Tonight’s question has to do with streak shooting, specifically how to value a hypothetical player who - over the course of 82 games - shot something like 80% in 41 of the games and 20% in the others, resulting in an overall shooting percentage of 50%, which I think we all would agree, is very good, especially if he is playing the 1 or the 2 (for reference 43.6% is average this season for guards).
Would you be okay with this guy on your team, or would you prefer to have a guy who shot, say, 60% in one half of his games and 40% in the other?
As far as I know, none of the advanced stats account for consistency. And it may be because numbers-minded analysts/journalists/fans don’t believe in “the hot hand” or the consistency of streakiness … and, to go one step further, I’m not sure there is any empirical evidence to support the existence of extremely streaky shooters…
But I would sure like to know if there was.
The general idea is that an extremely streaky shooter would help your team win by a bunch of points some nights and help them lose by a bunch of points other nights. The overall effect would probably be the same either way (or, for that matter, if a team had a player who shot exactly 50% every single night). Since a team’s point differential is the best predictor of future success, i.e. winning percentage, winning two games by 1 point each or winning one game by 20 points and losing another by 18 points says the same thing, statistically speaking, about the quality of a team.
Of course, that would all change in the playoffs because you can’t wait 82 games for things to even out.
My gut tells me I’d rather have the consistent shooter for that exact reason … but, then again, I might also want the streaky shooter, just so long as I can guarantee that he’s streaking for the Conference Finals and the Finals.
Oh yeah, the Cavs beat the Spurs by two points tonight, after Mo Williams made a couple of key free throws :)
Continuing my series on the threats to the Cavs this upcoming off-season, tonight I want to sift through the wreckage that is the LA Clippers. I’m not going to spend any more time on the “big market” argument or the “attractive locale” argument because I’ve covered both in my analyses of the Knicks and Heat previously. So let’s keep moving.
Before the season began, I took a pretty in-depth look at the Clips’ roster and how it compared with the Cavs’. I just re-read it, and there are a couple of “I told you so” moments in it. First, the precaution that Blake Griffin could easily get knocked out of the ROY race by injury; second, that analysts should discard any reference to Al Thornton as a supporting cast member who might intrigue Bron, since the Clips would likely throw him overboard if they were going to go after Bron because of redundancy at the 3; third, a general scoff at the once-hyped notion that the Clippers would make the playoffs this year.
For reference, the Clippers are currently 25-38, 11.5 games out of the last playoff spot, 20.5 games back in their division. They’re on pace to win approximately 5 more games for a final record of 30-53.
On its own, that record puts the Clippers in a decent zone of appeal for free agents—just competitive enough that a major star could feel like his presence could catapult them into the playoffs. This is especially true when you consider that Bully won’t play a single game this season.
However, the troubling thing about the Clippers is that they have the stench of ages on them. The organization has been a laughingstock for decades. I pointed out in my earlier post that in their 25 seasons since moving to LA, the Clippers have lost 60 or more games 7 different times, 50 or more games 17 times. They won 23 games in 2007-8, 19 games in 2008-9, and are on pace for 30 in 2009-10.
This is a particularly interesting red flag because of another major difference between the Clippers and teams like the Nets, Knicks, and Heat. Unlike those other franchises, the Clippers’ front office has never intentionally emptied their roster of talent for the sake of accumulating cap space. Instead, they have a roster that’s one rookie away from the team that some people thought could be a playoff team. And they’re going to be lucky to win 30 games.
Here’s where the “Bully corollary” comes in. Clippers fans will say, “Yeah, well, they’re only going to win 30, but that’s because Griffin was injured for the whole season. Just wait til he’s healthy. He plays like a complete animal.” Cynic that I am, I would instead say, “Yeah, well, they’re only going to win 30 and their #1 overall pick already missed his entire rookie campaign with an injury. He plays like a complete animal. He may never be healthy.”
In fact, since 2008, Blake Griffin has suffered the following injuries:
Jan 2008: sprained MCL
March 2008: torn cartilage in knee. Required surgery.
Feb 2009: concussion.
Oct 2009: stress fracture in left knee. Injury did not heal properly and had to be operated on, forcing him out for the rest of what would’ve been his rookie season.
