June 29, 2010
ESPN’s Free Agent Summit = Abyss of NBA Knowledge

Since the Cavs broke off contract talks with Brian Shaw earlier today, I have no real news to discuss right now. Instead, I’m going to take this time to address a half hour of TV that thousands of sports fans watched tonight—ESPN’s Free Agent Summit. Or, as I like to call it, “4 Guys Ignore Reality for 30 Minutes.”

In case you missed it, the show consisted of ESPN’s Tony Kornheiser, Mike Wilbon, Dan Lebatard, and Bill Simmons discussing the ins and outs of the Summer of Money. The problem is that apparently, none of them understand anything about the salary cap, let alone some basic things about the players involved. But what do you expect from a guy who, as far as I can tell, now only watches golf (Kornheiser); a guy who’s too busy being friends with the players and coaches to actually report on them objectively (Wilbon); a South Beach homer (Lebatard); and a reality TV scholar (Simmons).

It would take me all night to try to address every mistake or misconception this esteemed panel proclaimed, so instead I’ll just try to hit a few of the high points. It’s the best way I can think of to try to combat the dumbing down of American basketball fans.

1) It’s fiscally possible for LeBron, Wade, and Bosh to all play for Miami without anyone taking a pay cut

A max contract for the above players next season will be 105% of their 2009-10 salaries, or $16,568,908 according to cap sorcerer Larry Coon. Also per Coon, Miami will have $27,596,072 of cap space after re-signing Wade. That leaves Miami roughly $5.4MM away from being able to accommodate three max guys. Even if they manage to shed the radioactive Michael Beasley (guaranteed $4.9MM for 2010-11), they’re still short.

Further, a sign and trade isn’t possible because Miami doesn’t have the assets to match salaries for a third max contract. As of this moment, the only other players besides Beasley that are even on their roster are Mario Chalmers ($854,389), Joell Anthony ($885,120), and Kenny Hasbrouck ($762,195, unguaranteed). It may be possible via getting a third team involved, but what third team is going to want to help enable that deal? Oh, maybe the Wizards, since they seem to just want to help other teams clear cap space. But even that seems doubtful.

Bottom line: this scenario can play out, but only if one of the three stars voluntarily takes a pay cut. There’s a minimal chance of that happening with so many other teams willing to dish out max money.

2) Dirk Nowitzki should be the next player mentioned in all free agent talks (behind the guys mentioned above)

The amount of time that the panel spent on this topic was just remarkable to me. To Wilbon’s credit, he admitted what makes this subject so ridiculous: Dirk’s not going anywhere. His opt out just means he gets to negotiate a longer, higher-dollar extension with the Mavericks. This is the same scenario as with Paul Pierce, who opted out of the final year of his Boston contract tonight.

Beyond the dollars and cents aspect, I got a good laugh out of the notion that Dirk is such an important player that he should be in on the alleged face-to-face talks with Wade, James, and Bosh. Just think about that room for a second: the three supposedly tight-knit buddies in the primes of their careers…and then the 32 year-old German guy. For the record, Dirk would probably be a welcome presence in that room from a personality standpoint, since as far as I can tell he’s hilarious. But he’s not repped by CAA and can’t know any of those guys very well, let alone the fact that he’s on the complete opposite side of his career. It’s a little absurd.

Kornheiser really took the cake on this one. He predicted that Nowitzki would end up in Miami when it was all said and done. Frankly, I was surprised that Kornheiser was even aware that Miami had a franchise, but part of his reasoning for Dirk’s move may have been projecting how well he would fit alongside the likes of Rony Seikaly and Glen Rice. So I’m holding back the credit.

3) High quality veteran players will take the league minimum to play with a “Super Team”

I say this over and over again, but this is my favorite idea in the entire free agency discussion. I especially like it when pundits spout this minutes or seconds after declaring how ridiculous it is to think that in this crucial final year before the new CBA, the big-name free agents will opt for less money. I agree with that statement. But the notion that the little guys—the ones who aren’t making any endorsement money or getting any other major perks—are going to have a different mindset on the same issue is just unrealistic. 

