Mesa Vs ESPN’s “Future Power Rankings”

Throughout this week, ESPN’s Chad Ford (of T.I.T. fame) and John Hollinger have been serially releasing their “future power rankings” of the 30 NBA teams. The concept is simple and interesting, if inexact: create an overall rating for every team’s cumulative prospects in the 2011-12, 2012-13, and 2013-14 seasons.
Ford and Hollinger attempt to do this by ranking each franchise in five categories—Players, Management, Money, Market, and Draft. “Players” means the players currently on the roster and under contract for any or all of those upcoming seasons; “Management” means the quality of the front office and its decision-making; “Money” means the owner’s willingness to spend; “Market” means the appeal of the city or region in which the franchise is located; and “Draft” means quantity and likely quality of picks in future drafts.
Each category is weighted differently, but together, they create a total possible point total of 1,000. Players account for 400 possible points, Management for 200, Money for 200, Market for 100, and Draft for 100.
Not surprisingly, the Cavs check in near the bottom of the list—specifically, at number 28, ahead of only Minnesota and Charlotte.
However, this is not because the Cavs, in Hollinger’s and Ford’s joint opinion, rank poorly in all categories. Instead, it’s because the categories in which they are strong are, in the system devised, two of the least valuable overall. For instance, Gilbert’s checkbook is good for 7th place in the league in “Money,” and the Cavs’ draft prospects place 2nd. Unfortunately, those two high ranks qualify the franchise for a grand total of only 219 points. In “Players” they rank 29th (good for a mere 45 points), “Management” they rank 26th (45 points), and in “Market” they rank 27th (22 points).
I don’t entirely disagree with some of the assessment. (In all likelihood, the parts contributed by Hollinger.) As I’ve written before, I find it entirely possible that Cleveland is, to most players, the least desirable location in the league. In that sense, ranking 27th in “Market” may be generous on Ford’s and Hollinger’s part.
That said, the inherent problem is that the entire list is based on perception—and much of the perception informing the analysis isn’t particularly in touch with reality. For instance, I think it’s ludicrous to state that the Cavs have the 5th worst front office in the NBA, especially considering the circumstances they’ve been forced to operate under for the past 3-4 years. (A point that I am currently considering for the epitaph on my tombstone.) I’m not even going to bother to link to my previous post as to why—I’ve had to do it too many times already. If you don’t know, turn off your Bill Simmons brainwashing and email me.
As usual, the roster is also being drastically underrated—a misrepresentation made even worse by the idea that the Cavs “lack trade assets.” I fully suspect Chad Ford is steering the boat on that particular argument, since he’s written it several times over the past year-plus. Somehow he seems to have missed the fact that the Cavs and Rockets were the only two teams who managed to put together sign-and-trade offers for “Lap Dog” Chris Bosh that the Raptors were interested in consummating. Not to mention that the Cavs are now flush with draft picks and a massive trade exception from the LeBron deal. But what am I thinking, other teams are never interested in picks or, essentially, the ability to trade away contracts without taking salary back. I’m being silly again.
By far my favorite swing-and-miss in the analysis, though, is the mythical power of the Dan Gilbert letter. Not coincidentally, it also comprises the overwhelming bulk of Ford’s and Hollinger’s written break-down of the numbers.
The argument in play is that Dan Gilbert’s 21-gun wake-up call to LeBron the night of “The Decision” has damaged the franchise’s rep with players as long as Gilbert owns the team. By blasting a guy who “made him hundreds of millions of dollars over the past several years,” the argument goes, Gilbert showed his true colors. No free agent will ever want to ball for the Cavs as long as they have such a fork-tongued tyrant at the helm. Hence, the Cavs’ future is so bleak.
There are just a few tiny problems with this argument.
First, as we all know, there weren’t any high profile free agents clamoring to come to Cleveland anyway. Most recently, the Cavs offered Matt Barnes a two-year contract worth ~$3.5MM per—more than double what he ultimately accepted to play for the Lakers ($1.7MM), and by far the biggest contract he’d ever been offered in his career. (The fictional one the Raptors offered doesn’t count.) Didn’t matter. He turned it down.
Did Barnes make that choice because he was afraid he’d be yelled at by Dan Gilbert? Uh, I doubt it. Dude’s got multiple neck tattoos. Considering he grew up in Sacramento and went to UCLA, living in LA and playing for a title might have had more to do with the choice.
Again, this is the entire reason Chris Grant and company are planning on rebuilding the team through trades and the draft. Hard to believe that the 5th worst front office in the league would be able to recognize its strengths and weaknesses and adjust its plan accordingly, but hey, I guess even a broken clock is right two minutes a day, right?
Second, all this talk about how terribly Gilbert treated LeBron after he chose to play elsewhere completely ignores how absurdly well he was treated while he was playing for Gilbert. Under his watch (and more importantly, on his dime), the Cavs:
- Completely renovated their practice facilities to the tune of tens of millions of dollars
- Moved Cleveland Clinic Courts to Independence to minimize the commute from LeBron’s house
- Routinely invited LeBron’s entourage to take the team charter to road games
- Created jobs within the organization for LeBron’s friends (see: Player Liaison Randy Mims)
- Mandated that film sessions be kept short to accommodate LeBron’s attention span
- Remade the roster according to LeBron’s urgings (see: Shaq, Jamison)
- Fired the coach and GM with whom LeBron was unsatisfied—without a guarantee he’d even return to the team if it happened
- Offered him the richest possible contract extensions the league would allow
And these are just some of the things that are either true or have been reported. I’m sure there were countless other concessions made in a desperate attempt to keep James happy for the past half-decade since Gilbert assumed ownership. Personally, I don’t care what the guy says about me when I embarrass him on national TV to go to another team; five years of the above kind of treatment sounds like a good deal to me.
Look, professional athlete is perhaps the only job in the world where your former boss’s opinion of you literally does not matter. Did LeBron need a letter of recommendation to get his new job with the Heat? Uh, no. Anywhere else, people in executive positions change jobs. Assuming you stay in the same or a similar industry, your former boss could somehow end up at a new company and once again have an effect on your future. Not in pro sports. It’s not as if Dan Gilbert is going to suddenly sell the Cavs, go buy the Spurs, and then freeze LeBron out of contract. Who the hell cares what Gilbert thinks of you after you vacate the team?
Third, perception is a shifty thing. Right now, few players reportedly want to play for the Cavs. My guess? The problem isn’t Gilbert; it’s that few if any players really believe the Cavs are going to be any good right now.
Think about it this way: if Donovan McNabb thought the Raiders were going to be a Super Bowl contender this year, would he have told the Eagles not to trade him there this past off-season because the team is owned by a tyrannical mummy? I highly doubt it. On a more close to home front, look at how Eric Mangini somehow transformed over the course of a season from being perceived by fans and players as a maniacal dictator (when the team was 1-11) to exactly the type of tough but admirable head coach the Browns have needed since their resurrection (when they ended the season on a 4-game winning streak, including a victory over the Steelers at Heinz Field).
Is anyone ever going to totally forget the Dan Gilbert letter? No, it’s going to be a part of Cleveland sports and NBA lore until an asteroid hits. But you can bet on the fact that when the team starts winning and Gilbert’s checkbook stays open, its perception in the basketball community is going to be completely different. And you can say the same thing about the franchise as a whole.
Trust me, I’ll be more than happy to point this out to Chad Ford in 2014 when the Cavs are surging and the Mesa team has courtside seats.
-T