January 16, 2011
Browns Draft Considerations

The link jumps to an excerpt from a book called Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won, by Tobias J. Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim. The book itself is billed as “Freakonomics for sports.” I just read another excerpt on a different topic in the new issue of Sports Illustrated last night have been really impressed with it so far.

The excerpt in question here is titled “The Curse of the No. 1 Draft Pick.” In it, Moskowitz and Wertheim provide data to support the notion that the best possible move for any NFL team picking in the top 10 is for them to trade down. This seemed like a relevant topic to consider today, as the conference championship match-ups were set while the Browns were busy trying to put together another new coaching staff.

The two strongest parts of Moskowitz’s and Wertheim’s argument are that evidence shows teams wanting to move up pay entirely too highly for the right to do so (in both compensatory picks and salary for their targeted player), and that in each draft class there is only a marginal difference in value between the top 4 players at any given position. In fact, when it’s all said and done, they argue that the first pick in the 2nd round carries more value than the 1st overall pick.

The ideas themselves aren’t necessarily new, but I applaud Moskowitz and Wertheim for using data to make the case. Admittedly, their argument will lose a little of its strength next season—whenever “next season” begins—because a new CBA is almost guaranteed to include a rookie wage scale that reduces the discrepancy between salaries for top picks versus lower picks.

Still, with the Browns holding the sixth pick and fans clamoring for a big name college player to start solving their problems, this study serves as more evidence that the best move for the health of the franchise is to pull a Belichick: Take advantage of an overzealous (probably QB-needy) team to stockpile picks and players, load up with talent at a higher rate than everyone else, and start blowing the doors off over the course of a few years.

You could say that this strategy didn’t work out so well for Belichick today. But keep in mind that the Patriots—who went 14-2 this year—have 3 of the top 34 picks in the next draft because of the strategy Moskowitz and Wertheim suggest as the norm. They can’t win every year, but they are going to continue to be really good for a really long time. That sustainable success is exactly what the Browns need to become relevant again. We’ll find out whether or not they recognize it.

One reason I think they very well may: the other team cited as the greatest champion of this strategy is Andy Reid’s Eagles, AKA Tom Heckert’s and Pat Shurmur’s Eagles. Let’s hope it all stays in the family tree.

-T

7:40pm  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/2788816138/browns-draft-considerations
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FILED UNDER: NFL Draft Browns Cleveland Heckert Shurmur Belichick Patriots Eagles Andy Reid Advanced Stats Data 
January 10, 2011
Pat Shurmur & The Cool

The Browns are set to interview current Giants’ defensive coordinator Perry Fewell today, but according to sources such as Peter King, Rams’ offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur is the current favorite for the job.

This is not news in and of itself. I won’t bother listing out all the boxes Shurmur has checked; undoubtedly you’ve read that somewhere else by now. Suffice it to say that he has past relationships with both Holmgren and Heckert.

What’s notable, though, is what King tweeted earlier this morning in response to the question of who else was looking at Shurmur as a head coaching candidate. The answer was clear, concise, and unmistakable.

King simply wrote—and I quote—“No one.”

Now, there are two totally opposite ways to interpret this information. One is to conclude that the front office is being too heavily influenced by their past ties to Shurmur. Their judgment is being clouded by the fact that, on some level, they would really like Shurmur to be the real deal just because they like him as a person, even if there’s evidence that his professional chops are under-developed. As a result, they’re strongly considering elevating a guy who no one else in the league thinks is ready to take over head coaching duties.

However, the other way is to conclude that the front office is being influenced by their past ties just heavily enough to be able to see something about Shurmur that no other front office in the league right now does. In other words, because both Holmgren and Heckert have past personal and professional ties with him, they have inside knowledge that suggested to them that he was a more worthy candidate than anyone else did. So they took a flyer on interviewing him and—possibly to their own surprise—came away thoroughly impressed.

As we’ve discussed many times in the past, this is where GMs and Team Presidents really earn their keep: by identifying undervalued assets. This is true in any sport. It’s especially true in situations where franchises need to reshape themselves dramatically. Despite any improvements we can argue ourselves into seeing, the Browns are still such a franchise. If they weren’t, they wouldn’t have fired their old coach in the first place.

With that in mind, there’s certainly no reason to limit this thinking to personnel. The process of evaluating coaches is essentially identical. As I’ve written before, the AFC North is proof of that. Remember, there was no league-wide interest in Mike Tomlin when the Steelers hired him; to my recollection, he was brought in simply to fulfill the Rooney Rule requirement. Instead, he blew away the Rooneys themselves and now has a Super Bowl ring.

