Disclaimer: I’m going to be critical of the Cavs on one point, and then I’m going to defend them. Here are a few stats that are going to feed into the criticism:
Game 4: 4-21 3P (19%) , -6 OREB, -14 TRB, -10 pts in paint
Game 3: 5-12 3P (44%), -3 OREB, +15 TRB, +18 pts in paint
Game 2: 4-21 3P (19%), -1 OREB, -10 TRB, +2 pts in paint
Game 1: 4-12 3P (33%), -1 OREB, even TRB, +2 pts in paint
Over the regular season, the Cavs averaged 19.3 three-point attempts per game. For the series, they’re averaging 16.5 three-point attempts per game, or about 3 fewer per game. More importantly, their percentage for the series is a dismal 25.8%.(For reference, the league average over the regular season was about 35%. The Cavs’ average was 38%.) So against Boston, the Cavs are shooting significantly fewer threes and having a significantly lower success rate on those fewer attempts.
Are the Celtics doing something to take away the Cavs’ long-distance shooting? Not as far as I can tell. The team as a whole—with the exception of Anthony Parker, a clause I can’t believe I just wrote—has been getting many of the same open looks they’ve been getting all season. They’re just not connecting.
The reality is that one of the things that has made the Cavs so difficult to beat all season is their ability to stretch the floor by shooting and making a high volume of 3s. If that aspect of their game can’t be depended on in the playoffs (and given the number of attempts it doesn’t even look like they’re trying to depend on it), there’s a ripple effect through the entire offense. I would suggest it’s not a coincidence that the only game in the series where the Cavs shot well from behind the arc was the same game where they dominated points in the paint. Why? The fewer long shots the Cavs take (and make), the more the Celtics can sag back into the paint to make things difficult for drivers, posters, and Cavs rebounders.
You’re going to read a lot about the Cavs’ effort level in this game. Their performance on the glass will be one of the main pieces of evidence writers use to make that point. As noted above, the Cavs have won the rebounding battle only once in the four games. But instead of just saying the Cavs should try harder, I’m going to at least suggest that a part of their problem is that the Celtics don’t have to fear the stretched floor the way the Cavs need them to. This makes defensive rebounding easier for the Celtics for the reasons I mentioned above. It also ends up resulting in forced passes to the interior, turnovers (LeBron had 7 today, by the way), and lower offensive production in the paint.
So when you get down to it, my overall point is this: effort is important. But some of the raw stats of the game that people construe as “lack of effort” might not be there if the Cavs would hit something in the neighborhood of the same number of threes they hit in the regular season.
This leads me into the part where I defend the team.
Overall, the Cavs did not play as poorly as other people would have you believe. They held the Celtics to 44.7% FG and 7.1% 3P (1-14). They drew four more fouls on the Celtics, shot only one fewer FTA, and had a higher FT% (74.4% CLE vs 70% BOS). They matched the Celtics’ team assist total, and held the Celts under 100 points.
The problem was Rondo was an absolute demon (28 points, 13 assists, 18 rebounds, 2 steals, only 4 TOs, and only 1 minute of rest). He dominated every aspect of the game, single-handedly outrebounded the Cavs in the 4th quarter, and in a straight-up player comparison made LeBron an also-ran (22 points on 7-18 FG, 9 Reb, 8 ast, 2 stl, 1 block, but 7 TOs and 0-5 3P). It should be taken with a grain of salt because of the usual media exaggeration, but before the game was even over, the broadcast team was discussing that Rondo’s game could be one of the greatest playoff performances in Celtic history.
If there’s one thing that Cavs fans should understand by now, it’s that games can be won by great individual performances. Even when the opposing team plays well. That’s what the playoffs are all about some times. In this case, the Cavs’ superstar had a worse game than the opponents’, who had a performance for the ages.
Overall, the Cavs did some things right. But the Celtics—really, Rondo—did more things right, so they won the game. It’s not sorcery, and it’s not completely our guys’ fault. It’s basketball, and some times, it’s life. So let’s all quit acting like the entire thing is just a result of the deficiencies on our own side, and that if the team would’ve just tried harder, they’d be going back to Cleveland 3-1.
