This is my least favorite part of the year from a sporting standpoint.
Not only are the NBA playoffs long gone, but the exciting aspect of free agency is in the rear view miror, too. Regular season baseball holds no draw whatsoever for me (at least, as an Indians’ fan). Football season is still two months off.
In fact, I was in a sports bar on Saturday night and the only coverage running on TV was of the British Open and Summer League basketball. Yikes.
I bring this up because, in a way, it highlights the state of the average Cleveland fan. With LeBron gone, many seem to think, what the hell do we do now?
Now, as I’ve written recently, practically everyone is underestimating the quality of the Cavs’ roster James left behind. They’ve already been written off as, if not a lottery team, certainly a team that won’t so much as sniff the 8th seed in the East. I disagree with this, but perception is reality.
Despite a recent surge, the Indians are still an ocean away from competing in the Central division. Carlos Santana has added some small bit of intrigue, but facts are facts. The Tribe is 12.5 games behind the White Sox, with both the Twins and Tigers only 1.5 games out of first themselves. It’s not impossible the team could get back into the race, but at this point it seems unlikely.
This leaves the Browns.
Energized by Mike Holmgren’s presence, some notable (if dubious) off-season moves, and a hold-over effect from the 4-game winning streak on which they rode out the 2009 season, the Browns have become the city’s undisputed sports focal point.
That said, no one (fans or pundits) seems to believe the 2010 Browns will be better than .500, and even that may be a near-miracle.
For now, though, they are once again the great hope.
This raises a semi-interesting question about expectation.
In my opinion, the Browns have enjoyed somewhat of an irrational golden age in the court of public opinion for the past several years. You can tell me that attendance was dramatically down this past season. That’s true. You could tell me that Browns fans have had no lack of venom to spew about the team, the coaching staff, the organization as a whole. That’s true too.
But I would argue that it’s also true that while in or near season, they’ve still dominated the sports discussion in the city.
More importantly, they’ve done this despite the fact that, by any measure, they have sucked all but two years since the franchise reboot.
Since that time, the burden of being THE team in Cleveland expected to win has seldom been on them. The Indians won at least 90 games per season from 1999-2001. The Cavs lucked into LeBron James in the summer of 2003. Appropriately enough, the Browns went 9-7 and made the playoffs in 2002.
Obviously, the Cavs weren’t expected to immediately shoot into title contention after the 2003 draft. But the mere hope and excitement around having the home-town phenom on OUR team, for once, may have been enough to keep people satisfied for a time—especially when the Cavs won 18 more games in 2003-4, barely missed the playoffs the season after, and then grew into a perennial playoff team and seeming powerhouse until, oh, about two weeks ago.
During that time, Clevelanders could look to the Browns as a favored son, partially because the hope for winning could be largely satisfied by someone else. In the years immediately after the Browns’ return, it was the Indians. Since 2003, it’s largely been the Cavs.
Now, though, the spotlight has squarely turned back to Berea.
Some historical perspective comes into play here, too. Since the Cavs completed the pro triumvirate in Cleveland with their inaugural 1970 season, there have only been 5 years out of a possible 40 where multiple of the city’s franchises have been competitive at once.
The only time that all three have been simultaneously good was 1994. The ‘93-94 Cavs got into the playoffs on a 47-35 record, but lost in the opening round; the ‘94 Browns went 11-5 and were hammered by the Steelers in the Divisional round of the post-season; and the ‘94 Indians were 66-47 when the lock-out crashed the rest of the season.
Aside from that magical year, the Cavs and Browns were both playoff teams in 1989 & 1990. The Cavs and Tribe were both playoff teams in 1985 & 1998.
That’s it.
The point? Almost invariably, there has only ever been one of the three teams “worth” following, i.e. if you define value in terms of the expectation that the team can truly compete week after week.
With James gone and the Cavs likely to embark on a longer-term rebuilding process, the weight falls once again on the shoulders of Randy Lerner’s team. I suspect this has already magnified the intensity of the pressure the organization feels.
