I’ve been watching the Indians play a lot more frequently now that basketball season is over and August is approaching, the slowest month of the year in Hollywood. As I’ve already alluded to, I’ve largely enjoyed watching the games, even though baseball has its problems. It is an ideal sport to put on TV in the background when you’re doing something else.
You probably already know that the Indians have been playing the Yankees since Monday. On Tuesday night, while watching just called up Josh Tomlin throw 7 innings of no walk, no home run baseball, I was stricken by the gigantic discrepancy between the star power on the Yankees and that of the Indians.
Tomlin versus CC Sabathia. Alex Rodriguez versus Jhonny Peralta. Derek Jeter versus Asdrubal Cabrera. Curtis Granderson versus Trevor Crowe…
I could go on, but I won’t. At least in terms of the national perception - and really the historic background of the players themselves - it was almost like the Yankees were an All-Star team, and the Indians were a bunch of minor leaguers.
Which actually isn’t that far from the truth.
At any rate, however, I was also taken by how much more fun it was to root for the Indians precisely because of this fact. That they ended up beating the Yankees 4-1 made for an even better experience.
Like neuroscience / culture writer Jonah Lehrer talked about here, there is a lot to be said about rooting for the underdog. Although it happens naturally with any team, even those that are not our favorites, it’s even better when your favorite team is the underdog - and, of course, when they win.
I started to realize then, that there is a flip side to all the negative things you’ve heard and we’ve written about the NBA’s move towards super teams. When LeBron, Bosh, and Wade decided to join together in Miami, they also indirectly created a whole new set of underdogs. Watching good but not great teams like the Milwaukee Bucks, or up and coming teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder compete against the Heat will be ten times more enjoyable now. And although I will certainly miss watching James and Wade try to beat each other’s brains in on the floor, the Cavs-Heat game will take on an entirely different, but still quite substantive, competitive character now that Cleveland is resoundingly an underdog team.
This realization on my part, I thought, was a positive sign about life as a sports fan in Cleveland. Rooting for the underdog may not be the same as winning a championship, but it is something pretty great, and something to be cherished.
And if and when the underdog wins the title, that might just be the best thing ever.
Between LeBron, Chris Paul, and practically everyone else in the NBA any time there’s a trade of any significance, I’ve come to a strange conclusion: I’m sick of hearing about championships.
I don’t mean to say that I believe NBA players shouldn’t be thinking about winning or trying to win. By their very nature, every professional athlete should be wired to compete, to dominate, to conquer. If they’re not, they should be making their living doing something else instead.
My problem is with the way championships are now perceived. From what I can tell, the title of every professional sport has become a check box—something that every player with an eye toward his legacy believes he must be able to mark off. If not, the thinking is that the player automatically becomes second-rate.
Since it’s always the default comparison in this case, just consider the difference between how Charles Barkley (off-court issues aside) and MJ are perceived. Barkley’s empty ring fingers seem to have made him a cautionary tale to every pro basketball player of subsequent generations. Yet, during his career, Chuck was an absolute monster. If you don’t believe me, check his stats—and keep in mind while you’re doing it that he was putting up those numbers at power forward while standing a mere 6’-6”.
Unfortunately, the first thing that comes to mind at the mention of Chuck’s name is the glaring lack of a championship on his resume. Now, players like LeBron, Chris Paul, and everyone else born after 1980 look at Barkley like the poster child of some kind of pro basketball “Scared Straight” campaign. (“Don’t lift the Larry O’Brien trophy, and you’ll end up like him!”)
Championships have somehow become the be-all, end-all in every sporting discussion. There’s an entire segment of the population that believes the “Kobe vs. LeBron” discussion is idiotic simply because LeBron is ringless. Therefore, how can he even be considered in the same breath as Kobe Bryant, 5-time champion?
As a result, the possibility of potentially doing something historic, of assuming greater risk for the possibility of greater reward, has become irrelevant. There is nothing—not loyalty, not an emotional connection to a place or a fan base or teammates—as important as a championship. Because without one, what are you, really?
