Rumors surfaced this week that Chicago’s front office has registered serious trade interest in Anthony Parker, contingent on the health of his back. The outlines of a deal aren’t in place, so there’s no indication of compensation on the Cavs’ side yet. But since all I think about with the Cavs nowadays are trades, I figured I would spend some time trying to figure out what would be realistic for Chris Grant to get back in an A.P. swap.
Ironically, the Cavs are still dealing with the same trade dynamic they’ve been dealing with for the past few seasons. They just happen to be on the opposite side of it. Contenders are now looking to the Cavs to supply key role players that can help push their nucleus to the next level.
Of course, the hitch is that the contending teams want to give up relatively little to acquire that key role player.They’re also generally pretty asset-light. Their rosters are normally stocked with stars, veterans, and a few developmental young players on contracts complicated by Base Year Compensation rules. In short, even if they were willing to be generous, contending teams often don’t even have many of the assets a rebuilding team wants. Chicago is no different.
Let’s clear this up immediately: there are basically no actual Bulls players that the Cavs would both really want and likely be able to acquire.Taj Gibson (the anti-Glitch, as far as I can tell) is a significant contributor averaging about 23 minutes per game; Chicago’s not giving him up. Omer Asik could possibly be available, but he’s a base year player and thus difficult to incorporate into a deal. Plus, the Cavs already have one developmental 7’ center in CSKA Moscow’s Sasha Kaun. They’d be better served in trying to fill the other myriad holes in the roster.
That leaves James Johnson as the only available young gun on the Bulls’ bench who could fit. He’s no longer on a base year deal. He plays a position of need (SF). But unfortunately, he’s been back and forth to the D-League this year, and his numbers in the majors have not been impressive.
In light of all that, the only appealing offer for Chris Grant revolves around the draft. Chicago still owns their 2011 and 2012 first-round picks. They also hold a future first rounder from Charlotte, but I assume they’d be more prepared to deal one of their own first-round picks than the Charlotte pick because of likely draft order. Meanwhile, Chicago’s second-rounder in both 2011 and 2012 is owed to Milwaukee.
Theoretically then, the best scenario for the Cavs is to demand one of Chicago’s next two first-round picks as the centerpiece of the trade.
After mulling it over, I think Chicago’s front office can justify that pay-out. Right now the Bulls conservatively project to have one of the top five records in basketball, meaning their 2011 first-rounder will be #26 at best. The incoming draft class is weak by most accounts I’ve seen, and the danger of a lock-out grows by the day. With Parker as another serious three point threat to pair with Kyle Korver, the Bulls become a championship-level team with minimal sacrifice.
On top of the “basketball reasons” for the Bulls to pull the trigger, Parker’s status as walking salary relief adds to his trade value. His $2.9M salary comes off the books at the end of this season. This gives the Cavs some bargaining power, as keeping Parker would have clear benefits and should force the Bulls into sweetening the deal with a pick they may not otherwise want to include.
So what’s the likely trade? I can see two possibilities. One would be A.P. for Chicago’s 2011 #1, James Johnson, and Brian Scalabrine. In that case, the Cavs get Johnson as a low-risk project ($1.7M this year, with team options for the next two at about $1.8M each). They would likely buy out Scalabrine’s one-year veteran minimum contract, thereby saving some cash and allowing Scal to return to the end of the Bulls’ bench before the playoffs as an even more translucent version of early 2000s Mark Madsen.
The other possibility would be for the Cavs to replace Johnson in the deal above with Keith Bogans ($1.6M). This is the cleaner deal for the Bulls, since Bogans and Parker play the same position and roughly the same quantity of minutes. Having both players on the roster would be redundant. Bogans (career 107 Defensive Rating) is a slightly better defender than Parker (career 109 Defensive Rating), but not nearly the dead-eye from distance (35% 3P career to Parker’s 41.2% 3P career). The Bulls can live with any minor defensive drop-off to gain the serious bump in firepower.
For the Cavs, there’s little difference between the two versions of the deal. Both are a wash from a financial standpoint. Bogans’s contract for next year is a non-guaranteed $1.73M—basically identical to the $1.8M team option on James Johnson’s contract. Scalabrine would be bought out in either scenario. Bogans would probably do more for the Cavs’ quest to avoid the worst record in NBA history, whereas Johnson has more potential for the future.
But in all likelihood, neither player matters. At their cores, both versions of the deal amount to a 40% off sale on a first-round pick. (The established going rate for straight-up selling a first-rounder is $3M.) Hardly inspiring when defined that way, but still a net positive for the Cavs.