Personally, if I’m LeBron, I’d be very pessimistic about the number of games Griffin would be out on the floor with me in a Clipper uni.
For comparison’s sake, Bill Walton missed 203 of 410 possible games in his first 5 NBA seasons. The Clippers, ironically enough, signed him to a six-year deal afterwards. He played 14 games total in the first 3 years there, and only 169 of a possible 492 over the length of the contract. Meanwhile, we all know how dependable Greg Oden’s body has been for his first two seasons. Anyone who can be put on the same list as those two guys is not necessarily someone I’d be willing to jump franchises for.
Then, there’s the issue of ownership.
Before we even get into basketball operations, Donald Sterling’s primary claim to fame is having had to settle multiple housing discrimination cases for buildings he owns. This includes shelling out the largest apartment-based settlement in the history of the Department of Justice. For details on his alleged history of racist discrimination, I’d recommend this article.
Now, to the Clippers…Donald Sterling is the polar opposite of Dan Gilbert. He’s known as a tight-fisted, unreasonable wraith with a history of hiring awful front office personnel, then not firing them when they’ve undeniably demonstrated their incompetence. Primarily, he refuses to fire these people because he doesn’t ever want to pay money to someone who’s not actually working for him (which also makes him the polar opposite of Randy “Lost In Space” Lerner, but that’s another post). Because of all this, he’s also the guy principally responsible for this 2000 Sports Illustrated cover story.
SI was justified in their analysis, and nothing has changed since then. Starting with the 2000 season, the Clippers are a combined 316-485, including only one winning season and one playoff appearance (both in the 2005-6 season). Not exactly a drastic turn-around. Or any kind of turn-around.
In light of all of this, I believe it’s foolish to think about the Clippers’ roster in a vacuum. Yes, to the layman’s eye they have some talent.* Chris Kaman was an All-Star this year. Baron Davis has played well and is a recognizable name. Many people think highly of Eric Gordon. Blake Griffin was the #1 overall pick. DeAndre Jordan and Craig Smith have both been touted as promising young big men.
(*Note: advanced stats are not so kind to most of these players. For instance, in WP48, the Clippers had exactly 2 players who ranked above average at the halfway point of this season…and one of them is now playing in Portland.)
But even if someone wants to drink the proverbial Kool-Aid on these players, it’s ignorant to forget that the Clippers have literally sucked for almost 25 straight years, both as a team and an organization. If you’re LeBron, is this really the train you want to hitch your wagon to?
The other supposed positive in the Clippers’ favor is that they will basically allow their free agent target to select his own coach. (Interim coach Kim Hughes will finish out the season but not be retained past then.) But this is only so helpful, since any coach considering going to the Clippers has to wrestle with the same “guilt by association” question I just asked.
In fact, this situation ultimately could hurt the Clippers. If Bron’s hypothetical coaching target turned down the opportunity because he didn’t want to leave wherever he was for the historical minefield of Clipperland, presumably Bron this would submarine the Clippers’ deal for LeBron as well.
My final thought on all this for tonight: remember, Kobe was “on the verge” of becoming a Clipper in 2004…until he decided not to risk tainting himself with the special virus that’s been flowing through the Clippers’ bloodstream for a quarter-century. Instead, he re-signed with the only team he’d ever played for, partially because the Lakers could offer him an extra year and an extra $30M that the Clippers couldn’t.
Have you heard those figures anywhere else before? I’ll save you the time of combing through this article and just pull out the following quote:
“It doesn’t take business acumen to understand the numbers of the NBA. On a maximum contract this summer, the Cavaliers can offer James an extra year and about $30 million more than any other team.”
There’s obviously one big difference between the Lakers of 2004 and the Cavs of 2010. The Lakers had won three titles during Kobe’s time there. As of now, we know how many the Cavs have won during LeBron’s career. If that number remains the same as it is today, then the Clippers could become much less of a dark horse for LeBron’s services. But until then, logic rules the day, and I suggest we all take heart that like bad teams, bad organizations will find a way to lose this one.
The above image is a Tweet from @MoGotti2 aka Mo Williams, with a very fair assessment of his 3-17 shooting performance, in a game that we could look at as a nightmare vision of the 2010-11 season, if the doomsday scenario takes place, i.e. LeBron walks.
