In the Cavs’ front office tonight, one simple question sums up the past week and a half of work on their coaching search and their increasingly futile efforts (or so it seems) to re-sign LeBron.
“Now what?”
As everyone knows by now, Tom Izzo announced at a press conference on Tuesday evening that he has rejected Reptile’s “framework” offer of $30MM over 5 years, unlimited use of a private jet, “on demand” baths in liquid platinum, a swimming pool filled with gold coins a la Scrooge McDuck, and who knows what else, to coach the Cavs.
CBS Sports’s Ken Berger wrote earlier that LeBron has now effectively locked the entire franchise into a cryogenic chamber until at least July 1. He argues that no “name” coaching candidate (and potentially no coaching candidate period) will ink a deal with the team until James’s status is known. Furthermore, even the team’s attempts to get back into next Thursday’s draft are handcuffed by not knowing for sure which players should be traded away, given that the centerpiece of the team is a question mark.
This last notion is one that I want to focus on—the reason being that I don’t totally buy it. (Of course, this may be because I have the luxury of being a fan / observer with no consequences attached to my thinking, aside from occasionally embarrassing myself in print on this blog. But hear me out.)
Consider the Cavs’ current roster for next year for a moment. Done? Good. Here’s my question: apart from Andy, should anyone on that list really be untouchable?
To me, the answer is a resounding “no.”
This is the cold truth that the organization has to face up to: the Cavs have to proceed as if they’re in a rebuilding mode, regardless of whether or not James comes back. Why? Because either way, it doesn’t change the fact that the current roster will still be deficient on a foundational level. Mo Williams will still be an undersized, streaky, score-first point guard who collapses in the playoffs. Antawn Jamison will still be a supposed stretch 4 who doesn’t shoot well from midrange or long range and acts as a complete sieve on D. Delonte West will be traded regardless of James’s final decision. Boobie Gibson will still be an awesome catch-and-shoot player who brings little else to the table. Glitch will still be, well, Glitch—although his continued flubs have me on the verge of upgrading him to something like Permanent Fatal Error.
The rest of the roster consists of two categories: capable role players (Moon*, Parker, Powe) whose value from a productivity standpoint is high in relation to their salary, and a couple of young guys who *could* grow into starters or sixth men (Danny Green and Sebastian Telfair) if they continue to develop.
(*Note: As we’ve stated over and over again, Moon’s advanced stats really suggest that he should be a starter, or should play starter’s minutes. But I’m lumping him in the ‘role player’ category because that’s the perception of him around the league, as far as I can tell.)
In fact, it’s arguable that the team’s most flawed players happen to double as their worst contracts. I would contend that Jamison has more value from a production standpoint than Mo, but I’m not concerned about comparisons. Antawn’s absolute value is somewhere far south of $28.4MM over the next 2 years, and that’s the issue. In either case, the player in question should still have value to other teams in the league. Dealing either (or preferably both) of them for some mixture of cap relief, draft picks, or younger players should really be a no-brainer.
This leads me to the other part of the equation: with or without James, the only sound solution for the Cavs is to get younger. Regardless of whether he was hamstrung from above or below, the Danny Ferry era proved conclusively that as executed, the “win now with veterans” strategy did not work. Repeating it would be disastrous. Finding lower-level veterans to fill in around your young assets never appears to be that difficult, and the difference in marginal value between a “really good” veteran versus an “average” or “decent” veteran is much smaller than the gulf between having a promising young core versus, well, not.
Finally, because of LeBron’s ability to play multiple positions, it’s pretty hard to argue that the Cavs wouldn’t be able to figure out where to upgrade. Although his ability to switch between playing 3 and 4 leaves the forward spots open to some potential redundancy if the Cavs were to try to upgrade there, both guard spots are gaping holes, and finding a legitimate center—i.e. one capable of guarding Da-Wight, which Andy can’t do—would also be a pretty clear victory.
Look, even though I now think he’s an asshole, a liar, and a complete prima donna, LeBron James is really, really good at basketball. More to the point, he’s both extremely versatile and phenomenal at elevating the play of his teammates. If Chris Grant and Reptile do the reconstruction right, it’s entirely plausible that the Cavs would still be a playoff team next season and a contender again another year or two after that. LeBron’s own play and The James Effect on his teammates are that huge.
So if they’re thinking about things clearly, the front office has to recognize:
1) The Cavs can’t win a championship with Mo Williams and Antawn Jamison as key components of their core
2) Assuming the right moves are made, trading those players now lowers the team’s ceiling for the next season or two but raises it dramatically after that
3) While some of the other players on the team are a good or great value for the money, it’s bad business to hold onto them if it kills a deal for a potential young star (even if it’s in the form of a high draft pick)
4) There are at least 3 positions (1, 2, and 5) where the Cavs could use a serious upgrade
5) All of the above are true with or without LeBron
Clearly, I’m simplifying here. There are other considerations, such as which type of players will be benefited by the new coach’s system. But Berger is right: it’s now a foregone conclusion that the coaching search won’t be concluded until July. With the draft now 8 days away, it’s potentially disastrous for the front office to freeze on trades until that same period. (Realistically, a good coach will figure out how to best utilize the abilities of the roster he’s given anyway. He can then work with the front office in the future to refine it.)
Reptile and Chris Grant may not have a clear view of LeBron’s plans, but there is enough else on their roster that’s definite enough to construct a strategy. Whether or not they choose to be imprisoned by James’s chess game is ultimately on them.
-T
