Jose Mesa Is Dead

February 2, 2011

I watched last Thursday’s “Inside the NBA” over the weekend. During the course of the broadcast, I was reminded of something that I’m sure we noted at the beginning of this season (though I’m not going to spend the time trying to dig back into our archives and prove it).

Essentially, TNT’s studio team was lauding Boston’s play and discussing what a tough out they’ll be in the playoffs this spring. One of the essential components of their argument: just think of what they’ll be able to do when they have a healthy Shaquille O’Neal back on the court.

Whomever made this point was greeted with a loud round of agreement. Shaq was indeed going to be a handful in the post-season.

Compare this to the reaction of NBA analysts last year when The Big Aristotle was in a Cavs uniform. All we heard about during that time was how old Shaq had gotten, how he’d lost several steps, how he didn’t have any lift, couldn’t be depended on to deliver in a major way during the playoffs, etc.

However, with his 38th birthday looming in 34 days, Shaq has somehow been thrown into some kind of analyst rejuvenation machine. Somehow, by putting on a different uniform, he has once again become a force to be reckoned with.

I’ll admit that I haven’t been paying as much attention to the league as a whole this season as I have in previous years. My sense from what I had seen up to today was that Shaq was largely doing the same things in the same quantities with Boston as what he did for the Cavs last year. But in the interest of fairness, I decided to check the numbers tonight to be sure.

Here’s what I found:

2009-10 Shaq Vs. 2010-11 Shaq

Games Played: 53 Vs 35

Minutes Per Game: 23.4 Vs 20.9

FGA per 36 min: 13.4 Vs 9.6

FG%: 56.6 Vs 66.7

FTA per 36 min: 6.6 Vs 6.4

FT%: 49.6 Vs 55.8

Offensive Rebound %: 9.4 Vs 8.8

Defensive Rebound %: 24.0 Vs 20.2

Total Rebound %: 17.0 Vs 14.8

Assist %: 11.3 Vs 5.8

Turnover %: 15.7 Vs 17.1

Offensive Rating (Points scored per 100 possessions): 104 Vs 113

Defensive Rating (Points allowed per 100 possessions): 102 Vs 98

Fouls: 4.9 Vs 5.8

In summary, Boston Shaq shoots a much higher percentage from the floor and a slightly less terrible percentage from the stripe; is no better at getting to the line; rebounds worse (particularly defensively); assists about half as much; turns the ball over more frequently; and fouls more often than Cleveland Shaq, with a negligible difference in minutes per game (-2.5 this season).

So while his offensive rating has improved noticeably, and his defensive rating somewhat, the category by category breakdown suggests that this is not a dramatically different player than he was a year ago. Even the current upticks in his offensive and defensive ratings are likely to settle before the end of the season. Case in point: in his last 4 games, Shaq has totaled 10 points…combined.

This isn’t a column meant to bag on Shaq, who I still root for on an individual level. The point is that, once again, the same phenomenon can look a whole lot different to the sports media depending on whether it’s happening in the TD Banknorth Garden instead of The Q. Some things never change.

-T

1:13am | URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/3065039035/return-of-the-double-standard
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May 9, 2010

Game 3 Bazooka Point

Disclaimer: I’m going to be critical of the Cavs on one point, and then I’m going to defend them. Here are a few stats that are going to feed into the criticism:

Game 4: 4-21 3P (19%) , -6 OREB, -14 TRB, -10 pts in paint

Game 3: 5-12 3P (44%), -3 OREB, +15 TRB, +18 pts in paint

Game 2: 4-21 3P (19%), -1 OREB, -10 TRB, +2 pts in paint

Game 1: 4-12 3P (33%), -1 OREB, even TRB, +2 pts in paint

SERIES: 17-66 3P (25.8%), -11 OREB, -9 TRB, +12 pts in paint

Over the regular season, the Cavs averaged 19.3 three-point attempts per game. For the series, they’re averaging 16.5 three-point attempts per game, or about 3 fewer per game. More importantly, their percentage for the series is a dismal 25.8%.(For reference, the league average over the regular season was about 35%. The Cavs’ average was 38%.) So against Boston, the Cavs are shooting significantly fewer threes and having a significantly lower success rate on those fewer attempts.

