The Summer of Money - The Sign and Trade Part II
This is the second in a series of posts about the Cavaliers’ potential options were they to partake in a sign and trade with LeBron James. You can read the first part here.
Assuming the projected $56.1M cap sticks and using salary numbers from HoopData, we can talk about which players might come back to Cleveland in a hypothetical sign and trade arrangement. Remember, since the Cavs are over the salary cap, the salaries going out / coming in must match within 125% + $100K.
Before getting into this, I should say that if the Cavs tell James and his team that they’re open to a sign and trade, it opens the door for him to be dealt to any team in the NBA. For the sake of not letting things get out of control, however, I’ll stick to the teams with cap space for now. I’ll also assume that the Cavs wouldn’t be sending any other players out alongside James, although I’m willing to acknowledge that this could be rather unlikely.
Yes, I know this is cheating.
These proposed trades are based on the notion that LeBron’s salary next season, in a max deal, will be $16.6M (105% of his current salary - 30% of the cap would be $16.83M, but we’ll stick with $16.6M because the cap hasn’t officially been determined yet). This means that the salary totals involved in the trade would have to fall between $16.6M and $20.85M.
Washington Wizards: $23.4M in cap space
Now that the Wizards have won the draft lottery, their projected cap number has actually gone down $1.5M from what it would have been had the ping pong balls fallen true to the odds. The first pick in the draft costs $1.5M more than the fifth pick. As a side note, New Jersey’s projected cap number - as reported in part 1 - has now gone up by $900K, a result of the Nets coming up third in the lottery.
Washington is never mentioned as a possible destination for any free agents, particularly LeBron, so the likelihood of a sign and trade happening here is probably nil. I find this a little odd, since DC is a top 10 market (#9 to be exact), Ted Leonisis - a successful NHL owner is about to acquire the team - and a roster that now includes Gilbert Arenas and John Wall or Evan Turner. Andray Blatche, for lack of a better word, is a knucklehead, but showed some promise at the end of last season - and hey people used to say the same thing about Rajon Rondo. Washington also has the ability to go over the cap to resign the vastly underrated Mike Miller, who is also a friend of LeBron’s.
Having said that, I don’t expect LeBron to entertain the idea of playing for Washington. If he were to surprise us all, however, here’s what a sign and trade might look like:
Gilbert Arenas: $17.7M
As much as, I’m sure, Washington would love to make that trade, I’m pretty confident the Cavaliers would not. Can you imagine Dan Gilbert going to his corporate sponsors saying, “Guys, we just lost one of the greatest players to ever play this game … BUT we did get a pseudo-PG who is constantly injured and is just coming off of a gun charge!”
Yeah…
Sacramento Kings: $18.7M in cap space
For my money, Sacramento would be a fun place to watch LeBron play if he had to go somewhere else. It’s another smaller marker for one, and us smaller market people need to stick together in order to combat the sheer size and volume of the larger markets. Secondly, the Kings also have some interesting young players: Tyreke Evans, Carl Landry, Jason Thompson, Omri Casspi, and Donte Greene.
Much like Dwyane Wade and James, I’m not sure Evans and James could play together, but Landry would be a nice fit at the 4 with LeBron playing the 3 and Greene and Casspi are long, athletic shooters.
Because Sacramento is a relatively young team, they’d have to package a lot of players together to hit the maximum salary number - which would also gut the core - unless the Cavs were willing to take:
Andres Nocioni: $6.9M
Beno Udrih: $6.5M
Francisco Garcia: $5.5M
Since Nocioni has 2 years left on his deal, and Udrih and Garcia have 3 years, I highly doubt this could ever come close to happening. Packaging Caspi ($1.3M - expiring), Thompson ($2.2M), Nocioni and Udrih would also get you there, and the Kings could even throw in Landry ($3M - expiring), too. That would make the deal more enticing for the Cavaliers, and it would also allow the Kings to rid themselves of the contracts of Nocioni and Udrih. However, Sacramento would lose three cost effective players in the deal, as well.
And LeBron’s not going to leave Cleveland to go to a smaller market that may be on the verge of moving to another city.
Los Angeles Clippers: $18M in cap space
The idea of playing for a team that’s owned by Donald Sterling should terrify James. LeBron is a hyper aware individual, so chances are it does, which means LeBron to the Clippers is unlikely.
Too bad. Because if he does choose to leave Cleveland, I have little doubt the Cavs could, relatively speaking, fleece the Clippers. And, the perverse side of me that hopes to see LeBron fail if he goes elsewhere, sees a Sterling-James partnership as a disastrous earthquake waiting to happen. Step #1: Sterling gives James max control. Step #2: Powerful earthquake of self-interest drives Los Angeles into the Pacific Ocean.
