June 10, 2010
Indians Check-In

I’m guessing this might be the least read post of the week. Just having “Indians” in the header might cause some people to delete the Mesa bookmark from their browser or eliminate our feed from their RSS reader. Well, if you hadn’t realized by now … we’re not here to cooperate.

Also, in case you weren’t watching - and I’m going to assume you weren’t - the Indians beat the Red Sox tonight by a score of 8-7. Yes, Kerry Wood blew a save. Remember when he struck out 20 hitters in his rookie season? One game doesn’t make a career. Neither does one season. Say word, Stephen Strasburg. 

Since the newspapers and most sites publish regular box scores, concentrating on numbers like batting average, ERA, and wins and losses, I thought I’d go through the Indians player by player and measure how they were performing based on OPS+, SO/KK, and HR/9. 

I’ve grouped the Indians into two categories - above average and below average. 

ABOVE AVERAGE HITTERS 

OPS+ (On base + slugging, adjusted for ballpark) of 100 is average

Russell Branyan: 117
Jhonny Peralta: 102
Austin Kearns: 137
Shin-Soo Choo: 139
Travis Hafner: 107
Andy Marte: 113
Shelley Duncan: 131
Anderson Hernandez: 103

BELOW AVERAGE HITTERS

 Lou Marson: 49
Luis Valbuena: 54
Asdrubal Cabrera: 92
Grady Sizemore: 57
Matt LaPorta: 59
Mark Grudzielanek: 70
Trevor Crowe: 86
Jason Donald: 77
Mike Redmond: 48
Michael Brantley: 18

ABOVE AVERAGE PITCHERS IN STRIKE OUTS TO WALKS RATIO

SO/BB ratio of 1.98 is the average so far this season in the AL

Leave this field blank. That’s right. No Indians pitcher has an above average SO/BB ratio. 

Justin Masterson, the Indians worst starting pitcher in the court of public opinion, actually leads the team with a 1.74 SO/BB ratio.

As we know, BB, SO, and HR are more accurate measures of a pitchers’ performance than wins and losses or runs allowed.

Pitchers lose games because of poor run support. They get no decisions because of crappy bullpens. They give up runs (ERA) because of weak defense and the random ways in which the ball often bounces. 

So how do the Indians’ pitchers fare in HR/9? 

ABOVE AVERAGE PITCHERS IN HOME RUNS ALLOWED PER 9 INNINGS

HR/9 of 1.0 is the average so far this season in the AL

Aaron Laffey: 0
Rafael Perez: 0
Jensen Lewis: 0
Jamey Wright: .4
Fausto Carmona: .6 
Justin Masterson: .7

I’ll even throw Mitch Talbot in to the mix because he was at 1.0 before tonight, and he didn’t give up any homers in 4.0 innings. 

BELOW AVERAGE PITCHERS IN STRIKE OUTS TO WALKS RATIO

Justin Masterson: 1.74
Chris Perez: 1.70
Hector Ambriz: 1.63
Tony Sipp: 1.47
Jake Westbrook: 1.41
David Huff: 1.33
Fausto Carmona: 1.19
Mitch Talbot: 1.19
Kerry Wood: 1.14
Jensen Lewis: 1.09
Rafael Perez: 1.00
Jamey Wright: 1.00
Aaron Laffey: 0.85 
Joe Smith: 0.83 

BELOW AVERAGE PITCHERS IN HOME RUNS ALLOWED PER 9 INNINGS

Joe Smith: 2.6 
Tony Sipp: 2.2
David Huff: 1.5
Chris Perez: 1.3
Jake Westbrook: 1.1 
Hector Ambriz: 1.0
Kerry Wood: 1.0 (gave up a HR tonight; will be lower tomorrow morning)

What’s the takeaway from all of this? I had been getting the impression, without watching a ton of games, that the Indians hitting had been killing them while the pitching had been better than suggested.

These numbers would seem to imply that the opposite is true instead. 

9:56pm  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/685941348/indianscheckin
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FILED UNDER: Indians 
June 1, 2010
The Fair Weather Fan

As Tim and I have been talking about how to handle the site this summer, in the wake of an Indians team that has almost nothing interesting going on, a Cavaliers offseason that will likely be dramatic and chaotic (but also only sporadically insight worthy), and a Browns preseason that, truthfully, seems entirely unappealing right now, two days before the start of the NBA Finals, I got to thinking about the concept of a fair weather fan.