Think about it: Tarence Kinsey and Dorell Wright—both low dollar role players in 2008-9—both got cited for traffic violations in Bentleys they’d bought that same season. It may be unfair to project that every guy in the league is living this far beyond his means, but I’m willing to bet that many of them are. Factor in their wives/girlfriends, kids, friends, and other expenses, and every dollar counts. Yes, chasing a championship is great, and some guys may take less money for the opportunity. But the notion that really high quality players who could easily command a bigger contract this summer—say, Ray Allen—are going to voluntarily opt for a veteran minimum contract…please.

4) The Nets will be shut out in free agency because “if you want to play in New York, why would you want to play for a team that stinks?”

Yes, the Nets were the worst team in the league last season with an abysmal 12-70 record. But they have the highly productive Brook Lopez, #3 pick Derrick Favors, and former All-Star Devin Harris. The Knicks were 29-53, traded their first round pick to the Rockets at last season’s deadline, and will lose their most productive player, David Lee, to free agency so they can clear cap space to chase a bigger star.

Bottom line: the Knicks had more than twice as many wins as the Nets last season, but they were still sub-30 wins. Does that mean they’re good, or just good by comparison? Plus, when you take the cool factor into account (Nets: charismatic billionaire owner, Jay-Z, upcoming Brooklyn move vs. Knicks: incompetent owner, decaying MSG as home floor), the Nets have to be considered a more appealing option. But maybe that’s just me. 

5) LeBron will skyrocket to multiple titles as soon as he changes teams, because he’ll “finally have a say in who his teammates are”

A lot of preposterous comments were made tonight. But this one, from the Miami Herald’s Dan LeBatard (whom I normally like), may have been the crown jewel. I really wish that Woj had been able to call into the show so he could set the record straight on this, but obviously it didn’t happen.

If the reports that came out at the end of this season were true—and I have every reason to believe they were—no single player in NBA history has had as much say in the roster around him as LeBron James. We know that LeBron approved the Shaq trade. He supposedly told the front office to go out and get Antawn Jamison mid-season. Multiple deals that Ferry had constructed were allegedly vetoed by James, and thus, by Dan Gilbert. To blame Ferry for the failures of the roster is a near-preposterous exercise.

In fact, if LeBron does end up winning a title or titles with a team such as Miami or Chicago, it will be precisely because he does NOT have a say in who his teammates are (beyond the obvious initial choice made by the switch itself). If Riley couldn’t be strong-armed by Wade, he won’t be strong-armed by LeBron. And if Jerry Reinsdorf couldn’t be strong-armed by MJ, he won’t be strong-armed by LeBron. For James, an iron-willed owner and/or team president may be the best thing. The question is whether or not that’s what he really wants.

I could go on forever about more topics. For instance, the “summit” spent an entire segment analyzing who would be a better pick-up between Shaq, AI, Jermaine O’Neal, and Tracy McGrady, but the phrase “sign and trade” never came up a single time in any of the talk of the marquee free agents. However, I have better things to do with my life than continue to talk about all the ways in which the mainstream sports media once again missed the boat.

My advice: til signatures start going on contracts, believe half of what you see and none of what you hear. Especially if Kornheiser, Wilbon, Lebatard, or Simmons is involved. Good night and good luck.

-T

11:50pm  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/752814496/espns-free-agent-summit-abyss-of-nba-knowledge
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FILED UNDER: NBA Free Agency LeBron Dwyane Wade Miami Heat Chicago Bulls Pat Riley 2010 
June 28, 2010
Week of Answers? Doubtful

Ladies and gentlemen, this is what everyone in the basketball world has been waiting for.

This Thursday, July 1st, officially marks the start of free agency. Given the activity on the rumor / spin mill since the Cavs’ season ended last month, it’s hard to believe that there’s another gear that this can all go to. But there is, and starting 12:01 AM on Thursday, we’ll all get to see what that’s like.

