With two days remaining until free agents can officially sign contracts, I wanted to take stock of the harsh realities that are starting to pile up for LeBron-hopeful franchises—in particular, the Chicago Bulls.
Since last week, the prevailing perception among pundits is that there’s been a huge momentum shift in terms of LeBron’s expected destination. A big part of this seems to have to do with the Shakespearean power struggle playing out behind the scenes in James’s camp. Windhorst tweeted tonight that, according to his sources, there is indeed a rift between LRMR and World Wide Wes, with Wes essentially being pushed out of the process by Maverick Carter. This is significant because Wes had allegedly been telling anyone who would listen since the playoffs ended that LBJ to CHI was a done deal.
Admittedly, the Bulls are still very much in the picture. But it seems to be down to Chicago vs. Cleveland in James’s head. However, some of the reasons that Chicago’s favored status has taken a hit act as a great reminder of how much more complex free agency and the business of the NBA is than what most of the talking heads have made it out to be.
1) Resistance from the Pre-Existing Star
Again according to Windhorst’s Twitter feed, one of the factors working against Chicago is that Derrick Rose hasn’t exactly welcomed the idea of LeBron coming to town. The lesser elements of the NBA analyst community are likely baffled by this. Why would Rose, a budding superstar, not welcome the opportunity to play with arguably the best player in the league in his prime?
To me, though, it makes perfect sense—especially when you factor in that one of the main reasons for Rose’s resistance comes not from Rose directly, but from his agent.
As we’ve pointed out over and over again on Mesa, the reality is that LeBron and Derrick Rose aren’t particularly complementary players. Both of them need the ball in their hands to be their best, both of them operate primarily on the perimeter with frequent cuts to the basket, both of them have high usage rates (27.2% for Rose last season, compared to 33.5% for LeBron), meaning they were the primary decision-makers on how their teams’ possessions ended. In short, they both excel, but having both is redundant and possibly harmful to each.
Now, either Derrick Rose has recognized this, or else his agent—who also happens to represent Joe Johnson—pointed it out to him. Shockingly, in “Rose’s” opinion, Johnson would have been the best max contract fit for the Bulls. In theory, i.e. if Joe Johnson deserved max money, I would agree. He’d provide another offensive weapon who was a three point threat (37.3% career), and would happily cede leadership and responsibility to Rose and Noah.
My theory is that Rose’s agent also happens to realize that if LeBron—a very similar player in many regards to his own client—comes to town, there’s a significant chance that Rose’s numbers take a hit. In addition, he also takes a demotion, in a way, because LeBron (as the face of the NBA) automatically assumes the leadership role. Which would in turn endanger the probability that Rose receives a max extension offer the summer after next. If he’s a good agent (and it’s Arn Tellem, so history and reputation say that he is), his responsibility is to look out for his client’s best financial interests. In this case, the best case scenario would’ve been for Johnson to join Rose. The runner-up scenario is that Rose continues to be allowed to do what he’s done the past two seasons. And the only way that happens is if LeBron stays away.
Does it makes sense? Absolutely. Is it something that anyone in the pundit-at-large community would’ve mentioned in talking about what a great fit Chicago is for LeBron? Never.
2) Disconnect Between Long-Term and Short-Term Pieces
Mike mentioned this earlier, but as important as the 2010-11 season is, LeBron’s next contract will (theoretically) be for 5 or 6 years (depending on if he re-signs with the Cavs or manages to swing a sign and trade). The most attractive personnel reasons for James to go to Chicago are, of course, Rose and Noah. Rose remains on his rookie contract through the 2012-13 season. That would cover either 50% or 60% of James’s commitment. Not bad.
However, Joakim Noah’s contract at present only runs through the 2011-12 season. He becomes eligible for an extension after this upcoming season. That would cover only 30% or 40% of James’s commitment. Not as encouraging—especially when you take into account that Bulls’ ownership has consistently tried to avoid paying the luxury tax.
Assuming something resembling the current CBA (e.g. no hard cap, no salary rollbacks) is adopted in 2011, Chicago will have to max or near-max a different player for each of the next three seasons: LeBron this year, Noah (via extension) in the summer of 2011, and Rose (via extension) in the summer of 2012. And for anyone thinking that Noah will not demand a huge deal, I would point out that Amir Johnson and Darko just cashed in for a combined $54MM over the next 5 years. If you think some team like the Knicks won’t go balls-out for a legitimate young center like Noah, you’re probably wandering around the desert in a peyote-induced haze.
For a recent example of how this type of domino-effect salary play works, look at Orlando. In the span of two seasons, they paid Rashard Lewis a max contract in free agency, then max-extended Da-wight and gave a sizable extension to Jameer Nelson shortly thereafter. The Magic are committed to roughly $44MM in salary between those three players for next season, with the annual amount heading north for each player through 2012-13. Their team payroll will hover above $80MM in 2009-10 and 2010-11. Admittedly, this is partially because Otis Smith ran buckwild with his owner’s checkbook and is paying a back-up center about $6.5MM / year, not to mention $35MM total over the next two for Vince Carter. But the three deals I mentioned at the top still make up the majority of that $80+MM figure.
The bottom line is that every good roster is on a time line. At a certain point, re-signing everyone becomes untenable. (With both Kevin Durant and Jeff Green eligible for extensions this summer, Oklahoma City is rapidly approaching this point, and it will be interesting to see how they handle it.) Unless your owner is willing to go into the tax, that is. Jerry Reinsdorf has resisted that strategy, and that historical resistance may be one of the aspects giving LeBron pause about a move to the red and black.
3) The Rest of the Roster
The other problem that follows from the point above is that even if ownership pays serious scrill to keep the core together, you of course still need complementary pieces to create a championship team. We’ve discussed this point ad nauseam in regard to teams (King Slickback, I’m looking in your direction) gutting their rosters to clear cap space. In honor of the fact that we’re bringing this up again, find the nearest dead horse and whale away.
Again, per Windhorst, LeBron is wary of the fact that the Bulls currently have no shooters whatsoever on their roster. Chicago was 28th in the league in 3P% last season (33%), and just traded away one of the only guys trying to pull them up in that category (Kirk Hinrich at 37.9% career), so it stands to reason that they’re going to decline even further this upcoming season unless they can get some marksmen through free agency.
However, since Chicago can’t make any complementary moves until they know if James will actually sign with them, there’s a heavy risk involved for James. Though we won’t know the cap figure until Thursday, the Bulls should have around $13MM to spend after LeBron hypothetically signs with them. Can they split that money up and still get more than one quality shooter? Or do they just go all in and try to use most of that chunk to try to lure Ray Allen under the assumption that one elite 3P bomber will be enough? Or do they botch the entire exercise, and then LeBron is stuck on a team where no one can reliably hit a three pointer?
Say what you will about the Cavs’ roster, but as Mike pointed out on our Twitter feed tonight, the front office recognized that the team needed to surround LeBron with dunkers, rebounders, and especially shooters. If Chicago doesn’t seem equipped to do the same thing, the star power of Rose and Noah loses some of its luster. And the “sure thing” that was a move to Chicago becomes an even bigger roll of the dice than when Uncle Wes was removed from the cockpit.
The point is that almost no one in the mainstream sports world was raising these issues at the start of the free agency period. But now, as it nears decision time, the less attractive elements of the equation seem to be looming larger for LeBron. Whether or not they’re literally a deal-breaker, we apparently won’t know until Thursday. But I assure you that if a lack of role players is part of what sinks the Bulls’ hopes for LeBron, I will laugh until I’m doubled over. Here’s hoping for stomach pain.
-T
