January 13, 2010
Trade Report: Second Edition

As I did when I wrote Trade Report: Edition 1 on David West, I intend to give you a logical portrait of the current trade picture. I don’t have access, obviously, to the infamous “league sources,” nor will I ever try and tell you that I know more about basketball than Cavs executives … this is simply an accurate representation of the lay of the land.

Let’s start by concentrating on what all of the rumors and reporting about the Cavs revolve around - the team’s desire to get a so-called “Stretch 4.” The logic behind this pursuit, as it’s been described to us in the media, is that it’s the one piece the team is missing, in that they have no power forwards who can stretch the floor while Shaq is at the center position or guard tall, athletic 4’s on opposing teams like the Lakers (Lamar Odom) and the Magic (Rashard Lewis).

Some of this makes sense to me and some of it doesn’t. I agree that the Cavs don’t have a natural PF who is also a good jump shooter (Andy is at 29%, JJ is at 32%, and Powe was at 26% last year). I’m not sure I agree that Moon, Powe, and Andy can’t guard Odom or Lewis. When the Cavs played the Lakers on Christmas Day, Odom was a non-factor. Lewis was suspended when the Cavs beat Orlando by 9 points and Ryan Anderson, a comparably skilled player, was injured, so we’ll have to analyze the next game against the Magic to get a sense of whether or not last year’s playoff woes were a result of the Cavs not being able to guard Butterscotch one-on-one, not being able to handle the Hedo/Lewis combo, or simply not being able to stop Lewis.

The other thing is that the Cavs do have two Stretch 4’s on the roster - LeBron James and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. And since we saw Shaq-Z line-ups being effective against Orlando and Los Angeles already this year, there’s reason to believe these two options can certainly temper the issue.

Given all of that, as well as the fact that the Cavs won 66 games last year and are currently 30-10 and first in the Eastern Conference standings, I think it’s fair to ask whether or not they really need a Stretch 4 at all in order to win a championship. We’ve watched this team now for 40 games; they’re winning at a 75% clip and on pace for a 62 win season without taking into consideration strength of schedule. Their efficiency differential, as of Monday, was 8.1 (at the end of last year it was 8.9).

In other words, winning games in the regular season is not the Cavs problems - even with a subpar starting power forward by the name of Glitch, who averages 18.7 minutes per game.

Any trade that will have a disruptive impact on the current rotation then, has to be about potential playoff match-ups. This means Boston, Orlando, L.A., Denver, San Antonio, Dallas, and Atlanta … if we’re going to be generous in discussing possibly dangerous opponents.

A more precise portrait of how the Cavs match-up against all of these teams will be realized as the season progresses, but right now it’s hard to argue that they don’t look pretty good, aside from an opening day loss against the Celtics (before most of their players checked into a nursing home) and two “we’re kind of bored losses” against Dallas and Denver without Dirk and Melo/Lawson respectively.

My point, ultimately, is this: everyone talks about the Cavs making a deal to get a Stretch 4, how this move could put them over the top, but everyone also refuses to consider what that means to the players who are already here, who have helped the team to a winning percentage of .750 and road wins at Atlanta, L.A., and Orlando.

As the “Anyone But J.J.” series attests, we at JMID have seen enough of Glitch to know that he’s not a championship caliber PF at this stage of his career. Replacing him should be a priority then. But here’s the catch - Glitch is only playing 19 minutes a game. If the Cavs were to trade for Antawn Jamison, do you think he’s only going to play 19 minutes a game?

Probably not.

So whose minutes does Jamison take? Andy’s? Powe’s? Does Andy play more at the 5, where Jamison would then take minutes from Shaq and Z? How would that help against the Lakers, the Celtics, and the Magic?

Powe, of course, is a bit of an uncertainty because of his injury history, but isn’t the simplest fix to the J.J. “problem” (again, the Cavs are playing really well overall) to give his minutes to Leon?

If the Stretch 4 is still a necessity, than the Cavs can play LeBron there more and/or potentially find themselves a specialist - a Robert Horry-type - who isn’t going to demand big minutes and won’t completely re-arrange the rotation and steal playing time from other really valuable players.

Antawn Jamison is a big name. I get it. So is David West. That doesn’t mean they’re any better than less famous players the Cavs already have. Or better than Troy Murphy, who may emerge as a more viable option than he is now - in Wednesday’s podcast, Brian Windhorst said that the Pacers are asking for a package that no one in any league, real or fantasy, would ever agree to.

As my snap stat analysis, and more extensive David West breakdown showed, Jamison and West are only slightly above average. Jamison hasn’t shown that he can play defense, which eliminates one of the two reasons the Cavs are supposedly looking for a Stretch 4. And any deal that would give up Z without a reassurance he’ll be bought out and brought back is a mistake - this off-season was all about size; Ferry can’t, and won’t, kill that now.

