Adam Schefter is reporting that the Philadelphia Eagles have decided to franchise Mike Vick and trade Kevin Kolb.
More importantly to us, sources are listing the Browns as one of the teams potentially interested in trading for him.
You’re not going to find a bigger proponent than me of the notion that until your NFL team has a quarterback, they’re just not important. You’re also not going to find anyone more unsure than me about whether or not Colt McCoy is the real deal at the position.
Then why am I adamantly opposed to the possibility of Holmgren & Company dealing for Kolb? Two simple reasons.
First, by almost every statistical category I’ve checked, McCoy was better than Kolb last season. From our friends at Advanced NFL Stats:
2010 COLT McCOY vs. KEVIN KOLB
Games played: 8 vs. 7
Win Probability Added: -0.18 vs -1.02
Expected Points Added: 16.5 vs 4.4
Completion %: 60.8 vs 60.8
Pass Yards per Game: 197 vs 171
INT per Game: 1.125 vs 1.0
% of Pass Attempts Over 15 yards: 20.3 vs 19.6
Adjusted Yards Per Attempt: 4.2 vs 3.8
In summary: McCoy played one more game than Kolb last season, but apart from throwing .125 more interceptions per game, was as good or better in every way.
I would highlight Completion Percentage, Percentage of Pass Attempts over 15 yards, and Adjusted Yards per Attempt in this comparison, because they illustrate that McCoy and Kolb are both West Coast style quarterbacks. In other words, both are equally well-suited toward the type of O that Pat Shurmur is going to run.
Add to the above that we were bombarded with report after report about McCoy’s leadership ability and presence in the huddle as a rookie, and I just don’t see a logical argument for the idea that Kolb is a superior quarterback.
This leads us to the second reason that I’m against the idea of a trade: compensation. If memory serves, the Eagles are supposedly asking for multiple picks, including at least one first rounder, for Kolb. The Browns need talent all over the field, with the possible exception of RB and the center to left side of the O line. Given that reality, shipping off multiple picks in order to acquire a quarterback who is not markedly better than your incumbent seems like about as good an idea as wearing capri pants to a UAW bar.
So while I’m not yet sold on McCoy, I hope the Browns brain / mustache trust recognizes that they need a talented, deep draft class more than they need another unproven quarterback.
The link jumps to an excerpt from a book called Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won, by Tobias J. Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim. The book itself is billed as “Freakonomics for sports.” I just read another excerpt on a different topic in the new issue of Sports Illustrated last night have been really impressed with it so far.
The excerpt in question here is titled “The Curse of the No. 1 Draft Pick.” In it, Moskowitz and Wertheim provide data to support the notion that the best possible move for any NFL team picking in the top 10 is for them to trade down. This seemed like a relevant topic to consider today, as the conference championship match-ups were set while the Browns were busy trying to put together another new coaching staff.
The two strongest parts of Moskowitz’s and Wertheim’s argument are that evidence shows teams wanting to move up pay entirely too highly for the right to do so (in both compensatory picks and salary for their targeted player), and that in each draft class there is only a marginal difference in value between the top 4 players at any given position. In fact, when it’s all said and done, they argue that the first pick in the 2nd round carries more value than the 1st overall pick.
The ideas themselves aren’t necessarily new, but I applaud Moskowitz and Wertheim for using data to make the case. Admittedly, their argument will lose a little of its strength next season—whenever “next season” begins—because a new CBA is almost guaranteed to include a rookie wage scale that reduces the discrepancy between salaries for top picks versus lower picks.
Still, with the Browns holding the sixth pick and fans clamoring for a big name college player to start solving their problems, this study serves as more evidence that the best move for the health of the franchise is to pull a Belichick: Take advantage of an overzealous (probably QB-needy) team to stockpile picks and players, load up with talent at a higher rate than everyone else, and start blowing the doors off over the course of a few years.
You could say that this strategy didn’t work out so well for Belichick today. But keep in mind that the Patriots—who went 14-2 this year—have 3 of the top 34 picks in the next draft because of the strategy Moskowitz and Wertheim suggest as the norm. They can’t win every year, but they are going to continue to be really good for a really long time. That sustainable success is exactly what the Browns need to become relevant again. We’ll find out whether or not they recognize it.
One reason I think they very well may: the other team cited as the greatest champion of this strategy is Andy Reid’s Eagles, AKA Tom Heckert’s and Pat Shurmur’s Eagles. Let’s hope it all stays in the family tree.
Over the course of the past 10 days, Mike and I have made various allusions to what may be a semi-controversial opinion regarding the Cavs.