Do you think Bron thought, “Huh, maybe this team isn’t a whole lot better than the Knicks are without me” while watching from the sidelines?
Overall, a similar story to last night - and, really, the entire regular season - when Andy, Delonte, and Moon are on the floor the Cavs cut deficits and increase leads. When they’re not, well, the opposite happens.
Minus that LeBron guy.
This was also, I thought, another example of Coldstone’s most visibly prominent deficiency as a head coach - hesitance to make a change. He stuck with Mo tonight when he probably shouldn’t … and maybe he’s thinking long term … but it was pretty obvious by the end of the 1st half that the Williams “twins” weren’t getting it done.
Does anyone else want to sign a petition for Delonte to become the starting point guard?
Spurs on Monday. Also known as “the game in which Coldstone sits LeBron as a gift to his mentor Coach Pop, who needs all the help he get.”
Don’t know about you, but I’m personally stunned that the Richard Jefferson trade hasn’t worked out for the Spurs.
Another win for the Cavs—the sixth straight—despite a very shaky first half. Another spectacular night for LeBron: 40 points on 16-27 FG, 13 reb, 6 ast, 2 blk, 3 stl, 4 turnovers, in 42 minutes.
But unfortunately, another discouraging performance from the Cavs’ starting back court.
Mo vs DET: 9 points on 3-9 FG, 2 reb, 4 ast, 1 blk, 0 stl, 2 turnovers in 33 min
Parker vs DET: 2 points on 1-6 FG, 0 reb, 3 ast, 0 blk, 0 stl, 1 turnover in 30 min
The team’s starting guard play has been a red flag all season. As we all know, if Mo isn’t hitting from deep, he’s basically a liability. Meanwhile, Parker is having his career-worst season in per-36 minute scoring (9.2 points) despite shooting a career-best 45.6% 3FG.
Here are their lines in the previous two games:
Mo vs. NJ: 16 points on 5-12 FG, 1 reb, 6 ast, 1 blk, 0 stl, 3 turnovers in 28 min
Parker vs. NJ: 8 points on 2-5 FG, 4 reb, 3 ast, 0 blk, 1 stl, 1 turnover in 30 min
Mo vs. NY: 7 points on 2-8 FG, 3 reb, 10 ast, 1 blk, 0 stl, 1 turnover in 25 min
Parker vs. NY: 8 points on 3-4 FG, 5 reb, 1 ast, 1 blk, 1 stl, 1 turnover in 27 min
Add all of that up, and you get the following:
Mo (last 3 gm total): 32 points on 10-29 FG, 6 reb, 20 ast, 3 blk, 0 stl, 6 TO in 86 min
Mo 3-Game Avg: 10.7 pts on 34.5%FG, 2 reb, 6.7 ast, 1 blk, 0 stl, 2 TO per 29 min
Mo 3-Game per 36: 13.3 pts on 34.5%FG, 2.5 reb, 8.3 ast, 2.5 TO
Mo Season per 36 (Actual): 16.7 pts on 43.6%FG, 3.1 reb, 5.3 ast, 2.7 TO
Parker (last 3 gm total): 18 points on 6-15 FG, 9 reb, 7 ast, 1 blk, 2 stl, 3 TO in 87 min
Parker 3-Game Avg: 6 points on 40%FG, 3 reb, 2.3 ast, 0.3 blk, 0.7 stl, 1 TO per 29 min
Parker 3-game per 36: 7.5 points on 40%FG, 3.7 reb, 2.9 ast, 1.2 TO
Parker Season per 36 (Actual): 9.2 points on 44.2% FG, 3.5 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.1 TO
In summary, this tells us that what you’re seeing right now from the starting Parker / Williams tandem is about what you should expect to see for the rest of the season and, more importantly, the playoffs. In fact, if you look at his overall game, it’s arguable that Mo has actually been playing better all-around over the course of the last 3 games than over the course of the season. Yes, his FG% and scoring are down, but his assists and rebounds have been WAY up with only a minimal rise in his TOs. That said, I suspect this is largely a result of the increased pace the Cavs played against the Knicks and Nets, so the whole thing may be a moot point.
The reality is that Delonte is still the team’s best guard by a wide berth, and unless he gets to play starter minutes (with a healthy dose of Jamario Moon off the bench), the Cavs are going to have to rely on their front line to carry them the rest of the way, just like tonight.
