July 28, 2010
Goodbye Delonte West, You Were Never Even Allowed to Prove You Didn’t Sleep with Gloria James

Since we didn’t really address it when the trade to Minnesota happened Monday, I felt that I needed to jot down a belated goodbye note to Delonte.

In many ways, Delonte is an embodiment of what we here at Mesa keep writing about: sports and the athletes who play them are much more complex than most people understand. The man is struggling with a serious mental disorder—one for which there is no real “cure,” only imperfect treatments that can take a variety of twists and turns. Further, both the disorder and parts of the treatments directly conflict with the lifestyle and requirements of an NBA player. A consistent routine can’t realistically be established when you’re traveling for 41 or more games a year; the spotlight is no place for a person with these difficulties, especially when it comes with a battery of reporters; and even some of the medications in play have significant physical side effects, such as decreased energy levels, drowsiness, and the potential for weight gain.

Despite all that, it’s an incredible credit to Delonte that he was such an important part of the Cavs’ success between his acquisition at the trade deadline in 2007 and his unfortunate legal problems at the end of summer 2009. I for one will never forget the sight of Delonte (6’-4”, 180 lb) battling Hedo Turkoglu (6’-10”, 220 lb) all over the perimeter during the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals while LeBron was content to stay on Rafer Alston. The fact that he’s even managed to make it to the NBA at all is an incredible achievement, and part of me will always wonder how much different this past Cavs’ season could’ve been with West starting at 2 instead of Anthony Parker.

Despite all this, I think many NBA fans fail to see Delonte as anything more than a joke or a disappointment. That evaluation is way, way, way off. I think it’s largely a symptom of the way that professional athletes are viewed in our culture:  not as men and women with real lives and real problems, but as characters put on our TVs and blogs and newspapers for our entertainment—and worse, our judgment. For instance, many fans don’t want to acknowledge that a good NBA team can appear to “slack off” or have difficulty when playing a game on Christmas day because those players all have the same kind of holiday/family stress we all deal with; they just have to work throughout it. Many fans don’t want to hear excuses about injury or illness when a player turns in a sub-par performance, despite how willing those fans would be to use that same excuse if they had a bad day at their own job.

In short, too many fans demand that because our pro athletes are being paid super money, they should be superhuman. Delonte can, in many ways, be seen as the emblem of just how absurd that idea is. 

Since I keep getting asked by my friends about this preposterous affair Delonte is alleged to have had with LeBron’s mother, I feel like the best parting gift I can give to my man D-West is this: a complete breakdown of what utter crap that rumor was, via Deadspin. Beyond basketball, it’s a sobering lesson in how easy it can be to crucify someone via the internet based on nothing but smoke, mirrors, and a few well-placed emails.

So from all of us at Mesa, here’s to you, Red. I hope you can somehow manage to put the chaos of the past year behind you, emerge from your private struggles, and return to your 2008-9 form on the court. Honestly, even if it happens in Miami, I can’t be mad at you for it. Just do us all a favor and make LeBron actually guard someone.

-T

February 4, 2010
Do The Cavs Play Better Without Mo Williams?

Here’s a follow-up to my post on Monday about the value of Mo Williams. Consider this “Part II” in which we look at the impact Mo has had on the team since he got to Cleveland for the ‘08-‘09 season.

Today, in his podcast (which is excellent by the way), Windhorst said that any talk of the Cavs being better without Mo Williams is “nonsense.”

Theoretically, at least, this makes sense. No one who’s really thinking right would ever try and use these last seven games without Mo as total and complete evidence of the case against Mo, which is what Windhorst was implying. Additionally, it’s very easy to argue in support of Mo by simply looking at wins: in ‘07-‘08, without Mo, the Cavs won 45 games. In ‘08-‘09, with Mo, the Cavs won 66 games.

What I think people sometimes tend to forget, however, is that Mo wasn’t simply added to the same team we saw in ‘07-‘08. There were other new pieces as well, including most notably Delonte West and Ben Wallace. We also have to consider that Bron had a monster season by sight and by stats, and Andy Varejao was fully healthy again.

In other words, let’s not pretend like Mo Williams was responsible for the Cavs winning 21 more games by himself.

According to 82games.com, this season, so far, the Cavs are +4.9 points with Williams on the floor and +9.6 points with him off the floor.

Translation: the Cavs have played 4.7 points worse with Mo in the game in ‘09-‘10.

Last season, the Cavs were +9.9 with him on the court and +6.3 with him off. So, the team actually played 3.6 points better with Mo than without him.

As I’ve written in the past, raw +/- stats can be tricky to analyze because a lot of variables factor in. Adjusted +/- numbers are less tricky, but still have some amount of imprecision to them, but let’s look at those as well:

RAPM ‘08-‘09: .449
APM ‘09-‘10:  -11.95
2 Year APM: -3.70

We see then that overall, Mo seems to have had a negative impact on the number of points the Cavs score / give up since he’s been on the Cavs roster so far, based on adjustments for teammates and opponents.

If we look at more advanced stats, likes Wins Produced Per 48, we see a similar average to below average story:

WP48 in ‘08-‘09: .119 (average is .100)
WP48 in ‘09-‘10: .091

And nobody really wants to talk about last year’s playoffs do they? I know I don’t, so I’ll just link you to his playoff stats.

There are certainly times when Mo can win games because of his shooting efficiency, but there are also definitely times when he can lose games because of his shooting efficiency. In fact, if we’re going to talk at all about the improvements the Cavs made in their roster this year to deal with the issues they faced against Orlando in the Eastern Conference Finals, I think it’s critical to remember that if Mo had shot the ball even slightly better that series, the Cavs would have one.