My take on the team is this: I have no interest whatsoever in mediocrity, the 8th playoff spot, or band-aid trades. The concepts of saving face and ‘proving the doubters wrong’ are irrelevant to me. I don’t give a shit about Dan Gilbert’s psychological need to win a championship for the Cavs before the Heat can get their first.
I want the Cavs to keep losing.
Look, I love sports. I love competition. On a game-to-game basis, the 2010-11 Cavs can be entertaining and put up a good fight, as with Chicago earlier this week. Some times, they may even win.
But most of the time, they’re going to lose and lose BIG.
In the grand scheme of things, sports are an all-or-nothing pursuit. You’re either competing for a championship, or you’re wasting your time.
As currently constructed, the Cavs are nowhere near a championship. There’s no one or two player combination they can realistically trade for that will catapult this roster back into title contention. Despite some individual talent, the team as a unit is a mess.
Instead of trying to do something like trade for Andre Iguodala (as I’ve seen rumored lately), the team needs to take the long view. Clear cap space, stockpile draft picks, make smart trades that maintain financial flexibility—then, most importantly, get lucky in the lottery and hit the pick when they get it.
The positive is that the Cavs are already on their way to doing some of these things. They have an extra 2nd round pick from Minnesota that Chris Grant acquired in the Ramon Sessions-DWest trade; they have multiple first-rounders coming from Miami via the LeBron sign-and-trade. The highest paid Cavs should have at least some attraction in the open market, making their money relatively easy to clear.
But best of all, the Cavs are streaking toward the lottery.
By no means am I condoning tanking. Nor am I signing up for a half-decade or more of consistently bad or average teams. This is not about trying to place some kind of bizarre voodoo hex on the franchise for what happened with LeBron, or wishing them ill just for spite.
Instead, it’s because I unabashedly love the franchise.
It’s tough love, really. I would rather the team suck hard (pause) for 2-3 years and build up a base of talented young players for long-term success than pretend that the roster has almost enough to win a title and make cap-killing trades that do nothing more than guarantee a first-round playoff exit.
In short, the Cavs have a real opportunity to build something. But in order to build it, they first have to acknowledge that the faulty structure left standing now needs to be completely torn down. I would compare the process to getting braces: yes, it’s going to be painful and ugly for 2-3 years, but as soon as it’s over the long-term benefits are immeasurable.
But in order to get to that point, Gilbert and the front office need to look their busted grill in the mirror and accept that some extreme orthodonture is needed. My fear is that at least the former party hasn’t done so yet. That’s the true danger here, because there is nothing worse than trying to remodel that’s structurally unsustainable.
So as a die-hard Cavs fan, I implore Dan Gilbert and Chris Grant: take the bitter pill now. Seriously, I get it. I can wait a few years if there are signs that the organization is moving in the right direction. But what I will not forgive you for is panicking now and dooming the team to 8-10 years of mediocrity. Rock bottom is a much better place to be than hanging onto a ledge for the vultures to come.
It wasn’t until a conversation I had with Mike on Tuesday that we both realized just how pathetic the Browns’ 2009 draft has turned out to be.
Flush with picks and in full rebuilding mode, the Browns went into the draft that year thinking it could be the turning point for the franchise. Use those picks wisely, and the team would take a giant step toward clawing its way out of its own grave. Blow the draft, and sentence the franchise to not just one more year of garbage, but potentially several.
The stakes got even higher when the Browns turned down an opportunity at a potential franchise quarterback—something they frankly have not had since Bernie Kosar—by flipping the fifth pick (AKA Mark Sanchez) to the Jets, then trading down twice more in the first round to stockpile more draft choices.
At the time, we here at Mesa urged everyone not to jump to conclusions about the quality of the draft. I even went so far as to write a post after the Braylon Edwards trade to defend Mangini’s draft record with the Jets and suggest that his 2009 Browns draft had a decent chance of success.
A year later, I can say this unequivocally: the Kokgini regime crapped the bed to a biohazard level.
Here’s the list of the the Browns’ 2009 draft choices, along with their current status:
1st Round - #21 overall - Alex Mack, C
Mack is the lone indisputable bright spot of the draft: a consistent (and some have argued, potentially Pro-Bowl-caliber) starting Center. And yet even his acquisition is tainted by the fact that the rest of what the Browns got in exchange for the 5th pick was worthless. (More on this later.)
2nd Round - #36 overall - Brian Robiskie, WR
To date, Robiskie has been active for a grand total of 13 games. In that time he has racked up 9 catches for 124 yards. Only 35 players were taken ahead of him.