I for one am looking forward to it.

However, as much as I appreciate a good theater of the absurd—and really, is there any better description for this entire feeding frenzy around the class of 2010?—I’m looking forward to it for a different reason.

This is the week when we’ll finally start to get some answers about basketball in Cleveland. However, I want to heavily emphasize “some.”

Obviously, the franchise did nothing in last week’s draft—no picks, no trades, no significant moves of any kind. In fact, other than some clandestine coaching interviews that may or may not have happened, business has mostly ground to a halt since Reptile was rebuffed by Tom Izzo a few weeks back.

This week will be a different animal. Windhorst asserts that the front office hopes to have a coach in place before the start of free agency, regardless of whether or not Phil Jackson indirectly tries to cock-block the Cavs by dragging out his decision about returning to the Lakers. That, at least, will be something.

Theoretically, noted (metaphorical) hostage-taker LeBron James *could* make his big decision by this weekend, too. But I wouldn’t bet on it. If I’ve learned anything about James by studying him over the past 7 years, my guess is that he’ll drag this decision out all the way until he can officially sign somewhere on July 8th. If not longer. Remember, he’s been building to this moment since he signed his last extension at the end of the 2006 season. The idea that he’s going to just make a decision on the first or second day of free agency is naive, in my mind. He’s going to milk this thing for all it’s worth.

In other words, if you’re holding your breath for resolution on the James front, I’d suggest you wait another week before starting.

I’m no longer going to attempt to speculate on where he’s going to go when it’s all said and done. I doubt it will be Cleveland anymore, but I have no real evidence to base that on. Then again, I’m not sure that anyone else really does either. We’ve all been living in the LeBron spin zone for so long that it’s impossible to believe that anything being heard is the truth. (Sidebar: according to cap specialist Larry Coon, the Bulls are still likely going to be about $4MM away from being able to accommodate 2 max contracts after the Hinrich trade goes through, so don’t let any obnoxious know-it-all types tell you they’re a James Johnson trade away from having the space. They’re a lot closer than they were, but a $4MM difference is not insignificant.)

Unfortunately, we all know by now that James is the linchpin in the entire personnel game for the wine and gold. Coach or no coach, the front office won’t feel ready to make any roster moves until James has at last shown his hand. Which means that we’ve all got at least another week before any of the dominoes start to fall.

So take a deep breath. Even though the race begins Thursday, there’s still a lot of spectating to be done before anyone crosses the finish line.

-T

1:29am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/745001924/week-of-answers-doubtful
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FILED UNDER: Cavs Free Agency 2010 LeBron LeBron James 
June 22, 2010
2010 Cap Reality Series: the NYK Reversal

Some of our readers (though probably not many) may remember that a few months ago I did what I called a “Cap Reality Series” on some of the teams in the market to try to land LeBron this summer.

That series turned out to be a waste of time. Why? Because it was based on a complete misconception of James’s mentality and priorities. The primary error was that I took him at his word when he said that he cared about winning championships above all else. Since that time James has mailed in a playoff series, refused to speak to the Cavs’ #1 coaching candidate, and made it clear through his actions that his main goal is to market himself to as many people as possible.

As a result, much of the evaluation I did was way off-base. And in fact, some of it is laugh-out-loud funny, like when I slammed the Clippers for thinking it was a good idea to go into this historic off-season having just fired their head coach and GM. I still think it’s a stupid move, but it’s a bit ironic considering that the Cavs ultimately ended up doing almost the same thing by firing Mike Brown and then letting Danny Ferry walk away at the end of his contract.

Suffice it to say that if I were to write those same posts again today, I would come up with very different results. In some sense, that’s what I want to do right now, but only in one case—and really, in one aspect in particular.

The case would be the New York Knickerbockers. The aspect would be their head coach, Mike D’Antoni.

