Since LeBron announced his decision to “take [his] talents to South Beach” last Thursday night, I’ve seen a couple of different people pose questions to NBA pundits about the Cavs’ fate for next year. Specifically, how many games should we anticipate they’ll be able to win without James in the line-up?
The consensus answer from those pundits seems to be “not many.” Big surprise. Specifically, 30 wins seems to be about the best case scenario the pundits believe Cavs fans can hope for.
Of course, the pundits who were asked this question weren’t people who I would expect are using advanced statistics in their projections. I, on the other hand, anticipate that the team will be better than most of the rest of the people in the country would think, because I know how well many of the players on the roster rate in metrics that the average fan (and average pundit) aren’t considering. For instance, when the idea of Toronto signing-and-trading Chris Bosh to the Cavs was being heavily discussed, our buddy Chad Ford (one half of T.I.T.) made the point that the Cavs could potentially use the deal to unload a bad contract like…Anderson Varejao’s. Whereas we here at Mesa have regarded Andy as the Cavs’ second-best player since about 2006.
But since “better than these other guys think” still isn’t a good answer to “How good do you think the 2010-11 Cavs will be?”, I decided I would use Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes (WP48) to build a rough model that would spit out some actual numbers.
Here are the parameters I set:
I can only use players who are actually under contract for next year
I’m excluding Delonte because Chris Grant has all but said that he will be cut or traded prior to his contract becoming guaranteed early next month
There is a total of 240 minutes per game to distribute among the roster, since 5 players have to be on the floor for 48 minutes (5 x 48 = 240)
The starting 5 will be Mo at 1, Parker at 2, Moon at 3, Jamison at 4, Varejao at 5
Each starter will average 36 minutes per game.
JJ will be the 6th man, and will average 20 minutes per game
Sebastian Telfair will be the “most likely to DNP” and will only average 4 minutes per game
All of the other subs on the roster will average 9 minutes per game
Each player will play all 82 games
If use each player’s WP48 from the 2009-10 season and the minutes-per-game assumptions above, we get the following projection.
Varejao = .179 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 11 wins
Mo = .136 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 8.4 wins
Moon = .131 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 games = 8.1 wins
Hickson = .123 WP48 x 20 mpg x 82 games = 4.2 wins
Gibson = .117 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.8 wins
Jamison = .115 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 games = 7.1 wins
Parker = .103 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 games = 6.3 wins
Powe = .097 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.5 wins
Green = .083 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.3 wins
Jawad = .069 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 games = 1.1 wins
Telfair = .020 WP48 x 4 mpg x 82 games = 0.1 wins
TOTAL PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 51 wins
Now, supposedly the WP48 statistic only accounts for 80% of wins. If we assume that to be true, then we should adjust this 51-win total by dropping it 20%.
TOTAL ADJUSTED PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 41 wins
The problem here is that it’s flawed to assume that these players are going to be able to play the same way without LeBron that they did with LeBron. In that sense, it’s misleading to use their 2009-10 WP48 stats in a projection. It’s likely more accurate to use their career WP48 stats.
Admittedly, this revised model would still be a very rough one, since there are some players—Andy, Jawad, Boobie, Hickson, and Danny Green—who have played with LeBron for their entire NBA careers. But it’s the best we can do right now.
When we plug career WP48 stats into the model, we get these numbers:
Varejao = .156 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 = 9.6 wins
Mo = .095 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 = 5.8 wins
Moon = .122 WP48 x 36mpg x 82 = 7.5 wins
Hickson = .116 WP48 x 20 mpg x 82 = 4.0 wins
Gibson = .107 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 = 1.6 wins
Jamison = .118 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 = 7.3 wins
Parker = .100 WP48 x 36 mpg x 82 = 6.2 wins
Powe = .183 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 = 2.8 wins
Green = .083 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 = 1.7 wins
Jawad = .068 WP48 x 9 mpg x 82 = 1.0 wins
Telfair = .013 WP48 x 4 mpg x 82 = 0.1 wins
TOTAL PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 48 wins
Again, if we drop this “best case” number by 20%, we get something likely much closer to reality.
TOTAL ADJUSTED PROJECTED WINS PRODUCED BY 2010-11 CAVS: 38 wins
In short, WP48 suggests that the pundits are, as usual, low-balling the Cavs. It’s possible that the team could still be competing for the final playoff spot in the East next season, even if they made absolutely no adjustments to their roster. Granted, this would take a remarkable level of health and consistency from all players involved, but it’s not out of the question.
However, we’re undoubtedly going to see changes to the roster in the coming weeks. My personal hope is that those changes are geared toward making the team better in the long run rather than the short. But as it stands now, we should feel comfortable that the Cavs are not going to be a 15-win team. Cold comfort if you consider where we thought the team was only a few months ago, but the first step towards improvement is realism. Hopefully the front office agrees.