They can no longer be the puppy that everyone loves, despite that it keeps whizzing on the carpet. For the first time in a long time, they are going to be expected to produce for the city.
Starting in about two months, we’ll all find out whether they’ve righted the ship just in time to shoulder the load. If not, it could be a long year for any Cleveland fan who isn’t willing to take the long view.
On Monday, National Football Post’s Michael Lombardi dedicated part of his column to Mike Holmgren’s open statement that the Browns would not be picking Jimmy Clausen with the #7 overall draft choice. In case you missed it, here’s the quote:
“I wish I liked him more. You know how you have a type of player that you like? It’s not scientific. People like him a lot. He’ll go high. But it would be hard for me (to take him).”
As Lombardi points out, this is not a savvy move by a team’s top executive. Information, as we all know, is power. This is especially true when it comes to the draft. Buffalo is the only other team picking after the Browns in the top 10 that is also desperately in need of a franchise quarterback. (The Rams and Redskins have both been pegged as teams potentially looking to upgrade the position, but both choose ahead of the Browns at #1 and #4 overall, respectively.) Sam Bradford and Clausen are the only two quarterbacks that any draft expert I’ve seen has placed anywhere in the first round.
It’s entirely possible that the Rams pick Bradford, the Redskins pick Clausen, and the entire point is moot. But if the Redskins use their pick on a more workman-like position (say, OT, where they’re also deficient) the Browns have already blown any chance to pressure the Bills into trading up for the opportunity to pick Clausen. Holmgren has also potentially pissed off the front offices of both Kansas City (#5 pick) and Seattle (#6), both of which stood to gain from the same scenario. Don’t expect any deals with either of them any time soon.
This Clausen incident is just the latest in an established pattern. Holmgren has already made it clear by this point in his regime that truth-telling is going to be his default position. More than his spotty history in choosing personnel, this commitment to honesty is what concerns me most about the future of the Browns.
Think back to last year’s draft. The Browns had the fifth overall pick. They had so many gaping holes on both sides of the ball that they could have taken any number of impact players. But beyond their needs, the factor that made them the biggest wild card in the draft was Alpha Dog, whose defining characteristic as a coach and executive was the pathological commitment to hiding information from practically everyone. When the moment of truth came, the Browns traded down three times in the first round before tapping Alex Mack at #21 overall.
Now, we can debate all day whether trading down was the right move, either in general or for the specific compensation that Alpha received. But it’s indisputable that his unwillingness to show his hand gave him options—options that Holmie the Clown has already bungled away by giving an honest assessment of Clausen.
There’s a huge irony here that no one is talking about yet. That irony is the reaction of “the fans.” (Note: I’m putting this term in quotes to denote the same faceless, unified-in-basic-thought mob that writers like Terry Pluto cater to constantly…also known as ‘people who don’t read this blog’).
From everything I’ve read so far, “the fans” L-O-V-E Holmgren. They love him despite the fact that they don’t necessarily agree with some of the moves his regime has made, such as trading Kam Wimbley or signing Jake Delhomme to starter-level money. They love him enough to admit that they might be wrong about their personal feelings on these moves. In short, they love him enough to give him a chance.
Why do they love him like this? In the case of the quarterbacks, Lombardi suggests that it’s because of Holmgren’s reputation for developing quarterbacks as a coach. I agree with the analysis to some degree, but I also think that it’s only part of the equation. I would argue that the bigger component—bigger because it explains the pass he’s being given for every decision, not just the QBs—is that he’s made a commitment to being up front about his thoughts. To answer questions directly. To say what he means and mean what he says. In other words, a commitment to making “the fans” feel as though they have a window into the process.
Despite the love it’s gotten him from “the fans,” I could not disagree with this policy more strongly.