When I wrote my Knicks Cap Reality post in February, I had this to say about D’Antoni:

Even more importantly, is it even possible to build a championship team when it’s being coached by Mike D’Antoni, perhaps the least defensively minded coach in recent NBA history? I’ve heard analysts say that LeBron would love to play for him because D’Antoni would let LeBron run all game. Not only does Bron not care about running all game, he’s openly said over and over again that he knows defense is what wins championships. So why exactly is the D’Antoni / New York combo such a great fit for him?

Last weekend, I started reading Jack McCallum’s 7 Seconds or Less, his book about the 2005-6 Phoenix Suns. For anyone who doesn’t know, the Suns granted McCallum full access to basically all team functions as a nominal “special assistant” to the coaching staff that year. He was in the locker room, on the practice court, on the team plane—basically, everywhere the team went from the first pre-season practice through the end of their playoff run.

McCallum provides a revealing behind-the-scenes view of the personalities on the team, from the players to the coaching staff. In fact, the coaches are in many ways the stars of the book. And of course, D’Antoni is the featured attraction among this set.

I now have a much better sense of why D’Antoni has been pitched as the ultimate “player’s coach.” I have to say that it sounds like he deserves the title. He’s almost relentlessly positive with his team, and at the same time, does a tremendous job of bonding with them. For instance, McCallum makes a point early in the book that D’Antoni has been known to play video games with the players prior to regular season games, and that the players absolutely love this. (He also happens to be pretty freaking hilarious, which is generally a great quality for whatever you’re doing.)

Above all, D’Antoni’s offensive system is (theoretically) most players’ dreams. As long as they adhere to the principles at its core, the players have carte blanche to operate as they see fit within that offense. It’s telling that at one point during their playoff series against the Lakers, the Suns are floated a page from a Lakers’ assistant’s scouting report that was left behind in a hotel room. The neon quote from the scouting report was, “In Phoenix’s offense, literally nothing is frowned upon.” Admittedly, this isn’t true. Isolation plays, for instance, would be frowned upon in the Suns’ offense. But D’Antoni and his coaching staff loved this quote so much that they would insert it into practices and huddles as a kind of tongue-in-cheek sign-off. (“OK guys, go out there, match their intensity, be smart, and just run the offense. Remember, literally nothing is frowned upon.”)

However, here’s the other element that’s worth mentioning: throughout the book, D’Antoni talks a good game regarding defense. He spends time and energy going over it in pre-game meetings, at half-time, in practice. He’ll pitch defense to his players as the key to winning games. In short, the man knows how to pay the concept lip service.

That said, in private, his answer to everything is that his team just has to score more. For instance, Amar’e goes down with a knee injury early in the regular season—the opening salvo in the history of knee injuries that has turned Stoudemire into a certified health risk. Not for a moment does D’Antoni suggest that maybe the team should try to fill the void left by Amar’e by defending better or changing their style of play in any way. Instead, he immediately decides that they just need to amp up their scoring.

McCallum also makes a point that D’Antoni’s mind is basically made up about basketball at this point. He knows what he believes, and what he believes is that fluid offense and quick quality shots are the best way to win games. It’s not that defense doesn’t play a part in D’Antoni’s game plan; it’s just a really small part. He also tends to apply it selectively to a few guys. In the 2005-6 season, Raja Bell and Shawn Marion were the guys who were expected to go out and play stellar defense night in and night out. The rest of the team? They should try. But you know, if it didn’t work out, just keep scoring.

In my opinion, this is the perfect storm for a coaching pitch to James. Not the defense-minded James who wanted to win multiple championships, AKA the James of February 2010, but rather the James who wants to put up gaudy numbers, be the center of the greatest show on hardwood, and ultimately, not be challenged by his coach, AKA the James of Now and Forever. D’Antoni can sell James the idea that he does care about defense, and the James of public record can believe him and feel secure knowing that he’s in good hands. In reality, though, both men will know what the story is: D’Antoni will inflate James’s offensive numbers to historic proportions, and if he wants to defend, by all means go for it. It’s James’s show.