None of this matters if Parker’s back gives out again in the next two weeks, or if a third team gets involved. But if a deal does materialize strictly between the Cavs and Bulls, the over-arching point is that it’s not going to alter the Cavs’ immediate future in a significant way. However, the asset stockpile will grow, and that’s about all we can ask for at this point.
The big buzz - amongst everyone who’s already determined LeBron James will leave Cleveland when he becomes a free agent on midnight of July 1st - is about the possibility of a sign and trade. While I think there is a significant chance James stays with the Cavaliers, I can’t fault people for wanting to talk about a sign and trade. It is at least progressive and forward thinking in the sense that it involves conversations about building for the future and maximizing assets in order to do so.
As we all know, after all, the Cavaliers have not won a title with LeBron in town.
Assuming the projected $56.1M cap sticks and using salary numbers from HoopData, we can talk about which players might come back to Cleveland in a hypothetical sign and trade arrangement. Remember, since the Cavs are over the salary cap, the salaries going out / coming in must match within 125% + $100K.
Before getting into this, I should say that if the Cavs tell James and his team that they’re open to a sign and trade, it opens the door for him to be dealt to any team in the NBA. For the sake of not letting things get out of control, however, I’ll stick to the teams with cap space for now. I’ll also assume that the Cavs wouldn’t be sending any other players out alongside James, although I’m willing to acknowledge that this could be rather unlikely.
Yes, I know this is cheating.
These proposed trades are based on the notion that LeBron’s salary next season, in a max deal, will be $16.6M (105% of his current salary - 30% of the cap would be $16.83M, but we’ll stick with $16.6M). This means that the salary totals involved in the trade would have to fall between $16.6M and $20.85M.
And wow that would be a terrible deal. I like Deng more than a lot of people I know, but he’s owed money through 2014 and Hinrich is owed another $8M in the 2011-12 season. Neither player comes anywhere close to filling the gap that would be left by James (in fairness, no two players probably will), and both have bad contracts.
The Bulls could throw Joakim Noah ($3.1M), Taj Gibson ($1.1M), and James Johnson ($1.7M) on top of Deng, but I doubt James goes to Chicago without Noah - unless he truly hates him - and I would consider Anderson Varejao Noah’s equal anyway. Taj Gibson is Glitch without the upside.
A sign and trade with the Heat is literally impossible unless Miami were to sign a player(s) who is not currently under contract, or a three team deal - maybe with a franchise that is under the cap - could be swung.
In other words, next.
Side note: Remember when there was a debate between Michael Beasley and Derek Rose for the #1 pick? I believe that if Chicago hadn’t won the lottery, Beasley would’ve went first, and Miami may have had a stronger two man core of Dwayne Wade and Rose to add to this offseason. Of course, they still would have had a two man core…
I maintain that Pat Riley did a disservice to Wade, to Miami, and to the NBA by tanking for the past three seasons - no matter what happens this offseason - but that’s another story for another day.
The Knicks are a semi-interesting case only because they open the door to one of the major conversations the Cavaliers front office will be having if it becomes clear James is steadfast on going to another team:
Is it better to get assets in a sign and trade or let James walk and focus on cap space in 2010 and/or 2011?
I bring this up because the Knicks would likely dangle Eddy Curry, who has one year left on his deal at $11.3M. The Knicks could also sign and trade David Lee, giving him to the Cavaliers along with Curry for a combined salary that would fall within the necessary limits.
In this scenario, the Cavs could be in a position to get a quality player in Lee and cap space in 2011, which could be hampered by a lockout and will be governed by a new collective bargaining agreement.
What no one knows is what free agency will look in 2011. Will it still be a relative gamble, where teams largely overpay for talent and run the risk of getting locked into bad contracts (Larry Hughes), or will it be restructured to be more favorable to the owners than to the players?
While all of the signs point to the latter, no one can be certain.
If the Cavaliers let (or force) LeBron to walk without a sign and trade, it will give them about $9.9M to play with in free agency this offseason. Right now I would be against the team signing anyone with that money because of the uncertainty surrounding the new CBA and the fact that star players come in the draft, not free agency. No one wants to hear this, but if LeBron leaves, the Cavs should be trying to get back into the lottery as soon as f’ing possible.
I touched on this with the Bulls, but the Nets provide something else for James to consider - is he willing to give up maximum money (by this I mean a 6 year deal) and leave without a sign and trade so that the team he’s going to is able to keep all of its assets?