This, I believe, is the primary motivator behind the power moves this generation’s superstars are now pulling. LeBron willing to go to Miami to play a supporting role to Wade? Better than not winning a championship. Chris Paul making every effort to burn the sports fans of one of the most unique and real-life ill-fated cities in the country? At least he won’t be the failure who could never win the Finals.
This isn’t necessarily the fault of the young players themselves. It’s the inevitable result of how we as a sporting culture have set our priorities. In team sports, the teams are obviously made up of individuals. Especially in the case of baskestball, where only 5 men are on the court for a team at any given time, the impact of a single player can be enormous. At the same time, no player is ever alone on the court, so pinning the ultimate success or failure of the team on one person is inherently illogical.
There’s a paradox at work, too, because we certainly honor individual greatness. But in a bizarre way, we respect the individual’s impact so much that his team’s failures become the individual’s fault. It’s even evident in the language when we discuss this topic. Very seldom do we say “Charles Barkley’s Suns never won the title.” We simply say, “Charles Barkley never won the title.” After all, why skirt around the damnation by acknowledging reality?
This is why I’m disappointed in Chris Paul’s trade demands, and in LeBron’s decision to merge with a rival rather than try to knock him out. On some level, I feel like those guys are surrendering. They would rather diminish their own greatness, the possibility of what *could* happen, for what they believe is a guarantee that they’ll be able to check off the championship box. They’re playing it safe—and doing it partially because we’ve all made them believe that that’s the only thing that matters.
It’s also why part of me wants to defend Mo Williams, who begged not to be traded because Cleveland has become his home and he believes the Cavs can get it done; or Byron Scott, who took the Cavs’ coaching job without any security that the team would be a contender next year. For all their other faults, these are men who believe in something greater than popular opinion. They understand that there are possibilities but no guarantees. (As Shaq said this past year, “I won four championships. Three of them? Lucky as hell.”) And above all else, they have values or desires that exceed catering to the fans and analysts and past greats blinded by jewelry. They stand for something.
I wish I could say the same for more of the players who make my favorite sport run.
Something we’ve probably all been wondering about - openly or not - is whether the Cavaliers will still be fun to watch in 2010-11, even if they end up not being competitive.
I think I have an answer to this question because I’ve been watching the Indians when I have free time …
The answer is yes.
Unless every single game is a total blowout, watching young players fight to win and make a name for themselves - so long as they do so in the best interest of the team - can actually be really fun. Part of it may be hallucinatory - us getting our hopes u thinking, Yeah, maybe Christian Eyenga really will become the next LeBron - but even that can be fun.
In fact, there is a certain part of me that actually enjoys watching teams that are going nowhere more than teams that are vying for the championship. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little bit relieved to be able to sit down and watch the NBA Finals without having a horse in the race. Without anxiety - which I have enough of already - looming over me.
This isn’t to say that I don’t deeply love watching sports when there’s a lot on the line not only for the players but for the fans I’ve aligned myself with. However, I have tried to detach myself from winning and losing as time has gone on. I remember feeling absolutely horrible for days after the Indians lost to the Red Sox in game 7 of the ALCS in 2007. After that, I decided that I never wanted to feel that way again - not when it came to things I couldn’t control.
So even when our favorite teams may not be in contention for a title, they can still be a pleasure to follow and watch, just as long as they’re not getting blown out. Plus, it’s always fun to root against other teams. And thankfully the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Heat, and now maybe the Magic or the Knicks (shout to CP3) aren’t going to be contracted any time soon.
If all else fails, there’s Carlos Santana, who has a great “I love to win” personality (watch his actions after he catches a third strike) and who also seems to be an equally great talent (it’s early, but he has a .978 OPS).
Enjoy the weekend, homies. Just say no to the Chris Paul and LeBron James version of doing what’s best for you and your family.