This last trait is the most important one. Woj and Ric Bucher have been adamant that James essentially believes that any improvements he needs to make to his game are going to be best determined by him. Coaches aren’t going to teach him anything. This is exactly the type of mindset that D’Antoni would bring to the table. He will be LeBron’s friend. He will laugh and joke and talk with LeBron. He will urge him to shoot, to pass, to run, to put on a show. And yeah, ok, every once in a while, to defend. But by and large, he will let James operate as James wants to operate. I suspect this will even apply when LeBron suddenly decides late in games that he wants to stop the ball and go 1-on-5 (AKA the fantastically mislabeled “Mike Brown’s offense”). Will this run counter to D’Antoni’s instincts as a coach? Absolutely. But as far as I can tell, he’ll let it go in exchange for three quarters per night of D’Antoni offense.

What does this all add up to? In my opinion, it may make the Knicks the leader to sign James. I honestly believe that. Look, he’s not going to Jersey to play for Avery Johnson. I’m becoming increasingly skeptical that he’s going to play in Chicago for Tom Thibodeau. And I ultimately believe that he doesn’t necessarily want to try to make it work with Dwyane Wade in Miami, because he knows Wade would still be the Alpha Dog there. Under Mike D’Antoni, the Knicks seem to offer what the real LeBron James cares about: the spotlight, the money, the numbers, and free reign to do as he pleases on the court.

Can D’Antoni win championships with James, though? Time will tell. But I for one am beginning to believe that time may be the only thing preventing us from knowing that answer.

-T

1:23am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/724774780/2010-cap-reality-series-the-nyk-reversal
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FILED UNDER: NBA Cavs LeBron 2010 Free Agency Knicks New York 
June 16, 2010
Reptile in Chains(?)

In the Cavs’ front office tonight, one simple question sums up the past week and a half of work on their coaching search and their increasingly futile efforts (or so it seems) to re-sign LeBron.

“Now what?”

As everyone knows by now, Tom Izzo announced at a press conference on Tuesday evening that he has rejected Reptile’s “framework” offer of $30MM over 5 years, unlimited use of a private jet, “on demand” baths in liquid platinum, a swimming pool filled with gold coins a la Scrooge McDuck, and who knows what else, to coach the Cavs.

CBS Sports’s Ken Berger wrote earlier that LeBron has now effectively locked the entire franchise into a cryogenic chamber until at least July 1. He argues that no “name” coaching candidate (and potentially no coaching candidate period) will ink a deal with the team until James’s status is known. Furthermore, even the team’s attempts to get back into next Thursday’s draft are handcuffed by not knowing for sure which players should be traded away, given that the centerpiece of the team is a question mark.

This last notion is one that I want to focus on—the reason being that I don’t totally buy it. (Of course, this may be because I have the luxury of being a fan / observer with no consequences attached to my thinking, aside from occasionally embarrassing myself in print on this blog. But hear me out.)

Consider the Cavs’ current roster for next year for a moment. Done? Good. Here’s my question:  apart from Andy, should anyone on that list really be untouchable?

To me, the answer is a resounding “no.”

This is the cold truth that the organization has to face up to: the Cavs have to proceed as if they’re in a rebuilding mode, regardless of whether or not James comes back. Why? Because either way, it doesn’t change the fact that the current roster will still be deficient on a foundational level. Mo Williams will still be an undersized, streaky, score-first point guard who collapses in the playoffs. Antawn Jamison will still be a supposed stretch 4 who doesn’t shoot well from midrange or long range and acts as a complete sieve on D. Delonte West will be traded regardless of James’s final decision. Boobie Gibson will still be an awesome catch-and-shoot player who brings little else to the table. Glitch will still be, well, Glitch—although his continued flubs have me on the verge of upgrading him to something like Permanent Fatal Error.

The rest of the roster consists of two categories:  capable role players (Moon*, Parker, Powe) whose value from a productivity standpoint is high in relation to their salary, and a couple of young guys who *could* grow into starters or sixth men (Danny Green and Sebastian Telfair) if they continue to develop.