The numbers are close, for example, on the Nets giving the Cavaliers the following players for James:
Devin Harris: $9M Yi Jianlian: $4M Terence Williams: $2.2M Courtney Lee: $1.4M
But then LeBron has to go to a New Jersey team that no longer has a point guard who was once an all star. And who knows what kinds of draft picks the Cavs might be able to force out of their trading partner, as well.
As many people have already written, we’re going to learn a lot about LeBron James in the window after July 1st.
I’ll be back on Monday to write about more potential sign and trade options with different teams.
The series is over. The Cavs win in 5 games, as myself, Tim, and DAD.com predicted.
So why does Cleveland feel like the above image?
Because the game was close. Because the Cavs offense got stagnant like it did during the regular season. Because Mo Williams failed to show up again (2-13 from the field, although he was +1 for the game). Because the Cavs missed a lot of free throws (64.3%).
In other words, some of the issues we saw during the regular season manifested again, tonight, in the postseason. And, I suppose, they nearly cost the Cavs the game.
However, it didn’t. Cleveland still won. And I should remind everyone that last year the eventual champion Los Angeles Lakers needed 7 games to beat an undermanned Houston Rockets team in the second round. In 2008, the soon-to-be-crowned king Boston Celtics didn’t win a game on the road until the Eastern Conference Finals. Things turned out well enough for both of those teams.
But the issues do give us some things to talk about moving forward.
For one, we’re seeing the Cavs struggle to gel. Shaq played better tonight. His defense at the rim had an impact, and he and Anderson Varejao held Joakim Noah off of the offensive glass. He still got in foul trouble and had 4 turnovers in only 26 minutes, and you could make an argument that all of the time spent feeding Shaq in the post contributed to the offense being stagnant in the third and fourth quarters.
The other element is how Williams and Jamison play together. Simply put, tonight they couldn’t figure it out. With Mo shooting as poorly as he had been, and the Bulls completely unable to stop Jamison, the Cavs spent a lot of time on offense with Mo in the second half at the expense of Jamison, who scored only 5 points in the last 24 minutes on just 3 shots.
The good thing is that the Cavs have Jamison to count on. The bad thing is that they didn’t count on him enough.
But Williams continues to be problematic, as he’s a liability on defense - meaning he’s a liability everywhere when he’s not making shots. This will be an issue in the Boston series: it’s not like Rajon Rondo isn’t going to fall asleep tonight with dreams of blow-bys running through his mind. Rondo (46.9% from 10-15 feet and 33% from 16-23 feet) isn’t as good of a perimeter shooter as Rose (50% from 10-15 feet and 44% from 16-23), but Boston has better shot makers than Chicago. Essentially, keeping Rondo out of the middle of the paint will be crucial.
And I know that Mo can’t do that.
So what then?
It will be interesting to see how Coldstone chooses to play this. In limited time, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon were more effective on Rose than Mo and Delonte West. Bron, in my opinion, didn’t guard Rose enough in the 4th quarter of the close games in the series - and, I suspect, when it comes down to money time in the Boston games, he’ll be guarding Paul Pierce. If you think back to two years ago, Coldstone had Delonte play off of Rondo and basically roam. Then, last year, a similar tactic was employed on Rafer Alston but with LeBron instead of Delonte as the roamer. What I think will be worth watching is how often the Cavs go with Delonte at the point, Moon or Parker at the 2, and Mo on the bench - with the taller, longer Moon/Parker guarding Rondo. If Mo keeps shooting poorly, it could be more often than any of us might have anticipated.
Relax until Saturday. We got what we wanted. Cavs and Celtics. 2008 rematch. Let’s hope for some great basketball.
Tonight, the Cavs waxed the Bulls on 53.2% shooting. Bron had a triple double. Antawn Jamison shot 56.3%, including one make from 3P. Mo Williams shot 60%, including 67% from 3P, with 4 made buckets. Overall, the team shot 48.0% from 3P.
For all intents and purposes, the series is now over. Not officially. But close.
This means that our attention, as analysts, has to turn at least somewhat to preparing for a likely matchup against the Boston Celtics in round two. Not coincidentally, this gives us a good opportunity to raise two points about two subjects, both of which have very little to do with actual execution on the basketball court.
1) Coldstone’s usage of Shaq and Z.
2) Bron’s demeanor.
When it comes to the first subject, we can see how difficult a job Mike Brown has - and why the trolls harassing him on sports talk radio in Cleveland need to calm down.