Bucks Saturday. Shaping up to be a tough road game, especially if JJ has another all-game Glitch like he did tonight. Expect him to be mauled regularly by Andrew Bogut for the first 6 minutes of the game, until Coldstone inserts Varejao to take his place.
Tonight is arguably one of my least favorite sports nights of the year. Why? Because 45 minutes before I started writing this post, NFL free agency began.
This is not in itself a bad thing. On one level, it’s an improvement. Instead of idle speculation, I get actual information from the NFL sources I follow about roster moves and trades. The Browns could, in theory, start to make some improvements. Most importantly to me, some 21 year-old’s 40 yard dash time at the combine will cease to qualify as news.
The problem for me is what it does to the Cavs.
The regular readers of this blog, I believe, fall into an extreme minority in the Cleveland sports community. Though there are a number of truths I could follow that sentence up with, the one I’m talking about tonight is this: I think we all care tremendously more about the Cavs than the Browns.
Unfortunately, this is not the norm. And it drives me insane.
I understand that for a long time, the Browns were very competitive, very exciting to watch, very much justified as THE team in Cleveland. They were a squad that people felt embodied the spirit of the city. They were full of charismatic stars and great players, like Jim Brown, Bernie Kosar, Clay Matthews, on and on. They were a team that people felt were almost perpetually on the verge of that elusive championship.
But let’s be honest, those days are long gone. Yet the city’s love affair with the Browns still trumps the others, regardless of who’s actually performing and who isn’t. I generally think that the Plain Dealer’s Bud Shaw is a hack, but he hit the nail on the head last spring when he wrote something to the effect of, “The Cavs are heading into the playoffs with the best record in the league, the Indians’ season opener is this coming week, so it’s only natural that most of the reader questions in my inbox are about Brady Quinn.”
The Cavs are on pace to again finish as the #1 seed in the entire league. The Browns haven’t made the playoffs since 2002.
The Cavs boast a guy who may go down as the greatest player in the history of pro basketball. He’s in the midst of having one of the most dominant statistical seasons ever. He may be a unanimous vote for MVP this season. Meanwhile, the Browns don’t even have a legitimate starting quarterback.
Since Dan Gilbert bought the team, the Cavs have built a world-class organization full of character guys committed to winning. They make lop-sidedly positive trades, and with the exception of Larry Hughes, when they decide to spare no expense they usually get a high return on investment. The Browns have been the sports world’s most absurd game of front office musical chairs since their return in 1999. They are likely paying as many people as much money to NOT work for them as they’re paying to the staff currently on the job. And again, they’ve been to the playoffs once in the past decade.
I could go on and on with this stuff. The point is, despite this huge gap in competitiveness and intrigue, the hibernation period is over again. The Browns will now automatically jump to the #1 story position on every Cleveland media outlet. There will be more discussion over the tender given to Matt Roth than to Andy Varejao’s qualifications as Sixth Man of the Year, more interest in pre-draft workouts for cornerbacks than in who the Cavs will be set to play in the second round of the playoffs, more attention paid to any progress in Josh Cribbs’s contract renegotiation than in the return of Z, a guy whose number will hang in the rafters of the Q. It’s as disgraceful as booing the Cavs for trouncing an opponent with efficient offense and stifling defense, but falling short of the Chalupa plateau. (Granted, this hasn’t been as much of a problem this season because of the Cavs’ increased offensive production, but the point stands.)
I don’t even expect this to change if the Cavs do in fact win the NBA title this season. In my most cynical moment, I imagine people emptying off the streets during the the victory parade to mourn upon hearing the news that the Browns cut Brady Quinn—or even worse, LeBron’s re-signing in Cleveland being overshadowed by the Browns’ late acquisition of Troy Smith.
The Cavs are in the midst of another very special season. In a nightmare scenario, this could be the last time we ever see LeBron in a Cleveland uniform. Even if it’s not, he’s now entering his prime with a solid (even excellent), likable supporting cast hungry to bring home the big prize. Let’s all enjoy this. And the next time someone you know brings up Mike Holmgren, for god’s sake, tell them to kill that noise until mid-summer. We’ve got winners in town.