(*Note: As we’ve stated over and over again, Moon’s advanced stats really suggest that he should be a starter, or should play starter’s minutes. But I’m lumping him in the ‘role player’ category because that’s the perception of him around the league, as far as I can tell.)

In fact, it’s arguable that the team’s most flawed players happen to double as their worst contracts. I would contend that Jamison has more value from a production standpoint than Mo, but I’m not concerned about comparisons. Antawn’s absolute value is somewhere far south of $28.4MM over the next 2 years, and that’s the issue. In either case, the player in question should still have value to other teams in the league. Dealing either (or preferably both) of them for some mixture of cap relief, draft picks, or younger players should really be a no-brainer.

This leads me to the other part of the equation: with or without James, the only sound solution for the Cavs is to get younger. Regardless of whether he was hamstrung from above or below, the Danny Ferry era proved conclusively that as executed, the “win now with veterans” strategy did not work. Repeating it would be disastrous. Finding lower-level veterans to fill in around your young assets never appears to be that difficult, and the difference in marginal value between a “really good” veteran versus an “average” or “decent” veteran is much smaller than the gulf between having a promising young core versus, well, not. 

Finally, because of LeBron’s ability to play multiple positions, it’s pretty hard to argue that the Cavs wouldn’t be able to figure out where to upgrade. Although his ability to switch between playing 3 and 4 leaves the forward spots open to some potential redundancy if the Cavs were to try to upgrade there, both guard spots are gaping holes, and finding a legitimate center—i.e. one capable of guarding Da-Wight, which Andy can’t do—would also be a pretty clear victory.

Look, even though I now think he’s an asshole, a liar, and a complete prima donna, LeBron James is really, really good at basketball. More to the point, he’s both extremely versatile and phenomenal at elevating the play of his teammates. If Chris Grant and Reptile do the reconstruction right, it’s entirely plausible that the Cavs would still be a playoff team next season and a contender again another year or two after that. LeBron’s own play and The James Effect on his teammates are that huge.

So if they’re thinking about things clearly, the front office has to recognize:

1) The Cavs can’t win a championship with Mo Williams and Antawn Jamison as key components of their core

2) Assuming the right moves are made, trading those players now lowers the team’s ceiling for the next season or two but raises it dramatically after that

3) While some of the other players on the team are a good or great value for the money, it’s bad business to hold onto them if it kills a deal for a potential young star (even if it’s in the form of a high draft pick)

4) There are at least 3 positions (1, 2, and 5) where the Cavs could use a serious upgrade

5) All of the above are true with or without LeBron

Clearly, I’m simplifying here. There are other considerations, such as which type of players will be benefited by the new coach’s system. But Berger is right: it’s now a foregone conclusion that the coaching search won’t be concluded until July. With the draft now 8 days away, it’s potentially disastrous for the front office to freeze on trades until that same period. (Realistically, a good coach will figure out how to best utilize the abilities of the roster he’s given anyway. He can then work with the front office in the future to refine it.)

Reptile and Chris Grant may not have a clear view of LeBron’s plans, but there is enough else on their roster that’s definite enough to construct a strategy. Whether or not they choose to be imprisoned by James’s chess game is ultimately on them.

-T 

12:32am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/703790627/reptile-in-chains
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FILED UNDER: NBA Cavs LeBron 2010 Free Agency Izzo Tom Izzo Dan Gilbert 
June 2, 2010
“The Summit”: Strategy, Fantasy & Reality

Here are three words I never want to hear in sequence again: Free. Agent. Summit.

It probably goes without saying that I’m referring to the fabled meeting of the minds first advertised by Dwyane Wade about a week ago—a not-so-secret session where the supposed best and brightest of the 2010 free agent class (James, Wade, and Joe Johnson) would hold court over what the future would hold for all of them when the Summer of Money officially begins on July 1.

First, Chris Bosh wasn’t mentioned as having a seat at the table. Then, a source made clear that the RuPaul of Big Men would be involved.

Then Amar’e—likely at the behest of his agent, the one and only Happy Walters—verified that he would be there. After all, how could a guy angling for a max contract be seen as outside of this particular circle? 