As we’ve stated over and over again since starting this blog, “the fans” should never be a factor in the front office’s decision-making, regardless of which sport it is we’re talking about. The reason is precisely because they are “the fans,” whereas the people making the decision are professionals whose jobs depend on seeing things that “the fans” don’t—and in many cases, shouldn’t—have access to. Pro sports executive is not a popularly-elected position, after all.
I’m sure there are people out there who would disagree with me on all these points. I know there are elements of “the fans” who would say that I’m not reading the reaction accurately, that they’re really just holding the jury out on Holmgren until they see whether or not this team will show marked improvement.
To me, though, this argument is garbage. Why? Because by the start of training camp last season, “the fans” (and some of the writers) were already calling for Mangini to be burned at the stake. From an executive standpoint, there is very little difference between Holmgren’s circumstance right now and Mangini’s at this time last year. Both replaced prior regimes that were extremely unpopular. Both immediately made some trades of skill players to accumulate draft picks (Kellen Winslow Jr vs. Kam Wimbley—and yes, I intentionally left Body By Quinn out of that comparison). Both made moves to bring in players who were not particularly highly regarded around the league as difference-makers (Abe Elam vs Seneca Wallace).
Yes, Holmgren is given credit for his successes as a head coach. But that’s not the role he’s fulfilling here. And yes, GM Tom Heckert is given credit for loading Philadelphia with talent. But he didn’t have total control there under Andy Reid. So in both cases, these men are occupying positions that are new to them.
I agree that both should be given the benefit of the doubt until the results can be judged in some tangible way. That said, it’s clear to me that the only reason Holmgren is being given this opportunity in the court of public opinion is because he’s ingratiated himself to “the fans” through his truth-serum campaign. I also strongly believe that the very strategy that’s buying him this time is ultimately one that puts the franchise in the worst possible bargaining position when it comes to the draft—a draft which, by all accounts, could be make or break for the Browns’ attempts to claw themselves out of the grave they’ve dug. Though I know he’s not consciously calculating it this way, it’s a flawed game plan: buy “the fans” off now while increasing the likelihood that you piss them off later by fielding a weaker team.
I have no idea how it’s all going to turn out. But if you’re looking to inspire confidence in this writer, Holmie, honesty is most definitely not the best policy.
Eventful day in Cleveland sports. Three different items deserve some attention, so I’ll try to address them all briefly.
PART 1: Cavs / Celtics Bazooka Point
In the words of PTI’s Mike Wilbon, Father Time is undefeated. Every day that seems to be more apparent to people watching the 2009-10 Celtics.
It wasn’t long ago that I heard pundits still talking about Boston winning it all this year. There was a dramatically different tone in the commentary of today’s game. Jeff Van Gundy (to his credit, usually the sole voice of reason on the ABC broadcast) became the first national commentator to declare that the Celtics might not get out of the first round of the playoffs.
This isn’t a news flash to the Mesa team. After all, I’m on record dating back to August about how much of a threat I thought the Celtics were going to be to the Cavs this season. However, I do think it’s interesting that the Celtics’ overall play has gotten to the point that the media’s opinion of them is starting to change. Granted, their weakness is still being pegged as “inconsistency” rather than just plain age, lack of effort, and lack of talent. But considering that the Cavs scored 104 points on the Celts and won by 11 despite missing 17 free throws and only shooting 41%, it seems to me that the writing is on the wall.
Speaking of which…
PART 2: Goodbye Brady Quinn, You Were Never Even Allowed to Test Positive for PEDs
That’s right: as I’m sure you all know by now, the Browns have shipped Body by Quinn to Denver for a fullback named Peyton Hillis, a 2011 6th round pick, and a conditional 2012 pick (you know, the season that we’re not even sure will exist yet).
The trade should come as a surprise to absolutely no one. Once Holmgren traded for Seneca Wallace and then decided it was a good idea to pay Jake Delhomme $7M this year, Inadequinn’s days were numbered.
