Tonight, instead of micro-analyzing this one game, I want to take a look at the ripple effect the Cavs’ scheduling over the final two weeks of the season could have on the playoff race in both conferences.
With the #1 overall seed secure as of Sunday night, Coldstone went into the final six games having decided to scale back Bron’s minutes (at Bron’s request), irrelevant of opponent. He made a conscious decision going into Tuesday’s game that Bron would rest the 4th quarter and be inactive for Thursday.
Of course, this decision had a big impact on the outcome of those two games. Bron played 36 minutes against Toronto at home on Tuesday. The Cavs won. Tonight, Bron was in a suit instead of a uniform. The Cavs lost.
The global result? The Cavs have inadvertently created a four-game playoff between Toronto and Chicago for the 8th spot. Those two teams now have identical records, with Toronto holding the tie-breaker based on their record in the season series.
Now, had their last two opponents been reversed, the Cavs could have all but cemented Toronto as their 1st round opponent. In this imaginary scenario, the Cavs would’ve played Bron 36 minutes against Chicago on Tuesday, likely resulting in a win, then rested him against the Raptors on Thursday, likely resulting in a loss. The Raptors would thus be heading into this weekend with a 1 game lead over Chicago.
Instead, the two teams are deadlocked at 38-40 with very similar schedules the rest of the way.
Chicago plays at New Jersey Friday night and at Toronto Sunday, before ending the season on a back-to-back against Boston and at Charlotte on Tuesday & Wednesday.
Toronto plays at Atlanta Friday night, home against Chicago Sunday, at Detroit Monday, and against the Knicks at home on Wednesday.
Theoretically, Chicago should beat New Jersey Friday, but Boston may still play their starters Wednesday if they want to hang onto the 3-seed. (More on this later.) Charlotte has a 4-game cushion at the 7 spot, so in all likelihood they should be resting their starters on Wednesday, making that game a give-away to the Bulls. In short, the Bulls should be 2-1 not including whatever happens against Toronto.
The Raptors, on the other hand, will lose to Atlanta, but *should* be capable of beating Detroit and New York. This would make them 2-1 not including whatever happens against Chicago.
Sunday’s game between the Raptors and Bulls thus has the potential to be a one-game play-in, NCAA style, for the 8-seed and the right to face off against the Cavs. In this case, the Cavs’ scheduling has made them unwitting champions of sports democracy.
However, the ripple effect doesn’t stop there.
After losing to Denver tonight, the Lakers’ record sinks to 55-23. While this still gives them a 3.5 game lead for the first seed in the West, it also knots them with Orlando for the overall 2-seed.
Orlando’s remaining four games are against New York, at Cleveland, at Indiana, and against Philly. In short, the Cavs are the only legitimate team left on their schedule—but with the huge caveat that the starters are likely to rest again. Odds thus favor Orlando going 4-0 instead of 3-1 to end the season. This would boost their record to 59-23.
The Lakers’ remaining four games are at Minnesota, home against Portland, home against Sacramento, and “at” the Clippers. Like the Magic, that’s 3 cake-walks and one game against a legit team. Unlike the Cavs, though, the Blazers are still fighting tooth and nail for their playoff positioning. Combined with their consistent success against the Lakers (Portland has taken 9 of the last 10), there’s a sizable chance that the Lakers go 3-1 instead of 4-0 to end the season. This would solidify their season record at 58-24, or one game worse than Orlando’s likely season record.
In other words, it’s entirely possible that the Lakers will end up as the overall 3-seed rather than the overall 2-seed. Meaning, of course, that barring a near-miracle, the Eastern Conference champion will hold home court advantage in the Finals this year—partially thanks to the Cavs, even if they’re not the Eastern Conference’s representative in the Finals.
Finally, the Cavs’ regular season finale will be at Atlanta. The Cavs are all but guaranteed to rest their starters in this one. Combined with Atlanta’s sterling home record (32-7), it’s safe to chalk this one up for the Hawks. That leaves Atlanta’s other three games as: home against Toronto, at Washington, and at Milwaukee. They should go at least 3-1, and possibly 4-0, with the Bucks game as the question mark.
By contrast, Boston plays home against Washington, at Milwaukee, at Chicago, and home against Milwaukee. The Celts are almost guaranteed to lose a minimum of one of these games, making them at best 3-1 and possibly 2-2. Since the Celtics own the first tie-breaker against Atlanta by virtue of being division champs (whereas Atlanta will finish 2nd in the Southeast), the only danger for Boston is finishing with a worse overall record.
Here again, the Cavs potentially play the spoiler by resting against the Hawks. If the Cavs were to go full-mode against Atlanta, it’s likely that they would force Atlanta’s record in the final four games to 3-1 at best, and possibly 2-2 if the Hawks also lose to the Bucks. That scenario would lock Atlanta into the same likely record as the Celtics, which would in turn drop the Hawks to 4th in the East because of the tie-break situation.