In his upcoming Larry King interview, LeBron confirmed King’s intuition that he was the “ringleader” of the group, and by logical extension, the key note speaker at the most important conference since the G8.

Meanwhile, sports pundits such as Mike Wilbon and Tony Kornheiser advocated for other “major” free agents, such as Carlos “Last Time I Was in This Situation I Stabbed a Blind Guy in the Back” Boozer, to join the talks as well.

Then Tuesday, Wade’s agent denied the “summit” was happening in any kind of formal way, likely because such a meeting would be perhaps the only clear-cut case of player collusion in league history.

My point is, there have already been hundreds of stories written on this thing by hundreds of sportswriters. Most of them, from what I can tell, are viewing it in the most grandiose possible terms. Phrases like “a meeting that will determine the future of the league” or “a redrawing of the NBA map” are being used regularly.

And even though I began this entire post thinking I couldn’t be any more tired of hearing about this thing, recapping all of that just took me to a whole new level of exhaustion.

So in the usual JMID attempt to cut through the smoke screen and see if there’s any actual fire, here’s a brief primer on why the “free agent summit” is the most overhyped, overestimated non-story of the 2010 offseason.

Point 1A) The core group of these guys (James, Wade, Bosh) are friends

Point 1B) All three are now repped by CAA

CBS Sports’s Ken Berger covered the agency story at length right after it happened. Definitely worth a read if you want more of the gory details.

The gist, though, is this: because of their friendship and the joint affiliation of their agents, the three players at the top of every team’s list were going to be working in tandem anyway. Whether this ultimately happened in a conference room at CAA or via a series of conference calls, it’s not going to change the outcome. James, Wade, and Bosh will plan their attack together.

Point 2) The expansion of the ‘summit’ to include more players is inconsequential

Free agency is a line of dominos that begins with LeBron and Wade, then goes to Bosh, and then trickles down to the rest of the available free agents. Until those first two decide where they want to play, the rest of the market is going to be a glacier. It’s only logical. Are the Clippers going to call ahead and offer Amar’e a max contract if LeBron is still in play? Are the Bulls going to hammer out a deal with Joe Johnson if Wade’s signature isn’t on a contract in Mickey Arison’s office? Uh, no. So the idea that even if this summit were to happen, these guys are going to sit around and carve up the NBA landscape like they’re playing a game of Risk is completely ignorant of how business works.

Even if this meeting were to happen in its most grandiose, inclusive form, what’s going to happen? Is Carlos Boozer going to dial up Donnie Walsh and say, “So the guys and I all talked, and we decided that you’re going to sign me.” Walsh’s reaction would be something on the order of, “Uh, thanks Carlos. But I already have a high-scoring, high-rebounding power forward who can’t play a lick of defense that I could re-sign for less. I’ll get back to you.”

Look, deal-making is a two-way street. It’s ludicrous to think that the owners and GMs of the league are going to just have the courses of their franchise dictated to them by a bunch of over-excited employees with nothing to do but daydream until July 1st. 

This is even more true when you consider that…

Point 3A) The number of teams with max cap space is a known quantity

Point 3B) None of these guys is taking less than a max contract

For whatever reason, a collective of sports pundits still seem to buy that some subset of these players will decide to take less money to play on a veritable All-Star team. This seems to be the real fantasy of the people talking up “the summit.”

To those of you who believe it, please, just stop. It’s getting embarrassing.

Regardless of whether or not they deserve max contracts, every big-name free agent this summer has a max ego. They have all convinced themselves that they can go somewhere else and make that franchise a champion. Obviously, it’s not going to work out that way. But perception, after all, is reality.

I don’t think that any player mentioned in connection to the summit has the self-awareness or the priorities to say, “What I really care the most about is winning. I can’t do it with just a bunch of role players, so I’m going to voluntarily turn down a max deal being offered to me by my existing team so I can jump ship to not only be a sidekick to one of these other guys, but be PAID like a sidekick to do it.” At least, not when we’re talking about a delta of tens of millions of dollars.