Since the Clippers have two players - Baron Davis and Chris Kaman - with big contracts, it’d be easy for them to pull off a deal. Therefore the Cavs could send James to LA for:
Baron Davis: $13M
Eric Gordon: $3M
Or
Chris Kaman: $11M
Blake Griffin: $5.4M
Or even the best fit, Davis and Griffin - and hopefully the Clippers next 10 draft picks, since picks hold no cash value).
Houston Rockets: -$3.6M in cap space
That’s not a typo. The Rockets do no have cap space. And yes, I said I was going to keep this sign and trade discussion to only teams with cap space, even though a sign and trade opens up the possibility of James going to any one of the other 29 teams in the NBA. But just to make this post - which is filled with a bunch of unlikely hypotheticals already - just a little more interesting, I want to talk about the Houston Rockets.
Why?
Because the Rockets prepared for the Summer of Money by gathering assets so that they could engage another team with a sign and trade since, historically, players never leave the team that can give them the most money (unless you’re Shaquille O’Neal). And because if I’m LeBron James, and I want to be a billionaire, and I want to do that by conquering China, I have to at least consider playing alongside Yao Ming.
And there’s good basketball reasons to do it, too. Yao’s a good jump shooter out to 15 feet, a great free thrower, and a giant, all qualities that would combine well with LeBron’s game.
So what could Houston offer?
Trevor Ariza: $6.3M
Kevin Martin: $10.6M
Or swap out Jared Jeffries for Ariza, whose contract at $6.9M expires after the 2011 season. Houston could also use three of the players they have in the $2M range - Kyle Lowry, Aaron Brooks, Chuck Hayes, Jordan Hill, or David Andersen to replace Ariza / Jeffries. Luis Scola at a $4.1M qualifying offer could also be packaged with one of the $2M players to achieve the same goal.
Houston has a collection of picks too from the Knicks and Clippers, as well as a bunch of players overseas whom they hold the rights to.
And thus ends my survey of the sign and trade landscape … at least for now. You can see why such a deal seems unlikely: largely, the teams the Cavs would be trading with would have to give up some or much of the talent LeBron would seemingly be interested in playing with to pull it off.
In other words, I don’t expect a sign and trade to happen - but when other people in the media start talking about the possibility of it, at least you know that Mesa has kept you informed.
May 20, 2010
The Summer of Money - The Sign and Trade
The big buzz - amongst everyone who’s already determined LeBron James will leave Cleveland when he becomes a free agent on midnight of July 1st - is about the possibility of a sign and trade. While I think there is a significant chance James stays with the Cavaliers, I can’t fault people for wanting to talk about a sign and trade. It is at least progressive and forward thinking in the sense that it involves conversations about building for the future and maximizing assets in order to do so.
As we all know, after all, the Cavaliers have not won a title with LeBron in town.
Assuming the projected $56.1M cap sticks and using salary numbers from HoopData, we can talk about which players might come back to Cleveland in a hypothetical sign and trade arrangement. Remember, since the Cavs are over the salary cap, the salaries going out / coming in must match within 125% + $100K.
Before getting into this, I should say that if the Cavs tell James and his team that they’re open to a sign and trade, it opens the door for him to be dealt to any team in the NBA. For the sake of not letting things get out of control, however, I’ll stick to the teams with cap space for now. I’ll also assume that the Cavs wouldn’t be sending any other players out alongside James, although I’m willing to acknowledge that this could be rather unlikely.
Yes, I know this is cheating.
These proposed trades are based on the notion that LeBron’s salary next season, in a max deal, will be $16.6M (105% of his current salary - 30% of the cap would be $16.83M, but we’ll stick with $16.6M). This means that the salary totals involved in the trade would have to fall between $16.6M and $20.85M.
Chicago Bulls: $20.6M in cap space
Luol Deng: $11.3M
Kirk Hinrich: $9M
And wow that would be a terrible deal. I like Deng more than a lot of people I know, but he’s owed money through 2014 and Hinrich is owed another $8M in the 2011-12 season. Neither player comes anywhere close to filling the gap that would be left by James (in fairness, no two players probably will), and both have bad contracts.
The Bulls could throw Joakim Noah ($3.1M), Taj Gibson ($1.1M), and James Johnson ($1.7M) on top of Deng, but I doubt James goes to Chicago without Noah - unless he truly hates him - and I would consider Anderson Varejao Noah’s equal anyway. Taj Gibson is Glitch without the upside.