Not being a fair weather fan is a trait I’ve held dear to my heart over the years. If I dig deep enough, I could probably provide physical evidence of $10 tickets I bought to watch Ricky Davis and Darius Miles run up and down the floor in Gund Arena. Dad can attest to several bucks spent watching the lousy Indians teams that inspired Major League in Municipal Stadium, and several more dollars blown in the 2000’s on tickets that allowed us to sit in the ass crack of Jacobs’ Field (Section 519). Tim will tell you about all the times we woke up in LA, still drunk from the night before, to wander to a bar by 10 AM so we could see a shitty Browns most likely lose.

The Cleveland pro sports teams have been my way of staying connected to my family and my hometown, as I’ve traveled outside of the state. Abandoning them, I’ve always thought, would be a travesty. 

I’m not so sure anymore. 

When it comes to making decisions on how to spend my disposable income and use my free time, I now have a lot of options. More than when I was a kid, and even more than when I was in high school and college. The internet has made more music, more movies, and more books available to me. My advancing age has opened the doors to recreational drinking, concerts, and bars. As a freelancer who only makes money if I’m producing content, I have a ton of work to do most days. I could even try to find a girlfriend or a wife (although that would probably take a Herculean effort). 

In short, there’s a lot of life to live, and I’m not so sure that it makes sense to use all, most, or some of my free time watching the Indians lose 100 baseball games or Brady Quinn throw deep balls out of bounds to try to prove a point about how I’m loyal to the city of Cleveland and to its sports teams. 

Of course, if I’m watching these bad games played by bad teams alongside good people then that changes things. Let’s say the hypothetical girlfriend I mentioned earlier is a big baseball fan … then, yes, I’d go to Indians games with her. Tim and I watched plenty of terrible basketball games together this past season, and I’d do it all over again. The communal experience that sporting events can create counts for a whole lot. 

But rooting for the Indians and the Browns above all else in life? Living and dying on every pitch, every snap, every misplayed ball and batter left on base, every fumble and every occurrence of poor gap integrity … I think my time doing that is slowly coming to an end. I’ve got movies to write, people to meet, and life to live, after all. 

Just trust that I’ll be there when there’s something compelling - or even potentially compelling - going on in Cleveland sports. Which, because its sports, which are always home to maximum drama, means I’ll be there a whole f’ing lot. 

Try to keep all of this in mind as the Cavaliers offseason plays out (you had to know it was coming). 

1:00am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/652656996/the-fair-weather-fan
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FILED UNDER: Cavs Indians Browns fandom 
March 30, 2010
Why Is There So Much Pessimism About the Indians?

Don’t tell me that all of the pessimism about the Cleveland Indians’ 2010 season has anything to do with the archaic and racist Chief Wahoo logo - that would at least make sense. Unfortunately, from what I can gather, the “no hope” chants surrounding the team have a little to do with the players currently on the roster, a little to do with negative attitudes, and a lot to do with ownership. 

In a series of posts surrounding the Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez deals last summer, we outlined the basic reasons for why we supported the actions taken by now outgoing General Manager Mark Shapiro and, no doubt, signed off on by owner Larry Dolan. Essentially, the team hadn’t won with Lee or Martinez. Prospects were more important for the future. This is baseball, after all, where one player can only make so much of a difference (read: not that much). 

Even if you didn’t agree with trading Lee and Martinez (or Ryan Garko or Mark DeRosa, for that matter), and you’re pissed at ownership as a result, is that a good reason to not root for the Indians?

This is actually a legitimate question with a fairly complex answer. Do sports fans root for teams? Do we root for players? Do we root for organizations and owners? Do we root for cities? Which one is it?

Not everyone is the same. There are plenty of people around the country, for example, who now root for the Cavaliers because LeBron James is on the team. If he leaves as a free agent in the summer, I suspect most of them will become fans of whichever team he moves on to. Some of us, like LeBron himself, root for whichever teams are on TV and winning the most often while we’re growing up. Others root for the teams that their parents root for, no matter where they live now. 