Today, we all witnessed something special: we watched a coach other than Don Nelson actively attempt to lose a game.
After choosing to deactivate LeBron and Anthony Parker, Coldstone ended the suspense of an until-then competitive contest between the Cavs’ reserves and the Magic by holding both Mo and Jamison out for the entire fourth quarter.
To that point, both guys had been playing very well. Mo had a 19 point, 9 assist, 50% 3P performance going through 28 minutes. Jamison had 19 points and 6 rebounds in 29 minutes, even shooting 75% FT, which, as we all know, is unheard of since the trade.
Orlando seemed to have no good answer for either of them. Mo clearly believed that he could drive on Jameer Nelson the entire day, and nothing Stan Van Gundy tried against Jamison seemed to have much of an effect—and there was definitely some experimentation involved.
However, with the game very much still up for grabs, Coldstone started the fourth with both men on the bench. The deep reserves took the lead a few minutes into the quarter, but were unable to hold it. Coldstone never brought Mo or Jamison back into the game to try to steal the victory, either. Instead, the Magic were able to barely outplay the reserves and walk away with a shaky 6 point win.
I have incredibly mixed feelings about how this went down.
Like Brian Windhorst, it doesn’t feel right to me to actively hold back almost everything in order to win. Non-competition doesn’t mesh with my personality. It’s not as if the choice was about playing LeBron versus not playing LeBron. It was about putting in guys who, to that point, had played an entirely reasonable number of minutes, were playing well, and could potentially have helped tip the scales in a season series against a hated rival.
However, I also recognize that this is a classic “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation for Coldstone. If he puts in Mo and Jamison, and one of them gets hurt, he gets killed for putting starters out in the final minutes of a meaningless game. (Let’s not forget that this almost happened to Jamison against the Bulls Thursday.) If he keeps them out and the Cavs lose (as they did), he gets grilled for intentionally holding back.
The proponents of this second school would also argue, I think, that the Cavs missed a chance to deal a psychological blow to the Magic. Had they taken this game with Bron, Shaq, and even AP sitting, then maybe the Magic really would’ve felt like they’re in trouble when the Cavs come back at them at full force in the Conference Finals (assuming that match-up ultimately happens).
I don’t want to completely throw out that school of thought, especially since I just wrote a post based on a similar idea last week. But I think there’s a major difference that we have to recognize.
Think about it this way: the Magic, playing in a game that had meaning (in that it could allow them to potentially overtake the Lakers for the overall #2 seed), playing their starters full minutes, getting a monster performance from Da-wight (22 points, 13 reb, 6 blk), had to fight like hell to barely overcome a Cavs team with no LeBron (the best player in the league), no Shaq (the primary player brought in to contain Da-wight Howard), and when it came down to it, no Antawn Jamison (the player they haven’t been able to figure out how to defend), and no Mo Williams (the player who was killing them for 3 quarters despite his epic struggles against them last season). The Magic still only put up 98 points and got practically nothing (6 points on 3-10 FG) from Vince Carter, the guy they brought in to replace Hedo Turkoglu, whom the Cavs were never able to figure out.
This is one where the players interviewed post-game say things like, “We struggled out there today, but all that matters was that we got a win.” That’s the right thing to say, sure. But there’s no way that after it’s said, the player walks back into the locker room feeling good about the potential of seeing the opposing team again at full-strength on a big stage. In that sense, if there was psychological damage to be done in this game, my guess is that it happened regardless of the actual outcome.
In fact, I would actually go one step further. Say Coldstone puts Jamison and Mo back in the game in the second half of the 4th. They run their best offense. They give maximum effort. They show they care about winning…but they lose anyway. Sure, LeBron and Shaq are still on the bench. But that’s a win that the Magic can potentially use to their advantage down the road. They can say, “OK, they weren’t at full force, but we still took their best shot and were able to withstand it.”