Admittedly, a big part of this is conjecture. It’s hard to predict what each of the teams I mentioned above are going to actually do in this final stretch of the season. But if things play out the way their records suggest they should, the Cavs will be factors in the seeding of both conferences without winning another game.
The even slightly bigger point here is a good reminder before the playoffs start: randomness / luck matters. It also manifests itself in all kinds of different forms, all of which are completely out of the team’s control, and even moreso, the fans’ control.
In other words, get your seat belts ready. The post-season is almost here, and it’s going to be a wild ride.
For the tenth time in the past 11 games (including the playoffs), the Cavs beat Atlanta. For the third time this season, the Cavs beat Atlanta despite the Hawks getting a lead during the fourth quarter. For the first time this season, the Cavs beat Atlanta despite:
Not only missing both Shaq & Varejao, but also…
Still massacring Atlanta on the boards (+14 DRB, +5 ORB, +19 TRB)
Shooting a dismal 41.3% FG
Laboring to a weak 14 team assists
Shooting only 31.6% 3P
Losing the turnover battle (-3)
During the final minutes of the broadcast, Hubie Brown and Jon Barry discussed the eerie similarity between this contest and the teams’ previous two match-ups this year. Hubie’s take was that the Hawks have to feel good about themselves if they match up with the Cavs in the playoffs, because those first 3.5 quarters establish that they have the talent and the ability to compete. All they have to do is “clean up the 4th quarter” to start getting some Ws.
I don’t say this often, but I completely disagree with Hubie’s perspective on this issue.
Saying that the only thing a team has to do is clean up the fourth quarter is, to me, a little like saying that the only thing you have to do to sleep with the hottest girl in the bar is get her back to your bedroom. Is it true? Yes. But it’s also arguably the most difficult part of the entire equation.
Thanks to NBA TV, this is a brief, very basic snapshot of the series between these two teams since the 2008-9 season:
WINS: Cavs 10 | Atlanta 1
PPG: Cavs 97.8 | Atlanta 87.5
FG%: Cavs 47.0% | Atlanta 42.2%
REB: Cavs 42.2 | Atlanta 35.2
The Cavs swept the Hawks out of the playoffs last year. Tonight, they came out victorious despite all of the injuries and tepid play I mentioned at the beginning of the post, and despite that the Hawks were completely healthy.
The reality is that it’s entirely possible to damage a team’s psyche. At a certain point, the Hawks simply start to believe that they can’t outplay the Cavs when it matters—regardless of whether the “when” is the last 6 minutes of a regular season game or an entire playoff series. The other example that comes to mind is Game 5 of the 2007 ECF against Detroit, AKA LeBron’s 48 Special. That performance broke the Pistons mentally. Aftewards, I always believed that that particular Detroit team would never beat the Cavs in a game of consequence ever again. Game 6 backed me up, and the sweep of the Pistons in last year’s opening round of the playoffs still involved a hangover for guys like ‘Sheed, Prince, McDyess, Rip, and Maxiell.
Are the 2009-10 Hawks at that point? If not, I would argue that they’re damn close. One way to know for sure, though, will be if the Cavs go into Philips Arena and beat the Hawks on the last day of the season when LeBron and the other starters either DNP or get 1 quarter (or less) of PT. I don’t think that will happen, but even if it doesn’t, it also won’t reverse the psychological damage done by now.
So congrats to the Cavs, who didn’t just win a basketball game (and the #1 seed in the East), but also secured a distinct mental advantage over an opponent they may still see in the 2nd round of the playoffs.
Tonight’s home victory against the Bucks was a classic glass half-full / glass half-empty situation (c) Austin Carr.
If you want to look at it positively, you can focus on the fact that the Cavs came out on top of the team with the best record in the league since the All-Star break. They managed to do it despite missing both Shaq and Andy, both of whom were missed even more than usual because of Andrew Bogut’s presence at the opposing 5. The Cavs also managed to do exactly what they failed to do in San Antonio last Friday: out-execute a tough, defense-minded playoff team in the final minutes. Even Mo Williams was a bright spot tonight. He shot 50% FG (6 of 12), 40% 3P (2 of 5), chipped in 6 AST, 3 STL, and iced the game with 4 clutch free throws (he was 7 of 8 FT overall).
If you wanted to look at it negatively, there were certainly some areas of concern. The most blatant reason the game came down to the final few possessions was the Cavs’ horrendous free throw shooting. As a team, they went 29 of 45, or a tepid 64.4%. They were also sub-par from distance, going 25% 3P (4 of 16). Despite ending up with 26 team assists—which would generally suggest fluid ball movement—the offense also went through extended periods of stagnation, especially in the second half. One on one play seemed to dominate to an uncharacteristic extent. And despite holding the Bucks to an acceptable 45.6% FG, there were some glaring defensive lapses. Dribble penetration set the Bucks up for success early, and a few non-existent rotations in the 4th quarter must’ve nearly sent Coldstone into a coma.