For all of these reasons, right now I expect one of two things to happen. Either the Cavs make no deal at all, or they make a minor deal that involves parting ways with a player like Daniel Gibson to get a solid to very good role player. This, of course, is where things get interesting because we could also make a pretty good argument that the Cavs are less secure at the 2 and 1 positions than they are at the 4 … but I’ll save that for another post.

9:38pm  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/333641683/tredition2
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FILED UNDER: Cavs Trade David West Antawn Jamison Boobie Gibson JJ Hickson 
November 19, 2009
Trade Report: Edition 1

With the prospect of Stephen Jackson coming to Cleveland in the past, the date in which free agent acquisitions and draftees can be traded less than a month away, and Brian Windhorst speculating that David West could be on the Cavs radar, given the situation in New Orleans, what better time to write this season’s first edition of Trade Report.

It’s a moot point now, since Jackson’s already been dealt, but I did come around a little on the idea of the Cavs trading for him - but only under this assumption:

  • Delonte will not come back and contribute at a useful and consistent level.

And this condition:

  • The deal was Captain Jack for Delonte and Wally.

The Cavs would have gotten Jackson for nothing in this arrangement - if we’re really willing to assume Delonte will not be effective this season.

To include Z in any kind of deal this early in the season, when we have no idea who might be available by the trade deadline, doesn’t make sense, given that his contract is probably the Cavs biggest chip.

Here’s the breakdown of the Cavs assets:

  1. Three expiring contracts - Z, Shaq, and Leon Powe
  2. One nearly expiring contract - Delonte’s salary is only partially guaranteed next year.
  3. Wally’s World in a sign and trade.

There are other players who could be traded, obviously, but these are the Cavs financial assets. Which brings me to New Orleans, a team whose owner is hemorrhaging money, has just been diagnosed with cancer, and is 4-8 at the moment.

These are the tea leaves Windhorst was reading when he brought up West’s name.

When I look at the talent already on this Cavs team, I think, “If Danny Ferry is going to trade for someone, he better trade for someone who is ‘really f’ing good.’”

David West is an All-Star, so hypothetically, he should be “really f’ing good.” But we all know that the All-Star team is no way to accurately gauge a player’s value, especially since the entire starting five is made up of players who win a popularity contest.

Here are the particulars on 6’9” PF David West from last season:

Player Efficiency Rating: 18.9
Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: .105
Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus: 1.286

West then wasn’t in the top 20 in PER, was only the third most productive player on the Hornets, behind both Chris Paul (.451) and James Posey (.111), and was also third in RAPM, behind Paul (5.163) and Peja Stojakovic (2.979).

West shot 47.2% from the field last year and 71% of his shots were jump shots, so he can spread the floor - although not necessarily to the 3-point line, as he only averaged .3 attempts per game.

I’m far from convinced that the ability to spread the floor, by itself, is the be all end all when evaluating Power Forwards - there’s too much else that goes into the position. And, even if we consider the effect that spreading the floor has on offensive efficiency, evidence suggests the 3P shot is what matters - and West can’t do that. The notion of trading then for a slightly above average PF because he can spread the floor slightly is a bit dubious.

More importantly, who would you like to see David West take minutes away from? Varejao? Hickson? Leon Powe? Stop playing LeBron at the 4?

Presumably, the Cavs could include Powe in the deal, but he was at least as impressive as West was last year (PER: 17.2 | WP48: .187 | RAPM: 1.714). Varejao isn’t getting traded, and it seems silly to deal Hickson, a player LeBron likes who has also shown a ton of improvement in fits and starts.

The only likely scenario, really, would be to trade Z for West and then move Varejao to the back-up 5 position (he’s the Center of the future anyway). If Z keeps playing poorly - Holland assures me that his shooting and rebounding will get back to their norms before the season’s over…Z’s age gives me less faith - then maybe flipping him for West makes a little bit of sense. But otherwise, it’s hard to argue that David West is a clear upgrade over any of the PF’s the Cavs already have on their roster.

That, by the way, is my definition of “really f’ing good.”

I have my own developing thoughts about which positions the Cavs should/can upgrade at, but I think it’s too early to make any dramatic conclusions - just keep these two things in mind:

  • Any trade must be for a clear upgrade.
  • I’m paraphrasing, but I heard Warren Buffett say the other day that the short term is always uncertain - the long term is the only thing we can be sure of. And the long term trends say that this Cavs team should be very, very good just the way it is.

If you’ve got ideas for players you think the Cavs should focus on let us know, and we’ll try to analyze their effect on the team.

10:53pm  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/250557268/tredition1
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FILED UNDER: Cavs Trade JJ HIckson Anderson Varejao Leon Powe Delonte West Z David West Stephen Jackson