Now that we’ve all been able to recover from the fury of the trade deadline, I wanted to try to sort through what this summer may look like.
I’m referring, of course, to free agency. Which is not a topic that I normally like to think about. I’m the type of person who can go down the rabbit hole if he starts dealing with a situation where too many unanswerable “what ifs” are in play. As I stated on this blog about a week ago, I was almost more concerned over whether or not the Knicks were able to clear enough cap space to sign two max free agents than I was about the Cavs’ getting Jamison.
And yet, here I am…
I’m not the only one thinking about this topic, obviously. Mike already posted a link to ESPN’s breakdown of the franchises in play in this upcoming free agent season. Brian Windhorst wrote an article about the inherent gamble involved in staking your team’s future on free agency in the PD this Sunday. (Worth a read if you haven’t seen it already.)
I’m not entirely on board with some of the specifics that B-Dub uses—for instance, citing Gilbert Arenas as a positive pick-up for the Wiz seems dubious, especially since he then goes on to call Carlos Boozer a disappointment to the Jazz. But I do agree with the general sentiment. As I’ve said before, cap space is pressure. If a front office whiffs on the guys actually worth the money, they are automatically in peril of overpaying someone undeserving just so they can argue to the fan base that they got something for the money and the sacrifice it took to earn that money. Hence, the 2005 Larry Hughes signing after Ferry couldn’t convince Ray Allen or Mike Redd to walk away from re-signing with their then-current teams.
With all that in mind, though, I haven’t yet seen an honest, in-depth breakdown of the pros and cons going for each of these franchises who have cleared the cap space to make a run at LeBron this summer. So over the course of the next week or two, I’m going to do it team-by-team. Starting with…
CONTESTANT #1: THE MIAMI HEAT
*Note: I am going to run w/the assumption of a $53M cap and therefore a max contract value of $16.56M in the first year, but all of the analysis in this series could be rendered moot if the cap comes in higher or lower than that figure.
The Sell Job: In many regards, it could be argued that Miami is the most dangerous of the suitors vying for Bron. Players love South Beach and warm weather climates in general. Unlike some of the other potential free agent destinations, the Heat are a perennial playoff team. The young players still likely to be on the roster—Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook, and Mario Chalmers—have talent. Also unlike New York, the Heat have draft picks and will be far enough under the cap that they will NOT have to fill out their roster entirely with minimum salary players. Wade and Bron are close friends, and the lure of playing together every game is tantalizing. Pat Riley has built a championship team as recently as 2006, and the man is a legend of the game that a young stud like LeBron would naturally gravitate toward as a mentor figure. With the right roster, he could even come down from the box and back to the bench.
The Reality: Though not as much of a desert as New York (who I’ll look at on Wednesday), the Heat’s roster—other than Wade—is hardly one to motivate a smart player to jump ship from a contender. Beasley has talent (averaging 19 PTS/ 7.8 REB per 36 on 48% shooting), but has also had off-court troubles. With the exception of FT%, STL, and TOV, his per-36 numbers in his second season have either plateaued or declined. Cook won a three-point contest a year ago, but is only averaging 37% 3FG and a dismal 36% FG overall for his career. Chalmers, meanwhile, is the guy who chucked up a half court shot in the middle of a 4th quarter run by the Cavs last year because he thought a non-existent TO had been called. Apart from that, he’s only getting 25 minutes of playing time per game this year, though his per 36 stats aren’t…well, they’re not good (11.1 PTS on 42.6% FG / 5.4 AST / 2.3 TOV).
Then there’s the Alpha Dog issue. If Bron goes to Miami—which has been Wade’s team for the past 7 seasons—how does that work out? Officially, Wade is a shooting guard and Bron is a forward. But in terms of how frequently they want the ball in their own hands on the perimeter, they essentially play the same position. Bron is clearly not ready to make a living posting up, mostly because he doesn’t want to. So would he be able to co-exist with Wade on the same team? Probably. But I don’t know that he’d love it long-term.
Meanwhile, Wade has even said himself that if he could play with anyone in the league, he’d choose Da-wight over Bron. Considering that Wade won a title by combining with a powerhouse inside presence, this should shock absolutely no one. It’s also not a coincidence that Riley’s primary trade targets in the past two seasons have both been big men—Carlos Boozer and Amar’e Stoudemire.