My point is very similar to the one that Windhorst makes in his podcast, although we’re getting to it in separate ways. The other issue that the Cavs have to address is scoring. What we’ve seen from Shaq recently, makes you think he could be the guy … but there’s little question in my mind that a second reliable shooter / scorer would make everyone feel more comfortable in the playoffs.

To finish up, just remember that we’re not talking about Mo Williams versus Eric Snow, or Mo Williams versus Boobie Gibson. I’m not trying to argue that Mo doesn’t do more for this Cavaliers team than those two players, but whether or not he’s a true All-Star quality point guard - or better than Delonte West - is definitely up for debate.

Hopefully, this can start a conversation about how Mo fits with the Cavs, what he brings to the table, and what the team might look like without him, remembering, obviously, that Delonte is still here (the good Delonte, hopefully).

November 19, 2009
Trade Report: Edition 1

With the prospect of Stephen Jackson coming to Cleveland in the past, the date in which free agent acquisitions and draftees can be traded less than a month away, and Brian Windhorst speculating that David West could be on the Cavs radar, given the situation in New Orleans, what better time to write this season’s first edition of Trade Report.

It’s a moot point now, since Jackson’s already been dealt, but I did come around a little on the idea of the Cavs trading for him - but only under this assumption:

  • Delonte will not come back and contribute at a useful and consistent level.

And this condition:

  • The deal was Captain Jack for Delonte and Wally.

The Cavs would have gotten Jackson for nothing in this arrangement - if we’re really willing to assume Delonte will not be effective this season.

To include Z in any kind of deal this early in the season, when we have no idea who might be available by the trade deadline, doesn’t make sense, given that his contract is probably the Cavs biggest chip.

Here’s the breakdown of the Cavs assets:

  1. Three expiring contracts - Z, Shaq, and Leon Powe
  2. One nearly expiring contract - Delonte’s salary is only partially guaranteed next year.
  3. Wally’s World in a sign and trade.

There are other players who could be traded, obviously, but these are the Cavs financial assets. Which brings me to New Orleans, a team whose owner is hemorrhaging money, has just been diagnosed with cancer, and is 4-8 at the moment.

These are the tea leaves Windhorst was reading when he brought up West’s name.

When I look at the talent already on this Cavs team, I think, “If Danny Ferry is going to trade for someone, he better trade for someone who is ‘really f’ing good.’”

David West is an All-Star, so hypothetically, he should be “really f’ing good.” But we all know that the All-Star team is no way to accurately gauge a player’s value, especially since the entire starting five is made up of players who win a popularity contest.

Here are the particulars on 6’9” PF David West from last season:

Player Efficiency Rating: 18.9
Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: .105
Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus: 1.286

West then wasn’t in the top 20 in PER, was only the third most productive player on the Hornets, behind both Chris Paul (.451) and James Posey (.111), and was also third in RAPM, behind Paul (5.163) and Peja Stojakovic (2.979).

West shot 47.2% from the field last year and 71% of his shots were jump shots, so he can spread the floor - although not necessarily to the 3-point line, as he only averaged .3 attempts per game.

I’m far from convinced that the ability to spread the floor, by itself, is the be all end all when evaluating Power Forwards - there’s too much else that goes into the position. And, even if we consider the effect that spreading the floor has on offensive efficiency, evidence suggests the 3P shot is what matters - and West can’t do that. The notion of trading then for a slightly above average PF because he can spread the floor slightly is a bit dubious.

More importantly, who would you like to see David West take minutes away from? Varejao? Hickson? Leon Powe? Stop playing LeBron at the 4?

Presumably, the Cavs could include Powe in the deal, but he was at least as impressive as West was last year (PER: 17.2 | WP48: .187 | RAPM: 1.714). Varejao isn’t getting traded, and it seems silly to deal Hickson, a player LeBron likes who has also shown a ton of improvement in fits and starts.

The only likely scenario, really, would be to trade Z for West and then move Varejao to the back-up 5 position (he’s the Center of the future anyway). If Z keeps playing poorly - Holland assures me that his shooting and rebounding will get back to their norms before the season’s over…Z’s age gives me less faith - then maybe flipping him for West makes a little bit of sense. But otherwise, it’s hard to argue that David West is a clear upgrade over any of the PF’s the Cavs already have on their roster.

That, by the way, is my definition of “really f’ing good.”

I have my own developing thoughts about which positions the Cavs should/can upgrade at, but I think it’s too early to make any dramatic conclusions - just keep these two things in mind:

  • Any trade must be for a clear upgrade.
  • I’m paraphrasing, but I heard Warren Buffett say the other day that the short term is always uncertain - the long term is the only thing we can be sure of. And the long term trends say that this Cavs team should be very, very good just the way it is.

If you’ve got ideas for players you think the Cavs should focus on let us know, and we’ll try to analyze their effect on the team.

November 16, 2009
Windhorst On the Stephen Jackson Deal

Tremendous news to wake up to. Stephen Jackson will not be a Cleveland Cavalier. Thrilled about this for four reasons:

  1. Delonte is still on the team (for now).
  2. SJ has not been a good defender in Golden State, and the Cavs need help on the defensive end.
  3. SJ has not been efficient at offense in Golden State.
  4. Cleveland does not have to eat his horrible contract that extends after this season for 3 years at $27M.

Good omen for the rest of the week.