But what I am still a little surprised by is the return on investment. The package listed above isn’t exactly a treasure trove, especially considering that it seems there were multiple teams who had at least a slight interest in attaining the King of Myoplex’s hypothetical talents. (ESPN’s Chris Mortensen spent several tweets on Saturday talking up Quinn and mentioning strong links to KC and Washington.) Although the more I read about Peyton Hillis, the more it seems that they’re betting on him to be a significant part of the offense as a “true” West Coast pass-catching fullback.
The bottom line, though, is that Quinn’s got a fresh start in Denver lined up for this season. Though there’s always some chance that he could get his act together and doom me to a future of Quinnbots prattling on about the Browns’ front office reopening the wounds of the Elway years by handing the Broncos a franchise QB, I would counter by quoting the one, the only Jon Gruden. As he noted in the closing minutes of the Browns’ Monday night game last season when BBQ chucked two consecutive deep-outs into the opposing bench, “I don’t know much about statistics, but I do know that if you want to play quarterback in the NFL, you gotta be able to throw the ball between those two white lines.”
PART 3: Goodbye Kamerion Wimbley, You Were Never Even Allowed to — Wait, They Traded WHO?!
Unlike the Quinn deal, this one came completely out of nowhere. But the Browns brain trust dealt Kam Wimbley to Oakland for a 2010 3rd round pick, bringing their draft pick total for this season to either 12 or 13.
In looking at some basic stats, the reality is that Wimbley went from 11.0 sacks in his rookie season to an average of ~5 per season from 2007-9, a stretch in which he only missed 1 game. In comparison, mid-season waiver pick-up Matt Roth tallied 4 sacks in 6 games in 2009. Holmgren and Heckert must believe that Roth’s success is sustainable (in concert w/the other linebackers on the roster), thereby making Wimbley expendable. Given the renowned depth of this upcoming draft, a high 3rd rounder should be enough to come away with a player of some impact.
[Note: it was revealed the morning after I wrote this that the Raiders only gave up the later of their two 3rd rounders, #86 overall instead of #70 overall, to get the Browns to dump Wimbley. This revelation obviously makes the trade even more questionable than originally thought.]
This brings us back to the powder keg of potential.
In the span of about three days, it seems as though the average Browns fan has gone from viewing Holmgren as a franchise-changing savior to someone who, at best, should be treated with skepticism and, at worst, may be a complete idiot. The front office has now officially entered into the realm of culpability by (gasp!) making actual decisions, some of which have not exactly been met with loud and immediate applause. The big money signing of a 35 year-old Jake Delhomme, the dumping of BBQ (expected) and Wimbley (unexpected) have altered the team without a doubt. They’ve also helped create a scenario in which the 2010 NFL draft will either change the franchise into a legitimate team, or ensure that for the next decade it stays in the cellar like the deformed son of some backwoods survivalists.
It’ll be interesting to see far the fan base’s good will extends beyond the draft. My guess is that unless Heckert and company come up with a series of picks that’s universally endorsed by every major NFL analyst, people in Cleveland are going to start freaking out immediately. If so, it’s a ridiculous reaction, since no one will know until the actual season whether or not the team has improved. (I’d remind everyone that the great Rey Maualuga—who Mangini was practically tarred and feathered for passing on—ended last season with 1.0 sacks and spent part of this off-season at the Betty Ford center after a drunk-driving incident where he crashed into 2 parked cars and a meter.)
That said, this week’s flurry of activity has started the clock on the Holmgren/Heckert era. We’ll see how long it is before they’re being crucified on the Plain Dealer’s comment boards—and whether or not we have any actual results to judge them on beforehand.
Tonight is arguably one of my least favorite sports nights of the year. Why? Because 45 minutes before I started writing this post, NFL free agency began.
This is not in itself a bad thing. On one level, it’s an improvement. Instead of idle speculation, I get actual information from the NFL sources I follow about roster moves and trades. The Browns could, in theory, start to make some improvements. Most importantly to me, some 21 year-old’s 40 yard dash time at the combine will cease to qualify as news.