Similarly, the only reason John Harbaugh had the opportunity to even interview with Baltimore was that their first choice, Jason Garrett, rejected the Ravens’ contract offer in favor of staying as a Cowboys assistant. It was the only interview that John got. At this rate, though, his may be the last head coaching interview the Ravens conduct this decade.

By no means am I saying that Pat Shurmur is definitely going to be a brilliant hire and a successful head coach in the NFL. What I am saying, though, is that Browns fans shouldn’t bring out the pitchforks if the front office ultimately hires a guy who no other franchise saw fit to interview.

To broad the perspective momentarily, too many people in life chase the cool and spar with one another for a hot candidate for anything, not necessarily because the person in question has actual substance, but because they believe someone else wants to him/her first. This is true in business, in the arts, in sports, in dating, in everything. The phenomenon will never change; it’s basic human nature.

However, those among us who have the ability to fight through the jealousy traps ultimately open themselves up to possibilities and advantages that the rest of the pack simply won’t see. It may be that Pat Shurmur is one such advantage. We may never find out. But instead of blasting Holmgren and Heckert for considering him, I think we should all, for the moment, keep in mind the possibilities of the undiscovered.

-T

11:49pm  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/2695701260/pat-shurmur-the-cool
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FILED UNDER: NFL Coaching Pat Shurmur Holmgren Heckert Browns 
January 4, 2011
The Newfound Vulnerability of Mike Holmgren

As the level of chatter around the Browns’ now-vacant head coaching position rises, there’s another way that Eric Mangini’s recent dismissal is significant for the organization.

Whatever its contents may be, from here on out Mike Holmgren is officially the man holding the bag.

Holmgren has been in his presidential role with the Browns for a little more than a year. But the 2010 season was a hybrid of sorts. Holmgren was steering the ship, but the ship itself and the staff onboard were inherited from someone else.

Holmgren kept Mangini on for a sophomore year, but Randy Lerner was the one who hired him in the first place. Mangini, in turn, had sole discretion over his coordinators and assistant coaches.

Holmgren installed Tom Heckert as the GM, but their dual imprint on the personnel was limited to one draft and a handful of free agent signings. The bulk of the players on this year’s team were still there thanks to Mangini. 

This situation created a sizable safety net for Holmgren. Mangini was still the head coach; Mangini was still responsible for the coaching staff; and Mangini was still the mastermind behind most of the roster. Everyone knew this, from the fans to the journalists.

So when the team nose-dived yet again, where was the criticism directed? Mangini. It seemed like this was the case even when a player brought in under Holmgren’s watch—specifically, Jake Delhomme—could be singled out as a prime reason for some of the team’s more disappointing losses.

In jettisoning Mangini, Holmgren has essentially thrown away his flak jacket. From the front office to the sidelines to the center of the field, the team is now completely his.

We’re already seeing the consequences of this new reality. Even after the Ravens game in week 16, fans and local sports personalities were clamoring for Holmgren to come down from the owner’s box and take up the play-call sheet again. When he announced in his press conference on Monday that that wasn’t going to happen (for now), the backlash began. When the new head coach is actually hired, it’ll continue, even if the choice is a superstar name like Jon Gruden (who, by the way, I am not endorsing). It’ll build even more violently if the selection is a current assistant with a previous and disastrous head coaching stint on his resume (see: Mike Mularkey, Marty Mornhinweg).

When will it end? In the two months between the Browns’ first Super Bowl win and the following season’s draft. Anything else is fair game for Cleveland sports fanatics. As evidence, I will always remember reading a Plain Dealer online “Cavs comment of the day” from the 2008-2009 season where the reader proclaimed the squad to be “the worst 65-win team [he’d] ever seen.” Yes, it was about a different sport, but the mentality here is the same regardless of the shape of the ball—and in most cases, regardless of whether we’re talking about Cleveland or any other sports city in America. People just dig complaining and criticizing.

The reality is that everyone living vicariously through the Browns’ performance will be satisfied with nothing less than perfection. I doubt Holmgren is a stranger to this concept. He did suffer through some hard times in Seattle when he was performing the dual duties of coach and GM, after all. I assume that he’s ready for the angry mob to take aim at him again now that he has a blank organizational slate to work with.

Even though Holmgren has already been on the job for a year, he truly starts earning his paycheck now. Let’s see how he does.

