As Dad noted below — in what has to be one of the great extended analogies in sports blog history — PAD lives to piss on another tree.
Only after reacting with major surprise when the news broke did I realize that I should absolutely have seen this coming. Here’s a few reasons why, Terry Pluto-style (that means “with numbers”, not “by giving the Cleveland sports faithful a passionate reach-around at the expense of thoughtful analysis”)…
1) For all his errors and questionable decisions, the team seemed to play hard for PAD and his staff for the entire season, especially once the problematic elements (Braylon, in particular) got voted off the island. Walrus Dog talked a good game about the 4-game win streak not being everything, but as a coach, I think it was hard for him to discount it. As Dad used to tell me in my days of guitar playing, the two most important parts of any song are how you start and how you finish. And PAD undoubtedly finished strong.
2) If nothing else, PAD clearly knows how to work a room. Last year around this time, he wowed Lost In Space to the extent that LIS immediately ended his coaching search and signed PAD to a multi-year deal before any other team in the NFL had even shown any interest in his services. In his previous stop, PAD had so impressed Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum that essentially the same thing happened. So the idea that PAD could come in and work the same magic on Walrus Dog isn’t exactly shocking. My guess is that he can talk as good a game as anyone in the NFL when his job is on the line, and if you haven’t had any previous exposure to him, it’s going to be really easy to get drawn in.
On a side note, I would pay a premium to go back in a time machine and watch Mangini work over some college broads in a bar during his days at Wesleyan. I bet it was a real show.
3A) Keeping PAD for another year is a minimum-risk investment. WD knows that the Browns are still a long way from being truly competitive in the league. Barring the direct intervention of God on the sidelines, they will not be a playoff team next year. Meanwhile, he has a 10 year contract. So even if he completely botches this season, he knows he’s got a long leash before he starts to feel any real heat for his decision-making. The most important thing is that he and whomever he chooses as his GM manage to draft well so that the personnel can be set up for 2011. Which leads us to…
3B) The free agent coaching market this year just plain sucks when we consider who WD really wants as his guy. By all accounts, the real man in control here is Bob “Puppet Master” Lamonte, WD’s trusted agent and legendary salesman. Whether by Puppet Master’s design or by WD’s own will, only a pre-approved guy from either Puppet Master’s client list or WD’s own NFL family tree will fill that spot long-term. Preferably, the candidate will meet both criteria. But the only available candidate who really fits that bill right now is former Lions head coach Marty Mornhinweg, whose cumulative record stands at a sobering 5-27. Not exactly the type of guy you need to run out and hire after you’ve just been named the head of a franchise.
However, if WD waits another year, at least two members of his chosen flock ostensibly become available: John Fox and Jon “Pride of Sandusky” Gruden. The upcoming season is the final one on Fox’s deal with Carolina, and according to SI’s Peter King, Gruden seems to be 100% sincere that he wants to spend at least one more year in the booth for Monday Night Football before slapping on another head coaching visor.
Barring a major Panther’s surge next season, the consensus among sensible sports pundits is that Fox is nothing more than a lame duck. Supposedly the only thing keeping him around for 2010 is the fact that Carolina’s owner absolutely refuses to fire a coach he’s already agreed to pay. There was even some chatter that Fox would end up replacing PAD this year, though that always sounded unlikely to me.
That said, barring a continued climb by PAD’s squad, my bet right now is that Gruden takes the helm in 2011.
To summarize, WD had these choices:
A) Fire a smart, charming guy whose team just won 4 games in a row in a point in the season where most bad teams have already packed it in — and fire him despite that you’ve had almost no time to really evaluate his performance and think it’s fundamentally sacrilegious to only give a head coach one year to try to rebuild a franchise.
B) Keep the coaching staff in place so that you can focus on personnel for the next year and give yourself a year-long sample size to see how PAD reacts to not running the show, knowing full well that two of your disciples will be available to take over on Jan 1, 2011 if PAD isn’t getting results.
When you break it down like that, it seems easy to see why WD decided what he decided. Whether it’s the first in a string of decisions that renews the franchise or the first step on a path to another high-priced disaster remains to be seen. I guess we’ll have to wait and see what we’re talking about at this time next season…which isn’t exactly a phrase that gives me a great deal of confidence. But who am I to argue with an endangered species?
-T