2nd Round - #50 overall - Mohammed Massaquoi, WR
In comparison to Robiskie, Massaquoi looks like Jerry Rice. Unfortunately, in comparison to practically every other #1 receiver in the league, Massaquoi looks like Brian Robiskie. Currently the Browns first option at wide-out, Massaquoi has 37 catches for 679 yards and 4 TDs in 18 career games. Not awful numbers, but it seems like a stretch to say that the Browns couldn’t have gotten someone to make more of an impact than this with the 50th overall pick of a supposedly loaded draft.
2nd Round - #52 overall - David Veikune, DE
After a career as a DE at Hawaii, Mangini drafted Veikune to convert him into a linebacker. He played in 10 games in 2009 and, for a time, was so bad that he wasn’t even getting time in practice. Cut during training camp this year. May have set the new standard for why it’s blatant idiocy to draft a “project” in round 2.
4th Round - #104 overall - Kaluka Maiava, LB
It’s entirely possible that Maiava is the 3rd best player the Browns got out of this draft. The problem? He plays almost entirely on special teams and is now out for the rest of the 2010 season.
6th Round - #177 overall - Don Carey, CB
Carey didn’t even make it to September of his rookie year on the Browns’ roster. He was waived by the team on August 6, 2009, then picked up by Jacksonville, who placed him on Injured Reserve less than a month later. He now appears to be out of the league.
6th Round - #191 overall - Coye Francies, CB
Francies’s biggest impact was the flurry of errant punches he threw in the locker room last fall after being pranked by Brandon McDonald. He managed to play in 6 games for the Browns in 2009 and was cut in the final days of 2010 training camp. He now plays corner for the Las Vegas Locomotives in the UFL.
6th Round - #195 overall - James Davis, RB
Davis earns the distinction of being one of the five 2009 draft picks still on the current Browns roster. As we all know, he missed the entire 2009 campaign due to the ever-mysterious “opportunity session” injury. He may have a chance to play more this season…but considering that in two 2010 games, he’s carried 4 times for 9 yards, I wouldn’t bet my life on an offensive explosion, unless I was looking for a way out and my friends and relatives had already removed all my shoelaces, razor blades, and pills.
In addition to the actual picks, the Browns also managed to snag the following gems via draft day trade:
Kenyon Coleman, DE
Coleman is still playing. He has 9 tackles and 1 assist so far in 2010. He played 13 games in 2009 before suffering a serious neck injury that threatened to end his career.
Bret Ratliff, QB
Found God in between the 2009 & 2010 seasons. Lost his roster spot in September to Colt McCoy. (Sidebar: going back through this draft has pissed me off enough that I’m now instituting my “Eldrick Woods” policy for McCoy. From here on out, I am referring to the kid as “Daniel” until he can prove he’s a worthwhile QB.)
Abram Elam, S
Another of the veteran players Mangini brought in to help institute his system and school the youth, Elam is easily the most serviceable player acquired in the trade for Mark Sanchez. It’s when I can offer such high praise as this that I know the KokGini regime really knocked the deal for the fifth pick out of the park. Jesus, these picks make me want to curl up into a ball like an armadillo.
2009 Draft Summary:
8 players drafted. 3 cut before week 1 of the 2010 season (Veikune, Carey, Francies). 1 on IR (Maiava). 2 who might as well be gone based on performance to date (Robiskie, Davis).
3 players acquired via trade. 1 cut before week 1 of the 2010 season (Ratliff). The other two contributing as veterans but not exactly turning the team into a contender.
That, ladies and gentlemen, is your 2009 Cleveland Browns draft class.
It’s not the source of every problem the team has right now, but it certainly suggests that to some extent Mangini has no one to blame but himself. Whether or not he’ll see it this way when he’s polishing up his resume this winter is another question entirely.
Despite quarterback questions once again swarming over the team like buzzards over a battlefield, it was a year and a half ago that the Browns vacated the fifth pick in the draft and with it, the opportunity to pick USC star Mark Sanchez. Instead, the team moved down two more times in the first round, until they used the 21st pick to select Cal’s Alex Mack at #21 overall.
At the time, I was more than a little disappointed by the choice. It’s nearly impossible to win consistently in the NFL without a legit franchise quarterback, and for the Browns to have given up the potential opportunity at one because they had two existing-but-highly-suspect options each being paid a cargo container full of money already…well, it didn’t seem to me like a smart decision. I’m as sensitive to salary concerns as anyone, but at some point, you can’t keep passing up talent because you’re scared of another digit on the contract figure.
However, with the start of the 2010 season now less than a week away, I’m beginning to feel pretty safe in saying that Mangini made the right move.