Don’t believe me? To review, here are the teams that are projected to be able to offer max contracts, along with the number of such contracts they can offer:

MIA: 2

NYK: 2

NJ: 1

CHI: 1

LAC: 1

WASH: 1

MIN: 1

OKC: 1

SAC: 1

Total: 11

TIER 1, a.k.a. Players who justifiably “deserve” the max:  LeBron, Wade, Bosh

Total Tier 1 players: 3

TIER 2, a.k.a. Players who *think* they deserve the max:  Joe Johnson, Amar’e, Boozer, Dirk, Rudy Gay, David Lee

Total Tier 2 players: 6

In short, even if you combine both of those two tiers, there’s too much money coming from too many sources for any of them to seriously consider turning it down in order to load up on one team. And that’s using a break-down that doesn’t even include the teams that can use the Bird Exception to re-sign their own free agent. So not only could Amar’e get a max contract from, say, Miami, he could get a BIGGER max contract to stay in Phoenix and play with Nash and a bunch of other guys that just got him to Western Conference Finals.

The bottom line is that unless you’re talking about the ’92 Olympics, the Dream Team concept is fiction.

Of course, if this huge meeting were to happen, some of these guys might be able to convince themselves in the moment that they’re willing to sacrifice, willing to try to be great. But then there’s this problem…

Point 4) When they leave the room, all bets are off

It’s easy to get wrapped up in the emotion of  a moment, in camaraderie, in talking about what ifs. But no contracts are being signed in that room. Which means that “the summit” has to adjourn, and everyone in on it has to go home.

This is the place where grand ambitions have a tendency to fade away—not in the moment among others, but in the quiet with your own thoughts.  

These players are all grown men. Most of them have families, some of them large families. They have a lifestyle they’ve grown accustomed to. They know the world’s economy is fucked up, and they know the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement is going to make this offseason potentially the last enormously profitable one (for players) in the history of the sport. 

It’s one thing for these guys to say while they’re in the room with their boys, “Yeah, screw it. I’m gonna be bold. I’m a man. I’ll take less money so we can play together on one of the great teams of all time.”

It’s entirely another for those same guys to go home and say it to their wives, the mothers of their children, and their agents—who, let’s not forget, are paid based on a percentage of what their clients make.

How many wives are going to say, “Great, baby, you take that pay cut to be 2nd or 3rd in command! The kids and I are really looking forward to uprooting ourselves and starting over in a completely new part of the country so we can cut back.”? 

How many agents are going to say, “Absolutely, killer. I would love for you to garnish my own wages so that you can maybe get a couple of trophies for team achievement that mean nothing to my life. Please, by all means, take the mid-level exception and reduce your own stats in the process so you can cripple your next contract too.”

In short, the summit is a grand idea. But even if it were to actually happen, it’s still a fantasy land. Reality hits when the players leave that room. And reality takes the wheel in most financial decisions.

As I think about it now, some part of me wishes that this summit would happen—but only if the players were to stick to the promises they made each other in that room. I wish that some of them would sacrifice money for a chance at greatness, a chance at a dream they’ve all had since they were kids. Part of me wishes that they would defy what’s in their best monetary interest in order to create something truly special, truly memorable, truly inspirational. As a fan, that would mean something to me. It would mean more to me as grown man chasing after my own dreams. I expect it would mean even more to thousands of kids on blacktop courts in worn-out shoes hoping for a better tomorrow.

And the rest of me knows it will never happen.  And in the end, it’s not the media blitz over “the summit” that upsets me. It’s knowing that even if the summit happened, the outcome would be no different.

To paraphrase a great philosopher on another topic, “Summit or do not summit. Both are equally worthless.”

I only wish some of these guys would prove me wrong.

-T.

10:00pm  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/658968884/the-summit-strategy-fantasy-reality
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FILED UNDER: NBA Free Agency 2010 Summit LeBron Dwyane Wade Chris Bosh