What about the lure of South Beach? There are a lot of players in this league that this venue would make a difference to. I don’t necessarily think Bron is one of them. Though I’m sure he’s not a clergyman in his off-hours, I feel comfortable saying that Bron’s priorities are truly winning, improving his game, and building himself into a global brand. The idea that he’d immediately flip for the opportunity to play in Miami so that he can hang out in South Beach is ludicrous. Look, if the guy wants to go to the beach, he can charter a plane and be there in a few hours. If he wants prime night life, he can be in New York or Vegas or LA just as easily. If he wants beautiful Cuban women, I’m willing to bet that he can have them flown in via a quick phone call to World Wide Wes or Maverick Carter. But the idea that the commute to the beach is going to be a major factor in LeBron’s decision-making on where to play is just incredibly naive to me.
Then there’s the great Pat Riley.
Yes, the man is a basketball legend. Yes, he’s won multiple titles as a Hall of Fame coach and GM. But look at how the team has done since winning the 2006 championship:
2007: 44-38, swept by Chicago in first round of playoffs.
2008: 16-57, worst record in the NBA.
2009: 43-39, L to Atlanta in first round of playoffs.
2009-10: today, the Heat has a 29-28 record and will have to fight like hell to hang onto the 8th seed in the playoffs, where they will undoubtedly be bounced in the first round yet again.
This leaves their cumulative record since 2006 at a sobering 132-162. The franchise has died in the first round of the post-season twice, missed it entirely once, and will do either one of those or the other again this year. Since dealing Shaq to the Suns in 2008, the biggest-name running mate that Riley has given Wade in Miami has been either a past-his-prime Shawn Marion or Jermaine O’Neal, who by this point has had more operations than Frankenstein’s monster. (If I had to guess, Wade’s most productive teammate in terms of advanced stats has probably been Udonis Haslem, who the Heat will likely not retain when his contract expires this summer.) I don’t normally argue for the merit of big names, but in this case, it’s not as if Riley can point to the franchise’s record over the past 4 seasons and argue with a straight face that he’s complemented Wade with quality role players.
Of course, Wade and Riley have been in a protracted staring contest over the roster for years now. Their owner is widely renowned as one of the cheapest in the league. Compare that to what Bron has gotten from Danny Ferry and Dan Gilbert.
Then there’s the issue of draft picks. Yes, the Heat have two in the first round (one of their own and one from Toronto from the Jermaine O’Neal trade). But barring a total shift in those teams’ outlook for the rest of this season, both will be mid-rounders. And it’s not as if Riley has exactly been setting the world on fire with his draft prowess since plucking Wade at #5 in 2003. Yes, Beasley is a potential complementary piece, but it was pre-ordained that whomever ended up with the #2 pick last year was going to take him. It’s not as if Riley did some clandestine research to uncover an unknown gem. Meanwhile, the other players he’s drafted since Wade are as follows:
2003: Jerome Beasley (#33 overall)
2004: Dorell Wright (#19) and Pape Snow (#47)
2005: Wayne Simien (#29)
2006: no picks
2007: Jason Smith (#20) and Stanko Barac (#39)
2008: Michael Beasley (#2) and Darnell Jackson (#52, traded to Cavs)
2009: Marcus Thornton (#43) and Robert Dozier (#60)
I rest my case.
Finally, there’s the cap space itself. Under the assumption of a $53M cap, the first year of a max contract for a player w/Bron’s or Wade’s tenure would be $16.56M. So two maxes = $33.12M. Beasley, Cook, and the team option on Chalmer’s combine for ~$8M. Two mid-first rounders, according to ESPN, maths out to another $2.5M total. This all adds up to $43.62M, which leaves the Heat with ~$9.5M to fill out the other 5 roster spots required to get to the minimum 12. According to the NBA minimum salary scale, that leaves the Heat with some room to get creative—but not much. They will mostly have to rely on other players taking lower salaries for the opportunity to play with their imagined two max contracts, which may or may not be realistic.
Add all this up, and what do you get? A middle of the road roster that is going to have to rely on players choosing winning over money to fill out into complementary shape. A geographical / off-hours destination that probably doesn’t matter all that much to the guy in question. A GM with weak draft skills and an ego that will motivate him to play hardball with the only player keeping his franchise from contraction, even to the extent that he will completely waste 4 years of that player’s prime to prove a point. A star player basically already occupying the position Bron is used to manning. And to top it off, he wouldn’t even be able to wear #23 because Riley decided to retire the number of a competing player in his own arena’s rafters.
Prediction: Miami signs Amar’e and Wade to max deals, condemning the franchise to an annual #4 seed and at best, a single conference finals appearance after both players battle injuries for the remainder of their careers.
Series to be continued.
-T.