Miami Heat: $41.5 in cap space
A sign and trade with the Heat is literally impossible unless Miami were to sign a player(s) who is not currently under contract, or a three team deal - maybe with a franchise that is under the cap - could be swung.
In other words, next.
Side note: Remember when there was a debate between Michael Beasley and Derek Rose for the #1 pick? I believe that if Chicago hadn’t won the lottery, Beasley would’ve went first, and Miami may have had a stronger two man core of Dwayne Wade and Rose to add to this offseason. Of course, they still would have had a two man core…
I maintain that Pat Riley did a disservice to Wade, to Miami, and to the NBA by tanking for the past three seasons - no matter what happens this offseason - but that’s another story for another day.
New York Knicks: $34.5M in cap space
The Knicks are a semi-interesting case only because they open the door to one of the major conversations the Cavaliers front office will be having if it becomes clear James is steadfast on going to another team:
Is it better to get assets in a sign and trade or let James walk and focus on cap space in 2010 and/or 2011?
I bring this up because the Knicks would likely dangle Eddy Curry, who has one year left on his deal at $11.3M. The Knicks could also sign and trade David Lee, giving him to the Cavaliers along with Curry for a combined salary that would fall within the necessary limits.
In this scenario, the Cavs could be in a position to get a quality player in Lee and cap space in 2011, which could be hampered by a lockout and will be governed by a new collective bargaining agreement.
What no one knows is what free agency will look in 2011. Will it still be a relative gamble, where teams largely overpay for talent and run the risk of getting locked into bad contracts (Larry Hughes), or will it be restructured to be more favorable to the owners than to the players?
While all of the signs point to the latter, no one can be certain.
If the Cavaliers let (or force) LeBron to walk without a sign and trade, it will give them about $9.9M to play with in free agency this offseason. Right now I would be against the team signing anyone with that money because of the uncertainty surrounding the new CBA and the fact that star players come in the draft, not free agency. No one wants to hear this, but if LeBron leaves, the Cavs should be trying to get back into the lottery as soon as f’ing possible.
New Jersey Nets: $26.3M in cap space
I touched on this with the Bulls, but the Nets provide something else for James to consider - is he willing to give up maximum money (by this I mean a 6 year deal) and leave without a sign and trade so that the team he’s going to is able to keep all of its assets?
The numbers are close, for example, on the Nets giving the Cavaliers the following players for James:
Devin Harris: $9M
Yi Jianlian: $4M
Terence Williams: $2.2M
Courtney Lee: $1.4M
But then LeBron has to go to a New Jersey team that no longer has a point guard who was once an all star. And who knows what kinds of draft picks the Cavs might be able to force out of their trading partner, as well.
As many people have already written, we’re going to learn a lot about LeBron James in the window after July 1st.
I’ll be back on Monday to write about more potential sign and trade options with different teams.
March 12, 2010
Here’s An Idiotic Thing
Not much of note happening in the Cleveland sports world right now, so I figured I’d just briefly touch on the continued stupidity of the Clippers’ organization. Consider it a kind of postscript to my Cap Reality series entry on them.
Yesterday, the Clippers suddenly decided to fire Mike Dunleavy from his reduced role of GM. As many people have speculated, this is supposedly a move aimed at allowing Bron to not only choose his coach, but also choose his GM. This is the “Godfather” offer they’re willing to make.
As usual, the Clippers are way off base.
Here’s the thing: if you’re a player, I can understand the appeal of having the opportunity to choose your coach. Coaches have known styles, known personalities, known records. However, the idea that the player should then go out and pick his GM is absurd. How many current NBA players are keeping tabs on front office personnel around the league? By no means am I trying to take shots at LeBron’s intelligence, since by all accounts the guy’s mind for not just the game, but for business, is incredible. But there’s an enormous difference between someone saying “I’d love to play for Phil Jackson” versus “I’d love to play on a team built by Daryl Morey.”
Even if we were comparing apples to apples here, let’s be honest: the GM market is very different from the coaching market. In 30 seconds, I managed to think of three different coaches who have been to the Finals but are not currently employed by an NBA team (Jeff Van Gundy, Byron Scott, and Avery Johnson). Aside from Jerry West—who has already publicly stated that he would not take the Clippers GM job because of their proximity to the Lakers—how many known, quality NBA personnel czars are out there without a job? The answer is none, because when an owner finds one of those guys, they don’t fire him.