In this way, the Celtics game on Easter is a good example. Sure, the Cavs were without Shaq and Andy, but they went as hard as they could to roar back from a 20+ point deficit and nearly take the game. But they fell short. Did that register with Boston as a sobering moment? No, it registered as a well-deserved opportunity to talk shit, pound their chests, to convince themselves that they could beat the Cavs. And I guarantee that they’ll carry that attitude into their next match-up with the Cavs in the post-season, if it happens.
Instead, the Magic have to go back to Orlando thinking, “Crap, they weren’t at full force to begin with, they played the end of their bench in the 4th, basically ran around like a JV team, didn’t even foul to try to extend the game…and we won by two possessions. This is not good.”
To use a basketball analogy, I would equate Coldstone’s strategy to “pulling the chair” on a post player trying to back down a defender. The offensive player readies himself to go up against maximum resistance, finds none, and is immediately thrown off his game. It’s like sucking the oxygen out of a room where there’s a fire.
So while it goes against my own nature to not compete as hard as possible, I ultimately think Coldstone made the right decision. I recognize that’s a controversial opinion, but as usual, we’re not here to cooperate.
Tonight, instead of micro-analyzing this one game, I want to take a look at the ripple effect the Cavs’ scheduling over the final two weeks of the season could have on the playoff race in both conferences.
With the #1 overall seed secure as of Sunday night, Coldstone went into the final six games having decided to scale back Bron’s minutes (at Bron’s request), irrelevant of opponent. He made a conscious decision going into Tuesday’s game that Bron would rest the 4th quarter and be inactive for Thursday.
Of course, this decision had a big impact on the outcome of those two games. Bron played 36 minutes against Toronto at home on Tuesday. The Cavs won. Tonight, Bron was in a suit instead of a uniform. The Cavs lost.
The global result? The Cavs have inadvertently created a four-game playoff between Toronto and Chicago for the 8th spot. Those two teams now have identical records, with Toronto holding the tie-breaker based on their record in the season series.
Now, had their last two opponents been reversed, the Cavs could have all but cemented Toronto as their 1st round opponent. In this imaginary scenario, the Cavs would’ve played Bron 36 minutes against Chicago on Tuesday, likely resulting in a win, then rested him against the Raptors on Thursday, likely resulting in a loss. The Raptors would thus be heading into this weekend with a 1 game lead over Chicago.
Instead, the two teams are deadlocked at 38-40 with very similar schedules the rest of the way.
Chicago plays at New Jersey Friday night and at Toronto Sunday, before ending the season on a back-to-back against Boston and at Charlotte on Tuesday & Wednesday.
Toronto plays at Atlanta Friday night, home against Chicago Sunday, at Detroit Monday, and against the Knicks at home on Wednesday.
Theoretically, Chicago should beat New Jersey Friday, but Boston may still play their starters Wednesday if they want to hang onto the 3-seed. (More on this later.) Charlotte has a 4-game cushion at the 7 spot, so in all likelihood they should be resting their starters on Wednesday, making that game a give-away to the Bulls. In short, the Bulls should be 2-1 not including whatever happens against Toronto.
The Raptors, on the other hand, will lose to Atlanta, but *should* be capable of beating Detroit and New York. This would make them 2-1 not including whatever happens against Chicago.
Sunday’s game between the Raptors and Bulls thus has the potential to be a one-game play-in, NCAA style, for the 8-seed and the right to face off against the Cavs. In this case, the Cavs’ scheduling has made them unwitting champions of sports democracy.
However, the ripple effect doesn’t stop there.
After losing to Denver tonight, the Lakers’ record sinks to 55-23. While this still gives them a 3.5 game lead for the first seed in the West, it also knots them with Orlando for the overall 2-seed.
Orlando’s remaining four games are against New York, at Cleveland, at Indiana, and against Philly. In short, the Cavs are the only legitimate team left on their schedule—but with the huge caveat that the starters are likely to rest again. Odds thus favor Orlando going 4-0 instead of 3-1 to end the season. This would boost their record to 59-23.