When sports and sports fans are at their best, they become a metaphor for entire cities and sometimes even regions. This has happened in places like New Orleans, which saw the Saints win the Super Bowl in February. It could happen in Cleveland if the Cavs win the NBA Finals in June. In these cases, a sporting event can represent and inspire the hopes of a tremendous mass of people.

In fact, if the Cavs do take home the Larry O’Brien trophy this summer, Mayor Jackson better be ready to mobilize this energy in positive ways.

Excuse the brief aside, but my point is that people root for teams for a lot of different reasons … but I’m pretty sure that nobody - except for friends and relatives - roots for a team because of its owner. And if you are the friend or relative of an owner, you’re going to root for that owner no matter what he does.

Which suggests that if you’re still a baseball fan - and I know sometimes the sport makes it hard - and you have some connection to the Indians and/or the city of Cleveland that has nothing to do with Martinez, Lee, DeRosa, Garko, or, I don’t know, Carl Pavano, then you should remain a fan of the Cleveland Indians for the 2010 season.

Rooting for a team is one thing though, and being optimistic about them is another. So let’s talk about that pessimism. Most of what I’ve heard so far has to do with the pitching staff. This is actually somewhat of a positive development because it actually makes some sense. The Indians’ offense last season was above average in adjusted OPS, only three points below the second place Angels. In the Central Division, they were tied for first.

Since the team has only lost Ben Francisco, Kelly Shoppach, and Garko from that starting lineup, Grady Sizemore isn’t hurt, Travis Hafner is getting healthier, and Matt LaPorta, and Michael Bradley are taking over for Garko and Francisco, I would argue that the Indians actually have a very good chance to be even better offensively this season.

But then there’s the pitching staff that most local journalists love to hate. Why is this? The Indians’ number one starter, Jake Westbrook, is coming off of Tommy John surgery. Fausto Carmona was terrible last year (1.13 SO/BB | 1.1 HR/9). Justin Masterson can’t get lefties out, and the rest of the starters (Mitch Talbot and probably David Huff) are relatively unproven.

The bullpen is a similar story. Kerry Wood wasn’t great last year, but he’s hurt now anyway. Rafael Perez had a down season. Jensen Lewis had a down season. Chris Perez doesn’t have a lot of experience, etc. etc. 

In other words, the pitching staff is unproven and inconsistent. 

Okay, that’s fine. It’s a rational argument. But the only thing it really means is that there’s a chance the pitching staff could suck. 

But there’s also a chance the pitching staff could be awesome. 

Carmona has been great in the past. Westbrook has been very good. Rafael Perez has been great. Chris Perez was pretty damn good last year (10.3 SO/9). Masterson is young (25). He can get better at getting left-handed hitters out and is already very good at striking out righties. Huff, despite general mediocrity, did lead the Indians in victories in 2009…

What I’m saying is that there are just as many reasons to be optimistic about the Indians’ pitching staff as there are reasons to be pessimistic. 

I believe that if you’re a fan of the Indians or the city of Cleveland, you should choose optimism.

People might say you’re a fool. It’s okay. The first guy to believe in something always is. But these kinds of “fools” are what Northeast Ohio needs right now.

Be a fool. It’s the better option.

6:32pm  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/485490838/why-is-there-so-much-pessimism-about-the-indians
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FILED UNDER: Indians Optimism 
March 25, 2010
Mauer Signing Makes Indians Look Bad?

I’ve been waiting for someone to write this article. Colin Wilson of the Lorain Morning Journal argues that the Twins’ signing of Joe Mauer to a huge $184M deal is indicative of how cheap the Indians are. 

I would remind Colin that the Twins are opening a new stadium this year. 

6:10am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/472468267/mauer-signing-makes-indians-look-bad
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FILED UNDER: Indians Twins Joe Mauer 
February 25, 2010
Yes, I'm Actually Going To Do It ...

My first Indians post of 2010, in which it’s reported that Russell Branyan will be the starting first baseman, Matt LaPorta will be in left field, and Michael Brantley, well, he may be in the minors.

5:45am  |   URL: http://www.josemesaisdead.com/post/411151766/yes-im-actually-going-to-do-it
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FILED UNDER: Indians Russell Branyan Michael Brantley Matt LaPorta