Continuing my series on the threats to the Cavs this upcoming off-season, tonight I want to sift through the wreckage that is the LA Clippers. I’m not going to spend any more time on the “big market” argument or the “attractive locale” argument because I’ve covered both in my analyses of the Knicks and Heat previously. So let’s keep moving.
Before the season began, I took a pretty in-depth look at the Clips’ roster and how it compared with the Cavs’. I just re-read it, and there are a couple of “I told you so” moments in it. First, the precaution that Blake Griffin could easily get knocked out of the ROY race by injury; second, that analysts should discard any reference to Al Thornton as a supporting cast member who might intrigue Bron, since the Clips would likely throw him overboard if they were going to go after Bron because of redundancy at the 3; third, a general scoff at the once-hyped notion that the Clippers would make the playoffs this year.
For reference, the Clippers are currently 25-38, 11.5 games out of the last playoff spot, 20.5 games back in their division. They’re on pace to win approximately 5 more games for a final record of 30-53.
On its own, that record puts the Clippers in a decent zone of appeal for free agents—just competitive enough that a major star could feel like his presence could catapult them into the playoffs. This is especially true when you consider that Bully won’t play a single game this season.
However, the troubling thing about the Clippers is that they have the stench of ages on them. The organization has been a laughingstock for decades. I pointed out in my earlier post that in their 25 seasons since moving to LA, the Clippers have lost 60 or more games 7 different times, 50 or more games 17 times. They won 23 games in 2007-8, 19 games in 2008-9, and are on pace for 30 in 2009-10.
This is a particularly interesting red flag because of another major difference between the Clippers and teams like the Nets, Knicks, and Heat. Unlike those other franchises, the Clippers’ front office has never intentionally emptied their roster of talent for the sake of accumulating cap space. Instead, they have a roster that’s one rookie away from the team that some people thought could be a playoff team. And they’re going to be lucky to win 30 games.
Here’s where the “Bully corollary” comes in. Clippers fans will say, “Yeah, well, they’re only going to win 30, but that’s because Griffin was injured for the whole season. Just wait til he’s healthy. He plays like a complete animal.” Cynic that I am, I would instead say, “Yeah, well, they’re only going to win 30 and their #1 overall pick already missed his entire rookie campaign with an injury. He plays like a complete animal. He may never be healthy.”
In fact, since 2008, Blake Griffin has suffered the following injuries:
Jan 2008: sprained MCL
March 2008: torn cartilage in knee. Required surgery.
Feb 2009: concussion.
Oct 2009: stress fracture in left knee. Injury did not heal properly and had to be operated on, forcing him out for the rest of what would’ve been his rookie season.
Personally, if I’m LeBron, I’d be very pessimistic about the number of games Griffin would be out on the floor with me in a Clipper uni.
For comparison’s sake, Bill Walton missed 203 of 410 possible games in his first 5 NBA seasons. The Clippers, ironically enough, signed him to a six-year deal afterwards. He played 14 games total in the first 3 years there, and only 169 of a possible 492 over the length of the contract. Meanwhile, we all know how dependable Greg Oden’s body has been for his first two seasons. Anyone who can be put on the same list as those two guys is not necessarily someone I’d be willing to jump franchises for.
Then, there’s the issue of ownership.
Before we even get into basketball operations, Donald Sterling’s primary claim to fame is having had to settle multiple housing discrimination cases for buildings he owns. This includes shelling out the largest apartment-based settlement in the history of the Department of Justice. For details on his alleged history of racist discrimination, I’d recommend this article.
Now, to the Clippers…Donald Sterling is the polar opposite of Dan Gilbert. He’s known as a tight-fisted, unreasonable wraith with a history of hiring awful front office personnel, then not firing them when they’ve undeniably demonstrated their incompetence. Primarily, he refuses to fire these people because he doesn’t ever want to pay money to someone who’s not actually working for him (which also makes him the polar opposite of Randy “Lost In Space” Lerner, but that’s another post). Because of all this, he’s also the guy principally responsible for this 2000 Sports Illustrated cover story.
SI was justified in their analysis, and nothing has changed since then. Starting with the 2000 season, the Clippers are a combined 316-485, including only one winning season and one playoff appearance (both in the 2005-6 season). Not exactly a drastic turn-around. Or any kind of turn-around.
In light of all of this, I believe it’s foolish to think about the Clippers’ roster in a vacuum. Yes, to the layman’s eye they have some talent.* Chris Kaman was an All-Star this year. Baron Davis has played well and is a recognizable name. Many people think highly of Eric Gordon. Blake Griffin was the #1 overall pick. DeAndre Jordan and Craig Smith have both been touted as promising young big men.
(*Note: advanced stats are not so kind to most of these players. For instance, in WP48, the Clippers had exactly 2 players who ranked above average at the halfway point of this season…and one of them is now playing in Portland.)
But even if someone wants to drink the proverbial Kool-Aid on these players, it’s ignorant to forget that the Clippers have literally sucked for almost 25 straight years, both as a team and an organization. If you’re LeBron, is this really the train you want to hitch your wagon to?
The other supposed positive in the Clippers’ favor is that they will basically allow their free agent target to select his own coach. (Interim coach Kim Hughes will finish out the season but not be retained past then.) But this is only so helpful, since any coach considering going to the Clippers has to wrestle with the same “guilt by association” question I just asked.
In fact, this situation ultimately could hurt the Clippers. If Bron’s hypothetical coaching target turned down the opportunity because he didn’t want to leave wherever he was for the historical minefield of Clipperland, presumably Bron this would submarine the Clippers’ deal for LeBron as well.
My final thought on all this for tonight: remember, Kobe was “on the verge” of becoming a Clipper in 2004…until he decided not to risk tainting himself with the special virus that’s been flowing through the Clippers’ bloodstream for a quarter-century. Instead, he re-signed with the only team he’d ever played for, partially because the Lakers could offer him an extra year and an extra $30M that the Clippers couldn’t.
Have you heard those figures anywhere else before? I’ll save you the time of combing through this article and just pull out the following quote:
“It doesn’t take business acumen to understand the numbers of the NBA. On a maximum contract this summer, the Cavaliers can offer James an extra year and about $30 million more than any other team.”
There’s obviously one big difference between the Lakers of 2004 and the Cavs of 2010. The Lakers had won three titles during Kobe’s time there. As of now, we know how many the Cavs have won during LeBron’s career. If that number remains the same as it is today, then the Clippers could become much less of a dark horse for LeBron’s services. But until then, logic rules the day, and I suggest we all take heart that like bad teams, bad organizations will find a way to lose this one.
-T