This means that there are really only two categories of people available to take over the Clippers GM job: unproven assistant GMs (say, the Cavs’ Lance Blanks), or former GMs fired for incompetence (say, Isiah Thomas). So if Donald Sterling is thinking that he’s opened up an opportunity for LeBron to choose a “trustworthy GM,” in the words of this article, then he’s in for another rude awakening. Ironically, Dunleavy was the last guy ignorant or arrogant enough to believe that he could play the dual role well enough to justify occupying both jobs, so it’s not even as if LeBron could choose one guy to cover both posts.
(Sidebar: let’s also dispel this ridiculous notion that Phil Jackson is going to go coach the Clippers. As I’ve stated before, any rumors to this effect are being floated out there by Jackson’s camp as a means of amping up pressure on the Lakers to redo his deal. This is especially apparent when you consider that Phil just massacred Donald Sterling in the press less than 60 days ago, and that a guy who expects to be the highest-paid coach in the NBA is never going to gel with an owner renowned for hoarding cash.)
Now, if you’re a Clippers fan, your reaction to all of this would be, “Well, the Clippers had to do this. It’s the best pitch they can make. No one else is going to offer this opportunity.” And that would be correct. But the reason that no one else is going to offer this opportunity is that every other franchise in the league doesn’t want to portray themselves as completely and utterly directionless while they’re trying to land a major free agent. One common advantage held by the Knicks, Nets, and Heat is that their top execs have all built teams that have at least made it to the Finals, if not won them. The Clippers, on the other hand, have a vacuum in their decision-maker’s spot. This is the reason that the Knicks went out and got Donnie Walsh prior to last season: they wanted to be able to tell their 2010 free agent targets that not only was there a long-term plan, but that plan was already in motion. By contrast, the Clippers have no plan, unless you consider, “Just let LeBron figure out the personnel stuff” as a legitimate plan. I, for one, don’t.
The ultimate irony in the Dunleavy firing is that, as spotty as his coaching record has been, Dunleavy’s GM moves have gotten fairly high marks from many analysts—at least for the past couple of seasons. Think about it: pundits regularly point to the roster in place as being the best reason for LeBron to consider the Clippers. It was through Dunleavy’s dealings at the trade deadline that the Clippers even managed to get to the verge of being able to sign a max free agent at all this summer. As thanks for a job well done, Sterling unceremoniously canned him. Not only was the press release itself unnecessarily pointed, but the notification process left a lot to be desired, too. (Details on both here.)
In short, this entire episode is just a microcosm of how jacked up the Clippers are and will continue to be until the team is sold. If LeBron doesn’t see that, then he’s not the man I’ve been led to believe he is.
-T
March 7, 2010
2010 Cap Reality Serie: LA Clippers
Continuing my series on the threats to the Cavs this upcoming off-season, tonight I want to sift through the wreckage that is the LA Clippers. I’m not going to spend any more time on the “big market” argument or the “attractive locale” argument because I’ve covered both in my analyses of the Knicks and Heat previously. So let’s keep moving.
Before the season began, I took a pretty in-depth look at the Clips’ roster and how it compared with the Cavs’. I just re-read it, and there are a couple of “I told you so” moments in it. First, the precaution that Blake Griffin could easily get knocked out of the ROY race by injury; second, that analysts should discard any reference to Al Thornton as a supporting cast member who might intrigue Bron, since the Clips would likely throw him overboard if they were going to go after Bron because of redundancy at the 3; third, a general scoff at the once-hyped notion that the Clippers would make the playoffs this year.
For reference, the Clippers are currently 25-38, 11.5 games out of the last playoff spot, 20.5 games back in their division. They’re on pace to win approximately 5 more games for a final record of 30-53.
On its own, that record puts the Clippers in a decent zone of appeal for free agents—just competitive enough that a major star could feel like his presence could catapult them into the playoffs. This is especially true when you consider that Bully won’t play a single game this season.
However, the troubling thing about the Clippers is that they have the stench of ages on them. The organization has been a laughingstock for decades. I pointed out in my earlier post that in their 25 seasons since moving to LA, the Clippers have lost 60 or more games 7 different times, 50 or more games 17 times. They won 23 games in 2007-8, 19 games in 2008-9, and are on pace for 30 in 2009-10.
This is a particularly interesting red flag because of another major difference between the Clippers and teams like the Nets, Knicks, and Heat. Unlike those other franchises, the Clippers’ front office has never intentionally emptied their roster of talent for the sake of accumulating cap space. Instead, they have a roster that’s one rookie away from the team that some people thought could be a playoff team. And they’re going to be lucky to win 30 games.