Are the Celtics doing something to take away the Cavs’ long-distance shooting? Not as far as I can tell. The team as a whole—with the exception of Anthony Parker, a clause I can’t believe I just wrote—has been getting many of the same open looks they’ve been getting all season. They’re just not connecting.

The reality is that one of the things that has made the Cavs so difficult to beat all season is their ability to stretch the floor by shooting and making a high volume of 3s. If that aspect of their game can’t be depended on in the playoffs (and given the number of attempts it doesn’t even look like they’re trying to depend on it), there’s a ripple effect through the entire offense. I would suggest it’s not a coincidence that the only game in the series where the Cavs shot well from behind the arc was the same game where they dominated points in the paint. Why? The fewer long shots the Cavs take (and make), the more the Celtics can sag back into the paint to make things difficult for drivers, posters, and Cavs rebounders.

You’re going to read a lot about the Cavs’ effort level in this game. Their performance on the glass will be one of the main pieces of evidence writers use to make that point. As noted above, the Cavs have won the rebounding battle only once in the four games. But instead of just saying the Cavs should try harder, I’m going to at least suggest that a part of their problem is that the Celtics don’t have to fear the stretched floor the way the Cavs need them to. This makes defensive rebounding easier for the Celtics for the reasons I mentioned above. It also ends up resulting in forced passes to the interior, turnovers (LeBron had 7 today, by the way), and lower offensive production in the paint.

So when you get down to it, my overall point is this: effort is important. But some of the raw stats of the game that people construe as “lack of effort” might not be there if the Cavs would hit something in the neighborhood of the same number of threes they hit in the regular season.

This leads me into the part where I defend the team.

Overall, the Cavs did not play as poorly as other people would have you believe. They held the Celtics to 44.7% FG and 7.1% 3P (1-14). They drew four more fouls on the Celtics, shot only one fewer FTA, and had a higher FT% (74.4% CLE vs 70% BOS). They matched the Celtics’ team assist total, and held the Celts under 100 points.

The problem was Rondo was an absolute demon (28 points, 13 assists, 18 rebounds, 2 steals, only 4 TOs, and only 1 minute of rest). He dominated every aspect of the game, single-handedly outrebounded the Cavs in the 4th quarter, and in a straight-up player comparison made LeBron an also-ran (22 points on 7-18 FG, 9 Reb, 8 ast, 2 stl, 1 block, but 7 TOs and 0-5 3P). It should be taken with a grain of salt because of the usual media exaggeration, but before the game was even over, the broadcast team was discussing that Rondo’s game could be one of the greatest playoff performances in Celtic history.

If there’s one thing that Cavs fans should understand by now, it’s that games can be won by great individual performances. Even when the opposing team plays well. That’s what the playoffs are all about some times. In this case, the Cavs’ superstar had a worse game than the opponents’, who had a performance for the ages.

Overall, the Cavs did some things right. But the Celtics—really, Rondo—did more things right, so they won the game. It’s not sorcery, and it’s not completely our guys’ fault. It’s basketball, and some times, it’s life. So let’s all quit acting like the entire thing is just a result of the deficiencies on our own side, and that if the team would’ve just tried harder, they’d be going back to Cleveland 3-1.

-T

7:44pm | URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/585656466/game-3-bazooka-point
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FILED UNDER: NBAP10 Bazooka Point Celtics Cavs Rondo LeBron Boston Cleveland

December 19, 2009

Cavs / Bucks Bazooka Point: Widen the Lens

One thing that drives me crazy about most sports analysts is their ignorance or unwillingness to discuss context. I’m eyeing a more in-depth post about this early next week, but for now, let’s take a step back from micro-analyzing this one Cavs’ game to see how their competitors in the East have been doing.

After tonight’s win, the Cavs are 20-7 and have sole possession of the third seed in the conference. They’re percentage points behind the 19-6 Atlanta Hawks for the #2 spot and have the same number of wins as the first-place Celtics, who have played 2 fewer games. The Magic are currently #4 with a 19-7 record.

For all our nitpicking about the content or style of the victories, the Cavs have now put together a 5-game winning streak to rebound from the ugly back-to-back losses to Memphis and Houston.

