a bad long term percentage play when trying to score as many runs as possible - but bunting a runner from first to second in the bottom of the 9th inning in a tie game is a different story because you don’t need four runs, you just need one.

Obviously, that’s an extreme example, but you get the idea.

The other issue with OPS is that on base percentage is, on average, lower than slugging percentage - so a high slugging percentage can inflate an OPS - when, really, getting on base as frequently as possible is a more valuable action than hitting a home run every once in a while, due to the infinite runs formula mentioned above.

So, by no means, is OPS a perfect stat, but it does help us understand - more deeply - how good of a hitter a player is. Notice that we totally ignore stats like RBI which place far too much emphasis on what players other than the one we’re trying to evaluate have done. You can’t get a RBI, after all, unless the player in front of you found his way into scoring position.

OPS then is one stat - the other is OPS+ which is the designation for adjusted OPS, a statistic that takes into consideration a player’s league and ballpark when calculating on base and slugging. This make sense - it’s easier to hit a home run in Coors Field than it is in Comerica Park, or really anywhere else.

Infamous stat geek, Bill James laid out OPS into seven categories, with above .9000 at the top and .5666 at the bottom (the entire chart is on the Wiki link). In 2008, the average MLB OPS was .749 - this varies some from year to year.

OPS+ is really a better gauge because it mitigates the advantage a guy like Todd Helton has playing in Coors Field, which inevitably has helped him become the player with the 10th best career OPS in the history of MLB (.9976 - and also on the Wiki link).

With OPS+ 100 is average, 125 is very good, and 150 is excellent. Barry Bonds had the highest single year OPS+ in 2002 with a 268. Incidentally, that was the year after he broke the single season HR record.

The most compelling reason to talk about all of this now is that it gives us a good place to start if the Indians make any trades this week. Of course, since most of those trades will involve pitchers, I’ll have to break down a whole different set of stats - but together we’ll get there.

I know that understanding all of this helps me grasp and enjoy the game more than I did a year ago - even if I am late to the party. As a kid, I don’t think I would’ve cared, but as an adult it’s exciting to reach a more complex level of comprehension - and fun to listen to how dumb the analysts on Baseball Tonight sound when they talk about a player being great because he turns corners on the base paths.

I’ll be in Anaheim tomorrow with Tim watching Carl Pavano pitch what could be his last game as an Indian.