The problem for me is what it does to the Cavs.
The regular readers of this blog, I believe, fall into an extreme minority in the Cleveland sports community. Though there are a number of truths I could follow that sentence up with, the one I’m talking about tonight is this: I think we all care tremendously more about the Cavs than the Browns.
Unfortunately, this is not the norm. And it drives me insane.
I understand that for a long time, the Browns were very competitive, very exciting to watch, very much justified as THE team in Cleveland. They were a squad that people felt embodied the spirit of the city. They were full of charismatic stars and great players, like Jim Brown, Bernie Kosar, Clay Matthews, on and on. They were a team that people felt were almost perpetually on the verge of that elusive championship.
But let’s be honest, those days are long gone. Yet the city’s love affair with the Browns still trumps the others, regardless of who’s actually performing and who isn’t. I generally think that the Plain Dealer’s Bud Shaw is a hack, but he hit the nail on the head last spring when he wrote something to the effect of, “The Cavs are heading into the playoffs with the best record in the league, the Indians’ season opener is this coming week, so it’s only natural that most of the reader questions in my inbox are about Brady Quinn.”
The Cavs are on pace to again finish as the #1 seed in the entire league. The Browns haven’t made the playoffs since 2002.
The Cavs boast a guy who may go down as the greatest player in the history of pro basketball. He’s in the midst of having one of the most dominant statistical seasons ever. He may be a unanimous vote for MVP this season. Meanwhile, the Browns don’t even have a legitimate starting quarterback.
Since Dan Gilbert bought the team, the Cavs have built a world-class organization full of character guys committed to winning. They make lop-sidedly positive trades, and with the exception of Larry Hughes, when they decide to spare no expense they usually get a high return on investment. The Browns have been the sports world’s most absurd game of front office musical chairs since their return in 1999. They are likely paying as many people as much money to NOT work for them as they’re paying to the staff currently on the job. And again, they’ve been to the playoffs once in the past decade.
I could go on and on with this stuff. The point is, despite this huge gap in competitiveness and intrigue, the hibernation period is over again. The Browns will now automatically jump to the #1 story position on every Cleveland media outlet. There will be more discussion over the tender given to Matt Roth than to Andy Varejao’s qualifications as Sixth Man of the Year, more interest in pre-draft workouts for cornerbacks than in who the Cavs will be set to play in the second round of the playoffs, more attention paid to any progress in Josh Cribbs’s contract renegotiation than in the return of Z, a guy whose number will hang in the rafters of the Q. It’s as disgraceful as booing the Cavs for trouncing an opponent with efficient offense and stifling defense, but falling short of the Chalupa plateau. (Granted, this hasn’t been as much of a problem this season because of the Cavs’ increased offensive production, but the point stands.)
I don’t even expect this to change if the Cavs do in fact win the NBA title this season. In my most cynical moment, I imagine people emptying off the streets during the the victory parade to mourn upon hearing the news that the Browns cut Brady Quinn—or even worse, LeBron’s re-signing in Cleveland being overshadowed by the Browns’ late acquisition of Troy Smith.
The Cavs are in the midst of another very special season. In a nightmare scenario, this could be the last time we ever see LeBron in a Cleveland uniform. Even if it’s not, he’s now entering his prime with a solid (even excellent), likable supporting cast hungry to bring home the big prize. Let’s all enjoy this. And the next time someone you know brings up Mike Holmgren, for god’s sake, tell them to kill that noise until mid-summer. We’ve got winners in town.
As Dad noted below — in what has to be one of the great extended analogies in sports blog history — PAD lives to piss on another tree.