Meanwhile, Boston’s winning streak was snapped tonight on their own home court by Philly. Certain high profile fans of theirs took enough time out from watching “Jersey Shore” to blame the loss on the refs’ ejecting their 6th man. Yet in their 12 home games to date, the Celtics are just 8-4. The Cavs, meanwhile, are 11-2, with only the 12-2 Hawks above them by virtue of having played an additional game at Philllips Arena.

While I was bitching about the Cavs only beating the Nets by 10, the Magic got obliterated by the Heat in Miami, 104-86, with Dwyane Wade sitting the entire 4th quarter. At one point in the first half the Heat led by 29 points. (Mind you, this was a mere two games after the visiting Memphis Grizzlies demolished Miami by 28.)

The Cavs are also 5-1 in division play — the same division record as the Celtics. The Hawks are .500 within their division at 2-2, the Magic are 3-2. Perhaps most surprising, both of those two teams are behind the Heat at 4-2.

In their last 10 games, the Cavs are locked up with Atlanta for the second-best record in the conference at 8-2. Only Boston is ahead at 9-1. Orlando is a game back of the Cavs and Hawks at 7-3.

If we widen the lens to conference play, Orlando is the #1 team at 15-4, with one of their 4 losses coming in Amway Arena to the Cavs. Boston is #2 at 13-4, the Cavs are #3 at 13-5, and Atlanta is #4 at 10-4.

In terms of efficiency differential, Boston leads the conference at +9.2. Atlanta comes in second at +8.8. The Cavs are third at +5.5, barely edging Orlando at +5.4.

What do all these numbers mean? It’s really hard to say without a more in-depth look. For instance, how do the different divisions within the East compare to one another competitively? Is the Cavs’ 5-1 Central Division record more impressive than Boston’s Atlantic Division record because the teams are better? Who’s had a tougher schedule against the West so far?

One consistent conclusion to draw, though, is that the Cavs are indeed playing with a favorable chance to win the conference in the regular season. Obviously, there’s still two-thirds of the season left to play. But while I’m not going to encourage everone to go rushing to the standings to keep an eye on Boston, Orlando, and Atlanta at all times, it’s a good reminder not to get high or too low without understanding the context. Because for every frustrating game the Cavs have, there’s more than likely something equal or worse happening to one of the other “elite” Eastern teams.

Cavs go to Dallas to play the Mavericks on Sunday. Dirk a possible scratch due to an ugly injury in tonight’s game, where he ended up with bits of Carl Landry’s broken teeth in his elbow(!). The next two weeks will be a very interesting measuring stick, as the competition on this road trip (Dallas, Phoenix, the Lakers) is stiff, followed by a rematch with the Rockets and a home-and-home with Atlanta right before New Year’s. Let’s see where they end up at the dawn of 2010.

-T

12:41am | URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/290074881/cavs-bucks-bazooka-point-widen-the-lens
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FILED UNDER: NBA Cavs Eastern Conference Celtics Magic Boston Orlando

November 18, 2009

Cavs / Warriors: Bazooka Point

The Cavs continued their win streak last night by scraping out a 6-point victory against an undermanned Golden State team. In an attempt to avoid the usual bullet point trope, though, I’m going to try out something new, which is to just pick out one big point about the game and focus the entire “game recap” post on that (you know us, always trying to be different).

Considering the Cavs’ defensive identity during the Mike Brown era, the win over GSW is still a little troubling to me. It continues what’s looking more and more like a continued trend of beating opponents via offensive volume rather than defensive lockdown.

Obviously, getting the win is the most important thing about any game. But the Cavs’ normally suffocating D has looked porous time and time again in the young 2009-10 season. So after allowing the Warriors to crack the 100 point barrier tonight, I decided to try to figure out who was more responsible: the Cavs’ defense, or the Warriors’ offense.

To elaborate a little, new NBA TV analyst Kevin McHale talked about the effect of playing a run-and-gun team like the Warriors. From his days as a player, McHale remembered that facing off against an opponent like this (see: one that plays almost no defense whatsoever) allows a team to be almost tricked into playing a style of basketball that’s not to their advantage.

This is a point that comes up all the time in playoff basketball, especially when teams with opposite styles play one another: which team is going to dictate the pace of the game? Normally, whichever team does this ends up winning, because “dictating pace” essentially means playing in a way that emphasizes your own strengths while taking away the opponents’ strengths.