After a discussion with WP48 expert Holland, I realized that I semi-botched my projection of the Cavs’ team performance this upcoming season. I wanted to take some time tonight to correct the analysis.
For those of you actually interested in advanced statistics, the main error involves some of the nuances of WP48. The purest form of the metric involves position adjustments. For example, a point guard’s WP48 performance isn’t weighted in exactly the same way as a center’s. Without adjusting, the metric heavily favors big men because they’re so much more likely to, say, get rebounds and shoot a higher percentage, as well as much less likely to turn the ball over (all important components of the entire scheme).
My source for WP48 was Basketball Reference, which is still a fantastic resource for advanced stats. However, if anyone out there wants to use it, keep in mind that the WP48 figures they give appear to be unadjusted.
OK, with the explanation out of the way, here are the adjusted WP48 totals for the roster hold-overs from last season. I kept all of the other parameters the same as in the original post.
Varejao = .181 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 11.1 wins
Mo = .116 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 7.1 wins
Moon = .191 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 11.7 wins
Hickson = .123 WP48 x 20 mpg x 82 games = 4.2 wins
Gibson = .042 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 0.6 wins
Jamison = .194 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 games = 11.9 wins
Parker = .081 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 games = 5.0 wins
Powe = .000 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 0 wins
Green = .074 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.1 wins
Jawad = -.069 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = -1.1 wins
Telfair = .020 WP48 x 4 mpg x 82 games = 0.1 wins
TOTAL PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 52 wins
So after adjusting for position, WP48 actually projects the Cavs to win one additional game beyond what the unadjusted numbers projected. This is mostly due to dramatically increased ratings for Moon and Jamison. Their gains more than offset significantly lower ratings for players like Mo, Gibson, Parker, Powe, and Jawad.
The other error I made in Monday’s post had to do with the expected error involved in the calculation.
I said at the time that WP48 predicted win totals to about 80% accuracy. I undershot. It’s actually (allegedly) accurate to within 94%. The error range is about +/- 1.5 games. Essentially, what this means is that the 2010-11 Cavs have a 94% chance of winning somewhere between 50.5 and 53.5 games.
Let me repeat that: if no changes are made to the current roster, and the rotation looks something like what I’ve outlined above, the Cavs allegedly have a 94% chance to win at least 50 games in their first season without LeBron. That’s +20 wins higher than what even the most optimistic sports pundit (that I’ve seen, anyway) has predicted for the team next season.
Of course, if Byron Scott chooses to start Jawad at 3 over Moon, this entire projection goes out the window. And I might, too. (Though I live on the first story, so the effect would probably be pretty muted.) But for now, things are definitely looking up.
Now, as I noted in my original post on this topic, I still think we’re running a significant risk in these projections if we only look at the numbers from last season. (Unfortunately, I don’t have adjusted career WP48 numbers.)
One of the points where I split with the WP48 philosophy has to do with synergy, for lack of a better term. The WP48 system assumes that player production is an inherent trait determined by the player’s skill level. In other words, he will produce roughly the same over time regardless of who the other 4 men on the court next to him are, not to mention who the 5 defending him are.
I, on the other hand, believe that a player’s teammates have a significant effect on what he’s capable of doing. For example, a spot-up 3-point shooter gets much better looks if he’s playing with someone on the front line who demands a double-team. Theoretically, he should be more open for his shots and should drain a higher percentage. I would argue that Mo Williams has been a great example of this. In his 2 seasons with the Cavs, he’s shot 43.6% 3P and 42.9% 3P, respectively. In the previous 4 seasons in which he’d played significant minutes with Milwaukee, his career high from beyond the arc was 38.5%. That’s a 4.5-5% uptick since starting next to LeBron.