Probably the greatest snapshot of this game was the 4th quarter sequence where the Cavs ran a play to get Mo a 3 pointer that he drilled for the lead…followed mere seconds later by a complete defensive breakdown that gave Ersan Ilyasova the most open 3 pointer of the night.
All that said, I’m going to slant my own personal perception of the game into the positive because A) the Cavs still ultimately won, and B) Jamario Moon got something resembling significant playing time (10:21). While he wasn’t great in any basic statistical category—1 PT, 1 REB, 1 AST, and nothing else—he was a factor on defense. He and JJ were the duo that shut down John Salmons’s path to the baseline and forced him to fumble the ball out of bounds off his own knee with 13.3 seconds remaining. Bonus points to him for getting both of his tattoos completely redone, too.
Cavs get the Hawks (fresh off mauling the Lakers at Phillips Arena tonight) on Friday. Should be another pseudo-playoff preview. We’ll see if the Cavs can maintain their success against a team that will ultimately end up getting more than 9 FTAs for the game.
Mike, my dad, and I got into an email exchange earlier this week about potential first-round playoff opponents for the Cavs. The conversation eventually expanded to include our individual points of concern about the team heading into the post-season. Here’s what I wrote at one point in that exchange:
“I think what makes me the most nervous is that it seems like Coldstone is going to be forced to feel a lot of things out on the fly. As we all know, that’s not his strong suit as a coach. Rotations aren’t going to be set. Players are going to have to be adaptable to who else is on the floor and figure out their role accordingly. And the guy who’s going to be coming back the latest is the one who’s presence changes the way everyone else plays most dramatically (obviously, other than Bron) . It’s not an ideal situation.”
I bring this up because Andy Varejao left tonight’s game against the Spurs early in the second quarter due to a tweaked hamstring. Though the injury doesn’t sound like anything serious (“not a pop or a tear,” according to Windhorst), the team kept Andy out for the entire second half.
The result: the Cavs’ rotation almost immediately went to hell. Though they kept the game close, the team spent a lot of the second half looking a little confused about who was on the floor and what their roles were supposed to be. The cracks didn’t become fatal until the 4th, when Manu Ginobili turned into Pete Maravich and the Cavs made some uncharacteristic mistakes down the stretch.
It was a winnable game even without Andy. But I can’t get too upset when both the Lakers and Jazz got absolutely embarrassed on the same night.
Cavs are home against the Kings on Sunday. Adjust your schedules accordingly.
I’m not going to try to reinvent the wheel with this post. The reality is that the Cavs continue to roll, and it’s increasingly difficult to find defining elements in any of their beat-downs of sub-.500 teams.
However, one number I’ll point to is this: +3.
No, I’m not trying to ignite a debate about +/-…raw, adjusted, regularized-adjusted, or otherwise. Tonight, +3 was the differential between the Cavs’ lead at the end of the 3rd quarter (22 points) versus the end of the game (25 points).
As those of us who watched the Cavs religiously last year know, the 2008-9 season involved a lot of blow-out wins. But many of those blow-out wins diminished dramatically in scale during the final quarter with LeBron and the other starters off the floor. 30+ point leads at the beginning of the 4th became 13 point victories fairly regularly. There were even a few games where Bron had to be pulled off the bench with less than 5 minutes left in the game to try to make sure the team didn’t, in the parlance of Matt Barnes, shit on the money and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. (If I remember correctly, one of these was against the Pistons at about this same time in the season).
By no means have the Cavs completely done away with this phenomenon this season. But as a fan, my comfort level with big leads is much greater this year than last. It’s arguably one of the areas in which the team’s new depth becomes most apparent. Most of the 4th quarter today was played by a line-up of Andy, Powe, Moon, Delonte, and Boobie—all of whom now qualify as reserves. From a productivity standpoint, it should be no surprise that those players are able to not only maintain a lead, but increase it. (Andy, Powe, and Delonte’s involvement in the early 2nd quarter is one of the reasons the Cavs are often able to handily outplay the opponents’ reserves in that stretch of the game, too.)
Compare that line-up to last season, when Coldstone would often throw out a squad comprised of JJ, Darnell, Boobie, Delonte, and Wally. My heart rate spiked just looking at that combination of names.
Beyond just kudos to Danny Ferry, Coldstone himself deserves some credit for the improvements. While we all have issues with his rotations some times, he’s certainly learned how to make garbage time less dramatic. Granted, that sounds like the world’s most back-handed compliment, but I mean it with no disrespect. Knowing your personnel and how to combine them in a way that won’t make the wheels completely fall off is a legitimate improvement.
Cavs are off until Wednesday, at which point they take on the Hornets in NOLA. It’s the first potentially challenging game on the schedule in what seems like a month. We’ll see how they respond, especially since—barring some freak occurrence—they’ll also be dealing with the re-integration of Z into the roster. (Welcome back, big guy.)