So for the Cavs to dominate last night’s game, they should’ve tried to slow down the Warriors as much as possible by playing really physical D, limit them to one shot, and then on the offensive side, exploit mismatches by working the ball into the paint, using ball movement to break down the Warriors’ token attempts at defending, and pound the glass by being as physical as possible.

But when it was all said and done, the Cavs had given up 108 points on 88 shots, were outrebounded 37-34, tied the Warriors in assists with 24, lost the turnover battle by 2, and shot 5 fewer FTs than the Warriors.

In short, it looks more like they played the Warriors’ game than vice versa.

But how different is this than what’s happened to the other 9 teams that have played Golden State this year?

The Warriors are now 3-7. Following are the scores to all 10 games. After each score, I’ve listed the opposing team’s season averages for points scored and opponent’s points per game.

HOU 108
GSW 107
HOU ppg: 103.4
HOU opp ppg: 100.3

PHX 123
GSW 101
PHX ppg: 110.4
PHX opp ppg: 106.5

GSW 113
MEM 105
MEM ppg: 99.6
MEM opp ppg: 108.7

LAC 118
GSW 90
LAC ppg: 96.2
LAC opp ppg: 99.5

SAC 120
GSW 107
SAC ppg: 104.6
SAC opp ppg: 105.0

GSW 146
MIN 105
MIN ppg: 90.2
MIN opp ppg: 104.0

IND 108
GSW 94
IND ppg: 101.3
IND opp ppg: 100.0

GSW 121
NYK 107
NYK ppg: 100.5
NYK opp ppg: 110.2

MIL 129
GSW 125
MIL ppg: 100.3
MIL opp ppg: 96.0

CLE 114
GSW 108
CLE ppg: 98.1
CLE opp ppg: 92.9

So of the 10 teams that Golden State has played so far this season, only three of them — the Pacers, the Clippers, and the Suns — have held the Warriors under that team’s average amount of opponent points for 2009-10. In all cases, the Warriors have provoked their opponent to score more than their usual team average, even when Golden State has ultimately won the game.

What this suggests, then, is that the Cavs are not at any kind of unique fault in allowing themselves to play Golden State’s style. In fact, almost everyone in the league so far has fallen into the Warriors’ trap to some extent. I also suspect it’s not a coincidence that one of the teams that held GSW below their opponent’s average ppg was Phoenix — a team bred to outplay the Warriors at their own style.

In other words, the numbers would suggest that last night’s game was less a symptom of who the Cavs are than who they were playing.

A few caveats exist here. First, this is far from a rigorous statistical analysis. It doesn’t take into account shooting percentage or number of shot attempts, which would illustrate more in-depth just how the Warriors are influencing their opponents to both score more and be scored on more.

Second, it’s really hard for me to applaud the Cavs — who are a much better led team than the Warriors — for making what is essentially the average response to Golden State. I told Mike during the course of the game that what I really would’ve loved would have been for the Cavs to come out and say, “OK, these guys are the highest-scoring team in the NBA. Let’s hold them to 85 points.” But that’s not what happened.

However, I don’t want to lose sight of the fact that Shaq and Andy were inactive for the game, and Jamario was injured early in the second half and didn’t return. That took 3 of our best rebounders and two of our most physical players out of the equation, and maybe things would’ve looked very different if they were to play even limited minutes.

Still, after all of this, the best I can do is give the Cavs a pass for this game. I’m comforted a little by the fact that they weren’t one of only a handful of teams to let Golden State dictate the pace, but I’m also disappointed that they didn’t separate themselves from the pack by imposing their will in a more pronounced way and really making an example out of the Warriors.

Final thought: Golden State plays Boston tonight. For reference, the Celtics are scoring an average of 98.5 ppg and giving up an average of 88.3 ppg this year. Keep those numbers in mind as you’re watching the score to that game at the bottom of the Cavs-Wizards contest. Should be an interesting benchmark for how the Cavs measure up to the team that I still hear all the analysts calling “the class of the East,” even after losing both nights of a back-to-back this weekend.

-T

1:04am | URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/248281377/cavs-warriors-bazooka-point
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FILED UNDER: Cavs NBA Warriors Boston Statistics

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