The Lakers’ remaining four games are at Minnesota, home against Portland, home against Sacramento, and “at” the Clippers. Like the Magic, that’s 3 cake-walks and one game against a legit team. Unlike the Cavs, though, the Blazers are still fighting tooth and nail for their playoff positioning. Combined with their consistent success against the Lakers (Portland has taken 9 of the last 10), there’s a sizable chance that the Lakers go 3-1 instead of 4-0 to end the season. This would solidify their season record at 58-24, or one game worse than Orlando’s likely season record.
In other words, it’s entirely possible that the Lakers will end up as the overall 3-seed rather than the overall 2-seed. Meaning, of course, that barring a near-miracle, the Eastern Conference champion will hold home court advantage in the Finals this year—partially thanks to the Cavs, even if they’re not the Eastern Conference’s representative in the Finals.
Finally, the Cavs’ regular season finale will be at Atlanta. The Cavs are all but guaranteed to rest their starters in this one. Combined with Atlanta’s sterling home record (32-7), it’s safe to chalk this one up for the Hawks. That leaves Atlanta’s other three games as: home against Toronto, at Washington, and at Milwaukee. They should go at least 3-1, and possibly 4-0, with the Bucks game as the question mark.
By contrast, Boston plays home against Washington, at Milwaukee, at Chicago, and home against Milwaukee. The Celts are almost guaranteed to lose a minimum of one of these games, making them at best 3-1 and possibly 2-2. Since the Celtics own the first tie-breaker against Atlanta by virtue of being division champs (whereas Atlanta will finish 2nd in the Southeast), the only danger for Boston is finishing with a worse overall record.
Here again, the Cavs potentially play the spoiler by resting against the Hawks. If the Cavs were to go full-mode against Atlanta, it’s likely that they would force Atlanta’s record in the final four games to 3-1 at best, and possibly 2-2 if the Hawks also lose to the Bucks. That scenario would lock Atlanta into the same likely record as the Celtics, which would in turn drop the Hawks to 4th in the East because of the tie-break situation.
Admittedly, a big part of this is conjecture. It’s hard to predict what each of the teams I mentioned above are going to actually do in this final stretch of the season. But if things play out the way their records suggest they should, the Cavs will be factors in the seeding of both conferences without winning another game.
The even slightly bigger point here is a good reminder before the playoffs start: randomness / luck matters. It also manifests itself in all kinds of different forms, all of which are completely out of the team’s control, and even moreso, the fans’ control.
In other words, get your seat belts ready. The post-season is almost here, and it’s going to be a wild ride.
For the tenth time in the past 11 games (including the playoffs), the Cavs beat Atlanta. For the third time this season, the Cavs beat Atlanta despite the Hawks getting a lead during the fourth quarter. For the first time this season, the Cavs beat Atlanta despite:
Not only missing both Shaq & Varejao, but also…
Still massacring Atlanta on the boards (+14 DRB, +5 ORB, +19 TRB)
Shooting a dismal 41.3% FG
Laboring to a weak 14 team assists
Shooting only 31.6% 3P
Losing the turnover battle (-3)
During the final minutes of the broadcast, Hubie Brown and Jon Barry discussed the eerie similarity between this contest and the teams’ previous two match-ups this year. Hubie’s take was that the Hawks have to feel good about themselves if they match up with the Cavs in the playoffs, because those first 3.5 quarters establish that they have the talent and the ability to compete. All they have to do is “clean up the 4th quarter” to start getting some Ws.
I don’t say this often, but I completely disagree with Hubie’s perspective on this issue.
Saying that the only thing a team has to do is clean up the fourth quarter is, to me, a little like saying that the only thing you have to do to sleep with the hottest girl in the bar is get her back to your bedroom. Is it true? Yes. But it’s also arguably the most difficult part of the entire equation.