Here’s where the “Bully corollary” comes in. Clippers fans will say, “Yeah, well, they’re only going to win 30, but that’s because Griffin was injured for the whole season. Just wait til he’s healthy. He plays like a complete animal.” Cynic that I am, I would instead say, “Yeah, well, they’re only going to win 30 and their #1 overall pick already missed his entire rookie campaign with an injury. He plays like a complete animal. He may never be healthy.”
In fact, since 2008, Blake Griffin has suffered the following injuries:
Jan 2008: sprained MCL
March 2008: torn cartilage in knee. Required surgery.
Feb 2009: concussion.
Oct 2009: stress fracture in left knee. Injury did not heal properly and had to be operated on, forcing him out for the rest of what would’ve been his rookie season.
Personally, if I’m LeBron, I’d be very pessimistic about the number of games Griffin would be out on the floor with me in a Clipper uni.
For comparison’s sake, Bill Walton missed 203 of 410 possible games in his first 5 NBA seasons. The Clippers, ironically enough, signed him to a six-year deal afterwards. He played 14 games total in the first 3 years there, and only 169 of a possible 492 over the length of the contract. Meanwhile, we all know how dependable Greg Oden’s body has been for his first two seasons. Anyone who can be put on the same list as those two guys is not necessarily someone I’d be willing to jump franchises for.
Then, there’s the issue of ownership.
Before we even get into basketball operations, Donald Sterling’s primary claim to fame is having had to settle multiple housing discrimination cases for buildings he owns. This includes shelling out the largest apartment-based settlement in the history of the Department of Justice. For details on his alleged history of racist discrimination, I’d recommend this article.
Now, to the Clippers…Donald Sterling is the polar opposite of Dan Gilbert. He’s known as a tight-fisted, unreasonable wraith with a history of hiring awful front office personnel, then not firing them when they’ve undeniably demonstrated their incompetence. Primarily, he refuses to fire these people because he doesn’t ever want to pay money to someone who’s not actually working for him (which also makes him the polar opposite of Randy “Lost In Space” Lerner, but that’s another post). Because of all this, he’s also the guy principally responsible for this 2000 Sports Illustrated cover story.
SI was justified in their analysis, and nothing has changed since then. Starting with the 2000 season, the Clippers are a combined 316-485, including only one winning season and one playoff appearance (both in the 2005-6 season). Not exactly a drastic turn-around. Or any kind of turn-around.
In light of all of this, I believe it’s foolish to think about the Clippers’ roster in a vacuum. Yes, to the layman’s eye they have some talent.* Chris Kaman was an All-Star this year. Baron Davis has played well and is a recognizable name. Many people think highly of Eric Gordon. Blake Griffin was the #1 overall pick. DeAndre Jordan and Craig Smith have both been touted as promising young big men.
(*Note: advanced stats are not so kind to most of these players. For instance, in WP48, the Clippers had exactly 2 players who ranked above average at the halfway point of this season…and one of them is now playing in Portland.)
But even if someone wants to drink the proverbial Kool-Aid on these players, it’s ignorant to forget that the Clippers have literally sucked for almost 25 straight years, both as a team and an organization. If you’re LeBron, is this really the train you want to hitch your wagon to?
The other supposed positive in the Clippers’ favor is that they will basically allow their free agent target to select his own coach. (Interim coach Kim Hughes will finish out the season but not be retained past then.) But this is only so helpful, since any coach considering going to the Clippers has to wrestle with the same “guilt by association” question I just asked.
In fact, this situation ultimately could hurt the Clippers. If Bron’s hypothetical coaching target turned down the opportunity because he didn’t want to leave wherever he was for the historical minefield of Clipperland, presumably Bron this would submarine the Clippers’ deal for LeBron as well.
My final thought on all this for tonight: remember, Kobe was “on the verge” of becoming a Clipper in 2004…until he decided not to risk tainting himself with the special virus that’s been flowing through the Clippers’ bloodstream for a quarter-century. Instead, he re-signed with the only team he’d ever played for, partially because the Lakers could offer him an extra year and an extra $30M that the Clippers couldn’t.
Have you heard those figures anywhere else before? I’ll save you the time of combing through this article and just pull out the following quote:
“It doesn’t take business acumen to understand the numbers of the NBA. On a maximum contract this summer, the Cavaliers can offer James an extra year and about $30 million more than any other team.”
There’s obviously one big difference between the Lakers of 2004 and the Cavs of 2010. The Lakers had won three titles during Kobe’s time there. As of now, we know how many the Cavs have won during LeBron’s career. If that number remains the same as it is today, then the Clippers could become much less of a dark horse for LeBron’s services. But until then, logic rules the day, and I suggest we all take heart that like bad teams, bad organizations will find a way to lose this one.
-T