-T

10:51pm  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/2606491337/the-newfound-vulnerability-of-mike-holmgren
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FILED UNDER: NFL Browns Holmgren Mangini Heckert GM Coaches 
September 17, 2010
Vincent Jackson and the Question of Priorities

I was perusing ESPN’s NFL Rumors section earlier today, and just like every other day, there was an update on Chargers WR Vincent Jackson and his hold-out / suspension situation.

For those of you who don’t try to escape your job by reading about sports as much as possible during office hours—oh wait, that’s probably exactly what you’re doing right now. I forgot. Anyway, Vincent Jackson was facing two separate 3-game suspensions before today: the first for violating the league’s personal conduct policy, the second for being placed on the Chargers’ roster-exempt list by the front office, which basically amounts to a penalty for his hold-out stance. Like teammate and star LT Marcus McNeill, Jackson’s agent convinced him to hold out in hopes of negotiating a bigger money deal this season. The Chargers, of course, are having none of it and are looking for any way possible to tweak Jackson before they put together a deal to send him out.

Why the hell am I talking about Vincent Jackson? Because, for some reason I can’t totally fathom, the Browns keep coming up in ESPN’s updates as a possible trade destination for him. 

When I read this initially, I felt like the Browns should absolutely do this deal if it’s there.  According to NFL gossip guru Adam Schefter, the price to pry Jackson away from the Chargers would likely be a “premium” draft pick, which Schefter translates as…a 3rd rounder.

This is what baffles me about the NFL. I understand the high turn-over rate of players, and thus the value of the draft. But in this case, Jackson is a Pro Bowl wide receiver who just turned 27 in January. His number of receptions and total receiving yards have increased every season. He’s averaged just over 1,100 yards per season for each of the past two seasons. His career average for yards per reception is 17.2. He’s scored 25 touchdowns in 6 seasons and has fumbled only once in his entire pro career. And he was drafted in the second round in 2005.

In other words, now that Jackson’s ability is a known quantity, the Chargers are asking for a future draft pick that is a round lower than the one they actually acquired him with in the first place. And apparently, teams have been hesitant about pulling the trigger. 

In fairness, the two hurdles to a trade seem to have been the question of how many games Jackson will miss this season due to suspension, and his salary demands. Schefter reports that Jackson is seeking a multi-year deal in the range of $9MM per. That’s significant money to pay for a receiver on a team with no playoff aspirations whatsoever.  But the idea that no team—let alone the Browns, who are constantly in need of talent—is willing to sacrifice this money and a 3rd round pick for a Pro Bowl receiver just leaves me confused. The ice may thaw in the next few days now that the length of his suspension is clear (4 games if he’s traded by Wedneday) is clear, but we’ll see.

If the Browns are seriously considering this trade, they have two major aces up their sleeves: first, all signs are that their 2011 picks will be very high in their respective rounds; second, the Chargers seem to be pissed enough at Jackson that they would go out of their way to deal him to a shit team. In that case, the Browns could easily become a favorite to land him, and the argument for acquiring him seems to get stronger.

However, after considering further, this trade seems like it could be one of the most ignorant, mis-prioritized moves the Browns could possibly orchestrate.

By all accounts, Jackson is a legit star-quality #1 wide-out. But as usual, the problem is that the Browns still don’t seem to have anyone who can actually throw the ball to him accurately. (I should give Seneca Wallace a chance, and I don’t even want to throw Jake Delhomme over the railing yet, but it’s safe to say the team hasn’t established a consistent, quality answer at the position as of now.) In that sense, trading for Vincent Jackson would be equivalent to filling your tank with high-octane gas despite that your car is missing an engine, or buying specialty condoms even though, as a sex survey I got in the mail in high school put it, you are “unable to find a willing partner.”

Theoretically, having a “star” wide-out is great. But in all fairness, no one really has any idea how good the Browns’ current crop of young receivers is because the QB situation continues to be a disaster. Why blow a good draft pick and $9MM per year on one receiver when the team still has a gaping hole at QB that cripples all receivers regardless of quality? 

In short, I can’t really come up with a good reason. Unless Heckert and Holmgren are convinced that Colt McCoy is the answer starting next season. And I don’t think there’s anywhere near enough evidence to make that claim.

I would be floored if the Browns actually made this trade. In the event that it does go down, though, I think it’s a major warning sign about the front office’s evaluation process.

-T

1:57am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/1136621199/vincent-jackson-and-the-question-of-priorities
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FILED UNDER: NFL Browns Cleveland Holmgren Heckert 
September 15, 2010
Eric Mangini’s Fright Night Double Feature

Let’s play a guessing game.

Imagine for a moment that you’re an NFL coach. 

You’re returning to the same team you coached the prior season.