This will be one of the elements to keep your eye on this coming season. Can the Cavs players find a way to do what they did with LeBron? As Mike pointed out, their current roster has a very low number of guys capable of creating shots for themselves. We’ll see how that affects things, along with the new up-tempo system Scott is already implementing in the Vegas Summer League. (Side note: WP48 disregards pace, so in theory this shouldn’t affect the projected win total. I remain skeptical on this point, but that’s a discussion for another day.)
That said, if things proceed as I expect, I still plan on checking into the over/under on Cleveland’s win total for 2010-11 if I’m in Vegas before the season starts.
All right, I think this is the last numbers-centric post I’m doing for a little while. Pseudo-philosophy, pseudo-psychology, and pseudo-humor back next week.
After taking some time to think about LeBron James’s basketball version of The Bachelor this past Thursday night, one thing has remained constant for me:
I’m saddened by the fact that I will no longer be able to watch James and Dwyane Wade try to kill each other on the basketball court.
Back in April when James spoke regretfully of how guys in the league didn’t hate each other anymore, like how they did in the great rivalries of yesteryear, I was rather enthusiastic about his future. I believed we were seeing a young man transform into a fierce competitor, that this was an extension of the mentality we witnessed at the end of the ‘09 playoffs when he didn’t shake hands with the Orlando Magic. I was hoping he would help lead a sea change amongst his peers, that I’d never ever have to hear about Chris Paul eating dinner with Tony Parker the night before a Hornets-Spurs playoff game like I did in 2008.
Competitive zeal is, in my mind, a critical component of sports, and one of the major reasons I enjoy watching them so much.
So never did I think it would come to this. To James teaming up with his two buddies from the Olympic team, so they could hold hands while they chase after rings, wearing matching suits and playing for the franchise that tanked its last two seasons and retired the jersey of a competitor. But I suppose after watching James play a completely angst-less, mentally absent, series against the Boston Celtics in the second round of this year’s playoffs, I shouldn’t have been surprised.
At the same time, in a way, James has also fulfilled the promise of his post-game comments: he’s made the Miami Heat the most hated team in the NBA. The tragic part about this, however, is that he didn’t do it by creating rivalries on the court, he did it by acting narcissistic and completely unaware in front of the entire world on a ridiculous TV show that was then exacerbated by a pro wrestling style introduction in Miami the following day.
I, for one, will always associate the impact of “The Decision” itself with the children in the audience who gasped in horror when James said he was going to “take [his] talents to South Beach.”
And this is certainly how much of Cleveland felt - or would have felt if James’s image as a competitor and teammate loving fun guy hadn’t already been chipped away at during, and especially after, the aforementioned Boston series. Ironically, James and the Cavaliers now have the potential to create one of the biggest rivalries in league history - Miami versus Cleveland.
As soon as the Cavaliers can get back to being championship caliber competitive, and let’s all hope it’s before James’s career is over, a Miami-Cleveland playoff series might just be the most dramatic storyline/ hatred-filled group of games anyone could ever dream up. You thought Brett Favre versus the Packers was something? You thought Derek Fisher took heat in Utah after he left to play for the Lakers? Shaq versus Kobe? Forget it. This would really be LeBron James versus Cleveland and, by extension, the rest of the world.
In fact, this could be the kind of thing that actually galvanized the city, and the perception of the city from afar, in a positive direction.
And as a side note, let’s not forget that the Cavs gave the Heat the worst drubbing in NBA history.
As for this coming season, I’ll do my best to not feel completely out of whack. It will be very strange to finding myself rooting for teams that play Miami that I normally despise, teams like the Magic and the Lakers.
Noted: I have one more LBJ column to write, for Thursday, about the confusing psychology of his decision and the reason it’s so hard for people in Cleveland to understand, and then I will have officially moved on.
In the meantime, the Cavs will compete in a summer league game in Las Vegas tonight at 6 PM Eastern. Christian Eyenga, Danny “DDR” Green, and JJ “Glitch” Hickson are the key players. In my mind, it’s a glitch that JJ still needs to play in the summer league, since this will be his third season in the NBA.