The biggest fallout, it now seems, of the entire Summer of Money, may be the impact it has had on Chris Bosh’s ego.
Let’s be honest: Chris Bosh is not in Dwyane Wade or LeBron James’s league.
Here are the advanced stats:
Adjusted Plus Minus
Bosh: +6.97 James: +16.92 Wade: +20.07
Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes
Bosh: .225 James: .401 Wade: .291
PER
Bosh: 25.0 James: 31.1 Wade: 28.0
This looks even worse if we keep in mind that last year was, by most measures, Bosh’s best season in the NBA.
Which is the kind of thing that tends to happen in contract years in professional sports.
Somehow though, by the fact that James pulled Bosh into this whole “Sign for 3 years with a player option for the 4th” gambit, three summers ago, to get a new deal in front of the new CBA while creating a marketing extravaganza at the same time, Bosh has decided that he’s a superstar, so much so that he appears to be refusing to come to Cleveland in a sign and trade.
Why would Bosh do this?
Is it because he’d have to take less money? Nah. Is it because he wouldn’t have a chance o win a championship? Nah. Is it because he’s a bad fit alongside LeBron? Nah.
Then what is it?
Cleveland’s not a big enough market.
Bosh wants to play for a team in a bigger market because, he seems to believe, it will provide more endorsement opportunities. Having lived in New York and Los Angeles, I can tell you about the kinds of endorsement opportunities playing in those markets can provide…
Nobody Beats the Wiz (or similar local electronics store)
Car Dealership
Pizza Shop
And if you’re really f’ing lucky, a guest spot on NCIS, like Pau Gasol.
So Chris is either endlessly fascinated with piling up stupid endorsement deals, hocking pizza and cars, or he’s seriously misinformed. Mikhail Prokhorov apparently hinted at this misunderstanding in a private conference call, that was ostensibly leaked to ESPN in order to publicly gas the egos of LeBron and his inner circle.
What Bosh doesn’t seem to understand is that he is neither the player nor the personality that James and Wade are. Now I don’t think Wade has much charisma either, and he certainly has a terrible stylist, but his campaign with T-Mobile must be successful enough for them to continually renew it (although there’s probably also a reason that they pulled Charles Barkley in). Bosh though is far worse. And if you don’t believe me, read his tweets.
The stats and Bosh’s success with the Raptors solidify my point. He will not win championships “on his own.” Houston is an intriguing possibility, but I’m still not convinced Yao Ming will ever stay healthy or that Aaron Brooks is the creator that team needs on the perimeter. Further more, playing with James would let Bosh walk through endorsement doors that were already open. James and the Cavaliers are poking their nose into China with the help of Kenny Huang - with a championship, they get all the way in.
Even if Bosh doesn’t want to live in the city of Cleveland or its surrounding suburbs in Northeast Ohio - which, we all have our preferences, and I can (obviously) understand why someone might choose to live somewhere else, doesn’t this seem like something you get past for the sake of your career, especially when every other part of “the job” makes so much sense? Sure, Bosh may feel he has a similar opportunity in Miami, if Toronto decides draft picks and a trade exception are truly that valuable, but Miami’s roster is not Cleveland’s, and Wade is both older than James and the owner of a far worse injury history.
Ultimately, James is the better match for Bosh than Wade is. But Bosh won’t come to Cleveland because he believes he’s some kind of star, who needs to live amongst the glitz and glamor of a bigger market.
Okay, fair enough. We all believe certain things. And I will choose to believe this - Chris Bosh is in over his head, and the best thing he can ever do for Cleveland is bring his girlfriend (ex-girlfriend?) to the first game his new team plays against the Cavaliers. And have that chick chew LeBron out.
And now, in a near complete break from the fiasco that is the Summer of Money - well, at least as far as my BlackBerry battery is concerned - let’s talk about pace and winning championships.
During Friday’s press conference, Byron Scott - whose previously coached teams ranked 15, 28, 26, 23, 21, 28, 18, 11, 9, and 13 in pace - made a point of emphasizing his “Showtime Lakers” roots and his desire to implement a running offensive team.
This was widely seen as a direct pitch to LeBron James. “You can be Magic,” was what it sounded like to me. And while I haven’t always been enthralled by the idea of Scott becoming the Cavaliers head coach - his alleged under preparedness and inflexibility are not character traits worth gravitating towards - I must say that he was impressive in the presser.
Furthermore, I’ve long believed that the position where LeBron can best utilize his gifts is PG. There is always a lot of talk about how LBJ is a great finisher; personally, I think he’s more devastating as a passer surrounded by dunkers and long distance shooters. If Scott wants to push James to play more 1 then, I will be loudly rooting at his side.
Whether or not Scott actually institutes a faster paced offense than he did in New Orleans with Chris Paul remains to be seen. But the bigger question, really, is whether or not a faster pace is going to translate to more wins, especially in the playoffs.