Judging by your team’s record, that last season was not successful. Ten losses will put any coach on the hot seat. You had more than that.

So you know that this season, your program must show colossal improvements, or else in all likelihood it’s time to book a moving company.

You’re confident this improvement can happen. You played a major personnel role last year. Part of your impact there was to get rid of the bad apples and bring in your own  hand-picked replacements. Veterns who understand what you want. Young players who can be taught to play the game the right way from day one.

The stars look like they’re aligning. Almost everything is in place.

Then, in the off-season, your boss and the General Manager combine to pull a major power move on you.

They bring in a new starting quarterback. One who’s been to the Super Bowl. But not all that recently. Still a “name” guy, but one clearly on the twilight side of his career. A QB known to have a quick release and a big arm—but also one with an increasingly nasty reputation for poor decisions and interceptions. Both of which are near the top of your black list.

In particular, this quarterback had some issues in his final year at his last stop. He’s the type of guy who, it’s believed, might just need the infamous change of scenery to get him back on track. Or else he’s past the point of no return, and only the team who’s employed him for his entire career as a starter knows him well enough to realize it. That would make your team the patsy.

Nevertheless, the higher-ups pay big money to install this quarterback at the front of your system. They believe he’s got a veteran presence that will help guide the team to victory. Just as importantly, they think that he’s still got the talent to get it done.

In so many other areas of the team, you’ve gotten your way. But the most important position has been filled by someone who fits a profile that is, in many ways, the exact opposite of what you’d like.

Then, when that QB goes out and begins making exactly the types of mistakes you feared he would make, you get a sick feeling in your stomach. Because when the expectations for improvement aren’t fulfilled, you know that the guillotine isn’t hanging over your quarterback’s head so much as it’s hanging over your own. And unlike your new quarterback, you’re going to end up having to take a bullet for something that isn’t your fault.

OK, given this story, who are you?

If you guessed Eric Mangini, you’re correct.

Now, what team are you coaching?

If you guessed the 2010 Browns, you’re correct.

But if you guessed the 2008 New York Jets…you’re also correct.

Welcome to Eric Mangini’s deja vu experience.

Prior to both of the seasons mentioned above, an eerily similar drama played out. In New York, owner Woody Johnson and GM Mike Tannenbaum supposedly put Brett Favre in place against Mangini’s wishes. In Cleveland, Mike Holmgren and Tom Heckert have essentially done the exact same thing with Jake Delhomme.

Admittedly, these two situations aren’t identical. Even if they didn’t meet the high bar set out for them, the Jets of 2008 were still much improved from their 2007 counterparts.  They tacked on 5 more wins, going from 4-12 to 9-7. Yet there were hopes that with Brett Favre at the helm, they would at least make the playoffs, if not make a surprise run to a conference title game. Despite a strong start, they collapsed in the second half and missed out on the wild card. From there, Mangini was canned, and Favre was shipped out shortly thereafter.

None of us has any idea what the final record of the 2010 Browns will be, but no one licensed to live outside of an asylum believed they were capable of a +5 win improvement, let alone a playoff berth. Jake Delhomme, as I’ve mentioned earlier, is by almost all passing statistics a worse quarterback than Brett Favre. Unlike in New York where he had Chad Pennington at the helm, 2010 Browns Mangini didn’t have a previous starting QB that he loved and wanted to keep. He may not even have been against Delhomme in spirit. But one difference that’s indisputable: after wetting the bed against Tampa Bay to open the season, a strong start (and therefore, a late-season collapse) by this year’s Browns squad is by definition impossible.

Mangini knows he’s on the hot seat. Everyone in the city and the league knows it. But I doubt that any of those other people know it in their blood the way that Mangini does—not just because he’s the one who stands to lose or gain, but because only he would recognize just how many parallels are in action between those two situations. Because as our little guessing game proved, there are a lot of them, down to the fact that Mangini’s current Defensive Coordinator is a shave and a haircut away from essentially being the same guy who ultimately took his job in New York after the 2008 season.

In the winter of 2011, will Rob Ryan become the new Rex Ryan by usurping the head coaching gig Mangini just vacated? It seems unlikely to me. But as irrational as it may be, you can bet that every time Mangini looks at his defensive coordinator, his quarterback, or his GM, he gets a little jolt of deja vu. Only time will tell if this movie concludes the way the last one did. But Mangini can’t be thrilled about the plot so far. 

-T

1:04am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/1125503552/eric-manginis-fright-night-double-feature
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FILED UNDER: NFL Mangini Cleveland Browns Holmgren Heckert Brett Favre Jake Delhomme New York Jets