Only after reacting with major surprise when the news broke did I realize that I should absolutely have seen this coming. Here’s a few reasons why, Terry Pluto-style (that means “with numbers”, not “by giving the Cleveland sports faithful a passionate reach-around at the expense of thoughtful analysis”)…
1) For all his errors and questionable decisions, the team seemed to play hard for PAD and his staff for the entire season, especially once the problematic elements (Braylon, in particular) got voted off the island. Walrus Dog talked a good game about the 4-game win streak not being everything, but as a coach, I think it was hard for him to discount it. As Dad used to tell me in my days of guitar playing, the two most important parts of any song are how you start and how you finish. And PAD undoubtedly finished strong.
2) If nothing else, PAD clearly knows how to work a room. Last year around this time, he wowed Lost In Space to the extent that LIS immediately ended his coaching search and signed PAD to a multi-year deal before any other team in the NFL had even shown any interest in his services. In his previous stop, PAD had so impressed Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum that essentially the same thing happened. So the idea that PAD could come in and work the same magic on Walrus Dog isn’t exactly shocking. My guess is that he can talk as good a game as anyone in the NFL when his job is on the line, and if you haven’t had any previous exposure to him, it’s going to be really easy to get drawn in.
On a side note, I would pay a premium to go back in a time machine and watch Mangini work over some college broads in a bar during his days at Wesleyan. I bet it was a real show.
3A) Keeping PAD for another year is a minimum-risk investment. WD knows that the Browns are still a long way from being truly competitive in the league. Barring the direct intervention of God on the sidelines, they will not be a playoff team next year. Meanwhile, he has a 10 year contract. So even if he completely botches this season, he knows he’s got a long leash before he starts to feel any real heat for his decision-making. The most important thing is that he and whomever he chooses as his GM manage to draft well so that the personnel can be set up for 2011. Which leads us to…
3B) The free agent coaching market this year just plain sucks when we consider who WD really wants as his guy. By all accounts, the real man in control here is Bob “Puppet Master” Lamonte, WD’s trusted agent and legendary salesman. Whether by Puppet Master’s design or by WD’s own will, only a pre-approved guy from either Puppet Master’s client list or WD’s own NFL family tree will fill that spot long-term. Preferably, the candidate will meet both criteria. But the only available candidate who really fits that bill right now is former Lions head coach Marty Mornhinweg, whose cumulative record stands at a sobering 5-27. Not exactly the type of guy you need to run out and hire after you’ve just been named the head of a franchise.
However, if WD waits another year, at least two members of his chosen flock ostensibly become available: John Fox and Jon “Pride of Sandusky” Gruden. The upcoming season is the final one on Fox’s deal with Carolina, and according to SI’s Peter King, Gruden seems to be 100% sincere that he wants to spend at least one more year in the booth for Monday Night Football before slapping on another head coaching visor.
Barring a major Panther’s surge next season, the consensus among sensible sports pundits is that Fox is nothing more than a lame duck. Supposedly the only thing keeping him around for 2010 is the fact that Carolina’s owner absolutely refuses to fire a coach he’s already agreed to pay. There was even some chatter that Fox would end up replacing PAD this year, though that always sounded unlikely to me.
That said, barring a continued climb by PAD’s squad, my bet right now is that Gruden takes the helm in 2011.
To summarize, WD had these choices:
A) Fire a smart, charming guy whose team just won 4 games in a row in a point in the season where most bad teams have already packed it in — and fire him despite that you’ve had almost no time to really evaluate his performance and think it’s fundamentally sacrilegious to only give a head coach one year to try to rebuild a franchise.
B) Keep the coaching staff in place so that you can focus on personnel for the next year and give yourself a year-long sample size to see how PAD reacts to not running the show, knowing full well that two of your disciples will be available to take over on Jan 1, 2011 if PAD isn’t getting results.
When you break it down like that, it seems easy to see why WD decided what he decided. Whether it’s the first in a string of decisions that renews the franchise or the first step on a path to another high-priced disaster remains to be seen. I guess we’ll have to wait and see what we’re talking about at this time next season…which isn’t exactly a phrase that gives me a great deal of confidence. But who am I to argue with an endangered species?