While Shaq and Z aren’t having much of an impact in this series, they’re going to be needed in subsequent series, and Coldstone has to walk a fine line of doing whatever it takes to beat the Bulls while also working to insure that his team is as prepared as possible to defeat Boston and Orlando (who knows what will happen out west). For this reason, Coldstone has to play Shaq and Z - he has to operate with an understanding of the bigger picture - perhaps sacrificing the margin of victory, or even a loss along the way because those guys … very old guys … need consistent minutes to be effective.
The playoffs are a complex animal when you’re a veteran #1 seed. Nothing should be taken for granted, i.e. Coldstone can’t assume Cleveland will beat Chicago … but, at the same time, he knows what he knows.
This is also why sometimes the rotations look funny in the regular season. It’s prep time, as Phil Jackson explains in The Last Season, the book he wrote about the ill-fated Los Angeles Lakers team that added Gary Payton, Karl Malone, and a rape trial in Colorado to it. Luke Walton played in the regular season … in case he was needed in the playoffs.
In this way, coaches go against the grain in order to (hopefully) dictate the future in a positive manner. What’s interesting is that LeBron has apparently done the same thing, by changing his demeanor (at least according to Jamison, who told Heather Cox he had never seen Bron like this before prior to the start of game four).
Although, ultimately, the game turned out how he hoped - and the majority of his teammates played well - I have to question Bron’s wisdom in deciding to change his attitude and approach. As the leader of the team, he’s expected to be in charge, to stay calm, to be even keeled. Dramatically changing one’s demeanor doesn’t fall in line with this. His changing attitude could possibly lead to the other players on the team feeling like something is wrong, perceiving an added pressure that negatively affects their play. In my opinion, Bron needs to make them feel like everything will be okay no matter what - he’s got them … turning into the Grim Reaper all of a sudden, doesn’t exactly declare that.
So now that round one is basically over, track the psychological element in game five. Read the team’s attitude. Read Coldstone’s conversations with Shaq and Z about playing time. Interpret Bron’s demeanor and its affect on his teammates. These things all matter, if not on Tuesday, some other day along the way.
Here’s the reality: if LeBron goes 39 / 10 / 8 on better than 50% shooting, Mo scores 21 points on 7-16 FG, and the Cavs shoot 40% 3FG as a team while winning the rebounding battle and going +6 in FTA, they should win the game.
Tonight, they didn’t.
Yes, as I predicted, the Bulls got uncharacteristically hot from the outside in game 3 and won. Here are some splits for you:
CHI FG%: season 45.1% | tonight 50%
CHI 3P%: season 33.0% | tonight 41.7% (5-12 3P)
Kirk Hinrich FG%: season 40.9% | tonight 75% (9-12 FG)
Kirk Hinrich 3P%: season 37.9% | tonight 100% (4-4 3P)
While they didn’t match their all-time playoff TO record from game 2, the Bulls still only coughed it up 8 times, or about 6 fewer than their season average (14.3).
Part of this is luck, yes. But enough went wrong on the Cavs’ side that they can’t just dismiss this as “one of those games.” For instance, luck is much easier to come by if your opponent gives you wide open shots, refuses to pressure the ball, or get physical. In Coldstone’s parlance, Chicago most definitely did not “feel” the Cavs tonight, and the Cavs paid the price for it, to the tune of 108 points allowed.
Despite scoring 106 points of their own, the offense was hardly a masterpiece either. The Cavs missed 11 FTs as a team, including 6 shanks by Bron and 3 by Mo. (That’s right, Mo shot 40% FT tonight.) Shaq shot a sad 2-8, including a missed dunk. Andy seems lost somehow, getting only one shot from the field in 20 minutes (though he also got to the line 4 times). Parker went 2-7 (2-6 3P).
It looks like our pals at Hoop Data are having some website issues, so I can’t reference specifically how many of the Cavs shots were from the perimeter, but it seemed to me the answer was “a lot,” particularly in the first half. Their team assist total of 21—the league average this season—is more evidence of this.
By no means am I suggesting panic. Despite all of the above (and about 3 suspect foul calls in the closing minutes), the Cavs still only lost the game by 2 points and lead the series 2-1. The Lakers dropped a game to the Thunder out west. And even if you REALLY wanted to get ahead of yourself, remember that it took the 2008 Celtics 7 games each to win both of their first two series, and they went on to bring home the title anyway.
But the Bulls are now feeling confident, and the Cavs as a whole know that their play has been sub-par enough that serious work needs to be done. So it’s time for all of them to take a look in the mirror and realize that this is on them. Game 3 may end up being one of those “kick in the ass” games that good teams need from time to time to re-focus themselves. But we won’t know that until Sunday. Let’s just hope the rest of my prediction for the series is as accurate as the first 3 games have been.
