September 15, 2010
I Love Endless Carmelo Reports

Here’s the latest on Carmelo Anthony, who is being used by everyone in the world (i.e. the media and the business of basketball) to fill the void - is there actually a void? - created by the end of the Summer of Money, the Summer of LeBron, the Summer of Confusion, etc. etc. 

This article is beginning to suggest that my envy of the Denver Nuggets’ position has some real merit to it, as players like Evan Turner and Andre Iguodala would be fantastic gets for Melo, especially E.T. If he lives up to his potential, he’s a tremendous value on a rookie contract. 

Now while I am generally a fan of Ken Berg’s, I have to take umbrage, of course - who would I be if I wasn’t talking shit? - with his statement that there is a “considerable drop off” between Anthony and Iguodala.

I disagree wholeheartedly with this statement. Iguodala is a better defender, a better defensive rebounder, and a more efficient scorer than Anthony. Carmelo can shoot the 3 more effectively, and he’s played more playoff games and won a national championship at Syracuse, the two biggest factors in why Anthony is perceived to be a “great” player. These latter two “qualities” obviously aren’t terribly relevant in the overall scheme of things. 

Ok, and because you knew I had to do it, here is the advanced stats breakdown: 

APM: AI9 (+4.66) CA (+4.20)
PER: AI9 (17.75) CA (22.95)
WP48: AI9 (.218) CA (.109) 
WARP: AI9 (9.4) CA (9.5) 

So, at the very least, I think it’s fair to say that the drop off is debatable. Not sure why Iguodala is always being undervalued by reporters - other than the fact that Philly hasn’t been very good for a while - but he certainly deserves better. 

May 27, 2010
Here’s the Question…

If Philly is indeed dumb enough to shop the #2 pick in the draft, but the only way to get it is to absorb Elton Brand’s contract…what do you do, hotshot?

Dad, Mike, and I exchanged several emails about this topic earlier today. In our defense, it’s not entirely a hypothetical, as evidenced by this post on ESPN’s Rumor Central:

Pistons president of basketball operations Joe Dumars spoke to the Detroit media Tuesday about a bunch of topics including making the team tough again. Terry Foster of The Detroit News has a trade in mind that could achieve Dumars’ wish, but it would require him to make a daring move.

Foster writes: “The 76ers are willing to unload the No. 2 pick in the draft along with 6-foot-9 power forward bust Elton Brand. … Brand could be what the doctor ordered for the Pistons. But Brand will make $15.6 million next season, $17.1 the following year and $18.2 million in 2013. That’s a lot of cash, but it would be a bold and daring move. And here’s how: Dumars should offer the 76ers the No. 7 pick in the draft, Richard Hamilton and Jason Maxiell for the No. 2 pick and Brand.”

Obviously, there’s no mention of the Cavs in either of those two paragraphs. But the implication seems to be that Philly’s top priority is getting out from under the massive financial boulder that is the next 3 years of Brand’s contract—even if that means giving up a potential franchise player in Turner (or DeMarcus Cousins, or Derrick Favors).

If the Cavs were to attempt to chase a similar deal, the key components would most likely be Antawn Jamison + Delonte for Brand and the #2 pick. Since both the Cavs and Sixers are considered over the cap for next season already, trade regulations would allow this exact deal to take place with no further players or cash changing hands. (For any budding capologists out there, the reason is that the total combined 2010-11 salary for Jamison ($13.4MM) and Delonte ($4.5MM, but only 500K guaranteed) is less than 125% + 100K of Brand’s 2010-11 salary of $15.6MM. As long as that’s the case with two teams over the cap, everything is golden.)

In theory, Jamison’s contract would actually be better for the Sixers in the long term than Rip Hamilton’s. Jamison has $28MM total remaining on his current contract, but the deal expires at the end of the 2011-12 season.  Hamilton, on the other hand, has $37.5MM total remaining, and the deal doesn’t expire until the end of the 2012-2013 season.

Further, if Philly’s main concern is the cap rather than talent, Delonte can be instantly cut for a savings of $4M and no salary obligation for future seasons. Maxiell, on the other hand, is owed $5M per year for the next three seasons.

In sum, the Cavs’ version of this deal would save the Sixers about $24M total ($9.5M on Hamilton + $14.5MM Maxiell) in comparison to the rumored Pistons’ version of the deal. For a cash-strapped franchise looking to build around their young talent, that figure is nothing to take lightly.

Now, am I entirely convinced that this is a viable option for the Cavs? Not really. The big advantage that the Pistons have at this hypothetical bargaining table is the #7 pick. Though it’s still highly questionable in my mind, the Sixers’ choosing to move down 5 spots for the opportunity to unload Brand isn’t a totally indefensible decision. However, that deal gets decidedly dicier if instead of moving to #7, they move out of the first round of the draft completely by trading with the Cavs (assuming Ferry couldn’t rope in a 3rd team to give up a reasonably high draft pick this year).

But assuming Ferry manages to construct such a deal, is the financial body blow (pause) of absorbing Elton Brand worth it?  After considering it, I’m convinced that the answer is ‘yes.’

At first glance, this would seem to go against my post the other night about how the Cavs need to stop thinking so much about buying their way to a title. However, my main issue with that strategy’s implementation is that they’ve spent the past few years trying to buy the title with old guys. At least overpaying for Turner would get the team a young franchise building block, and potentially a young star. (I also like the fact that regardless of whether or not LeBron stays, Turner would have the opportunity to become the most popular player in franchise history just because he went to Ohio State.) In a way, it would be a do-over for the front office’s inability or unwillingness to trade up last year to get Steph Curry, which, right now, looks like a major gaffe if the potential was indeed there.

Remember, the Sixers were one of the two teams with whom the Cavs had extensive trade talks but no trades last year (GSW being the other). As we saw with the Shaq trade, deals discussed in the previous season do have the opportunity to get resurrected in the off-season.

Is it a long shot? Absolutely. But is it impossible? No.

But on further review, maybe the real question is how many of you think I’m crazy for getting excited enough about the possibility that I write this post in the first place. In that case, consider the Comments section your firing range.

-T