During the press conference, Scott said something that perhaps hinted at James’s discontent in the 2010 series with the Celtics. He noted that running was particularly important in the playoffs because offense is tougher to execute, as your opponent knows exactly what you’re going to do.
The legitimacy of this statement can be debated (overall, offensive efficiency does not go down in the playoffs), but you can see where I’m going with this - LeBron may have believed that the Cavs should have ran more against the Celtics, to combat the Celtics stiff defense. If true, Scott was publicly agreeing with him.
So where have the last ten NBA champions ranked in terms of pace? In reverse order, starting with the 2010 Los Angeles Lakers…
14, 5, 19, 27, 12, 23, 24, 20, 6, 14
4/10 were in the 20’s 2/10 were in the top 10 (both Phil Jackson coaches Lakers teams) 4/10 were in the teens
Back in March, I wrote a piece about pace and its relationship with defensive efficiency. I only looked at a small sample, so the results were inconclusive, but none of the top 10 fastest teams of the ‘09-‘10 season were also in the top 10 on defense. That tiny bit of research led me to believe that playing at a faster pace could lead to bad habits on the defensive end.
If Scott does indeed decide to increase the pace of the Cavaliers, we shall see what sort of effect it has on the Cavaliers’ defense and, more importantly, their point differential. Teams have certainly won in the playoffs, recently at least, playing at a wide range of paces.
Plenty of scenarios have been bandied about. A super trio in Miami. A renewed legacy in Chicago. A date with the rapper and the Russian in New Jersey.
Now we get to see what actually transpires.
News earlier today that the Hawks were preparing to offer Joe Johnson a full max deal, threw the teams with cap space into a tailspin, most notably the Knicks. But this, I assume, is only a preview of what’s to come. That is, players deciding to sign wherever they can get the most money.
Which means that if anybody’s moving to a different team, it’s almost undoubtedly through a sign and trade. If true, this is not a positive revelation for Miami, which I have a hard time believing will be very good, even if they get two max players (Dwyane Wade and Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh, or Amar’e Stoudemire). As a result, Pat Riley really has all of his cards in one basket - getting LeBron, Bosh, and Wade.
The probability of that happening, in my opinion, is very small. And I also think it would be lousy for the players, the fans, and the league. Basketball is a competitive sport. Watching legitimate stars play together isn’t as enjoyable as watching them try to kill one another.
What I believe LeBron, Bosh, and Wade should be trying to do then, instead of joining the same team, is trying to figure out how to create as many fierce rivalries as possible.
This is why I wouldn’t even have been mad if LeBron had gone to a David Geffen-owned Los Angeles Clippers team, creating the ultimate in-city rivalry. I would have loved to watch LeBron and the Clippers try to take down Kobe and the Lakers, not only destroying their hopes for a 3-peat, but also destroying their dominance in one of the biggest bandwagon towns known to man.
It would’ve been interesting just to see how many people in LA immediately became Clippers fans.
LeBron to the Clips under Geffen was a fantastic idea by Maverick Carter, if we’re to believe the published reports. It’s the kind of big idea, big picture thinking the world needs more of.
And not just the world. Also, the cities of Cleveland and Akron.
Which is why, with the Clippers out of the running, LeBron needs to shift his focus. Forget Miami and the super trio. Forget the easy way out in Chicago. Forget New York City and the Knicks’ executives’ lies about marketing dollars making up for non-max contracts.
If Wade can try to recruit Bosh to Miami, why can’t LeBron try to recruit Bosh to Cleveland?
He can.
Especially if we’re willing to listen to what history tells us and acknowledge that no player - not LeBron, not Joe Johnson, not Bosh, not Wade, nobody - wants to take less money than a full, Bird Rights max contract will give them.
Not ever. Not now. Particularly when a new CBA is coming.
That means a sign and trade. That means all 30 teams - well, at least those who didn’t give up all of their assets trying to clear cap space - are in play.
That means the Cavaliers are in play.
It would take Anderson Varejao, JJ Hickson, Delonte West, Jamario Moon, and Danny Green to match salaries (unless Toronto wants Mo Williams or Antawn Jamison, in which case … thank you God). And losing Varejao would be a big time blow - he’d be the perfect complement to Bosh at the 5 - but in this case, with the immediate future of the franchise at stake, you do what you have to do.
Go get Bosh, Bron. Keep the power in your pocket. Bring the prestige to your hometown, where it may not be easy, but it does pay better than anywhere else.
Insightful - and comforting, if you’re a Cavs fan - look at Dan Gilbert and LeBron James from the perspective of Steve Greenberg, managing director of the investment firm Allen & Co.
This reminds of something Chris Broussard implied on an interview on ESPN. When discussing which team LeBron should sign with, too often we look at what’s there right now, without putting maximum emphasis on the notion that this is a 5 or 6 year partnership. I suspect the Cavs are very aware of this and will act accordingly in their presentation to the Chosen One.