Thanks to NBA TV, this is a brief, very basic snapshot of the series between these two teams since the 2008-9 season:
WINS: Cavs 10 | Atlanta 1
PPG: Cavs 97.8 | Atlanta 87.5
FG%: Cavs 47.0% | Atlanta 42.2%
REB: Cavs 42.2 | Atlanta 35.2
The Cavs swept the Hawks out of the playoffs last year. Tonight, they came out victorious despite all of the injuries and tepid play I mentioned at the beginning of the post, and despite that the Hawks were completely healthy.
The reality is that it’s entirely possible to damage a team’s psyche. At a certain point, the Hawks simply start to believe that they can’t outplay the Cavs when it matters—regardless of whether the “when” is the last 6 minutes of a regular season game or an entire playoff series. The other example that comes to mind is Game 5 of the 2007 ECF against Detroit, AKA LeBron’s 48 Special. That performance broke the Pistons mentally. Aftewards, I always believed that that particular Detroit team would never beat the Cavs in a game of consequence ever again. Game 6 backed me up, and the sweep of the Pistons in last year’s opening round of the playoffs still involved a hangover for guys like ‘Sheed, Prince, McDyess, Rip, and Maxiell.
Are the 2009-10 Hawks at that point? If not, I would argue that they’re damn close. One way to know for sure, though, will be if the Cavs go into Philips Arena and beat the Hawks on the last day of the season when LeBron and the other starters either DNP or get 1 quarter (or less) of PT. I don’t think that will happen, but even if it doesn’t, it also won’t reverse the psychological damage done by now.
So congrats to the Cavs, who didn’t just win a basketball game (and the #1 seed in the East), but also secured a distinct mental advantage over an opponent they may still see in the 2nd round of the playoffs.
Tonight’s home victory against the Bucks was a classic glass half-full / glass half-empty situation (c) Austin Carr.
If you want to look at it positively, you can focus on the fact that the Cavs came out on top of the team with the best record in the league since the All-Star break. They managed to do it despite missing both Shaq and Andy, both of whom were missed even more than usual because of Andrew Bogut’s presence at the opposing 5. The Cavs also managed to do exactly what they failed to do in San Antonio last Friday: out-execute a tough, defense-minded playoff team in the final minutes. Even Mo Williams was a bright spot tonight. He shot 50% FG (6 of 12), 40% 3P (2 of 5), chipped in 6 AST, 3 STL, and iced the game with 4 clutch free throws (he was 7 of 8 FT overall).
If you wanted to look at it negatively, there were certainly some areas of concern. The most blatant reason the game came down to the final few possessions was the Cavs’ horrendous free throw shooting. As a team, they went 29 of 45, or a tepid 64.4%. They were also sub-par from distance, going 25% 3P (4 of 16). Despite ending up with 26 team assists—which would generally suggest fluid ball movement—the offense also went through extended periods of stagnation, especially in the second half. One on one play seemed to dominate to an uncharacteristic extent. And despite holding the Bucks to an acceptable 45.6% FG, there were some glaring defensive lapses. Dribble penetration set the Bucks up for success early, and a few non-existent rotations in the 4th quarter must’ve nearly sent Coldstone into a coma.
Probably the greatest snapshot of this game was the 4th quarter sequence where the Cavs ran a play to get Mo a 3 pointer that he drilled for the lead…followed mere seconds later by a complete defensive breakdown that gave Ersan Ilyasova the most open 3 pointer of the night.
All that said, I’m going to slant my own personal perception of the game into the positive because A) the Cavs still ultimately won, and B) Jamario Moon got something resembling significant playing time (10:21). While he wasn’t great in any basic statistical category—1 PT, 1 REB, 1 AST, and nothing else—he was a factor on defense. He and JJ were the duo that shut down John Salmons’s path to the baseline and forced him to fumble the ball out of bounds off his own knee with 13.3 seconds remaining. Bonus points to him for getting both of his tattoos completely redone, too.
Cavs get the Hawks (fresh off mauling the Lakers at Phillips Arena tonight) on Friday. Should be another pseudo-playoff preview. We’ll see if the Cavs can maintain their success against a team that will ultimately end up getting more than 9 FTAs for the game.