If you have ESPN Insider, stat-head KC Joyner wrote a long analytical piece about what Sanchez’s struggles mean for the Jets as a team. You can read it here. The gist of Joyner’s argument, though, is that even teams with top five defenses (in terms of points allowed) have a significantly lower chance of making the playoffs, earning a trip to the Super Bowl, and winning it once there if their quarterback is ranked 20th or lower in terms of relative QB rating. In fact, that combination of offense and defense only gets a team to the post-season 62.9% of the time.
There’s an important distinction here. Joyner uses what I’m calling relative QB rating rather than absolute QB rating. In other words, he’s rating the QB’s passer rating against the other starters in the league to see where he falls compared to his competitors that season.
The result? Last year, Sanchez finished the season with a 63.0 passer rating. In 1976, that would’ve put him at #15 in the league.
In 2009, it dropped him to #28.
The usual caveat: one season is a weak sample size. But in his first year, Sanchez also threw 20 interceptions and fumbled ten times, including three lost fumbles. His INT% was 5.5. For comparison, Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre tied for lowest INT% last season with 1.3. This means Sanchez was about 4.25x as likely to throw a pick than either of those two. Or, another way of looking at it: Sanchez threw an interception more often than once every 20 pass attempts.
Not coincidentally, Sanchez only crested 20 pass attempts in three games post-Thanksgiving last year. Yes, the Jets won 6 of their last 8, but the quarterback at the helm of those wins looks a lot more like the proverbial “game manager” than a blue-chip stud ready to put the offensive on his back.
ESPN’s fantasy football guru Matthew Berry also points out a few facts about the Jets’ run game that speak volumes about Sanchez:
1) The Jets led the league in rush attempts last season with 607.
2) Only three other teams in the league rushed more than 500 times, and second place capped out at 525. Another way of thinking about: it’s as if the Jets’ backfield played 2 to 3 run-heavy games more than every other team in the league.
3) Only three teams in the league had fewer red zone passing attempts than the Jets.
However, the exclamation point on the argument is the current season of HBO’s “Hard Knocks.”
In the event that you’re not familiar with the show, “Hard Knocks” is an annual mini-series chronicling one NFL team’s preseason, from the opening of training camp through final roster cuts. Each season has focused on a different team. This season, of course, is all about the J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets.
With one episode left to go in this season, I have now seen the following:
1) Mark Sanchez consistently wearing a Taco Bell hat throughout training camp
2) Mark Sanchez arguing with a Pizza Hut receptionist over the fact that extra ranch sauce costs 75 cents per container
3) Mark Sanchez forgetting his playbook for a quarterbacks meeting, then retaliating against Brian Schottenheimer (who justifiably bagged on him for the mental lapse) by making Schottenheimer’s desktop background an image of a unicorn
4) Mark Sanchez sneaking into Brian Schottenheimer’s office and drawing mustaches on all of his pictures of his kids
5) Mark Sanchez eating a cheeseburger during warm-ups before the team’s scrimmage at Hofstra
6) Rex Ryan chewing out the entire team for a complete lack of leadership from the locker room, particularly on the offensive side of the ball
This seems like an appropriate time to mention that the Jets are paying Sanchez $44.5MM, with $28.5MM guaranteed through 2013. Does it seem to you like they’re getting their money’s worth?
Alex Mack, on the other hand, has been slowly gaining buzz among football analysts as a potential Pro Bowl-caliber center. Most recently, ESPN’s Jeffri Chadiha included Mack on his top ten list of young stars who “will soon prove vital to their team’s success.” I don’t have any statistics to back this analysis up. But Chadiha does point out that Mack is facing two of the best 3-4 nose tackles in the league—Baltimore’s Haloti Ngata and Pittsburgh’s Casey Hampton—twice each per season. Holding his ground against those players means a lot more than if he was playing in, say, the AFC West.
Ironically, the Jets’ current strengths support the argument that Mack at #21 was a wiser selection than Sanchez at #5. Behind center Nick Mangold, widely regarded as the best in the league, and star left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson, the Jets’ offensive line is the engine that makes their running game the beast it’s become. With Mack and Joe Thomas anchoring the Browns’ line and a minor stockpile of potential talent in the backfield, the team could be set up to take a major step forward this season—at least on the offensive side of the ball—even if Jake Delhomme goes south. Which is exactly how Mangini drew it up and talked about it a year ago.
Whether or not it works out that way remains to be seen. And of course, Sanchez could turn his play around and become a juggernaut this season or next. But based on what I’ve seen from him so far, I feel considerably more comfortable knowing that the Browns haven’t sunk at least $28MM into a would-be star who may turn out to be nothing more than a game manager.
